New Jersey governor's race heats up: What one political expert is watching in Tuesday's primary

CBS News

2 days ago

New Jerseyans will pick a new governor in 2025 to replace the term-limited Democrat Phil Murphy. That process starts Tuesday with the state's primary election, when voters from both parties sift through crowded fields to nominate their candidates.
We spoke with Professor Kristoffer Shields, director of the Eagleton Center on the American Governor at Rutgers University, to find out what he's watching in this primary election.
Democratic primary race is 'unique'
The field of candidates on both sides of this race is jam-packed. Six Democrats and five Republicans are vying for the governor's seat. But while both sides have crowded races, Shields said there's something in the Democratic primary that stands out.
"The number of candidates who have a really legitimate chance of winning on Tuesday make this stand out more so than any primary since maybe going back to 1981," Shields said.
The race for the Democratic nomination features two members of Congress (Rep. Josh Gottheimer and Rep. Mikie Sherrill), mayors of two of the largest cities in the state (Ras Baraka of Newark, Steve Fulop of Jersey City), the head of one of the most powerful unions in the state (Sean Spiller of the New Jersey Education Association), and the longest-tenured state Senate president in New Jersey history (former Sen. Steve Sweeney).
"I would not call it a surprise for any of the six to win on Tuesday night," Shields said.
READ MORE: Where do you vote for New Jersey's 2025 primary election? Find your polling location
The candidates range the political spectrum from moderate to liberal, and they have spent the past few months courting various groups of voters. Shields says while Sherrill has led in the sparse polling available, it hasn't been by much, and everyone else appears to be within striking distance.
It's a race where landing 30% of the vote might take it, and one in which Shields said the winner will likely be the one who actually gets their supporters to the polls.
"Whoever does that most efficiently and effectively probably wins amongst the Democrats," Shields said.
There's a frontrunner in the GOP, but not a lock
Garden State Republicans also have a crowded field to choose from, with five candidates vying for the party nomination. But unlike the Democrats', Shields believes there's a frontrunner here in Jack Ciattarelli.
"I do think that if he were to ultimately lose on Tuesday night, it would be considered a surprise at this point," Shields said.
Ciattarelli is making his third run for the governor's seat, having won the GOP nomination in 2021 and coming within 3.5% of incumbent Democrat Phil Murphy. The former state assemblyman also landed the endorsement of President Trump in May.
But Shields wouldn't go as far as to say it's Ciattarelli's race to lose.
Three of the other Republicans in the race (contractor Justin Barbera, former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac, and radio host Bill Spadea) have been closely aligned with Mr. Trump, and the last (state Sen. Jon Bramnick) has positioned himself as a moderate in the group.
Shields says another one of the candidates could take advantage of a possible low-turnout race in which small changes among voters could lead to big changes in results.
"It's a little bit easier for someone who's behind to catch up," Shields said.
How many people will actually show up?
Primary election turnout, in general, is usually on the lower side. For reference, Philadelphia held its primary last month with the Democratic race for district attorney on the line. Turnout for the May 20 primary reached just over 16%.
But in New Jersey, primary numbers can get even lower. In the 2021 primary race, turnout was just 12%. Four years earlier, in 2017, turnout was 15%.
Shields says timing is also a tough sell for voters. New Jersey's election happens in an off-year and the primaries are in June, a time when many people are more worried about summer trips than polling places.
But Shields said this year could be different.
"It's one of the things I'm most interested in," Shields said.
The Rutgers professor notes this is many people's first chance to vote since a contentious 2024 presidential race. What's happening in Washington remains of high interest to voters, and Shields believes that could push more people to the polls this year.
"Whether it's to show support for the presidential administration or whether it's to show resistance to it, I think we will see more people exercising that right here in the primary," Shields said.
And speaking of the president …
Trump will come up, but another issue will matter more
Trump's presence will certainly loom in this race. He's already made an endorsement, and national pundits will likely watch the Garden State race closely as a first test of the president's influence (New Jersey and Virginia are the only gubernatorial races in the U.S. in 2025).
But while Shields said Trump and his administration's policies on things like immigration will undoubtedly be part of the campaign, he doesn't think it'll be what matters most.
"Ultimately, this election is going to be defined by affordability issues in New Jersey," Shields said.
This is not a new fight in New Jersey, but it is one that's taken center stage in the 2025 race. Almost every candidate in this race, regardless of party, has some sort of policy related to affordability in the Garden State. Shields says that affordability umbrella will include property taxes and high housing costs to funding for things like NJ Transit and more.
"If you want to be the next governor of New Jersey," Shields said, "you have to be credible on those issues, and you have to have a plan people will buy into."