Israel unbound: Power, expulsion, and the end of illusions

Ammon

2 days ago

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu showed no regard for the "angry" reactions from Arab states—including those with peace treaties with Israel—after he prevented the Arab ministerial delegation from entering the airspace over the West Bank to meet with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. The foreign ministers resorted to a video call instead, expressing their frustration and blaming Netanyahu for blocking prospects for peace and fueling regional escalation.
Netanyahu's message couldn't be clearer: the Palestinian Authority, in his view, is effectively obsolete. He considers the Oslo Accords a historic mistake and regards the Authority as an unwanted entity. The only project he truly supports is the annexation of large parts of the West Bank, the consolidation of control over Jerusalem, and the gradual expulsion of as many Palestinians as possible. His implicit message to the region? This is a new Israel—one that seeks not sympathy, but fear and dominance in the Arab world.
A new set of regional equations is taking shape, rendering outdated dynamics irrelevant. That may well be the code Netanyahu was sending to the Arab ministerial delegation: the "resistance axis" is done. Hezbollah has lost much of its power, Iran is anxious and desperately seeking a new nuclear deal with the U.S., the new Syria is trying to rebuild while fearing Netanyahu's divisive agenda, and Gaza is enduring the worst humanitarian catastrophe since World War II. Eventually, Hamas will be defeated militarily in Gaza—at least that's how the Israeli right thinks. For them, this is a golden opportunity to reset the entire game in the region.
Why would Netanyahu back down? What cost would he even pay if he did? That was the question I posed to my American colleague, who believes Netanyahu is making a grave strategic error that will ultimately backfire and fail to bring Israel lasting security.
By contrast, Tunisian scholar and expert in Jewish and Israeli affairs, Fawzi al-Badawi, recently argued in a lecture at the Institute of Politics and Society in Amman that Netanyahu was the one who best understood the October 7 attack. He seized the moment to reshape Israel's image—and his own—by defining the event as an existential threat. This narrative enabled him to pursue the "dream" of expansion, dominance, and the shift from defense to offense. It gave him the license to intensify the expulsion of Palestinians and accelerate the project of a Greater Israel over all of historic Palestine.
To be fair, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi is doing everything possible on the diplomatic front, leveraging Netanyahu's every move to rally global opinion against him. The Arab stance has become firmer since October 7 and Israel's genocidal war in Gaza, pushing back the Saudi-Israeli normalization process and costing Israel a historic opportunity to integrate formally into the region. There are even reports of disagreements between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Netanyahu over Middle East policies. While this may all be true, how much will it actually change Netanyahu's aggressive behavior or his displacement agenda?
Arab states have gone to great lengths to counter Netanyahu's justifications and even soften Trump's stance, proposing an alternative reconstruction plan for Gaza and a post-war roadmap without Hamas. They also pressured Mahmoud Abbas to reform the Palestinian Authority, naming Hussein al-Sheikh as Vice President. Still, Netanyahu didn't budge, and Trump hasn't pressured him to end the war—nor has he revived any peace initiative, not even his earlier 'Deal of the Century,' which would have sacrificed most of the West Bank, Jerusalem, and the right of return.
So what are the Arabs betting on to stop Netanyahu? The two-state solution? That's now the 'dead man in the room'—everyone knows it's over, but no one dares to say it (except Netanyahu, of course). Why? Because admitting it would force everyone to confront terrifying questions: What comes after the death of peace? What becomes of the Palestinian Authority? What strategic options do the Arabs have in dealing with Israel? Will they accept a future where Palestinians are either expelled or forcibly integrated into neighbouring states?
The Arabs have offered an enticing Gaza reconstruction deal to Trump and Israel, contingent on ending the war and restarting peace talks. But Netanyahu rejected it. So, what can be done to intimidate him, to make him abandon his plans not only for Gaza but also the West Bank and Jerusalem? What price must he pay?
Yes, the global mood is shifting. Europe is criticizing Israel, its global image has taken a hit, U.S. public opinion is evolving, tensions are rising between Netanyahu and the Biden administration, and Israel has lost the normalization opportunity with Saudi Arabia and other major Muslim states, along with significant economic benefits. All true—but Netanyahu weighs that on one scale and his dream of territorial fulfilment on another. And for him, the latter outweighs everything else. Peace can wait. For now, his priority is to alter the facts on the ground in Palestine—an existential goal rooted in Israel's security doctrine. The rest—peace, trade, diplomacy—can come later.
There's an unsettling truth about Netanyahu and the far-right forces now dominating Israel. Despite the mounting international and regional pressure, the current U.S. administration still monitors and suppresses critics of Israel. My American academic friend tells me of a growing list of U.S. scholars facing dismissal and legal threats for opposing the war—ironically, many of them are Jewish. I asked him: 'Is Trump's administration now applying Daniel Pipes' old 'Campus Watch' project?' He replied: 'It's far worse now.'