CNA938 Rewind - How did Thai PM Paetongtarn come back on the brink of collapse?
CNA938 Rewind
Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra says her government coalition remains strong, following a Cabinet reshuffle. But can her government survive as territorial tensions escalate? Lance Alexander and Daniel Martin speak with CNA correspondent Saksith Saiyasombut.
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Commentary: Israel-Iran conflict exposes frailties of Tehran's regime
SINGAPORE: The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has not only set back Iran's nuclear ambitions, it has also exposed the frailties of the regime that has governed the country for 46 years. Since the Islamic revolution in 1979 that overthrew the much-despised monarchy, the regime has exercised complete domination over religion, security and society. Externally, it built proxy regimes and militias to expand its influence which were seen as threats not just by Israel but also Iran's Arab neighbours. This profile of Iran as a powerful state with a formidable military and militias now lays shattered. First, Israel decimated Iranian proxies in the Middle East in response to the 7 Oct, 2023 terror attack. Over the last two weeks, it has bombed Iran's nuclear and military infrastructure and killed its military leadership with impunity. What Israel started was finished by the United States when it bombed the most secure of Iran's nuclear sites, rendering them unusable – for now. The exact damage to Iran's nuclear programme will only be clear in time. But the conflict has shown that Iran's defences are weak and its ability to respond for an extended period of time is limited. It also shows Iran is not as formidable a regional power that it is perceived to be. It appears more like neighbouring Iraq under Saddam Hussein - more bark than bite. Iran also has limited support from traditional allies Russia and China. The former is embroiled in a war with Ukraine and the latter's interests in the Middle East are economic and energy, not security. Even if the two provide Iran material support, it will be quite limited. CAN THE REGIME SURVIVE? For now, the immediate focus of the international community is ensuring a sustainable ceasefire. No one wants a protracted war, though it is almost certain that the US will continue to maintain strong deterrence in the region. A ceasefire also ensures that the Straits of Hormuz remains open, reducing the risks of supply disruptions and volatile prices. This is good for Singapore and the wider region, including China which is one of Iran's biggest energy importers. When negotiations resume, Iran's immediate asks will be less about its nuclear programme and more about ensuring Isreal is reigned in. In the background, however, ensuring the regime's survival will be paramount. Regime change was not a stated goal when Israel launched its attacks, but it may well be an unintended consequence. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ruled Iran since the death of leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989. In the 36 years, the conservative Khamenei has consolidated power through the control of clerics who exercise authority over Iranian society and function as gatekeepers with veto over who contests elections. He has also used domestic security apparatus to silence critics and crush revolts, such as the 2022 protests against mandatory hijab rules for Iranian women. Under Khamenei's rule and numerous international sanctions, Iran's economy has also suffered. Despite controlling one of the world's largest oil and gas reserves, Iran suffers from mass unemployment and inflation. Added to that is rampant corruption by the clerics, military and the government. Together, these factors have significantly reduced the support that the regime once enjoyed after the revolution in 1979. Also not gone unnoticed - especially by Iranian youth - are changes in the region. United Arab Emirates and Qatar are now prosperous, globally integrated countries that were once far behind Iran. The rapid changes in regional rival Saudi Arabia, which has replaced exporting Wahhabism with attracting billions in international capital to transform the kingdom, makes Iran appear even more outdated and regressive. REFORM OR STATUS QUO Change will come; just how is yet unclear. One scenario is for the West to force Iran to democratise, the West's many failed "national building" experiments notwithstanding. A group of Iranian dissidents are lobbying for this option, including the descendent of the last Shah of Iran. However, no Iranian, no matter how opposed they are to the regime, will welcome a group that's seen in the pocket of the West and Israel. A more realistic option is to engineer or encourage a change in leadership while preserving the Islamic republic. The 86-year-old Khamenei is said to be in ill health and has no designated successor. While his appointment is for life and he was only appointed because his predecessor died, Khamenei can step aside on health grounds. Reuters recently reported that plans to name a replacement have accelerated. Khamenei would want a like-minded replacement such as his 56-year-old son Mojtaba or another hardline cleric with the backing of the military. But it is also possible that the three-member committee vetting candidates may exercise pragmatism – for the regime's survival – and propose a more liberal alternative, thus strengthening the hands of the reformists who have long advocated change. One such option is Ruhollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan, who is reportedly close to the reformers.
