Ukraine war briefing: North Korea sending another 5,000 into Kursk
North Korea will send 'a division of builders, two military brigades – 5,000 people' as well as 1,000 demining personnel to the Kursk region, according to Russian news agencies quoting Vladimir Putin's security council chief, Sergei Shoigu, who was visiting Pyongyang, the North Korean capital. Out of 10,000 North Korean soldiers already sent to fight against Ukraine there have been 6,000 casualties, the British defence ministry said this week. Tuesday's Russian reports suggested the new personnel would be put to work in Kursk, which was partly invaded by Ukraine.
Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday accused Putin, the Russian president, of exploiting the preoccupied international climate to carry out a deadly attack on Kyiv. 'It shows the complete cynicism of President Putin, who is using the international context to step again attacks against civilians,' the French president told reporters at the G7 summit in Canada, which Trump rushed out of on Monday night. A US citizen died in the attack on Kyiv, the state department said.
Trump's absence left Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in the lurch, Patrick Wintour writes, and has set European leaders and officials seething. One said: 'It is an permanent hazard that Ukraine is a victim of events and Trump's short attention span. There had been all sorts of promises for this summit – including new US arms deliveries being offered.' Ukraine was proposing to buy US weapons including new air defences, to get around Trump's complaint that Ukraine is a drain on the US budget and instead appeal to his focus on making money.
The 'G6' leaders who remained to complete the summit in Canada discussed Russia's war in Ukraine and international cooperation on key non-military issues. Zelenskyy said: 'We are ready for the peace negotiations, unconditional ceasefire. I think it's very important. But for this, we need pressure [on Russia].' Trump's stance on Ukraine puts him fundamentally at odds with the other G7 leaders, who are clear that Russia is the aggressor in the war. The US has declined to join new sanctions against Russia from other countries, with Trump saying: 'When I sanction a country, that costs the US a lot of money, a tremendous amount of money.'
Russia's attack on Kyiv flattened a section of an apartment block, as a barrage of hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles killed at least 18 people and wounded 151 across Ukraine and officials declared a day of mourning on Wednesday. Authorities said 16 were killed in Kyiv and two in Odesa. A missile struck a nine-storey residential building in Kyiv's Solomianskyi district. 'I have never seen anything like this before. It is simply horrific. When they started pulling people out, and everyone was cut up, elderly people and children … I do not know how long they can continue to torment us ordinary people,' said Viktoriia Vovchenko, 57, a neighbour.
Australia has joined allies in imposing penalties on the Russian 'shadow fleet' used to evade sanctions and trade in goods that help support Moscow's war in Ukraine. They are the first such measures by Australia. 'Operating under deceptive practices, including flag-hopping, disabling tracking systems, and operating with inadequate insurance, the shadow fleet enables the illicit trade of Russian oil and other sanctioned goods,' said Penny Wong, the foreign minister in Canberra.
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The Guardian
31 minutes ago
- The Guardian
Wednesday briefing: How Trump's unpredictability is shaping the Middle East crisis
Good morning. In Alberta, Canada yesterday, leaders of six of the G7 countries set out their stalls on the conflict between Iran and Israel. Keir Starmer insisted that de-escalation was still the plan; Emmanuel Macron said that 'the biggest mistake that can be made today is to try to change the regime in Iran by military means'. But more than 3,000km away in Washington DC, the G7 leader who matters most was charting his own course – and bringing the US closer to entering the war. Within 24 hours Donald Trump shifted from promises that a deal could be done to demands for Tehran's 'unconditional surrender'. To his supporters this was a genius strategic manoeuvre and all part of the plan; to residents of the Iranian capital it is a much more ominous shift. The thousands who streamed from the city were not only responding to his Truth Social post calling for an immediate evacuation – but they may consider that Trump's past assertions that he wants to keep the US out of any conflict now look extremely unreliable. Last night, following a situation room briefing with his national security team, he was said to be weighing his options. A senior Israeli official told CNN: 'We are waiting for the decision of the president.' It is still unclear whether any strategy underpins Trump's public interventions – or if he has simply been shifting with the tides. Today's newsletter, with the Guardian's Andrew Roth in Washington DC, examines the available clues. Here are the headlines. Abortion rights | British MPs have voted to decriminalise abortion, marking the biggest step forward in reproductive rights in almost 60 years. The change means that women who terminate their pregnancy outside the existing legal framework, for example after the time limit or by buying pills online, will no longer face arrest or prison. Tariffs | Donald Trump is threatening to keep 25% tariffs on UK steel imports unless it gives specific guarantees over the Indian-owned steelmaking plant at Port Talbot in south Wales, sources have told the Guardian. The US is seeking assurances that raw materials for the plant will not be imported from overseas. Ukraine | Russia launched a sustained missile and drone attack on Kyiv in the early hours of Tuesday, killing at least 16 people in what the Ukrainian president called 'one of the most horrific attacks' on the Ukrainian capital since the full-scale war began in spring 2022. UK news | The public must 'keep calm' over the ethnicity of grooming gang offenders, the author of a high-profile report has urged, saying police data from one region suggested race was proportional with the local population. Health | Cannabis use may double the risk of dying from heart disease and increase the risk of stroke by 20%, according to a global review of data. A linked editorial said the analysis 'raises serious questions about the assumption that cannabis imposes little cardiovascular risk'. After leaving the G7 summit a day early, skipping meetings with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Nato chief, Mark Rutte, Donald Trump made a confounding leap in his public messaging on the new conflict in the Middle East. In Alberta on Monday, he had suggested that a nuclear deal with Tehran remained 'achievable'; on the overnight flight back to DC, he said he was 'not too much in the mood to negotiate'; when he landed, he told reporters that he was 'not looking for a ceasefire', but a 'complete give-up' by Iran. Meanwhile, he posted on social media that 'IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON' and that 'everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!' Later yesterday, he demanded Iran's 'unconditional surrender' and mused on how easy it would be to kill the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 'It has shifted in the last day in a very significant way,' Andrew Roth said. Meanwhile, as Dan Sabbagh explains in this analysis piece, the US has stepped up its military presence in the region. 'The rhetoric has risen exponentially, and the pieces to do it are there,' Andrew said. 'We don't know if that's a pressure tactic or a statement of intent, but either way it makes US involvement more likely.' What happened at the G7? The Alberta summit was meant to be an opportunity for the group of wealthy nations to reach useful agreements on major international issues: Ukraine, Gaza and Trump's tariffs were all on the table. But even before Trump's early exit, that agenda was torpedoed by Israel's new attack on Iran. Trump co-signed a brief statement before his departure calling for a 'de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza', and asserting that 'Iran can never have a nuclear weapon'. 'There's nothing the president said that suggests that he's about to get involved in this conflict,' Keir Starmer said. 'On the contrary, the G7 statement was about de-escalation.' That analysis would appear to be based on a touching faith in Trump's commitment to international diplomatic norms rather than abiding by whatever he's said last. What do we know about what Trump wants? Trump is reportedly obsessed with winning the Nobel peace prize. His consistent message to voters during the 2024 election campaign was that a vote for him was a vote to end foreign wars – and many took him at his word. As the news of Israel's strikes on Iran broke last week, Trump's secretary of state, Marco Rubio, emphasised that the US was 'not involved in strikes against Iran'; but Trump himself declined to comment on whether the US participated, and said that the White House had been fully apprised of Benjamin Netanyahu's plans. Israeli officials have briefed the media that public statements by the US and Israel were 'strategically coordinated to lull Tehran into a false sense of security' – but that should be treated with scepticism, since it has not been corroborated by reporters in Washington. In any case, the arc of Trump's comments in recent days has been to imply closer cooperation with Israel as Iran has appeared weakened. 'His shift towards Israel reflects the facts on the ground,' Andrew said. 