Cowboys key to beating Eagles in Week 1 centers around this Prescott advantage over Hurts
Cowboys key to beating Eagles in Week 1 centers around this Prescott advantage over Hurts
Several high profile dates on the NFL's 2025 schedule have begun to leak and the Dallas Cowboys appear front and center in Week 1. The Cowboys have the privilege of kicking the season off, traveling to Philadelphia to take on the Super Bowl winning Eagles on Thursday night of opening week.
Playing the defending champs is always a big deal but this time around it packs extra punch since the Eagles reside in the NFC East with Dallas. It's safe to say the Cowboys will have their work cut out for them since Philadelphia returns a dominant roster and stands as the early favorite to repeat their Super Bowl success this season.
Position group after position group the Eagles look like the superior team on paper with the Cowboys only arguably looking stronger at the quarterback, special teams and defensive end spots. The 2024 Eagles offense ranked No. 6 overall, posting the eighth-ranked EPA passing offense and the top-ranked EPA rushing offense. Operating behind the top-rated offensive line in football, the Eagles were a dominant attack in 2024 and appear to be geared up for much of the same in 2025.
The Cowboys' defense has gone through yet another realignment. Matt Eberflus replaces Mike Zimmer as defensive coordinator and hopes to turn around the 28th-ranked defense in a single offseason. The Cowboys' inability to stop opponent's rushing attacks was especially problematic last season, making this Week 1 matchup a nightmare scenario right out of the gate.
It's clear the Dallas offense will have to score points and keep pace if the Cowboys hope to start off the new season on a winning note. The addition of George Pickens helps immensely but the Cowboys will also need competent pass protection from their tackles, an effective running game to bleed the clock, and elite play design and play calling from head coach Brian Schottenheimer.
The key to winning in Philadelphia will be about keeping the score close and putting the pressure on the two passers late. Quarterbacking isn't done in a vacuum, but recent data indicates the Cowboys have the advantage when playing from behind.
Based on EPA/dropback when trailing in the final five minutes, Dak Prescott ranks No. 6 in the NFL since 2020. Only Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes rank ahead of him. That's pretty good company to keep.
Jalen Hurts is a much different story. Aided enormously by his All-Star cast, Hurts rarely has to do much heavy lifting as a passer late in games. When he does, the results are rather paltry. Trailing in the final five minutes, Hurts ranks 37th in the NFL, behind names like Bryce Young, Daniel Jones and Mac Jones.
Even with quite possibly the best pass catching group in the league, Hurts struggles to perform as a passer when trailing late. It's an advantage that overwhelming tilts in Dallas' favor and points towards what the Cowboys should be striving for as they open the season on the road in Philadelphia.
Identifying that mismatch is the easy part. The tricky part is getting this new-look Cowboys team organized enough to keep things close against the most talented roster in football. That might have to be an analysis for another day.
