5 key factors that could make the difference in who wins Game 7 of NBA Finals

Indianapolis Star

3 hours ago

OKLAHOMA CITY – Throughout the playoffs and the NBA Finals in particular, Pacers coach Rick Carlisle has been either hesitant or simply resistant to questions that in some way involve strategy either when asked about one the Pacers employed in the previous game or what they might do in the next.
That's apparently in part because Carlisle has no interest in risking giving away state secrets, but it's also because this series has had such drastic swings from game-to-game that trying to analyze what comes next has been a consistently futile endeavor.
With the series tied 3-3 heading into Sunday night when the Pacers and Thunder will play the first Game 7 in the NBA Finals since the Cavs and Warriors played one in 2016, there's only so much reason to look at Games 1-6 to get an idea of how Game 7 might go.
Each team has lost a home game. Each team has lost a game by double figures. Each team has seen a lead slip away with a terrible fourth quarter. The Thunder handled the Pacers in Game 5 at home only for the Pacers to respond by crushing them at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. The Thunder have won two games in a row in the series and the Pacers have not, but even that doesn't seem relevant with the series heading to a deciding game.
"You never know how it's going to go," Carlisle said. "I'd be lying if I said this has gone exactly as I expected because each playoff series, each game is a different thing. Each game takes on a different personality, has different characteristics. Different guys step up. Different situations happen, etc. The truth is that nothing else previous to this matters at all now. We're just down to one game and one opportunity. We're really looking forward to it."
Still, for all the up-and-down of this series, there are at least some patterns that have emerged each team has some sense of what's most important for them to beat or at least stay close with the other. What follows are some of the facets of the game mostly likely to determine Game 7 and therefore the series.
1. The turnovers — and points off turnovers — battle
The Pacers and Thunder entered the series with the same general relationship to turnovers. They tend not to commit many, they cause a lot and they are most dangerous when they can turn steals into easy transition baskets.
In the regular season, the Thunder led the league in steals (10.3 per game) and opponent turnovers (17.0 per game) and they committed the fewest turnovers per game (11.7). The Pacers finished ninth in steals (8.5 per game), 11th in opponent turnovers (15.0 per game) and tied for third in fewest turnovers committed (13.2 per game). The Thunder led the league in points off turnovers (21.8 per game) while the Pacers finished 12th (18.3 per game) and the Thunder allowed the fewest points off turnovers per game (12.7) while the Pacers allowed the fifth fewest (15.9 per game). In the playoffs, the Thunder rank first in points off turnovers while the Pacers are second and the Thunder rank second in fewest points off turnovers while the Pacers are fourth in the category.
The turnover battle therefore felt important to determining which team could adhere closest to its season-long identity and that has indeed been the case. The Pacers committed 25 turnovers in Game 1, but the Thunder couldn't put them away and allowed them to claw back in for a comeback victory because they turned those to just 11 points. The Pacers won Game 3 with a 21-14 lead in the points-off-turnovers battle and Game 6 with a 19-13 lead in the category. The Thunder outscored the Pacers 57-32 off turnovers in Games 4 and 5 including 32-9 in Game 5 and won both games. All told, the Thunder have outscored the Pacers 18.2-15.5 in points off turnovers per game, but that puts both teams below their season averages.
Each team has done a better job of swarming on defense and getting their hands on the ball at home, so the Thunder would seem to have an advantage here, but if the Pacers keep the Thunder from steals and therefore keep them from running, they have a much better chance of defeating them in a half-court game. The Pacers can afford to lose the points-off-turnovers battle, but if they can keep the margin close that gives them a shot.
2. 3-point shooting
The Thunder led the points-in-the-paint battle fairly convincingly because MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and All-NBA wing Jalen Williams have been so relentlessly effective at getting the ball in there and scoring. Gilgeous-Alexander led the NBA in scoring because he's so good at getting to the paint for mid-range jump shots or layups and drawing fouls. Williams ability to blow-by defenders and score has been highlighted throughout the series, especially in his 40-point performance in Game 5.