'The most important thing for Trump is always to come out with a win: if he tries to restrain Israel and fails, he looks weaker than if he endorses an option he was against a month ago.' But with Iran so far avoiding any provocative strike on US interests in the region, it isn't clear what would prompt him to cross the line into direct military involvement. The simplest path might be to continue to use militaristic rhetoric in support of Israel's operation, but refrain from ordering US forces to attack Tehran. Israel would dearly love to have the US as a full ally in the conflict, since it is unable to penetrate Iran's most deeply buried nuclear facilities without US bunker-busting bombs. And with reports that Trump has encouraged new talks between his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and his Iranian counterparts, it is also possible that Trump will present Tehran with an ultimatum: commit to ending all nuclear enrichment in Iran, or face US bombing. How does this play out politically in the United States? Trump is seeking to balance a tension that goes to the heart of the modern Republican party's identity crisis: on the one hand, pressure from traditional conservative hawks who have long yearned for an all-out assault on Iran; on the other, the isolationist tendency in his Maga movement, which viewed his stated aversion to new military adventures as a key tenet of his appeal. 'There was never really a coherent strategy, because he has surrounded himself with people with very different views, and their influence waxes and wanes,' Andrew said. 'And he's finding out that he has a lot of support from across his base that's very hawkish on Iran, or very pro-Israel. At the moment, he is empowering those people, and sidelining the Maga isolationist wing.' In this piece, Andrew lays out how public that schism has now become. Prominent Maga pundits like Tucker Carlson have accused the hawks of being 'warmongers'; senior advisers like the vice-president, JD Vance, are also thought to be averse to military action, fearful that a major Middle East entanglement will derail their hopes of a strategic pivot to the containment of China in the Pacific. But, Andrew writes, 'traditional Republicans such as Senator Tom Cotton, as well as senior Pentagon officials … have continued to impress upon Trump the need for a more hawkish Iran policy'. And Trump himself derided Carlson's position as 'kooky'. He has also dismissed the assessment of his spy chief Tulsi Gabbard - who, Andrew writes here, 'he nominated specifically because of her skepticism for past US interventions in the Middle East' - that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon. And yesterday he posted a truly unsettling text message from his ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, that sought to compare him to Harry Truman in 1945 – the US president who decided to drop nuclear bombs on Japan. Vance, meanwhile, tied himself in knots as he sought to explain Trump's stance to the Maga base: 'People are right to be worried about foreign entanglement after the last 25 years of idiotic foreign policy,' he said. But he claimed that Trump had 'earned some trust on this issue', and added: 'He is only interested in using American military to accomplish the American people's goals.' What impact are his comments having on the ground? Iranian civilians are not the only ones hanging on Trump's every word. In Tehran, there are still some hopes Trump will act as a brake on Netanyahu's offensive: Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, said on Monday that 'it takes one phone call from Washington to muzzle someone like Netanyahu'. On the other hand, that same ambiguity is allowing Netanyahu to present Israel's attack as coming with the approval of the White House – and may be extending the conflict as Israel hopes that the longer it drags on, the more likely it is that an Iranian escalation forces Trump's hand. If that happens, it would suggest that however aggressive Trump's posture is publicly, he is ultimately leaving American foreign policy to be decided by the belligerents in a conflict which he has long claimed he wants to avoid. Sign up to First Edition Our morning email breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what's happening and why it matters after newsletter promotion 'Iran is also an unpredictable actor here,' Andrew said. 