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Israel-Iran conflict: What are Tehran's nuclear and missile capabilities?
Israel and Iran are at a flashpoint as both sides trade attacks. With a fresh censure from the UN nuclear watchdog, Iran's nuclear and missile programmes are under the spotlight again. With enriched uranium stockpiles near weapons-grade and the region's largest ballistic missile arsenal, how close is Iran to crossing the nuclear threshold? read more
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei views a model of a nuclear facility, in Tehran, Iran, June 11, 2023. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA via Reuters
The confrontation between Tehran and Tel Aviv has reached a tipping point as Israel it claimed were linked to nuclear facilities, ballistic missile manufacturing and senior commanders.
The assault, which Israeli officials described as the beginning of a longer campaign to curb Tehran's atomic ambitions, was followed by Iran launching approximately 100 drones towards Israeli territory.
US intelligence in February had warned that Israel was weighing strikes, potentially aimed at halting Iran's nuclear progress.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signalled such intent, stating his government would 'finish the job' after earlier attacks from Iran on Israel.
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Does Iran have a nuclear weapon?
Despite speculation, Iran does not yet possess a nuclear weapon. However, international analysts widely agree that it has both the technological expertise and industrial infrastructure necessary to produce one relatively quickly if its leadership decides to proceed.
Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), acknowledged in last month that 'the [Iranian] programme runs wide and deep.'
Military personnel stand guard at a nuclear facility in the Zardanjan area of Isfahan, Iran, April 19, 2024, in this screengrab taken from video. WANA via Reuters
Iran's enrichment of uranium — used to fuel nuclear reactors or, at higher levels, nuclear weapons — has reached near-weapons grade at 60 per cent, according to IAEA reports and US officials.
Then-US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated in June 2024 that Iran could potentially produce weapons-grade fissile material within 'one or two weeks.'
Some intelligence reports suggest a covert group of Iranian scientists may be pursuing a more rapid, albeit rudimentary, path to weaponisation.
The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which initially aimed to restrict Iran's ability to develop a nuclear weapon, was abandoned by the US under the first Trump administration in 2018.
A satellite image shows the Natanz nuclear facility in Iran in this handout image dated January 24, 2025. Maxar Technologies via Reuters
Since then, Iran has accelerated its nuclear enrichment activities while curtailing international inspections, particularly since 2021.
In its most recent evaluations, the IAEA concluded that Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium surged by approximately 50 per cent in the three months preceding May — reportedly enough to produce material for up to ten nuclear bombs.
Where does Iran house its nuclear facilities?
Iran's nuclear infrastructure spans over a dozen known locations. The Natanz facility is its primary enrichment centre, while Bushehr hosts its only civilian nuclear power plant on the Persian Gulf coast.
A May 2025 IAEA report also identified three additional sites — Lavisan-Shian, Turquzabad and Varamin — where undeclared nuclear-related activities took place, allegedly involving the use of unreported nuclear material.
A satellite image shows the Arak facility in Iran in this handout image dated February 15, 2025. Maxar Technologies via Reuters
The same IAEA report found that three of the four examined locations had been part of a clandestine nuclear programme that existed until the early 2000s.
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While Iran denies ever pursuing nuclear weapons, these findings support longstanding IAEA and US intelligence assessments that Tehran had a structured weapons programme up until 2003, followed by intermittent experimentation.
On June 6, 2025, the IAEA Board of Governors, comprising 35 nations, passed a resolution formally declaring Iran in breach of its nuclear non-proliferation obligations. The resolution, supported by the US, UK, France and Germany, cited Iran's failure to cooperate with the agency and its inability to explain uranium traces at undeclared sites.
Rafael Grossi stated that the agency's concerns were consistent with past suspicions. Iran rejected the censure and announced plans to construct a new uranium enrichment facility.
A satellite image shows the tunnel complex near the Natanz nuclear facility in Iran in this handout image dated January 24, 2025. Maxar Technologies via Reuters
Diplomatic sources noted that while the resolution hinted at referring Iran to the UN Security Council, that would require a separate resolution — much like in 2006, the last time Iran was declared non-compliant and formally referred.
What are Iran's missile capabilities?
In addition to its nuclear programme, Iran's missile arsenal presents a significant strategic challenge in the region. The country possesses the region's largest inventory of ballistic missiles, according to US intelligence, with some reports suggesting Tehran had over 3,000 such missiles.
These missiles — capable of reaching distances of up to 2,000 kilometres — can strike targets throughout West Asia and parts of Europe. Iran has also used these systems to devastating effect during recent strikes, including its retaliation against Israel in 2024.
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Ballistic missiles, with their high speeds and parabolic flight paths, are notably harder to intercept than drones or cruise missiles.
A hoarding depicting missiles in Tehran, Iran. File Image/AFP
Defence analysts have warned that large conventional warheads, such as those carried by Iran's medium and long-range missiles, could cause mass casualties in populated areas.
Comparisons have been drawn to similar payloads used by Russia in Ukraine and by Israel in Gaza, which reportedly left craters more than 12 metres wide.
Iran also continues to supply drones and short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, enhancing military ties with Moscow amid the war in Ukraine. The provision of these systems has further alarmed Western powers, concerned about Tehran's expanding military-industrial reach.
What about the US-Iran nuclear talks?
The reelection of Donald Trump has reopened the possibility of US-Iran negotiations, with bilateral talks having resumed in Oman early this year.
However, talks remain stagnant, with Iran demanding sanctions relief and Washington pushing for deeper dismantlement of Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Trump has stated his administration will apply 'maximum pressure' while seeking a deal 'stronger' than the 2015 agreement.
The May 2025 IAEA revelations injected new urgency into the talks.
