A ‘Return of the Jedi' moment in Ukraine

The Hill

5 days ago

Cue the Star Wars theme music. In Ukraine, we just witnessed an epic real-life fiery version of the 'Return of the Jedi' movie.
Of the nine principles of war described by Carl Von Clausewitz in his book 'On War,' surprise often yields the biggest dividend. It is achieved by 'strik[ing] the enemy at a time, place, and manner for which he or she is unprepared.'
Ukraine did just that on Sunday with an operation code-named 'Spider's Web.' Ukrainian special forces launched drone strikes against four strategic Russian air bases — Belaya, Olenya, Dyagilevo, and Ivanovo — that spanned the length and breadth of Russia. More than 40 Russian military aircraft were reportedly struck.
Operational video shows two Tupolev 'Bear' Tu-95 strategic bombers burning. They were likely destroyed. These are the same type of Russian aircraft that Vladimir Putin used last Thursday to launch missiles against Ukrainian civilian population centers across Ukraine. Notably, six of those bombers came from the Olenya Airbase in northern Russian in Murmansk near the border with Finland.
Ukraine's reach is now just as deep as Putin's ballistic missiles. Something Kim Jong-un — Russia's Arsenals of Evil partner — must now factor in too. Belaya is only 2,000 kilometers from Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea.
Make no mistake. These Ukrainian deep strikes — ingeniously conducted by infiltrating drones inside of Russia while using Putin's own cargo trucks to launch them — are a military game-changer on many levels.
Yet again, Ukrainian innovation won the day. Despite President Trump's chiding of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office in February that 'you don't have the cards,' he apparently did. Zelensky and his generals delivered a stunning blow to roughly 34 percent of the Russian strategic bomber fleet responsible for launching cruise missiles against Ukrainian cities.
Beyond retribution for the deaths of Ukrainian men, women and children, Zelensky also demonstrated through this operation that Kyiv has the capacity for interdiction and deep strikes to conventionally defeat Russian forces in Ukraine — and to expel them from their occupied cities and oblasts.
They also portend the type of strategic threats Brussels and Washington must be able to defend against in the future. Presently, NATO — especially its civilian population centers and military bases — is highly vulnerable to similar types of drone attacks. Indeed, a sobering Revolution in Military Affairs was showcased by Ukraine on Sunday.
Trump's proposed 'Golden Dome' has been derided by many as a bridge too far, much like President Ronald Reagan's now prophetic 'Star Wars' missile defense shield. But it is now suddenly defensive took very much in need. If we desire to buy time to build and deploy it not just against Russia but a rising China as well, then the White House needs to embrace Ukraine winning.
We have long warned that Kyiv cannot win if the U.S. prevents the Ukraine from attacking targets on Russian soil using Western-made and supplied weapon systems and munitions. Former President Joe Biden repeatedly made this mistake throughout his term. Defeating the weapon system from its point of origin rather than shooting down the individual missile over the skies of Ukraine — as aptly described by retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges as 'killing the archer rather than trying to knock down all of the arrows' — is the only way to put an end to Putin's deliberate targeting of Ukrainian civilians.
Defense of the skies is critical as well. The European Sky Shield initiative, as well as the creation and sustainment of an integrated, layered air defense system similar to the one Israel employed to defeat Iranian ballistic missile and drones attacks in April and October 2024 are critical parts of a No-Fly zone.
Team Trump and NATO can now rectify that. Ukraine just dramatically exposed Putin's Achilles' Heel — and the White House can now exploit Russia's weakness and force Putin to concede defeat in his now three-year plus so-called 'Special Military Operation' against Ukraine.
That means Washington, London and Brussels embracing joint interdiction operations and deep strike operations to convince the Kremlin it cannot win, much less sustain, the war Putin started in Ukraine.
Russia has two great strengths. The first is through mass via infantry and artillery, applying relentless pressure despite a cost of 989,700 casualties and counting. The second is to instill fear in the civilian population by targeting and destroying villages, towns and cities.
Interdiction, however, defeats Russian forces and their supply lines long before they arrive on the Ukrainian battlefields. Deep strikes attack Russia's ability to fund and sustain its war effort, including curtailing the strategic effects of bombing Ukrainian cities. The result is a siege warfare type of engagement, whereby an isolated Russian army in Ukraine is rendered incapable to continue fighting.
Sunday's strikes against Russian targets exposed a critical vulnerability for the West to leverage. Putin thought he had all the cards going into the Istanbul 2.0 negotiations, but they have been lost. Still, this cannot be a one-and-done engagement — it must be sustained to force the withdrawal of all Russian forces from Ukraine.
Significantly, Ukraine just demonstrated that it will not wait for Washington and Brussels to act. And if the history is any indication — as with Kherson, Belgorod, Kursk, and the Patriot missile ambushes — momentum will be lost in fear of further antagonizing Russia.
The Jedi impact on Putin was immediate. Russian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov was suddenly the one without any cards to play during the Monday meeting in Istanbul. The session ended with Ukraine on the offensive, 'offer[ing] a complete ceasefire, the exchange of prisoners of war in an all-for-all format, bringing back the children abducted by Russia, and the release of all civilians from Russian captivity.'
Putin, essentially playing the movie role of the Galactic Emperor, remains silent. A significant amount of his strategic bomber force was destroyed or damaged by an unseen force of daring Ukrainian Jedi.
Sometimes, in real life, the fictional Luke Skywalkers win. Zelensky and his fellow Ukrainians just did. It is time Team Trump and NATO put an end to this movie and roll the credits on Putin and his 'special military operation' in Ukraine.
Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan E. Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer.