3 questions about Knicks' ability to pull off 3-1 comeback against Pacers

New York Times

a day ago

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Thirteen-year-old spelling phenom Faizan Zaki won the Scripps Spelling Bee after coming in second last year. His winning word was 'éclaircissement.' I'll admit I don't know what that word means, but I assume it has something to do with when George Costanza got caught eating one out of the trash.
Easy part of potential comeback is now done
While the odds are greatly in the favor of the Pacers to close out this series after going up 3-1, the odds were heavily in the Knicks' favor to take Game 5 at Madison Square Garden. I saw a stat from Raheem Palmer of The Ringer yesterday that home teams down 3-1 are 32-12 in Game 5s. We can update that to 33-12 after the Knicks dismantled the Pacers 111-94. It's not a surprise that the Knicks won this game to force a Game 6 Saturday night in Indianapolis.
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The surprise is how dominant the Knicks were, considering the Pacers' play so far in the postseason. Indiana had two blowout losses in the previous two rounds: A 16-point loss to Milwaukee in the first round that was fueled by a 70-44 second half by the Bucks. And a 22-point loss to the Cavaliers, thanks to a 34-13 second quarter to take control of the game. Their only other loss was actually Game 3 at home when the Knicks came back to avoid going down 3-0.
They didn't get dominated, though, like the Knicks did to them last night. Indiana didn't lead for a single second of that game. The Knicks outscored them 60-34 in the paint. Karl-Anthony Towns had 24 points and 13 rebounds. Jalen Brunson led the way with 32 points, five rebounds and five assists. But most importantly, the Knicks completely shut down a Pacers offense that has been hounding their defense by pushing the ball into the paint.
All series long, the Knicks have been hovering around a 1:1 assist-to-turnover ratio against this Pacers team. They just haven't moved the ball, and they've been a little too sloppy with the rock. They flipped that on Indiana in Game 5. They actually forced 20 turnovers by an Indiana team that was fourth in the NBA in turnover rate, and allowed just 20 assists. It was the ninth game of the season the Pacers turned it over 20 or more times, and the first time they did it in the postseason. They're now 3-6 in those games.
A few questions pop up for the Knicks in this scenario moving forward:
1) Were the Pacers overmatched?
One option credits the Knicks and one option kind of dismisses the dominance they showed in Game 5. I'm not going to allow myself the copout of saying that this is somewhere in the middle, so I'm going to say the Knicks overmatched them. It's possible the Pacers kind of packed it in effort-wise in this game and decided to rest to fight another day – that day specifically being Saturday for Game 6. However, that's not how they played in trying to make runs in this game. This wasn't like how OKC got dominated in Game 3 in Minneapolis or how Minnesota got dominated in Game 5 in Oklahoma City.
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After the Knicks got the lead to 20 in the third quarter, the Pacers cut it to 10 with a spirited run thanks to Bennedict Mathurin and Obi Toppin. But the Knicks responded with a 10-0 run to get it back to 20 with a quickness. Indiana wouldn't cut it below 12 in the fourth. The Pacers just couldn't solve the Knicks at all last night.
2) Did they figure out how to slow down Haliburton?
This is oddly similar to the game we saw from Haliburton in the 22-point loss to Cleveland in Game 3 of the second round. He had four points on eight shots, zero free-throw attempts, five assists and three turnovers in 30 minutes in that loss. Against the Knicks last night, his game was painfully apathetic to what the Pacers normally need from him.
Haliburton followed his historic Game 4 performance by putting up an absolute dud. Just eight points on seven shots, 4-of-5 from the free-throw line, six assists and zero turnovers in 32 minutes of action. The Pacers were terrible with him on the court. That's not what we're used to seeing from him. I would imagine Game 6 at home will have a different, more familiar side of his game, but the Knicks need to replicate that the best they can.
3) How likely is a Game 7?
This is the tricky part. Thirteen times in NBA history, a team has forced a Game 7 and completed the comeback. As we noted a couple of days ago, only four of those have come in the conference finals or later. Two of those happened in the same year, so it's pretty rare. Nineteen other times, a team has forced a Game 7, only to lose that Game 7. We're not counting teams that were down 3-0 in a series and came back to force a Game 7.
They've already beaten the odds of getting to a Game 6. Of the 297 series with a 3-1 lead, 179 of them ended in five games (60.2 percent). But 82 of those 297 (27.6 percent) do end in six games. So, things are still looking murky for the Knicks Saturday night.
We'll get deeper into the Game 7 history for 3-1 series below.
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🎧 Tuning in. Today's 'NBA Daily' warns the Pacers about getting too comfortable against the Knicks.
About Knicks' quest to return series to MSG
As you saw above, history is not really on the side of the Knicks for reaching a Game 7. But it's not impossible. We've seen 10.7 percent of teams down 3-1 force a Game 7. We had one during this postseason, if you recall, when the Rockets forced a Game 7 against the Warriors before getting ousted. So, it's not just something that happened long ago in a pre-merger NBA far, far away.
Seven of the 19 teams who forced a Game 7 but failed to win the series were the home team in those scenarios, including the Rockets this year.
We haven't seen a team come back from down 3-1 to win the series since the Nuggets did it in back-to-back rounds in the bubble in 2020. Of the 13 teams to pull it off, eight of them had homecourt advantage in Game 7. That's encouraging for the Knicks if they're going to get this done.
We'd love a Game 7 regardless of who wins it, so the
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The story of the greatest players in NBA history.
This LeBron anniversary will make you feel old
On Saturday, we're getting the 18-year anniversary of the first time LeBron James really put himself on the map in a way that scared opponents, both present and future, around the NBA. This was back when he was leading a Cavaliers team with Daniel 'Boobie' Gibson (13.5 points) and Zyndrunas Ilgauskas (12.8) as his second- and third-leading scorers. Gibson didn't even start in the Eastern Conference finals.
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After the Cavs tied up the series at 2-2 with two home victories, they headed to MoTown to face a brilliant Pistons squad. Then, with 2:23 left and the Pistons holding an 88-84 lead in regulation, nobody knew what was about to hit Detroit – in a way not even Stephen Jackson and Ron Artest could replicate.
LeBron went on a transcendent run the rest of the game, scoring the final 25 points of the game for the Cavs over a nearly 14.5-minute stretch spanning two overtime periods and the rest of the fourth quarter. His scoring was vicious:
Five of his scores took the lead, and the other five tied the game in this stretch. He finished with 48 points on 18-of-33 shooting in 50 minutes. He was 22 years old. He'd close out the Pistons next game and make his first NBA Finals. It's worth watching again.
( Photo: Brad Penner / USA Today Network via Imagn Images )