Americans Are Dying Younger: Will RFK Jr.'s Policies Help Or Harm?

Forbes

01-04-2025

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. speaks at the Libertarian National Convention in Washington, DC. (Photo by ... More Kevin Dietsch, Getty Images)
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has never been afraid to challenge conventional wisdom— sometimes acting in alignment with the best science, other times rejecting it.
Now, as Secretary of Health and Human Services, Kennedy has significant influence over national healthcare policy. In this role, many will judge his success by whether he can reverse the country's most troubling metric: an alarming decline in life expectancy.
For decades, the United States has spent more on healthcare than any other nation, yet outcomes continue to lag global peers. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, Americans now live four years less than citizens of other high-income countries. The U.S. premature death rate is nearly twice that of comparable nations, and the gap has only widened in recent years.
Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker
KFF data points to three primary drivers, accounting for 68% of the gap:
Of course, Kennedy can't address every factor contributing to premature death. Many 'social determinants of health' (think: income, education and housing), would require sweeping reforms across multiple government agencies, well beyond the scope of HHS.
But when it comes to direct medical interventions, Kennedy can enact meaningful reforms, ones that could significantly improve life expectancy and the health of millions. Let's examine each, starting with the biggest driver.
The single largest contributor to America's lagging life expectancy is chronic disease.
According to the KFF report, 'About a third (32%) of the difference in premature death between the U.S. and similar countries is due to deaths from cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and chronic kidney diseases.'
Compared to citizens of peer nations, Americans are 2.5 times more likely to die from diabetes and nearly 4 times more likely to die from kidney disease. Preventable cardiovascular disease remains the nation's leading cause of death.
The problem isn't a lack of medical knowledge, but system-wide failures in prevention and management. According to CDC data, if every clinician and health system delivered care at the level of today's top performers, the nation could prevent 30–50% of the complications tied to chronic conditions, including heart attacks, strokes, cancer and kidney failure.
The Opportunity for RFK Jr.: Kennedy has repeatedly emphasized the urgency of addressing chronic disease in America. During his Senate confirmation hearing, he stated, 'We need to refocus [on chronic disease] if we are going to save our country. This is an existential crisis.'
His Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) initiative promotes shifting the healthcare system's focus from disease intervention to prevention. This plan encourages community-based programs that improve diet, increase physical activity and expand preventive screenings.
RFK has also advocated for expanding primary care access, a move that's well founded by research. Adding 10 primary care doctors to a community increases life expectancy 2.5 times more than adding 10 specialists, according to a Harvard-Stanford study. Yet, the U.S. continues to overproduce specialists while failing to train enough primary care physicians.
Kennedy has also signaled interest in reforming medical care reimbursements. Today's fee-for-service model rewards quantity of care over quality, encouraging more procedures rather than better health. To fix this, Kennedy has proposed sweeping changes to Medicare's payment structure, including shifting toward value-based models and transferring responsibility for setting Medicare reimbursement rates from the American Medical Association to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. This move would likely help narrow the income gap between primary care physicians and specialists.
Approximately 12% of the U.S. life expectancy gap can be attributed to:
Collectively, these 'deaths of despair' account for 160,000 preventable deaths annually, disproportionately affecting rural and underserved communities, where access to mental health care and addiction treatment is more limited.
While some clinicians see these deaths as primarily societal, the DEA considers substance use disorder treatment a core medical responsibility. Physicians are now required to complete eight hours of training to identify and manage these disorders as part of their licensing.
The Opportunity for RFK Jr.: Kennedy has long been outspoken about addiction treatment reform, shaped in part by his own personal struggles. He has criticized pharmaceutical companies for fueling the opioid epidemic and vowed to take action against predatory business practices in addiction treatment.
During his Senate confirmation hearing, Kennedy emphasized the role of technology in expanding healthcare access, particularly in underserved areas. He has advocated for the use of general artificial intelligence and telemedicine to bring advanced medical care to rural areas, stating that such innovations could provide 'concierge care to every American in this country, even remote parts.'
To make this vision a reality, Kennedy would need to streamline FDA approval for new GenAI tools and work with Congress to make Medicare's current reimbursements for telemedicine permanent. If successful, these advancements wouldn't just improve care in rural areas, they would expand access nationwide for patients struggling with mental health and addiction.
The COVID-19 pandemic led to over 1 million American deaths and a historic drop in U.S. life expectancy. While every nation experienced losses, the United States was hit particularly hard. As of 2024, the U.S. has regained only half of the lost years, lagging far behind peer countries.
A major driver of the nation's high mortality rate was widespread vaccine hesitancy. Though COVID-19 vaccines weren't a flawless solution, they significantly reduced the risk of hospitalization and death. Still, many Americans—distrustful of public health agencies or swayed by misinformation—chose to forgo them, a choice that disproportionately harmed older adults and those with underlying health conditions.
Kennedy's long-standing skepticism toward vaccines has been central to his public persona, and on this issue, his views directly conflict with scientific consensus.
The Opportunity for RFK Jr.: Kennedy has a chance to help restore public trust in vaccines—a critical step in preparing for future public health threats. While he has made gestures in that direction, his messaging and actions remain contradictory.
Amid the ongoing measles outbreak—which began in Texas and has infected nearly 400 people across 15 states—Kennedy initially acknowledged the importance of vaccination, stating, 'Vaccines not only protect individual children from measles, but also contribute to community immunity.' However, he later promoted vitamin A supplements and cod liver oil as additional treatments, which public health experts have criticized as unproven and potentially misleading.
In a recent response to avian flu, Kennedy suggested allowing the virus to spread in order to identify birds with natural immunity. Public health experts and veterinary scientists have widely criticized it as scientifically unsound, increasing the risk of viral mutation and human transmission—and potentially creating another public health crisis akin to COVID-19.
That said, his administration has taken some constructive steps. One example: RFK ordered the removal of a fake CDC website that featured misleading vaccine information.
It remains unclear whether Kennedy's stance on vaccines will evolve. But if he channels his longstanding call for increased transparency in vaccine development and safety data toward scientifically grounded reforms, he could earn back public trust—particularly among vaccine-hesitant Americans. The impact of his efforts will likely hinge on whether the researchers he has appointed to study vaccine safety pursue the issue with scientific integrity or with bias rooted in past skepticism.
Politicians have tinkered around the edges of healthcare reform for decades, yet no one has made the bold moves needed to improve U.S. health outcomes or close the life expectancy gap with peer nations.
Now, Kennedy has a rare chance to change that. By advancing proven strategies—(a) reducing chronic disease through preventive and primary care, (b) tackling deaths of despair with tech-enabled treatments and (c) using science-based interventions to fight infectious disease—he could narrow the gap and reestablish the U.S. as a global healthcare leader.
But if he erodes public trust in health institutions, promotes unproven treatments or dismantles vaccine programs, preventable deaths will rise (especially among children) and life expectancy will decline even further.
With his leadership team now in place at the FDA, CDC and CMS, Kennedy must choose a path. The health of millions hangs in the balance.