'Anxious' US Has Reached Out on Trade: Chinese State Media
US President Donald Trump's administration has been seeking contact with Beijing to initiate trade talks, according to a state-run media outlet in China. Bloomberg's Minmin Low explains how the Chinese side is framing the behind-the-scenes maneuvering between the world's two largest economies.
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Business Insider
27 minutes ago
- Business Insider
The Scared Stiff Economy
There's no such thing as the perfect time for a big decision. But when I reached out to Julia Coronado, the president of the economics consulting firm MacroPolicy Perspectives, to ask whether it's a good moment to take a significant financial risk, at least in the relative sense, her succinct email reply was telling: "Lol, short answer is no!" Given how complicated major transactions can be, there are plenty of caveats and counterexamples. On the whole, however, it is a particularly bad time for many major moves financially. Given everything that's going on right now, economists and personal finance gurus say that if you're treading water or feeling extra uneasy, you're not alone. " Uncertainty" is the word of the moment. America's tariff policies have shifted dozens of times since President Donald Trump took office. The stock market has been all over the place. The volatility emanating from the White House on immigration, government spending, and the federal workforce is palpable. There are rumblings of a recession and a return of high inflation. Consumer sentiment is in the basement. Across the economy, people feel like they're stuck in place. It's not a great time to change jobs, given the cooling labor market. The housing market isn't terrible — there's a growing amount of inventory out there — but if you're looking to buy now, you're probably lamenting having missed the dirt-cheap mortgage rates of a few years back. People thinking about retiring soon are doing some rethinking, given the current economic and financial market precarity. "It's not that when there's uncertainty or more uncertainty that people stop and don't act, don't make the big purchase, don't make the investment," says Claudia Sahm, the chief economist at New Century Advisors, an investment management firm. "It's often that the bar is higher." The issue at the moment is that while it may be appealing to adopt a wait-and-see approach, later is not synonymous with better. That's the calculation many Americans are facing now: Do I hold out on making a move now while things settle down, or do I take the risk that things will take a turn for the worse? "All we can do now is kind of read tea leaves on the future," says Chris Woods, a financial advisor who founded Silvis Financial. There's that old Wayne Gretzky quote about skating "to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." The issue is that it's hard to guess where things are headed. When you're building up to a major financial leap, you typically sit on it until some level of certainty hits. That's especially true in scenarios where there are serious penalties for changing your mind. I mean, sure, you can offload that new car six months later, but you'd probably rather not. Jonathan Parker, a finance professor at MIT, tells me that a big spike in uncertainty will cause people to delay major spending such as upgrading to a new car, noting that "you might want that money for other purposes." When people make a big financial decision, such as buying a house, investing, or retiring, they want some level of buffer. They leave space for the possibility that some unexpected need will pop up — a medical emergency, an unexpected broken-down car or leaky roof, a lost job, a death in the family. Ideally, consumers don't want to just barely make their mortgage, wind up suddenly tapping the money they stowed away in their stock portfolio, or skimp on their day-to-day needs in retirement. When they take leaps, they want to leave a little side pot available to avoid an unforeseen circumstance. There's only so much a person can control — doing the best job possible at work doesn't insulate you from layoffs or guarantee your pay will increase with prices. Uncertainty makes that buffer harder to calculate and feel confident about having in the future. "In a time of great uncertainty, it's probably not the time you want to stretch with a purchase," Sahm says. This uncertainty may be headache-inducing for individuals trying to make up their minds, but what it might mean for the broader economy is tricky. Consumer spending is America's economic engine — personal expenditures account for about two-thirds of GDP. Ironically, people being worried is, in part, supporting the economy. When