Indus Water Treaty: Can India really turn off the Indus tap for Pakistan?

Time of India

24-04-2025

Understanding the Indus Waters Treaty
Live Events
What India plans to do next
The dams that matter
Kishanganga (Jhelum): Operational since 2018, it diverts water from a tributary that feeds Pakistan's Mangla Dam.
Ratle (Chenab): Still under construction, but its storage could further reduce water to Pakistani Punjab.
Shahpurkandi (Ravi): Now redirects Ravi waters entirely to Indian use.
Ujh (Ravi): Planned project that may reduce downstream flows even more.
Why the tap can't be shut yet
Pakistan's diplomatic options are narrow
India's treaty-backed entitlements
How this hits Pakistan's backbone
Agricultural Shock: With over 80% of crops reliant on Indus water, yield drops in wheat, rice, and cotton could hurt GDP and food security.
Groundwater Strain: Farmers may tap deeper aquifers, worsening land salinisation and aquifer depletion.
Power Crisis: The Tarbela and Mangla dams, which supply nearly 30% of Pakistan's power, could produce less as inflows fall.
Soil Degradation: About 43% of arable land is already salinity-affected—less water could lead to long-term desertification.
Inter-provincial Tensions: Reduced flows may spark disputes under the 1991 Water Accord.
Export Setbacks: Crops like Basmati rice and textiles could be hit, affecting foreign reserves and weakening the rupee.
Forced Crop Shifts: Pakistan may need to adopt water-efficient crops like millets. But training, irrigation infrastructure, and policy support are lacking.
A political weapon, not a floodgate — Yet
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India's decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has raised fears of a looming water crisis in Pakistan . Following the deadly Pahalgam terror attack, New Delhi's move marks a clear shift in its long-standing policy of separating water-sharing from conflict. Now, that firewall appears to be crumbling.The treaty, signed in 1960, was a rare example of sustained cooperation between two hostile neighbours. But with tensions spiking, India is preparing to assert greater control over the Indus system—potentially reducing Pakistan's access to critical river flows.'The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 will be held in abeyance with immediate effect, until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism,' Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said on Wednesday evening.The Indus Waters Treaty divides the six rivers of the Indus system between the two nations. India has full rights over the eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. Pakistan receives water from the three western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—which flow downstream from Indian territory.At the centre of the latest strain between India and Pakistan are two Indian hydroelectric plants: Kishenganga (330 MW), which began operations in 2018, and Ratle (850 MW), which is still being built. Both are located in Jammu and Kashmir on tributaries of the Jhelum and Chenab rivers. These rivers are part of the three 'Western Rivers' under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), which was signed in 1960 with the World Bank as a broker.Though the World Bank is not funding either project, Pakistan has raised objections, alleging that both breach the treaty's conditions. Being the lower riparian country, Pakistan depends heavily on these western rivers. In fact, nearly 80% of its irrigated agriculture relies on them. The treaty allowed India to build 'run-of-the-river' hydroelectric projects without altering flows. Reservoir dams, however, were restricted.That limit is now effectively lifted.With the treaty suspended, India is likely to fast-track its hydroelectric ambitions. Projects such as the operational 330 MW Kishanganga Dam on the Jhelum and the 850 MW under-construction Ratle Dam on the Chenab could be redesigned to store more water—something Pakistan has strongly opposed in the past.India is also expected to prioritise usage of eastern rivers. The Shahpurkandi Dam on the Ravi, completed in 2024, already redirects flows into Indian territory. The planned Ujh Dam on the same river could further reduce surplus water entering Pakistan. According to estimates, India lets about 9.3 billion cubic metres flow into Pakistan from its share—something New Delhi may now seek to stop.India is likely to halt regulated releases from hydro projects and suspend data sharing with Pakistan. Future inspections of Indian hydropower facilities by Pakistani officials may also be blocked.As one user on X wrote, 'This is not about turning off the water tomorrow... The tap is still open. But the restraint behind it has been lifted.'Despite the bold move, India currently lacks the infrastructure to fully divert or block the western rivers. 'Pakistan will die out of thirst', 'Pakistan will face a severe water crisis this summer', 'Pakistan will be left high and dry'—these were some of the reactions on social media.But these remain psychological pressures for now.Building large dams on the Indus, Jhelum, or Chenab would take years—possibly a decade—due to the ecological and financial costs. Current projects are run-of-the-river in nature and can only influence timing, not volume.Still, the message is clear.Islamabad could appeal to the International Court of Justice or the Permanent Court of Arbitration. However, with India disputing their jurisdiction under the suspended treaty framework, legal remedies are uncertain.Pakistan may seek intervention from the World Bank, the original treaty broker, or look to allies like China and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. Diplomatic escalation or trade retaliation are options, but Pakistan's fragile economy limits room for manoeuvre.Despite Pakistan's reliance, the treaty grants India rights too. It allows the development of irrigation over 13.4 lakh acres in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. At present, less than half that area—6.42 lakh acres—is actually irrigated.India is also permitted to store up to 3.60 million acre-feet of water from the Western Rivers. But in practice, such infrastructure is minimal, leaving these entitlements largely unutilised. Strategically, however, India's right to build run-of-the-river dams offers it leverage. While not designed to block water entirely, these dams can temporarily delay flows—something that can be used as pressure during diplomatic flashpoints.Pakistan draws about 80 per cent of its freshwater supply from the Indus river system. Of the 16.8 crore acre-feet (CAF) of water flowing annually, only around 3.3 CAF is allocated to India. India already uses over 90 per cent of its share, while Pakistan remains highly dependent on the remaining water.This dependence runs deep. The rivers support 23 per cent of Pakistan's agricultural water use and sustain roughly 68 per cent of its rural population. Disruptions could cut into crop production, elevate food insecurity, and worsen existing economic instability. Rural communities and provinces such as Punjab and Sindh would be hardest hit.Pakistan's storage capacity compounds its vulnerability. Dams like Mangla and Tarbela can store just 14.4 million acre-feet—only 10 per cent of its annual entitlement. In dry years or during seasonal shifts, Pakistan has little cushion to manage shortages.The stakes are high for Pakistan. Its agriculture, power, and rural livelihoods hang in the balance.India's decision to suspend the IWT is less about immediate change and more about long-term leverage. It is, in essence, a geopolitical signal.By lifting treaty constraints, New Delhi has gained strategic flexibility. But for now, water will keep flowing across the border—though the rules around it are clearly changing.In Pakistan's own words, the fear is growing. But the flow? For now, it's still there.