Germany's Ifo institute cuts 2025 economic growth forecast to 0.2%
BERLIN, March 17 (Reuters) - Germany's Ifo institute cut its forecast for economic growth in Europe's largest economy to 0.2% on Monday, citing subdued consumer sentiment and companies' reluctance to invest.
Some improvement is expected next year when growth is forecast to rise by 0.8%, said Ifo.
Get a look at the day ahead in European and global markets with the Morning Bid Europe newsletter. Sign up here.
Ifo had forecast in December that the economy would grow by 0.4% this year if it fails to overcome structural challenges.
Ifo added that there were some forecast risks in light of upcoming economic policy decisions in Germany and the United States.
The latest forecast was completed on Thursday, according to Ifo.
That was the day before German chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz said he had secured the crucial backing for a massive increase in state borrowing, clearing the way for the outgoing parliament to approve the historic deal this week.
"The German economy is stuck. Despite a recovery in purchasing power, consumer sentiment remains subdued and companies are also reluctant to invest," said Timo Wollmershaeuser, head of forecasts at Ifo.
Germany became the only country in the Group of Seven (G7) wealthy nations to post a contraction for two consecutive years last year.
Industry in particular is facing weak demand and increasing international competition, in addition to the considerable risks posed by political uncertainties in the U.S., said Ifo.
The German export industry could be hit especially hard by U.S. tariff increases on European products, added Ifo.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Reuters
4 hours ago
- Reuters
TRADING DAY London calling, stocks crawling higher
ORLANDO, Florida, June 9 (Reuters) - TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist I'm excited to announce that I'm now part of Reuters Open Interest (ROI), an essential new source for data-driven, expert commentary on market and economic trends. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, and you can follow us on LinkedIn and X. Trade tensions, policy uncertainty and shaky economic data continue to cloud the near-term outlook for world growth, but they remain on the back burner for now as investors kick off the week by pushing global stock markets higher. In my column today I look at why the dollar has depreciated significantly this year regardless of how U.S. stocks and bonds have performed. The main reason? Hedging. More on that below, but first, a roundup of the main market moves. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. Today's Key Market Moves London calling, stocks crawling higher It was a fairly quiet start to the week across global markets on Monday, with strong equity gains in Asia followed by a grind higher on Wall Street which lifted the MSCI World index to a fresh record high. The main areas of focus for investors were China's economic 'data dump' for May, then the high-level U.S.-China trade talks in London. The two are connected - the U.S. is a less important market for China than it used to be, underscored in May's trade figures from Beijing and reflected in the lack of concrete progress from the negotiations in London. China's total exports rose 4.8% in May from a year earlier but this masks a huge split between the U.S. and the rest of the world. Exports to the U.S. plunged 34.4% year-on-year in value terms, the sharpest drop since February 2020 just before the pandemic, while exports to the rest of the world rose 11.4%. Monthly data are volatile, of course, and May's figures were also distorted by tariffs. Still, U.S.-bound shipments worth $28.8 billion last month were just 9% of the total $316 billion. Economist Phil Suttle notes that is less than half the average share in the decade leading up to President Donald Trump's first trade war. The London talks are expected to continue on Tuesday. But as was the case following Trump's telephone call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday, there is little indication of a significant breakthrough, far less China bending to U.S. demands. "U.S. Treasury Secretaries who live in unbalanced economies might not want to throw barbs such as the 'most unbalanced in modern history' at China without first looking at some data," Suttle wrote on Monday. "The choice to fight an opponent should be conditioned on a clear-headed view of its strengths and weaknesses. The U.S. has done a marvelous job of (once again) deluding itself on this front," Suttle added. Still, divisions between the two countries and the threat to global supply chains are proving no barrier to rising stock markets. Japan's Nikkei and the MSCI emerging and Asia ex-Japan indexes rose around 1%, Hong Kong-listed tech stocks rose nearly 3%, and Wall Street closed in the green. Meanwhile, the dollar's trend this year of declining despite U.S. stocks and bonds rising was on full display on Monday. Wall Street closed slightly higher and Treasury yields fell as much as 5 basis points at the short end of the curve, yet the dollar slipped. Many analysts say one of the main reasons for this is non-U.S. investor hedging - more on that below. Dollar floored as investors seek that extra hedge All three major U.S. asset classes – stocks, bonds and the currency – have had a turbulent 2025 thus far, but only one has failed to weather the storm: the dollar. Hedging may be a major reason why. Wall Street's three main indices and the ICE BofA U.S. Treasury index are all slightly higher for the year to date, despite the post-'Liberation