Scientists sound alarm over unexpected domino effect observed in forests: 'It's very concerning'
As temperatures continue to rise due to ongoing climate change, scientists uncovered an unexpected domino effect that could put forests across North America in danger.
Researchers from the University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory published their findings in the Nature Climate Change journal and predicted that hotter, drier conditions will hinder the growth of a fungus that typically limits the spread of the spongy moth, which is an invasive species "that has caused millions of dollars in damage to forests."
The University of Chicago explained in a news release that the spongy moth "was first introduced to the hardwood forests of New England in 1869," and in the ensuing decades the caterpillars "carved a path of destruction through forests, defoliating and killing trees by the acre." However, the fungus Entomophaga maimaiga caused a lethal infection in spongy moths that curbed the spread, "sparing millions of trees."
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While the fungus is a natural combatant that can grow and infect spongy moths before too much damage is done, the release stated that it grows "only if conditions are cool and moist." Greg Dwyer, professor of ecology and evolution at UChicago and senior author of the new study, warned that the reduction of the fungus could lead to a swift turnaround within the moth population and put forests at a significant risk.
"Even small reductions in mortality rate for the moths lead to big increases in defoliation," Dwyer said. "If they don't get killed off when they're at low density one year, then the next year they'll be back at higher density. You get this multiplication process going on."
Like most invasive species, the spongy moth poses a significant threat to the environment, so combatants like the fungus are essential to mitigate its impact. Rising temperatures and changing weather patterns caused by climate change can create favorable conditions for these invasive species to thrive and spread more rapidly.
According to UChicago, the study's results showed that "as climate change brings hotter and drier conditions to forests, fungal infection rates over the next few decades will drop sharply — meaning that more moths will survive to destroy more trees."
To make things even more worrying, Dwyer reported seeing the effects of these changes sooner than expected, as below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures in recent years have already led to spongy moth outbreaks.
"Our projections were pessimistic, but probably not pessimistic enough. It's very concerning," Dwyer said.
Dwyer said he hopes his research spotlights the importance of taking multiple species into consideration when predicting the effects of climate change.
"The vast majority of previous climate change studies look at individual organisms, but a small amount of climate change can have a big effect when you compound it across multiple species," Dwyer said. "So, computer models are crucial for understanding the effects of climate change on species interactions."
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