Prepare for Iran to retaliate
On Thursday, President Trump gave Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the regime he has led for more than 35 years an ultimatum: start negotiating over your nuclear programme, or face the full consequences. He would allow another two weeks, at most, for Tehran to prove its willingness to negotiate sincerely.
The armchair warriors on cable TV news are gloating about how great the operation turned and how resolute Trump proved to be, but none appear particularly interested in the first, second and third order effects of the decision
The two weeks, however, was only two days. Trump's decision to drop 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs on Fordow, Iran's deeply-buried underground uranium enrichment facility, as well as on facilities at Natanz and Isfahan, was the culmination of eight days of deliberations within the Trump administration. It was a long eight days for Trump, no doubt, with Senator Lindsey Graham on one side urging him to take care of Iran's nuclear programme militarily; former Fox News host Tucker Carlson was on the other, counselling the president to stick with his 'America First' principles of non-interventionism.
Ultimately, Trump split the baby – or at least tried to. The way the White House describes it, Trump is taking decisive military action on Iran without getting bogged down in another long, drawn-out, convoluted mess in the Middle East. There will be no regime change as Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants, nor will there be US boots on Iranian soil. Trump shared these details with Fox host Sean Hannity, and added that all of the Iranian nuclear sites targeted were completely destroyed.
But let's face it: America's capabilities were never in dispute. The question wasn't whether the United States could bomb buildings both above and below ground, but whether bombing was the right way to address the Iranian nuclear issue. The armchair warriors on cable TV news are gloating about how great the operation turned and how resolute Trump proved to be, but none appear particularly interested in the first, second and third order effects of the decision. And there are plenty to mention.
The most immediate consequence will be Iranian retaliation. Khamenei has virtually assured that some kind of military retaliation against US bases in the region will occur. There are plenty of those bases around, and Tehran has quite a few options at its disposal. By entering a war Israel started, Trump has now opened up the possibility of US troops having targets on their backs. While the Iranians have used perhaps as many as half of their ballistic missile inventory against Israel over the past eight days, there are still hundreds upon hundreds of them available to sail across the Persian Gulf into an American military installation.
Some pundits will dismiss the Iranians as a fairly weak conventional power – not worthy of our concern. Yet even a weak power has some arrows in its quiver. If one of those quivers kills an American, Trump will feel an even greater amount of pressure to plunge further into the muck.
Zooming out, another potential consequence: will Khamenei react to this US strike by throwing up his hands and begging for forgiveness – or by rebuilding what was destroyed? You won't find many analysts who know Iranian history and how the Islamic Republic operates betting on the former scenario. The only thing more dangerous to Khamenei than US military force is submitting to American demands. Indeed, it's one of the reasons why the Iranians refused to meet the Trump administration's nuclear demands when Washington imposed maximum pressure sanctions on the regime. Doing so would have been viewed as an embarrassment on the international stage – and from the regime's perspective, it would have served as a stepping-stone for America issuing even stronger demands in the future.
In sum, don't expect the Iranians to wave the white flag. Instead, the regime is more likely to use the US strikes as a rationale to boot all international inspectors out of the country, suspend or withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and redouble their efforts to reconstruct the nuclear infrastructure the Americans and Israelis just wiped out.
Those within the regime who were arguing that a nuclear weapon was absolutely essential to keep foreign powers at bay will be further empowered. And the Supreme Leader, who the US intelligence community assessed had yet to give the order to actually build a bomb, will have more reason to change his strategic calculations.
Trump claims he's a master negotiator. On Iran, he claimed diplomacy was his preferred choice and authorised his old pal Steve Witkoff to get a deal done. But in the end, he opted for bombing and tweeting over negotiating.