'There's always a risk when missiles are flying both ways. And the longer this goes on, the higher the chance of an escalatory event.' Gabrielle Drolet (above) freelances in the strangest corners of writing, from horse newsletters to erotica apps. In this long read, she writes with clarity and humour about navigating a career shaped by chronic pain. Aamna It is a very bad week in the UK for people who don't own a fan. Remove yourself from their sorry ranks with the Filter's guide to the best of them. Archie Iran had been slowly improving politically, economically, and socially – then Israel attacked. Esfandyar Batmanghelidj argues the strikes risk derailing progress and setting the country on a far more dangerous path. Aamna Weight loss jabs have transformed the treatment of obesity, but recent research suggests they may not produce such drastic weight loss in everyday settings. Aamna In New York magazine, Suzy Hansen makes the case that Israel has committed numberless war crimes in Gaza – and perhaps brought the edifice of humanitarian law down at the same time. Her piece is clarifying, devastating, and utterly essential. Archie Football | Ahead of an expected debut for Trent Alexander-Arnold (above left with Jude Bellingham) for Real Madrid in the Club World Cup on Wednesday, Barney Ronay writes that he faces a formidable challenge to succeed: 'Even the opening act in Miami feels vital, the first step in a high‑wire act.' Cricket | The Netherlands and Nepal have etched their names in the cricket record books after the two sides could not be split until a third super over eventually found a winner in the Dutch in their T20 clash in Glasgow. Tennis | Emma Raducanu's stalker has been blocked from buying tickets for the Wimbledon Championships this month in the public ballot, it has emerged. Security staff checked the waiting list following the man's February restraining order in Dubai. 'Trump demands 'unconditional surrender' by Iran as tensions rise' – that's the Guardian this morning. The Telegraph says 'Trump poised to join war on Iran' and the Mail says similarly 'US poised to join Iran war'. The Times has 'Trump: we won't kill ayatollah – for now' while the i paper goes with 'Trump threatens Supreme Leader of Iran, but won't kill him 'for now''. The Financial Times' splash headline is 'Trump calls for Iran's 'surrender' and leaves way open to US role in conflict'. The Express runs with 'Grooming gangs 'one of biggest scandals ever''. The Mirror is on that one too: 'Grooming victim's plea – speak up for justice'. And now the weather – '33 degrees – heatwave in flaming June' – brought to us by the Metro. Air India crash and the miracle of seat 11A Aviation journalist Jeff Wise on the crash of flight AI171, in which at least 270 people died, and how one passenger in seat 11A managed to survive. A bit of good news to remind you that the world's not all bad The war in Gaza and Israel's intensifying occupation of the West Bank have taken an unimaginable toll on Palestinian children. Their injuries, deaths, and displacement have dominated the news, but what about their inner lives? Acclaimed photographer Misan Harriman set out to explore this by hosting a photography workshop for Palestinian children who fled to Egypt. He gave them cameras, taught them how to use them – and stepped back. The result is a powerful, series of intimate and sometimes heartbreaking images. 'They understand what bearing witness means,' Harriman says. 'It's just a beautiful, maybe even cathartic experience for them.' And finally, the Guardian's puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply
The Independent
40 minutes ago
- The Independent
Ukraine-Russia war live: Day of mourning for Kyiv attack begins after G7 fails to condemn Putin
Ukraine is marking a day of mourning on Wednesday after what Volodymyr Zelensky described as one of the worst attacks on Kyiv since the war with Russia began. At least 18 people were killed in the strikes, 16 in Kyiv and two in Odesa, as Russia fired nearly 500 missiles and drones at 27 locations in the capital. Mr Zelensky told the G7 that the attack by Vladimir Putin 's forces proved once again the need for Ukraine to be provided better air defences. He also told the G7 leaders in Canada that "diplomacy is now in a state of crisis" after US president Donald Trump left the summit a day early to address the conflict in the Middle East, skipping their meeting. Hosts Canada then dropped plans for the group to issue a strong statement on the war in Ukraine after resistance from the United States, a Canadian official told reporters. Mr Zelensky said Western allies need to continue calling on Mr Trump "to use his real influence" to force an end to the war. Trump administration 'disbands group focused on pressuring Russia' Trump administration officials have shelved an inter-agency working group created to formulate strategies for pressuring Russia into speeding up peace talks with Ukraine, it has been claimed. The group was established earlier in the spring but lost steam in May as it became increasingly clear that Donald Trump was not interested in adopting a more confrontational stance toward Moscow, three US officials told Reuters. "It lost steam toward the end because the president wasn't there. Instead of doing more, maybe he wanted to do less,' one official was quoted as saying. The final blow came roughly three weeks ago, when most members of the White House National Security Council, who were coordinating the group – including the entire team dealing directly with the Ukraine war – were dismissed as part of a broad purge, they alleged. Arpan Rai18 June 2025 06:48 North Korea's Kim met