consumers are concerned about prices going up, they may pull forward big purchases to get them out of the way now before they get more expensive later. If you're nervous about your washing machine or car going kaput soon or are just looking to upgrade, it may feel prudent to replace them sooner rather than later in case prices go up. This year, consumer spending has jumped because of people trying to get ahead of tariffs. Crummy feelings about the future of the economy have actually been a good thing, spending-wise. "This is one thing that has helped consumer spending stay up while sentiment has really cratered," says Scott Baker, an associate finance professor at Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management. At the same time, once people have made these anticipatory purchases or start to batten down the hatches, they could bring down the economy with them. If someone decides to put off renovating their kitchen, it means the contractor, the workers, and the store selling the materials miss out on money. "Just the fact that all of this is happening generates a wave of uncertainty," Parker says. "It's a significant drag on the economy, and it's not clear how big, but it certainly is a drag." Anyone who says they know what will happen next is lying. To be sure, there are some areas where sitting on your hands is usually the way to go, such as investing. When the going gets tough in the stock market, one of the worst things people can do is panic and cash out at the bottom. If someone had done that, say, in the wake of Trump's "Liberation Day," they'd probably regret it now. "Markets fluctuate all the time, they will go up and down," says Siavash Radpour, the associate director of the Retirement Equity Lab at The New School's Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis. "Not doing anything is often a good policy for people who don't know what's going on." My colleagues at Business Insider recently did a series of stories attempting to answer whether it's a good time to make big life decisions. They looked at starting a business (the answer was yes), buying a home (if you must, but maybe rent), changing jobs (no), investing in stocks (go for it, within reason), buying a new car (hop to it), and retiring (hold off). The advice in the stories is all helpful and enlightening, but it can also go only so far. Every decision in life involves risks, and the truest answer to "Should I do X, Y, Z?" is, "It depends!" There's no denying we're in a time of heightened uncertainty. Anyone who says they know what will happen next is lying. And it really feels like things could break in any direction. While the safest advice is probably that you should snap up that new car before tariffs push up prices by thousands of dollars, Trump could declare the tariff thing over tomorrow, and all of a sudden you've overpaid for no reason. "The market this year has been driven less by fundamentals and just more by the different news we're getting from week to week on what's going on," Woods says. Maybe you do hold off on buying a house and come to regret it five years from now when prices are even higher. Or, you don't retire, and you miss out on time with your grandkids, or you're so risk-averse about jumping ship from your company that you miss out on your dream job. Those decisions are harder to make now with more factors in play. It's not just whether a recession is coming, but also what the AI revolution means for the structural future of the labor market. The question for retirees isn't just whether they've saved enough; it's also what might happen with public assistance programs they'd long planned around. "There is the risk of what's going to happen to Medicaid, what's going to happen to Social Security," Radpour says. "Health expenses are really scary in retirement." Starting a new business is always risky — statistically speaking, half of new businesses fail in five years. Loans for starting said business are more expensive and harder to come by. While it may be a decent time for a startup, no plan is foolproof. Many people who start a company during downturns and turmoil are doing so because they've lost their job or someone in their household has, not because they're jazzed about the future. "The jump is made for them, in some sense," Baker says. Still, if you see a market opportunity and want to make the jump, the idea that economy could get bad shouldn't preclude taking action. Thinking through all of the ambiguity and confusion isn't fun. Financial risks are always scary, whether big or small. Now it feels like the anxiety is extra heightened, given the context. For many people, it's going to feel like they're damned if they do, damned if they don't.