The Thunder have outscored the Pacers by an average of 44.7-38.7 points per game in the paint this series. They're also averaging 25.7 made free throws per game to the Pacers' 19.8 per game.
But 3-pointers have largely been the Pacers' equalizer as they've made 13.0 per game to the Thunder's 10.0 per game. Their Game 1 comeback was fueled by 18 3s including 10-on-20 attempts in the second half and six on 10 attempts in the fourth quarter while the Thunder finished 11-of-30 from beyond the arc including 0-of-5 in the fourth. In Game 6, the Pacers made 15 3s to the Thunder's eight with five of Oklahoma City's 3s coming in the fourth quarter when the game had already been decided compared to just one of Indiana's.
However, the Thunder's wins have also been fueled by the 3-ball and they've proven to be a sharp-shooting team all season, ranking sixth in the NBA in both 3-pointers made and 3-point percentage. They hit 14 3s each in Game 2 and Game 5, their most convincing wins. They also proved they can win without the 3 with their Game 4 victory coming despite a 3-of-16 performance from beyond the arc.
For both teams, the best outside shooters in the series have been role players. Forward Aaron Nesmith leads the Pacers with 16 3s on 33 attempts (48.5%). Forward Obi Toppin is next with 13 on 33 attempts. All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton also has 13 but he's needed 41 attempts to get there for a shaky 31.7% clip. Guards Andrew Nembhard (9-of-23), T.J. McConnell (3-of-5) and Ben Sheppard (4-of-11) have hit some big shots on relatively low volume.
For the Thunder, guard Luguentz Dort (15-of-31) wing Aaron Wiggins (10-of-21) and guard Alex Caruso (8-of-20) have come through with important shots while their stars have struggled from outside. Gilgeous-Alexander is 6-of-21 from 3, Williams is 6-of-23 and star young center Chet Holmgren is 2-of-17. Cason Wallace, who made 35.6% of his 3s this year and 41.9% last year, is 3-of-13 so far. Sharpshooter Isaiah Joe is 5-of-9 from 3 but four of his five makes have come in the Thunder's decisive losses in Game 3 and Game 6.
It tends to be the case role players shoot better at home and the Thunder have proven that to be the case with Wiggins, Wallace and Dort combining for 10 3s in Game 5 and Wiggins and Caruso combining for nine in Game 2. However the Pacers are 43-of-109 from 3 at the Paycom Center in the Finals (39.4%) so even if the Thunder pick it up they can keep pace.
3. Bench Production
The Pacers and Thunder both consider depth to be among their most important strengths, so it stands to reason that bench scoring has played a critical role in the series.
In four of the six games, the winning team has been the one that scored the most points off the bench including all three of the Pacers' wins. The Thunder bench outscored the Pacers' 48-34 in Game 2 but lost 49-18 in Game 3 and those were definitive figures in those two games.
The Pacers lead the series in bench scoring with 41.5 points per game to the Thunder's 30.8, their bench players are shooting 48.9% from the floor while the Thunder subs are making 44.5% of their shots and the Pacers' bench is also averaging more rebounds (15.8-14.8) and assists (7.0-5.7) per game than the Thunder. However, Oklahoma City's subs are shooting better from 3-point range, making 44.3% of their attempts compared to the Pacers' 39.1% and they're averaging more steals (4.7-4.3) per game.
Pacers subs T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin have been two of their most consistent performers with Toppin averaging 12.8 points and 5.5 rebounds per game in the series and McConnell averaging 11.3 points on 53.7% shooting, 4.5 assists and 2.3 steals per game. Thunder guard Alex Caruso is averaging 10.2 points per game and been one of the team's top defenders. Wings Bennedict Mathurin of the Pacers and Aaron Wiggins have been X-Factors. Mathurin scored 27 points on 9-of-12 shooting in the Pacers' Game 3 win, but he has a total of 17 points on 4-of-19 shooting since. Wiggins scored 18 points in Game 2 and 14 in Game 5 in wins, but he has a total of nine points on 2-of-11 shooting in the other four games.
