Potential unrest at home and abroad puts the US in an uneasy position

The Hill

10 hours ago

Israel's strikes against Iran, launched in the early hours on Friday, followed up by attacks against Iran's natural gas facilities, raise an important question: What could go wrong?
The consequences of these attacks, which could also cripple Iranian air and other defenses, and which Israel says will continue until Iran cannot build a nuclear weapon over the short and possibly medium term, will be profound and unpredictable. Whether this escalates further and leads to the overthrow of the ayatollahs or a negotiation is among the possible outcomes.
As with Ukraine's Operation Spider Web, these attacks demonstrate operational brilliance of the first order. One wonders if the U.S. and NATO could show this level of innovative thinking and planning.
Still, the conflict in Gaza is burning. And the war in Ukraine shows no sign of abating — quite the opposite, given the likelihood of an ongoing Russian summer offensive.
Events at home are equally volatile and unpredictable. The National Guard and a battalion of U.S. Marines have been deployed to deal with the protests and violence taking place in Los Angeles over immigration policies and the role of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency in arresting migrants accused of illegally entering the U.S. and who, in some cases, have committed serious crimes.
While this violence could spread across the nation, the parade in Washington marking the Army's 250th birthday, as well as President Trump's 79th birthday, was relatively protest-free, despite the 'No Kings' protests taking place in several cities the same day.
However, what transpired in 2020 with the unrest following protests of the murder of George Floyd, or even the protests that sprang up during the Vietnam War, could happen again, putting the country in disarray. That chaos could be intensified as both parties see it in their interest to take opposing stands on immigration, making a bad situation much worse.
Where is this headed? History bears some lessons.
In a little-publicized story so far, the Pentagon is reviewing the AUKUS submarine deal signed between Australia, the United Kingdom and the U.S. to provide five to eight nuclear submarines to the latter. Should the Pentagon recommend that the administration modify or revoke the agreement, it will surely be another arrow into the heart of American credibility and reliance as an ally.
Some six-plus decades ago, the U.S. backed out of the Skybolt program with the U.K. The aim was to build an air-launched intercontinental ballistic missile. The U.K. had structured its nuclear posture around Skybolt. Canceling the program was another reason why being a friend of the U.S. in many ways is worse than being an enemy, who cannot be disappointed in this way.
The AUKUS review coming weeks before the NATO Hague Summit with heads of government was far from ideal, given Trump's uneven behavior towards the alliance and America's commitment to it.
The administration is pushing for NATO members to increase defense spending to 3.5 percent of GDP, with an additional 1.5 percent committed to enhancing related infrastructure, including a defense industrial base. That figure is probably unobtainable for most members, including the U.S., which spends about 3.2 percent of its GDP on defense.
And it is far from clear how more defense spending by individual NATO members will strengthen the military power of the alliance as a whole, absent a cogent strategy and plan for making the most effective use of these increases.
Since World War II, the U.S. has confronted simultaneous crises at home and abroad. Protests over Vietnam and civil rights enforcement during the 1950s and 60s turned violent. The U.S. has fought at least four major wars and one major campaign since World War II — Korea, Vietnam, Iraq twice and Afghanistan. The record has not been a good one.
Many Americans see similarities between today and the late 1850s prior to the Civil War, and 1914 before World War I, in terms of extreme political tensions. History may never repeat or rhyme. However, rarely have so many potential dangers been present at the same time.
The U.S. is facing a crisis point on whether the current government and political process is capable of coping with or anticipating one or more potential hot spots exploding at home and abroad, especially if protests over ICE and immigration spread across the nation and one of the overseas conflicts escalates uncontrollably.
At this stage, a great deal could go very wrong.
Harlan Ullman, Ph.D., is UPI's Arnaud deBorchgrave Distinguished Columnist, a senior advisor at Washington, D.C.'s Atlantic Council, the chairman of two private companies and the principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. He and David Richards are authors of a forthcoming book on preventing strategic catastrophe.