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Commentary: A long Thailand-Cambodia border row is bad news for ASEAN
NEW YORK: On May 28, a Cambodian soldier was shot in a brief exchange of gunfire between Cambodian and Thai forces along a disputed part of their 817km shared border. What initially appeared to be a bilateral military skirmish has since escalated into tit-for-tat cycle that threatens to destabilise ASEAN at a critical juncture. After the clash, Phnom Penh and Bangkok beefed up their military presence in disputed areas along the border. Both sides took turns closing or reducing the operating hours of border checkpoints, and, by Monday (Jun 23), the Thai army had effectively shut all land border crossings with Cambodia. Meanwhile, Phnom Penh banned Thai media, disconnected cross-border internet, and boycotted produce, fuel and gas imports from Thailand. A leaked call between Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and former Cambodian leader Hun Sen now threatens to unseat the former, who has already been heavily criticised for putting her family's close ties with the Hun dynasty over national interests. Bilateral efforts to resolve the dispute have dried up, and the stage is now set for a prolonged conflict between these two neighbours. How the border crisis unfolds will have serious repercussions not just for Thailand and Cambodia, but for the region as a whole. COLONIAL LEGACIES AND MODERN DISPUTES Although Thailand and Cambodia generally enjoy friendly relations, unresolved colonial-era demarcations have been a longstanding source of tension, and both countries have historically disagreed on how to resolve such disputes. In 1962, following French withdrawal from Indochina, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) granted Cambodia authority over the highly contested 900-year-old Preah Vihear temple. While Bangkok begrudgingly accepted the ICJ ruling, the Thai government has continued to claim ownership over the land surrounding the temple. When Cambodia petitioned UNESCO to formally recognise Preah Vihear as a World Heritage Site in 2008, the ownership dispute resurfaced, resulting in a three-year-long series of military clashes that killed at least 28 and displaced 36,000 people in the areas surrounding the temple. In 2013, after the fighting had stopped, Phnom Penh asked the ICJ to clarify the extent of Cambodian sovereignty on the surrounding land. The ICJ determined Cambodia had authority over the whole area, but Thailand rejected the court's jurisdiction and disputed the ruling. The Thai army has since maintained a troop presence near Preah Vihear and several other contested temple complexes along the border. Following the recent escalation in border tensions, Cambodia has gone back to the ICJ, asking them to rule on jurisdiction over Ta Moan Thom, Ta Moan Tauch and Ta Krabei temples, as well as an area near to where the May 28 shootout occurred. Bangkok has expressed their firm opposition to settling the issue through the IJC and is unlikely to recognise any ruling on behalf of Cambodia. Instead, Thailand insists on using bilateral mechanisms like the Thailand-Cambodia Joint Border Commission (JBC) to resolve the dispute. The JBC has struggled to make any meaningful progress since it was established in 2000 and likewise failed to de-escalate the conflict when it met 10 days ago. NATIONALIST UNDERTONES The nationalist undertones of the conflict likewise indicate that the border row won't be easy to resolve. In Thailand, the conservative opposition and military have capitalised on perceptions that Ms Paetongtarn, like her father before her, is too friendly with Cambodian strong-man Hun Sen and his son Hun Manet, the current prime minister. On Jun 18, a 17-minute phone call between Ms Paetongtarn and Mr Hun Sen was leaked in which she called him 'uncle' and appeared to criticise many of the Thai army's actions at the border. In response, the Bhumjaithai Party announced that it would withdraw from the alliance with Ms Paetongtarn's Pheu Thai party, leaving her with a slim and fracturing majority in parliament. The Thai prime minister is now facing mounting pressure to resign, and analysts have speculated that it is unlikely she will survive this political crisis. Meanwhile, the Thai army has declared its readiness for a 'high-level operation' at the border. The military and opposition may very well continue to stoke the flames of the border conflict and leverage nationalist sentiment to drive the Pheu Thai party out of power, whether it be by a coup or political manoeuvring. ASEAN UNITY UNDER FIRE The economic fallout of border checkpoint closures and boycotts of certain goods will be significant for both Thailand and Cambodia. According to the World Bank, Thailand was Cambodia's third biggest trading partner in 2022, with imports reaching US$3.8 billion. Thai fuel, now banned by Phnom Penh, accounted for about 28 per cent of such imports. All of this comes at a moment when both countries are struggling under the weight of baseline tariffs from the Trump administration and the threat of more when the 90-day pause ends in early July. Cambodia is set to be the hardest hit in Southeast Asia with a 49 per cent rate on exports to the United States, while Thailand faces 36 per cent. The Thailand-Cambodia standoff also comes at a particularly fragile moment for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which is already under pressure over its failure to address the civil war in Myanmar. On Jun 6, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, current chairman of the bloc, said that he had engaged both leaders, but the talks served as little more than a gesture. Challenged by its commitment to consensus and non-interference, ASEAN currently lacks effective and binding dispute resolution mechanisms. Cambodia's decision to turn outwards to the ICJ and Thailand's desire to use bilateral frameworks are evidence of a loss of faith in the bloc's capacity to prevent escalation. The renewed border conflict between member states not only weakens ASEAN's central premise of preventing war between members, but also brings into question its ability to effectively work as a unit to address geopolitical headwinds in a moment where it needs to do so. ASEAN's best chance of responding to US President Donald Trump's tariffs is by pursuing a combination of coordinated regional strategies and bilateral negotiations. If Thailand-Cambodia relations continue to deteriorate, the bloc's ability to effectively negotiate with the Trump administration and weather the impact of incoming tariffs will be severely hindered. The same goes for addressing issues like rising tensions in the South China Sea and the intensifying rivalry between the US and China. ASEAN unity is paramount as the bloc attempts to navigate the changing geopolitical order. The coming days and weeks will be a critical test of ASEAN's ability to overcome the very challenges it was founded to prevent. All eyes should be on the Emerald Triangle.
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Singapore College of Islamic Studies has potential to plug global education gap: Faishal Ibrahim
Acting Minister-in-charge of Muslim Affairs Faishal Ibrahim says the upcoming Singapore College of Islamic Studies has the potential to plug a gap in the global education system for religious teachers. Muhammad Bahajjaj has more.