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The Independent
14 minutes ago
- The Independent
Nations react to US strikes on Iran with many calling for diplomacy
Several close U.S. allies urged a return to the negotiating table in the wake of American strikes on Iran that fueled fears of a wider conflict, while noting the threat posed by Tehran's nuclear program. Some countries and groups in the region, including those that support Iran, condemned the move while also urging de-escalation. U.S. President Donald Trump had said Thursday that he would decide within two weeks whether to get involved in Israel's war with Tehran. In the end, it took just days. Washington hit three Iranian nuclear sites early Sunday. It remained unclear how much damage had been inflicted, and Iran said it reserved the right to 'resist with full force.' Some have questioned whether a weakened Iran would capitulate or remain defiant and begin striking with allies at U.S. targets scattered across the Gulf region. Here is a look at reactions from governments and officials around the world. United Nations U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres said he was 'gravely alarmed' by the use of force by the United States. 'There is a growing risk that this conflict could rapidly get out of control — with catastrophic consequences for civilians, the region, and the world,' he said in a statement on the social media platform X. 'I call on Member States to de-escalate.' 'There is no military solution. The only path forward is diplomacy.' United Kingdom British Prime Minister Keir Starmer called for Iran to return to the negotiating table to diplomatically end the crisis, saying stability was the priority in the volatile region. The U.K., along with the European Union, France and Germany, tried unsuccessfully to broker a diplomatic solution in Geneva last week with Iran. Starmer said Iran's nuclear program posed a grave threat to global security. 'Iran can never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon and the U.S. has taken action to alleviate that threat,' Starmer said. Iraq The Iraqi government condemned the U.S. strikes, saying the military escalation created a grave threat to peace and security in the Middle East. It said it poses serious risks to regional stability and called for diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the crisis. 'The continuation of such attacks risks dangerous escalation with consequences that extend beyond the borders of any single state, threatening the security of the entire region and the world,' government spokesman Bassem al-Awadi said in the statement. Iraq has close relations with both Washington and Tehran, and it has attempted to balance those over the years. The country also has a network of powerful Iranian-backed militias, which so far have not entered the fray. Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia expressed 'deep concern' about the U.S. airstrikes, but stopped short of condemning them. 'The Kingdom underscores the need to exert all possible efforts to exercise restraint, de-escalate tensions, and avoid further escalation,' the Foreign Ministry said in a statement. Saudi Arabia had earlier condemned Israel's strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and military leaders. Qatar Qatar, which is home to the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East, said it 'regrets' escalating tensions in the Israel-Iran war. Its Foreign Ministry in a statement urged all parties to show restraint and 'avoid escalation, which the peoples of the region, burdened by conflicts and their tragic humanitarian repercussions, cannot tolerate.' Qatar has served as a key mediator in the Israel-Hamas war. Oman Oman, which served as mediator in the nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S., condemned the airstrikes, saying they escalated tensions in the region. The U.S. airstrikes threaten 'to expand the scope of the conflict and constitute a serious violation of international law,' a spokesperson for Oman's Foreign Ministry said in a statement. Hamas and the Houthis Both the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Hamas have condemned the U.S. strikes. In a statement on Sunday, the Houthi political bureau called on Muslim nations to join 'the Jihad and resistance option as one front against the Zionist-American arrogance.' Hamas and the Houthis are part of Iran's so-called Axis of Resistance, a collection of pro-Iranian proxies stretching from Yemen to Lebanon that for years gave the Islamic Republic considerable power across the region. Lebanon Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said the U.S. bombing could lead to a regional conflict that no country could bear and called for negotiations. 'Lebanon, its leadership, parties, and people, are aware today, more than ever before, that it has paid a heavy price for the wars that erupted on its land and in the region,' Aoun said in a statement on X. 'It is unwilling to pay more.' Lebanon's new leadership — which came to power after a devastating war between Israel and the Hezbollah militant group — has urged the country to avoid being dragged into more conflict as it tries to rebuild itself and pull itself from a yearslong economic crisis. Hezbollah has not taken military action against Israel in solidarity with its key ally Iran, and has not yet commented on Washington's overnight strikes. China A commentary from China's government-run media asked whether the U.S. is 'repeating its Iraq mistake in Iran.' The online piece by CGTN, the foreign-language arm of the state broadcaster, said the U.S. strikes mark a dangerous turning point. 'History has repeatedly shown that military interventions in the Middle East often produce unintended consequences, including prolonged conflicts and regional destabilization,' it said, citing the American invasion of Iraq in 2003. It said a measured, diplomatic approach offers the best hope for stability in the Middle East. European Union The European Union's top diplomat said Iran must not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon, but she urged those involved in the conflict to show restraint. 'I urge all sides to step back, return to the negotiating table and prevent further escalation,' EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said in a post on social media. Italy Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said Iran's nuclear facilities 'represented a danger for the entire area' but hoped the action could lead to de-escalation in the conflict and negotiations. New Zealand New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters urged 'all parties to return to talks.' He wouldn't tell reporters Sunday whether New Zealand supported Trump's actions, saying they had only just happened. 'Diplomacy will deliver a more enduring resolution than further military action,' he said. Japan Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba told reporters Sunday that it was crucial to calm the situation as soon as possible, adding that the Iranian nuclear weapons development also must be prevented. Ishiba, asked if he supports the U.S. attacks on Iran, declined to comment. Australia Australia, which shuttered its embassy in Tehran and evacuated staff Friday, pushed for a diplomatic end to the conflict. 'We have been clear that Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile program has been a threat to international peace and security,' a government official said in a written statement. 'We note the U.S. President's statement that now is the time for peace.' "We continue to call for de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy.'