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Victor Wembanyama is a 7-foot-5 alien who warps the court on both ends and might be the most important draft pick since LeBron James. The San Antonio Spurs have one job: don't screw it up. The modern blueprint is crystal clear: space the floor, play with pace and surround your star with shooters and decision-makers. Instead, they're on track to stack three shaky-shooting ball-handlers like it's still 2005. Last year, San Antonio drafted Stephon Castle, who won Rookie of the Year. At the deadline, they traded for De'Aaron Fox. And now they're expected to take Dylan Harper with the second pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, a 6-5 lefty who thrives with the ball in his hands. That's potentially adding three shot-creators in 12 months with not a reliable jumper between them. Advertisement San Antonio's vision is obvious: give Wemby playmakers so he doesn't have to do everything himself. But in today's NBA, it's not just about who can create, it's about who can space the floor. 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He's capable of making every pass on the floor, and his feel should only improve over time. (Taylor Wilhelm/Yahoo Sports Illustration) Harper compares himself to Cade Cunningham, which makes sense since they're both jumbo guards with an all-around offensive skill set and defensive versatility. Much like Cunningham, Harper looks like a future starter at a minimum, and maybe much more. But one difference is this: Cade went first overall to a team that cleared the runway for him. San Antonio already has Castle, Fox and Wemby. There's no runway left. But Harper's path to stardom likely requires space, touches and shooters around him, not sharing a clogged paint. Advertisement And that's the paradox. Harper's talent justifies the pick. His fit makes it risky. If San Antonio takes him, it is effectively copying the Oklahoma City and Indiana blueprint with multiple playmakers and positional flexibility. But those teams work because they surround their stars with players who can either shoot, slash or process quickly enough to keep defenses honest. And their stars can play that way too. San Antonio's potential perimeter trio wouldn't check all of those boxes. They're more slashers, not spacers who stretch defenses. None scares you without the rock, and each of them has his respective issues with it, too. The Thunder and Pacers show players can improve their shots. Tyrese Haliburton dropped in the draft because of concerns about his form, and now he's hitting game-winners in the NBA Finals. Andrew Nembhard entered the league as an unpolished shooter and is in the middle of a playoff run making nearly half of his 3s. In Oklahoma City, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Lu Dort and basically the entire roster have improved. Of course, it helps when you hire Chip Engelland. In 2022, the Thunder poached the NBA's most respected shot doctor after he spent nearly two decades in San Antonio. Since then, Oklahoma City's shooting has trended up. San Antonio's has flatlined. Jeremy Sochan is just as suspect of a shooter as he was at Baylor. Keldon Johnson has regressed. Devin Vassell has smooth mechanics and touch, but even he's never cracked 40% from 3. The Spurs used to be the league's gold standard for skill development. Now no one's getting better as a shooter except for Wemby himself. But in his two seasons, the Spurs have ranked 28th and 20th in 3-point percentage. Advertisement Is having three guards with iffy jumpers really the best way for the Spurs to optimize Wembanyama? Is it best if your second-, third- and fourth-best players all have erratic jumpers? Because this isn't just about skill sets overlapping in the backcourt, it's about how they impact the generational player they're supposed to elevate. The Wemby fit We've yet to see Wembanyama surrounded by four shooters. We haven't even seen him run two-man actions with a competent partner. Inverted pick-and-rolls. Quick slips into space. Dribble handoffs. Stuff that would weaponize his passing and make life easier for everyone. Wemby averaged just 4.8 handoffs per game this past season. For comparison: Domantas Sabonis led the league at 21.1. Rookie Alex Sarr logged 8.1. Even Zach Collins, Wemby's own backup, had more at 4.9. It's absurd that this is true. Yes, Wemby is often the receiver of a handoff. But with his vision, shooting and ball-handling, he should be initiating more of those actions in an ecosystem that provides him space to go to work. The whole point of adding shot-creators is to get Wembanyama easy shots in the paint. No surprises there: Wemby shot an absurd 79% at the rim last season. He's a cheat code in the paint. But he took only 3.2 restricted area attempts per game. That's the same volume as Lauri Markkanen, Rui Hachimura and Jonathan Kuminga. You know who else took more? Jeremy Sochan. Yes, Sochan had 5.1 per game. Sochan had more rim attempts than Wemby. What are we doing here? Advertisement The problem is obvious: there's no room. Sochan