Forecasting smoke can be "like looking for a needle in a haystack," say meteorologists

CBS News

2 days ago

Wednesday's air quality made being outside a lot better across the region after the recent smoky stretch. Skies were much more clear, and healthy, compared to Tuesday.
For days, wildfire smoke has filled the skies over the Twin Cities, and the entire state. But tracking how that smoke will move from Canada, or when it's going to cause problems at the surface, isn't easy.
"You're looking for really kind of small, fine details that end up becoming a big deal. It's akin to severe weather forecasting. You're always kind of looking for a needle in a haystack, and oftentimes those are the things that will make or break your forecast," said Matt Taraldsen, a meteorologist with the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency.
He said there are several forecasting models that his team uses, but even the models struggle on such a small scale.
"We're always kind of hunting for those mechanisms, like a cold front or a thunderstorm outflow boundary, that will push that smoke down to the ground and hold it there. And the models just, you know, beyond 12 or 24 hours, really have a hard time with any of those types of details."
But it's more than just the predictions that are complex. It's the chemisty too. Tuesday is the perfect example since rain typically helps to clean the air. Not this time since they were only light showers.
"We really need to have, like, a consistent half inch or more an hour type of rainfall rate to really wash out on particulate matter. Otherwise it just kind of water logs the particles and pushes them down to the ground," Taraldsen explained.
He said this outbreak is likely just the beginning — as long as the fires keep burning.
"I think it's something that we're doing that definitely have to monitor closely for the rest of the summer. We really just tell people to kind of keep an eye on the forecast. We're always updating it and kind of refining it, and that will give people a good heads up for what they need to do to protect themselves."
WCCO's team of meteorologists will always keep you updated on the smoke and air qualily. You can also find the latest air quality alerts and forecasts on the Minnesota Pollution Control agency website.