Daily Mirror
18 minutes ago
- Daily Mirror
Inside Trump's attack on Iran nuke bases with 'bunker buster' bombs and missiles
The major US operation is said to have targeted Iran's nuclear sites using some of its most powerful weapons, according to Donald Trump - including six 30,000lb bunker-busting bombs The US has said it used six bunker-buster bombs and submarine missiles to "obliterate" Iran's nuclear bases in a move it called a "spectacular military success". President Donald Trump announced on social media that the attack included a strike on the heavily protected Fordow enrichment plant, buried deep under a mountain in the Iranian city of Qom. The other sites blitzed during the early hours of Sunday morning were at Natanz and Isfahan. Taking to Truth Social, Trump confirmed the attack, saying: "We have completed our very successful attack on the three nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. All planes are now outside of Iran air space. A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow. "All planes are safely on their way home. Congratulations to our great American Warriors. There is not another military in the World that could have done this. NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE! Thank you for your attention to this matter," he added. The major US operation is said to have targeted Iran's nuclear sites using some of its most powerful weapons. According to Trump, six 30,000lb bunker-busting bombs - called GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators - were used to hit Iran's most protected facility, the US President told Fox News. The bombs were dropped by six B-2 bombers, which reportedly flew from Missouri and stayed in the air for 37 hours, the New York Times reports. They had to refuel multiple times mid-air so they wouldn't have to land, and were chosen because the Fordow nuclear site, buried 300 feet underground and surrounded by steel, is difficult to destroy. Trump said Israel couldn't hit the site alone, but that the US could - and now has. Each missile, about 20 feet long with a 5,000lb warhead, was designed to pierce deep into the ground before detonating. Iran, however, claimed it knew the attack was coming and had already removed anything of value from Fordow. Still, the US also hit other nuclear sites - Natanz and Isfahan. Thirty Tomahawk missiles were reportedly fired from submarines stationed 400 miles away. These are long-range weapons, launched from sea or land, that can travel over 1,000 miles. The US has a naval base nearby in Bahrain. Natanz is home to Iran's largest uranium enrichment plant, which plays a key role in producing weapons-grade material. One of the B-2s also dropped two bunker busters on the site, the New York Times reported. Isfahan, another key site, is believed to store uranium that's almost weapons-grade. Both facilities had already been targeted in earlier Israeli strikes. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, confirmed that Natanz was badly damaged in the earlier Israeli assault. He said: "The above-ground part of the pilot fuel enrichment plant, where Iran was producing uranium enriched up to 60% U-235, has been destroyed." Uranium-235 is a key material used for both nuclear power and weapons. Iran retaliated with a series of missile and drone strikes in Israel and warned of "everlasting" consequences after the US attack. Foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said the strikes "will have everlasting consequences" and that his country "reserves all options" to retaliate. Keir Starmer meanwhile said Tehran can never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon and responded to the attack, and called Iran's nuclear programme "a grave threat to international security." He said: "Iran can never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon and the US has taken action to alleviate that threat. "The situation in the Middle East remains volatile and stability in the region is a priority. We call on Iran to return to the negotiating table and reach a diplomatic solution to end this crisis."