can't shoot (career 29% from deep) and the rest of the perimeter isn't any better. So even though Wemby can shoot, he has to for the offense to breathe. The Spurs have added creators, but they haven't added spacing to open lanes for Wemby. The paths forward The Spurs are at a crossroads. Their actions say they want to win now. Their roster says they're not ready. And Wembanyama's rookie contract clock is ticking. So, what should they do? Option 1: Draft Harper, keep Fox and Castle In 2022, the Kings chose Fox over Tyrese Haliburton. Not because Haliburton was worse, but because they didn't think the two could coexist. Maybe they were right. Trading Haliburton for Sabonis helped end a 16-year playoff drought. Advertisement But in hindsight, they acted too fast. Now Haliburton is clearly the better point guard and running one of the best offenses in the league, and the Kings are still trying to figure out what their post-Fox future looks like. The lesson isn't don't choose. The lesson is don't choose before you have to. That's the case for keeping the trio intact. Draft Harper. Let it breathe. Give the coaching staff a year or two or three to figure out who works best with Wemby. Castle's cutting, Harper's slashing, Fox's speed all bring value. Maybe it works. And on defense, it should. Castle was already guarding top options as a rookie. Harper has the size and instincts to be switchable. And when Fox is locked in, he's a defensive playmaker fighting through screens and picking up steals. If the Spurs stick with all three, they could smother perimeter scorers and funnel everything to the league's best rim protector. But Wemby is such a dominant paint protector that he can erase defensive breakdowns. What he can't do is manufacture spacing for himself on the other end. So there'd be more pressure for them to figure it out on offense no matter how good the team's defense becomes. And that concern is shared for the guards, not just Wemby. Harper projects best as a lead initiator with shooting around him, not as the third wheel on a team that can't space the floor. There were better lottery outcomes for him. And if Harper is the pick, what happens to Castle? He's not a shooter. He's not running the offense. So is the reigning Rookie of the Year now a low-usage cutter who doesn't space the floor? It's unclear how Castle's development tracks next to Fox and Harper. Advertisement This option doesn't just assume internal development. It assumes internal compliance that no one pushes for touches, for usage, for clarity. It assumes Wemby will keep deferring while the team figures itself out. San Antonio has a pile of extra first-rounders and zero albatross deals, so it can patch holes on the fly if things sour. So they could take Harper and wait. But if they're wrong, they won't just waste touches. They'll waste time. Option 2: Trade Castle If San Antonio believes Harper has higher long-term upside as a lead initiator, they could explore the idea of moving Castle while his value is sky-high. He's the reigning Rookie of the Year. He's young, versatile and scalable. And he plays with a maturity beyond his years. But if his jumper never comes around, and Fox and Harper are ahead of him on the ball, his role could get squeezed quickly. Advertisement Maybe the Bucks would prefer Castle and picks over Harper in a deal for Giannis Antetokounmpo. Maybe the Celtics bite on a Castle-Vassell-picks package for Jaylen Brown. Maybe another young star becomes available. Option 3: Trade down Teams like the Jazz, Wizards, Pelicans and Nets all need initiators. Maybe one of them would offer a haul to move up for Harper. Looking at the history of trade downs, usually a team would give up their own first and one future first. But considering Harper's upside, perhaps the Spurs could haggle for much more. The Nets, holding the No. 8 pick and a mountain of future firsts plus Cam Johnson, are the most interesting trade partner. Harper is a local kid with star potential, and the Nets have a clean slate he could grow with. If the Spurs want to pivot toward shooting, Johnson plus picks is a logical foundation. Advertisement In that range, Duke wing Kon Knueppel, Arizona forward Carter Bryant and Washington State wing Cedric Coward would all be strong fits. They bring shooting and versatility, which is exactly what the current Spurs core lacks. The question: Are any of them worth passing on Harper's ceiling for? Option 4: Trade out of the draft for a star The Spurs might not need another teenager. They already have youth like Wemby, Castle, Vassell, Sochan and a war chest of future picks even after adding Fox. So maybe the next move is to skip the draft entirely and chase a star. Right now, the Giannis whispers persist. They've also been linked to Kevin Durant. Around the league, sources say the Spurs have explored packaging the 14th pick with a player to upgrade the roster. Whether that upgrade is marginal or massive depends on who shakes loose, but it's clear San Antonio isn't waiting around. So if Giannis actually is available, maybe San Antonio's