Putin's top security official Shoigu North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met Russia's top presidential security adviser Sergei Shoigu in Pyongyang yesterday as the two discussed a "special military operation" in the Kursk region bordering Ukraine, state media KCNA reported today. Mr Kim and Mr Shoigu, secretary of Russia's Security Council, discussed cooperation plans for Moscow's rebuilding of the Kursk region, the report said, confirming earlier reports of the meeting by Russian media. North Korea will send 5,000 military construction workers and 1,000 sappers to the region to help rebuild it after the Ukrainian incursion that North Korean troops helped Moscow repel this year, Mr Shoigu was cited as saying by the Russian state news agency TASS today. His visit to Pyongyang and meeting with Mr Kim came nearly two weeks after his last meeting with the leader of the reclusive state on 4 June. Plans to commemorate the "heroic feats" of North Korean soldiers in the operations in the Kursk region, a part of Russia which Ukrainian forces infiltrated last year, were also discussed during the meeting, KCNA said. Arpan Rai18 June 2025 06:09 Zelensky informs G7 leaders of Russia's attack across Ukraine: 'A difficult night' Volodymyr Zelensky discussed the overnight Russian attacks from Tuesday that killed 15 people and injured 150-plus in his country as he met with allies at G7 summit. "Our families had a very difficult night, one of the biggest attacks from the very beginning of this war,' he said. "We need support from allies and I'm here," Mr Zelensky said. He added, "We are ready for the peace negotiations, unconditional ceasefire. I think it's very important. But for this, we need pressure." Canadian prime minister Mark Carney said the attack "underscores the importance of standing in total solidarity with Ukraine." While the summit was meant to showcase unity on top global issues, no joint statement on the conflict in Ukraine was released. Arpan Rai18 June 2025 05:48 Zelensky thanks Canada for military aid and Russia sanctions Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky departed from the G7 summit yesterday with new aid from host Canada for its war against Russia. But before exiting, he warned that diplomacy is in "crisis" after the leaders missed the chance to press US president Donald Trump for more action. 'Today, we have concrete decisions on increased military support, new tranches of aid funded by frozen Russian assets, and additional sanctions targeting what fuels Russia's war. It is important that partners are ready not only to support our defence now, but also to rebuild Ukraine together after the war ends,' Mr Zelensky said. Arpan Rai18 June 2025 05:30 Video report: Russian drone attack hits residential building in Kyiv with 14 killed Arpan Rai18 June 2025 05:19 Starmer tightens screws on Putin as he announces raft of fresh sanctions against Russia Sir Keir Starmer has promised to keep 'tightening the screws' on Vladimir Putin as he announced a raft of fresh sanctions on dozens of new Russian finance, military and energy targets. The prime minister is piling fresh pressure on the Russian war machine and seeking to win further backing from G7 leaders at a key summit in Canada. After repeated refusals from Putin to engage in peace talks, and fresh Russian strikes on Kyiv on Tuesday, the PM said his sanctions will 'choke off his ability to continue his barbaric war' in Ukraine. Starmer tightens screws on Putin with raft of fresh sanctions against Russia Keir Starmer said his sanctions would choke off Putin's ability to continue his war Arpan Rai18 June 2025 05:18 Trump unaware of major Russian attack on Kyiv when asked by reporter Donald Trump appeared to be unaware of a major Russian attack that killed at least 15 people and injured 116 in Kyiv and Odesa on Tuesday, hours after the assault took place. Asked about the attack by a reporter aboard Air Force One as he travelled back from the G7 summit in Canada – where reports suggested he had been due to meet Volodymyr Zelensky before cutting his trip short – Mr Trump said: 'When was that? When?' Told that the attack was very recent, the US president replied: 'Just now? You mean as I'm walking back to see you, that's when it took place? Sounds like it. I'll have to look at it.' The Kyiv Independent reported that seven hours later, the White House was still yet to comment on the Russian attack. Arpan Rai18 June 2025 04:50 Trump's early exit forces G7 to abandon joint statement on Ukraine Canada dropped plans for the G7 to issue a strong statement on the war in Ukraine after resistance from the United States, a Canadian official told reporters. The G7 wealthy nations struggled to find unity over the conflict in Ukraine after Trump expressed support for Russian president Vladimir Putin and left a day early to address the Israel-Iran conflict from Washington. Canadian prime minister Mark Carney said Ottawa would provide C$2bn ($1.47bn) in new military assistance for Kyiv as well as impose new financial sanctions. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said he had told the G7 leaders that "diplomacy is now in a state of crisis" and said they need to continue calling on Donald Trump "to use his real influence" to force an end to the war, in a post on his Telegram account. Arpan Rai