30 minutes ago
Trump curbs immigration enforcement at farms, meatpacking plants, hotels and restaurants
WASHINGTON -- The Trump administration directed immigration officers to pause arrests at farms, restaurants and hotels, after President Donald Trump expressed alarm about the impact of aggressive enforcement, an official said Saturday. The move follows weeks of increased enforcement since Stephen Miller, White House deputy chief of staff and main architect of Trump's immigration policies, said U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers would target at least 3,000 arrests a day, up from about 650 a day during the first five months of Trump's second term. Tatum King, an official with ICE's Homeland Security Investigations unit, wrote regional leaders on Thursday to halt investigations of the agricultural industry, including meatpackers, restaurants and hotels, according to The New York Times. A U.S. official who was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity confirmed to The Associated Press the contents of the directive. The Homeland Security Department did not dispute it. 'We will follow the President's direction and continue to work to get the worst of the worst criminal illegal aliens off of America's streets,' Tricia McLaughlin, a Homeland Security spokesperson, said when asked to confirm the directive. The shift suggests Trump's promise of mass deportations has limits if it threatens industries that rely on workers in the country illegally. Trump posted on his Truth Social site Thursday that he disapproved of how farmers and hotels were being affected. 'Our great Farmers and people in the Hotel and Leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace,' he wrote. 'In many cases the Criminals allowed into our Country by the VERY Stupid Biden Open Borders Policy are applying for those jobs. This is not good. We must protect our Farmers, but get the CRIMINALS OUT OF THE USA. Changes are coming!' While ICE's presence in Los Angeles has captured public attention and prompted Trump to deploy the California National Guard and Marines, immigration authorities have also been a growing presence at farms and factories across the country. Farm bureaus in California say raids at packinghouses and fields are threatening businesses that supply much of the country's food. Dozens of farmworkers were arrested after uniformed agents fanned out on farms northwest of Los Angeles in Ventura County, which is known for growing strawberries, lemons and avocados. Others are skipping work as fear spreads. ICE made more than 70 arrests Tuesday at a food packaging company in Omaha, Nebraska. The owner of Glenn Valley Foods said the company was enrolled in a voluntary program to verify workers' immigration status and that it was operating at 30% capacity as it scrambled to find replacements. Tom Homan, the White House border czar, has repeatedly said ICE will send officers into communities and workplaces, particularly in 'sanctuary' jurisdictions that limit the agency's access to local jails. Sanctuary cities 'will get exactly what they don't want, more officers in the communities and more officers at the work sites,' Homan said Monday on Fox News Channel. 'We can't arrest them in the jail, we'll arrest them in the community. If we can't arrest them in community, we're going to increase work site enforcement operation. We're going to flood the zone.'
Yahoo
33 minutes ago
- Yahoo
The Latest: Death toll grows as Israel and Iran trade attacks for third day
The death toll is growing as Israel and Iran exchanged missile attacks for a third consecutive day on Sunday, and Israel is warning that worse is to come. Israel targeted Iran's Defense Ministry headquarters in Tehran and sites it alleged were associated with Iran's nuclear program, while Iranian missiles evaded Israeli air defenses and slammed into buildings deep inside Israel. The region braced for a drawn-out conflict after Israel's strikes hit nuclear and military facilities, killing several senior generals and top nuclear scientists. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump also had a warning for Tehran, saying it can expect 'the full strength and might of the U.S. Armed Forces' if it retaliates against the United States. Israel, which views a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat, launched its attacks after weeks of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran over Iran's nuclear program. Iran announced Thursday that it planned to activate a third nuclear enrichment facility shortly after the U.N. nuclear watchdog censured Iran for failing to comply with nonproliferation obligations. ___ Here's the latest: Israeli oil refinery damaged as a result of Iran strike An Israeli oil refinery firm says an Iranian strike over the weekend caused 'localized' damage to its complex in the northern city of Haifa. Bazan Group said in a report to the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange that as a result of the strike, pipelines and transmission lines between facilities were damaged. It said the refinery facilities were functional but that some of the downstream facilities had been shut down. It said no one was wounded. Iran says it doesn't seek weapons but insists on 'nuclear rights' Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has reiterated that Iran has no intention of developing nuclear weapons and is open to an agreement that would ensure that. 