willing to put Harper on the table. Advertisement Option 5: Trade Fox Fox signed up to be Tony Parker to Wembanyama's Tim Duncan. But the Spurs weren't planning on drafting another primary ball-handler months later. Plans change. There's a case to move Fox before he signs a four-year, $229 million extension — or even a cheaper hometown discount deal. He turns 28 later this year. He's made just one playoff appearance. He still doesn't have a reliable jumper. And for a guard who lives off speed, any athletic slippage could get ugly fast. And even if he ages gracefully and ends up being by far the most expensive of three quality shot-creators, he won't come close to having the trade value he holds right now. San Antonio has one last window to sell high. Advertisement Harper, on the other hand, is 19 with real long-term upside. Castle is younger, cheaper and easier to fit in because he's a far better cutter and defender than Fox. It's not as if Fox and Wemby made a great first impression. Granted they ran only 46 pick-and-rolls together, but they scored a measly 0.77 points per play. A full training camp might help, but maybe not if the team's shooting situation doesn't improve. Plus Castle and Harper also need touches. Fox/Wemby simply might not be the high-usage combo the Spurs envisioned. If moving Fox were on the table, the logical targets are the teams that were connected to him at the deadline: Miami Heat: Fox for Duncan Robinson, Haywood Highsmith, Nikola Jović, the No. 20 pick and unprotected firsts in 2030 and 2032. Fox upgrades Miami's point guard spot, while San Antonio gets picks and three shooters, including a young piece in Jović. Brooklyn Nets: Fox for Cam Johnson and draft capital. Johnson spaces the floor and fits the timeline. Houston Rockets: Fox (plus Malaki Branham and Blake Wesley) for Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, the 10th pick and future firsts. FVV gives the Spurs a vet, while Smith would be a fascinating fit next to Wemby. Other playmaking-needy teams like the Bulls, Magic, Suns, and Timberwolves could emerge as dark horses. Phoenix is especially interesting. If the Spurs really want Durant, Fox's salary helps make the math work. Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes or Devin Vassell could be added to build a separate bigger deal. Advertisement But there's real risk here. Fox is a known commodity as an All-Star in his prime, capable of carrying an offense, capable of making Wemby's life easier today. Harper is unproven. If his jumper never levels up or his fit with Castle overlaps too much, San Antonio may have traded a sure thing for a question mark. You don't get many chances to pair a young superstar with a reliable point guard who actually wants to be there. If Harper doesn't hit, the Spurs will spend the next five years trying to replace what they already had. When San Antonio traded for Fox, it was trying to make the playoffs. Instead, both Fox and Wemby got hurt. The team cratered. And the lottery gave it an unexpected gift. Don't waste the alien If the Spurs keep loading up on guards with questionable jumpers, they're doing it around a star who should be the gravitational center of the entire offense. Instead, they're building a roster that pulls him to the perimeter while everyone else clogs the lane. Advertisement It's not that Castle, Fox and Harper are bad players. It's that together, they risk becoming a well-intentioned mess. Add inconsistent shooters like Sochan and Johnson, and the Spurs look like a roster that needs less of a tweak and more of an overhaul. Maybe keeping all three guards works. Maybe Castle becomes a league-average shooter, maybe Harper becomes a star and maybe Fox finds his ideal role. But that's a lot of maybes, and this isn't the kind of decision you get to re-do. The Spurs don't just have a top pick. They have a rare opportunity to choose a direction and not waste Wemby's prime untangling a roster that never fit. Advertisement Because we've seen this before. Kevin Garnett in Minnesota. Anthony Davis in New Orleans. Generational bigs held back by years of mismatched rosters and delayed decisions. The cautionary tales are clear. So is the counterexample — and the Spurs know it better than anyone. Tim Duncan's prime was maximized because San Antonio built with precision. Shooting. Defense. Clarity. Manu Ginóbili didn't need the ball to impact the game. Tony Parker could bend defenses without dominating possessions. Everyone fit around Duncan, and San Antonio always evolved with the times as the NBA changed. And because of that, it lasted two decades. Wembanyama deserves that kind of infrastructure. And right now, it feels like the Spurs are building a roster better suited for 2005. But the blueprint has never been clearer: surround your generational star with players who space the floor, make quick decisions and elevate him without always needing the ball to do it. Do that, and Wembanyama changes the sport. Don't, and years from now we'll talk about how the Spurs landed an alien and built a roster that made him look human.