The Herald Scotland
31 minutes ago
- The Herald Scotland
Iran nuclear sites strikes may raise UK terror risk
The Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran confirmed attacks took place on its Fordo, Isfahan and Natanz sites, but it insisted its nuclear programme will not be stopped. Iran and the UN nuclear watchdog said there are no immediate signs of radioactive contamination at the three locations following the strikes. Speaking to Sky News this morning Mr Reynolds the UK was not involved in the strikes against Iran but was informed in advance by the US. He said "no request was made" was made to the UK by the US for support. READ MORE: He told Sky News: "We were not and have not been involved in these attacks." But asked about the potential risk to the UK, he added: 'This is not hypothetical. There is not a week goes by without some sort of Iranian cyber attack on a key part of UK critical national infrastructure. 'There is Iranian activity on the streets of the UK, which is wholly unacceptable.' He added: 'It's already at a significant level. I think it would be naive to say that that wouldn't potentially increase. 'But again, there's a choice here for Iran: Do they want to continue being an agent of instability in the region and the wider world? Where has that got them? Where has it got the Iranian people? 'There's a better course of action for Iran to take here, and I think they should consider that.' His intervenition comes as politicians reacted to the US strikes. John Swinney has said the UK must push for a diplomatic solution following the US strikes on Iran's nuclear programme. Posting on X, John Swinney said: "The Middle East conflict has reached an alarmingly greater level of danger after the US attacks on Iran. The conflict must be stopped by a diplomatic solution delivered through the international community. And the UK Government must insist on that now." Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said today: "Iran's nuclear programme is a grave threat to international security. "Iran can never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon and the US has taken action to alleviate that threat. "The situation in the Middle East remains volatile and stability in the region is a priority. "We call on Iran to return to the negotiating table and reach a diplomatic solution to end this crisis." Ireland's deputy premier said a dangerous escalation between Iran and Israel is now "more real and more likely than ever before". Simon Harris, who is also the Irish foreign affairs minister, called for a de-escalation and negotiated solution on Iran's nuclear capabilities. He said that staff from the Irish embassy in Tehran left Iran on Friday, and that he was being updated on Irish peacekeepers stationed in Lebanon. "I am closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East following military action by the United States on three nuclear facilities in Iran overnight," Mr Harris said. "The risk of an extremely dangerous spiral of escalation in relation to Iran and Israel is now more real and more likely than ever before. "There is an urgent need for de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy. This has been the focus of my engagement with EU partners and countries in the region since this current crisis began. It will remain Ireland's priority in the hours and days ahead." He added: "Europe, including Ireland, is fully united in the clear view that Iran should not be allowed to possess nuclear weapons. "The way to address this was always through a negotiated solution. Any alternative to that is simply too dangerous for civilians, for the Middle East region and for global security. "The comment from the International Atomic Energy Agency this morning is a stark reminder of these dangers. "While there is no initial reporting of any increase in off-site radiation levels as a result of overnight developments, it is a warning as to how easily that could change should further escalation occur, and the disaster that could pose." Shadow foreign secretary Dame Priti Patel said US air strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities were "absolutely essential". Dame Priti told Sky News's Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips: "America's actions were absolutely essential. "We have got to the stage, as we've seen in the last nine days or so, where Iran coming to the negotiation table simply was not happening in any constructive way. "We had the IAEA report disclosing the extent to which Iran's capabilities on nuclear were just increasing and they went beyond civilian capabilities. "So these strikes were essential, I think the strikes from both Israel and from the United States - it's quite clear that the American military was the only military capable of literally dropping those bombs on Fordo." The Witham MP added: "Iran is a terrorist state. They sponsor proxies. "They harm us, for a start, they harm the UK and our interests, as well as chants of 'death to America' and their objective, which has always been to eliminate the state of Israel, which is simply not acceptable." Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said: "By targeting Iran's nuclear sites, the US has taken decisive action against a regime that fuels global terror and directly threatens the UK. "Iranian operatives have plotted murders and attacks on British soil. "We should stand firmly with the US and Israel." Reform UK leader Nigel Farage backed Donald Trump's decision to strike Iran. He said: 'Reform UK stands behind the military actions of the USA overnight. 'Iran must not be allowed to have nuclear weapons, the future of Israel depends on it.'