Telegraph
an hour ago
- Telegraph
Putin under pressure to declare war on Ukraine
When Ukraine smuggled dozens of drones into the back of freight trucks and launched a surprise attack on Vladimir Putin's prized nuclear bombers, Russia's most radical voices were furious. 'Shock and outrage' is how one high-ranking Russian official described the mood in the Kremlin the day after the strike. Another Russian official told The Telegraph: 'Like every thinking patriot, I took it as a personal tragedy.' The fury ran so deep in some quarters that there were renewed calls for Putin to 'declare war' on Ukraine – a demand that may seem baffling to Western observers, given that the conflict is already Europe's bloodiest since the Second World War. But amongst Russia's hardline nationalist elite, there is growing belief that Putin has not gone far enough, that he should formally declare war, recruit a million more men, and wipe out Volodymyr Zelensky's government with daily missile strikes on Kyiv. The Telegraph spoke to Kremlin insiders to assess whether Ukraine's drone attack – dubbed Operation Spider Web – might push Russia to escalate even further. All agreed to speak on condition of anonymity. 'Explosions, drones, sabotage, and possibly even terrorist attacks are what the future may hold for us if the Zelensky regime is not completely destroyed,' said a current high-ranking Russian government official. He described himself as hawkish and admitted sympathising with Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner warlord who led a failed mutiny against Putin in June 2023 and was later killed in a plane crash. 'If Ukraine ceases to exist in its current form, the criminal underground will be demoralised,' he claimed. Yet despite the scale of Ukraine's strike, which damaged at least 20 Russian nuclear bombers, according to US estimates, the Kremlin has so far stuck to a more cautious approach. 'This did not catalyse a political discussion or a change in the format of military operations,' said a former senior Kremlin official who once directed operations against Ukraine. 'In the Russian power system, where inertia and preserving the current balance are essential, that speaks volumes.' Another source, based in an analytical centre close to Russia's defence ministry was blunt: 'Could the president declare war on Kyiv? Right now, unlikely. As cynical as it may sound, the leadership is satisfied with the current situation.' The hawkish opposition Traditionally, opposition to Putin has come from liberal critics. But since the invasion, a new breed of nationalist opposition has emerged – figures who claim the Russian president is too cautious. The roots of this anger go back to 2014, when some hardliners accused Putin of failing to fully support Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. One of the most prominent is Igor Girkin – also known as Strelkov – a former FSB officer and leading figure in the 'Angry Patriots', a faction demanding Ukraine's total destruction. After criticising Russia's handling of the war, Girkin was jailed for extremism in 2024. 'I serve the Fatherland!' he shouted after the verdict. Such figures may be marginal, but they wield outsized influence inside Russia's security apparatus. 'The fact they're the guys with the guns means the Kremlin has to at least be aware of them,' Mark Galeotti, a British historian and expert on Russian security, told The Telegraph. Why declare war? To most in the West, the conflict is clearly a war. But Putin still refers to it as a ' special military operation ' – a distinction that matters to Russia's hawks. They argue that only a formal war declaration would permit full-scale escalation – daily inter-continental missile strikes, mass mobilisation, and perhaps even the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Earlier this month, the nationalist podcast Russians with Attitude argued: 'Liberal Putinism has its perks – comfortable, modern, and nearly sanction-proof. A true 21st-century experience. But the cons are clear – soft-glove warfare, sparing enemy leadership, and burying failure.' Currently, most Russian soldiers are volunteers attracted by pay packets of about 200,000 roubles (£1,900) a month – a significant sum in rural areas. Declaring war could enable the mobilisation of two million reservists. 