4. Defense on the stars
Game 7s are often the games when superstars become legends. LeBron James posted a 27-point, 11-rebound, 11-assist triple-double in the last NBA Finals Game 7 and had two steals and three blocks including the chase-down swat that counts as one of the high points in his pantheon-caliber career. He had 37 points in the previous Finals Game 7 for the Heat against the Spurs in 2013.
Kobe Bryant had 23 points and 15 rebounds in a messy Game 7 win for the Lakers over the Celtics in 2010. Tim Duncan had 25 of the Spurs' 81 points when they beat the Pistons in 2005.
So big burdens will fall on the shoulders of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams for the Thunder and Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam for the Pacers. And big burdens will fall on the players charged with guarding them and with the coaches trying to create defensive game plans to make them uncomfortable.
Gilgeous-Alexander, the league MVP in 2024-25 and the league's leading scorer, is averaging 30.5 points per game in the series on 47.5% shooting, but Andrew Nembhard and the Pacers have made him look mortal in the Thunder's losses, especially Game 6 when they held him to 21 points on 7-of-15 shooting. After pressing him full-court all series, they moved back their pick-up points a little but brought increased ball pressure in the halfcourt and harassed him into eight turnovers. Williams is averaging 24.2 points per game in the series but the Pacers held him under 20 in three of the first six games including Game 6 when he scored just 16 on 6-of-13 shooting.
Haliburton has had to deal with Dort and Caruso and those assignments have been difficult and his numbers are down from his regular season stats and his playoff stats prior to the Finals. He's averaging 14.8 points per game on 44.7% shooting and 31.7% shooting to go with 6.8 assists per game. However, he does have a pair of double-doubles and posted 14 points and five assists despite a strained right calf in Game 6.
Siakam has proven to be the toughest assignment for the Thunder as he's been guarded by defenders who are either undersized (Williams and Caruso) or oversized (Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein) compared to him. He's leading the Pacers with 19.8 points per game.
5. Coaching
Oklahoma City's Mark Daigneault is one of the most promising young coaches to come through the NBA in some time. At 40 years old, he already has a Coach of the Year award to his name and this year he coached the Thunder to 68 wins, the fifth-highest regular season total in NBA history.
Still, Daigneault entered these playoffs fully aware of what he was up against in 65-year-old Pacers coach Rick Carlisle who ranks 11th all-time in regular season coaching wins (993) and 10th in playoff wins (86). After spending six straight games across the chess board from him, he's even more impressed.
"Humbling," Daigneault said when asked to describe the experience. "He's a great coach. Their team plays with a ruthlessly consistent identity. They really compete. They are never out of a game. They have done an unbelievable job collectively of building the team to the point where they can get to this point and perform the way they have to this point. It's been the case, there's not a lot of nights where you feel like you're at an advantage from a coaching standpoint. There's great coaches in the league, and he's certainly right at the top of the list."
Haliburton describes Carlisle as a "savant" and he's managed to come through with wrinkles throughout the series that have shifted the momentum, especially when the Pacers were reeling after losses. He's turned up full-court defensive pressure and turned it down for the purpose of ratcheting up half-court pressure. He's found ways to get the ball in the paint when the Pacers have struggled and found ways to cut down on turnovers when those got too high. He's found mismatches to attack and ways to keep players involved when the Thunder were focused on taking them out.
But Daigneault has also had counters of his own, changing lineups to create advantageous defensive matchups and to lean into their size and after the Pacers rallied back to take Game 1 on the road he managed to help engineer a comeback late in Game 4 to give the Thunder homecourt advantage back.
The experience factor would still seem to play in Carlisle's favor but after six games of being humbled, Daigneault has certainly learned from coaching against an old master. He doesn't necessarily have to outsmart Carlisle, but if he might have to neutralize him.