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A satellite image shows the Fordo nuclear facility in Iran, January 24, 2025. Maxar Technologies via Reuters
Many foreign policy analysts argue that should Iran achieve nuclear weapons capability, it could alter the region's strategic balance, embolden Tehran's foreign policy and prompt neighbouring powers like Saudi Arabia to pursue nuclear arms, leading to a proliferation spiral in the region.
Experts also note that Israel's repeated strikes on nuclear sites in Iraq (1981), Syria (2007) and now Iran, reflect a clear doctrine of pre-emptive action to prevent hostile states from acquiring nuclear arms.
However, some warn that further strikes could push Iran into a decisive race toward weaponisation or even provoke withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Earlier this month, IAEA's Grossi cautioned that continued escalation could backfire. 'An Israeli strike could solidify Iran's resolve to build its own nuclear weapon,' he warned.
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Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (left), and Benjamin Netanyahu "The time has come for the Iranian people to unite around its flag and its historic legacy, by standing up for your freedom from the evil and oppressive regime," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Friday in a video statement after Israel struck over 200 military and nuclear sites in Iran. The unannounced strikes were clearly meant to disrupt Tehran's nuclear work and increase the time it would take for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon. However, the number of sites hit, the specific nature of the targets, and remarks from Israeli leaders suggest there may be a wider aim: weakening or even removing Iran's ruling regime. "As we achieve our objective, we are also clearing the path for you to achieve your freedom," Netanyahu said, referring to Israeli strikes that hit targets across Iran, including nuclear sites, killing several top military commanders and nuclear scientists. The attacks early Friday went beyond nuclear plants and missile sites. They also targeted senior members of Iran's military and nuclear experts — moves that, according to a Reuters report, seem designed to damage Iran's image internally and among its partners in the region. These are actions that could affect the stability of Iran's leadership. There is already significant dissatisfaction among many people in Iran due to economic struggles, lack of free expression, and ongoing issues related to women's and minority rights. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Accounting Automation Software Might Help You To Earn More Accounting Automation Software | Search ads Undo In this situation, Netanyahu may be hoping that the extensive airstrikes will lead to unrest within the country that could eventually bring down the Islamic Republic. Some officials in Israel and the United States see the nuclear programme as the main security concern. From that view, Iran should be offered incentives: if it stops pursuing nuclear weapons and ends its support for armed groups, it could have sanctions removed and be reintegrated into the global system. Others believe the real issue is the continued existence of the Islamic Republic. They argue that Iran's leadership is unlikely to change its regional behaviour and is working not to deter Israel, but to destroy it. From this perspective, diplomatic talks only help Iran buy time. A nuclear programme seen as illegal gives cover to maintain sanctions, which they hope will eventually weaken a regime they consider beyond repair. There is no common ground between these two positions. And now, more clearly than before, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to be in the second group. The recent strikes were not mainly focused on nuclear equipment but on top military commanders of the Islamic Republic. The goal, it seems, is not just to set back Iran's nuclear efforts — but to challenge the regime's hold on power, Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, wrote in an article in Foreign Policy. Trying to shake the regime Israel might believe that the recent attacks and killings could destabilize the Iranian government and create an opportunity for a public uprising. This is what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is hoping for. But this approach is risky. Even with the damage caused by Israel's recent attack, there is long-standing hostility toward Israel — not just from Iran's leadership but also from much of its mostly Shi'ite population. That makes it uncertain whether public anger alone could bring down a well-established religious government that has the support of strong security forces. There is no sign that such a series of events will even begin. And even if it does, there's no clarity on what direction it would take, a BBC report said. Power in Iran lies mostly with those who control the military and the economy. Much of this power rests with hardliners in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other unelected groups. These groups don't need to carry out a coup — they already have authority. And they could choose to make Iran more confrontational in response to attacks. Another possible result could be the collapse of the current government, followed by instability in Iran. With a population of nearly 90 million, any unrest in Iran would affect many countries in the Middle East. If Israel is able to remove the Islamic leadership in Tehran, the attack would be seen as successful. But if the leadership stays in place — and history suggests that airstrikes alone rarely bring regime change — then Iran could still keep some part of its nuclear program, Jeffrey Lewis writes. Israel's national security advisor has already said that Iran might still keep parts of its nuclear capability. So what happens then? One possibility Israel sees is that Iran could agree to a deal with US President Donald Trump to give up its nuclear plans. But another possibility is that Iran could follow North Korea's path — leaving the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and eventually developing nuclear weapons. In that case, it is unlikely that Russia or China would support new sanctions. They may not even enforce the ones already in place. Russia has been buying Iranian drones, and China imports Iranian oil. The reasons why Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stopped the country's nuclear weapons program in 2003 — and why he kept that policy — are not fully known. There have been different views within Iran: some have wanted a nuclear weapon, while others have not. Until now, those opposing the bomb have been able to influence policy. But after this recent strike, these discussions will likely change. There will also be new individuals involved in these decisions. People will think about those who are no longer there and ask whether Israel would have acted this way if Iran already had nuclear weapons — or if Israel didn't have them. If the Iranian government doesn't fall, Israel might feel the need to carry out more attacks in the future. Even if this strike has seriously disrupted Iran's nuclear efforts, Iran could restart the program. "In the ideal world, Israel would prefer to see a change of regime, no question about that," Sima Shine, a former chief Mossad analyst and now a researcher at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, was quoted as saying by the news agency Reuters. If Israel succeeds in removing Iran's leadership, there is no guarantee the successor that emerges would not be even more hardline in pursuit of conflict with Israel. "For years, many in Israel have insisted that regime change in Iran would prompt a new and better day - that nothing could be worse than the current theocratic regime," Jonathan Panikoff, a former US deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East was quoted as saying by Reuters. "But history tells us it can always be worse."