'The government and the authorities would essentially be given carte blanche to move the country on to an explicit war footing,' said Emily Ferris, Russia analyst at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). But even as the bloodshed continues, the Kremlin has been careful to shield most Russians from its effects. At the outset of the invasion in 2022, Putin banned the words 'war' and 'invasion' from the media. Recruitment has been focused on the outer regions, not Moscow or St Petersburg. Russians may be dying in droves, but they do so mostly out of sight. In Moscow, Artyom, a cybersecurity researcher who did not want to give his real name, told The Telegraph that most young people trust in Putin's decisions as the country 'stands proud' with living standards still high despite the sanctions. Cracks in the illusion The Kremlin is forecast to spend 6.3 per cent of GDP on defence this year, which is the highest since the Cold War but not what would be expected of a country on a full war-time footing. For comparison, Ukraine spent 34 per cent of its GDP on defence last year. British defence spending as a percentage of GDP rose to more than 50 per cent during the Second World War. 'Mobilisation undermines economic stability,' said one current government employee. According to him, those close to Putin are able to persuade the Russian president that mass mobilisation would be a step towards the war effort's collapse. 'And why is it needed now? We have Kalibr missiles, we have volunteers. Their resources are not yet exhausted,' he added. A new wave of mobilisation would mean not only economic strain but also a public acknowledgement that the Kremlin is not succeeding in its three-year war against its neighbour. 'That is too costly an admission in a situation where everything hinges on the illusion of control,' noted the former high-ranking Kremlin official. While that illusion may not last forever, experts believe Putin's military will be able to fight at the current rate into next year, and possibly for years. 'I think next year is when a certain number of economic chickens come home to roost,' Mr Galeotti said. 'But the Russians will be able to fight this war for years.' The Kremlin appears to agree. Vladimir Medinsky, Putin's chief negotiator, recently told The Wall Street Journal that Russia could continue fighting for 'another 21 years' – invoking Peter the Great's long war with Sweden. Putin's popularity has surged since the invasion of Ukraine, according to both state-owned polls and those of the Leveda Centre, an independent institution that has frequently drawn the Kremlin's ire. However, that could change if Putin were to start mass mobilisation. There's also the question of fear. 'As soon as you call it war, every parent who has got a kid doing national service or going to be soon is going to start getting scared that they are about to be sent to the front,' said Mr Galeotti. In other words, escalation is not without political risk. While nationalist bloggers and pro-war influencers dominate Telegram and the Z-pilled commentariat, the Kremlin is all too aware of how fragile domestic control might become if the war truly came home. That explains Putin's brutal repression. There is no longer an organised war party in Russia. The prominent figures of that camp – and liberal opponents – have been removed. Mr Prigozhin, who at one time had been close to Putin, was killed in a suspected bombing weeks after his failed mutiny. Girkin is in prison. Alexei Navalny, Russia's most popular politician, died in a penal colony. This served as a signal from Putin to anyone who might display political initiative. Simultaneously, the security services are tightening control over radical patriotic and nationalist circles that have become more active after the invasion. 'So far, no power centre inside the country is capable of imposing its will on Putin,' said a Telegraph source close to the State Duma leadership. Limits of escalation In any case, for all the hawkish rhetoric, Putin's capacity to escalate is not limitless. That much was exposed by his response to Operation Spider Web. Given the significance of the attack, warmongers had demanded a massive response. They didn't get one. There's no denying the horror Ukrainian cities like Kyiv and Kharkiv have faced during massive drone barrages in recent days. But the retaliation was limited, by both Western standards and Russian expectations. 'The response to Operation Spider Web could have been a lot worse. That would've been the time to have a major response, they didn't do it,' Ms Ferris said. Experts believe Putin's military simply lacks the resources. Despite sabre-rattling over tactical nuclear weapons and strategic missile strikes, Russia doesn't have the capacity to launch the kind of daily missile barrages some of its loudest nationalists fantasise about. 'There's always more room for escalation,' Mr Galeotti said. 'Maybe Putin could fire a few hundred extra drones per day. But that's about it.' For now, though, the fantasy of full-scale war – of Oreshnik missiles fired daily at Kyiv, of Zelensky's government turned to rubble, remains just that – a fantasy.