'But if the purpose of an agreement is to deprive Iran of its nuclear rights, then naturally, we are not prepared to accept such an agreement,' he said in a meeting with diplomats. Araghchi had planned to attend a sixth round of indirect talks with the U.S. over Iran's disputed nuclear program before they were called off after Israel's surprise bombardment of Iran's military and nuclear sites on Friday. Iran has always said its nuclear program was peaceful, and the U.S. and others have assessed it has not pursued a weapon since 2003. But it has enriched ever larger stockpiles of uranium to near weapons-grade levels in recent years and was believed to have been able to develop multiple weapons within months if it chose to do so. Israel warns Iranians to evacuate weapons factories The Israeli military warned Iranians on Sunday to immediately evacuate 'military weapons production factories,' likely signaling that new strikes are planned. Col. Avichay Adraee, a military spokesperson, posted the warning on the social platform X in Iran's Farsi language. Adraee in the past has signaled other strikes in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon and Yemen amid the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip. His warning came just after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that if the Israeli strikes on Iran stop, then 'our responses will also stop.' Work crews sift through wreckage after Arab Israel city was hit A bulldozer dug through debris Sunday near a home in the Arab Israeli city of Tamra. The home's third floor was pancaked and nearby buildings were also damaged. Four people, including a 13-year-old, were killed in the strike. Wahid Yassin, a neighbor, told Israeli Army Radio the blast was so powerful it nearly ripped off the door of his bomb shelter. When he emerged, he said he saw the neighbors' daughter standing on the roof of her damaged home, shaking. 'Her two sisters and her mother were killed in this incident. And suddenly she's there on the roof, alone, shaking," he said. Israel's airspace stays closed The Israel Airports Authority said Israel's airspace remained closed on Sunday and the country's Ben Gurion International Airport was still closed to landings and takeoffs for the third day. The authority said it was working with Israeli airlines toward returning Israelis stranded abroad to the country. 'All air crews and aircraft are ready for action as soon as this becomes possible, but this may take a long time, depending on the security situation," it said. Israel's land border crossings to Jordan and Egypt remain open. Death toll grows in Israel At least 10 people in Israel were killed in Iranian strikes overnight and into Sunday, according to Israel's Magen David Adom rescue service, bringing the country's total death toll to 13. At least six people, including two children, were killed when a missile hit an apartment building in Bat Yam, near Tel Aviv. Daniel Hadad, a local police commander, said 180 people were wounded and seven are still missing. An Associated Press reporter saw streets lined with damaged and destroyed buildings, bombed out cars and shards of glass. Responders used a drone at points to look for survivors. Some people could be seen leaving the area with suitcases. Four people were killed when a missile struck a building in the northern Israeli town of Tamra, and another 24 were wounded. A strike on the central city of Rehovot wounded 42 people. Explosions in Tehran New explosions echoed across Tehran and were reported elsewhere in the country early Sunday, but there was no update to a death toll put out the day before by Iran's U.N. ambassador, who said 78 people had been killed and more than 320 wounded. Semiofficial Iranian news agencies reported that an Israeli drone strike had caused a 'strong explosion' at an Iranian natural-gas processing plant, in what could be the first Israeli attack on Iran's oil and natural gas industry. Israel's military did not immediately comment. World leaders are issuing urgent calls to deescalate. But Israeli's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel's strikes so far are 'nothing compared to what they will feel under the sway of our forces in the coming days.' Trump warns Tehran not to target U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. had 'nothing to do with the attack on Iran' and warned Tehran against targeting U.S. interests in retaliation. 'If we are attacked in any way, shape or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the U.S. Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before. However, we can easily get a deal done between Iran and Israel, and end this bloody conflict!!!' Trump wrote on Truth Social late Saturday. Nuclear talks called off Planned talks on Iran's nuclear program, which could provide an off-ramp, have been called off. The Arab Gulf country of Oman, which has been mediating indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program, said a sixth round planned for Sunday would not take place. Iran's top diplomat, Abbas Araghchi, said Saturday that the nuclear talks were 'unjustifiable' after Israel's strikes, which he said were the 'result of the direct support by Washington.' The Associated Press