Day' volatility, while the dollar has steadily ground lower, losing around 10% of its value against a basket of major currencies and breaking long-standing correlations along the way. The dollar was perhaps primed for a fall. It's easy to forget, but only a few months ago the 'U.S. exceptionalism' narrative was alive and well, and the dollar scaling heights rarely seen in the past two decades. But that narrative has evaporated, as U.S. President Donald Trump's controversial economic policies and isolationist posture on the global stage have made investors reconsider their exposure to U.S. assets. But why is the dollar feeling the burn more than stocks or bonds? Non-U.S. investors often protect themselves against sharp currency fluctuations via the forward, futures or options markets. The difference now is that the risk premium being built into U.S. assets is pushing them – especially equity holders – to hedge their dollar exposure more than they have in the past. Foreign investors have long hedged their bond exposure, with dollar hedge ratios traditionally around 70% to 100%, according to Morgan Stanley, as currency moves can easily wipe out modest bond returns. But non-U.S. equity investors have been much more loath to pay for protection, with dollar hedge ratios averaging between 10% and 30%. This is partly because the dollar was traditionally seen as a 'natural' hedge against stock market exposure, as it would typically rise in 'risk off' periods when stocks fell. The dollar would also normally appreciate when the U.S. economy and markets were thriving – the so-called 'Dollar Smile' – giving an additional boost to U.S. equity returns in good times. A good barometer of global 'real money' investors' view on the dollar is how willing foreign pension and insurance funds are to hedge their dollar-denominated assets. Recent data on Danish funds' currency hedging is revealing. Danish funds' U.S. asset hedge ratio surged to around 75% from around 65% between February and April. According to Deutsche Bank analysts, that 10 percentage point rise is the largest two-month increase in over a decade. Anecdotal evidence suggests similar shifts are taking place across Scandinavia, the euro zone and Canada, regions where dollar exposure is also high. The $266 billion Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan reported a $6.9 billion foreign currency gain last year, mainly due to the stronger dollar. Unless the fund has increased its hedging ratio this year, it will be sitting on huge foreign currency losses. "Investors had embraced U.S. exceptionalism and were overweight U.S. assets. But now, investors are increasing their hedging," says Sophia Drossos, economist and strategist at the hedge fund Point72. And there is a lot of dollar exposure to hedge. At the end of March foreign investors held $33 trillion of U.S. securities, with $18.4 trillion in equities and $14.6 trillion in debt instruments. The dollar's malaise has upended its traditional relationships with stocks and bonds. Its generally negative correlation with stocks has reversed, as has the usually positive correlation with bonds. The divergence with Treasuries has gained more attention, with the dollar diving as yields have risen. But as Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos notes, the correlation breakdown with stocks is "very unusual". When Wall Street has fallen this year the dollar has fallen too, but at a much faster pace. And when Wall Street has risen the dollar has also bounced, but only slightly. This has led to the strongest positive correlation between the dollar and S&P 500 in years, though that's a bit deceptive, as the dollar is sharply down on the year while stocks are mildly stronger. Of course, what we could be seeing is simply a rebalancing. Saravelos estimates that global fixed income and equity managers' dollar exposure was at near record-high levels in the run-up to the recent trade war. This was a "cyclical" phenomenon over the last couple of years rather than a deep-rooted structural one based on fundamentals, meaning it could be reversed relatively quickly. But, regardless, the dollar's hedging headwind seems likely to persist. "Given the size of foreign holdings of both stocks and bonds, even a modest uptick in hedge ratios could prove a considerable FX flow," Morgan Stanley's FX strategy team wrote last month. "As long as uncertainty and volatility persist, we think that hedge ratios are likely to rise as investors ride out the storm." What could move markets tomorrow? Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Belfast Telegraph
5 hours ago
- Belfast Telegraph
NI hotels join compensation action against Booking.com's ‘anti-competitive' practices
The action — involving more than 25 European countries and which could cost millions of euros — follows the judgment by the European Court of Justice (ECJ) on September 19 last year, which found that the platform's parity clauses breached EU competition law. However, has previously said it is unaware of any pending legal action and suggested the case appeared to be based on 'incorrect and misleading' information. 'This is a chance for hoteliers to stand up for their rights, recover financial losses, and promote a fairer online marketplace,' said Janice Gault, Chief Executive of the Northern Ireland Hotels Federation (NIHF). 'This legal action is unprecedented, and the Federation is supporting it on behalf of its members to secure full compensation for hotels affected by anti-competitive practices. 'For over 20 years, the platform's parity clauses have posed serious challenges for the local hotel sector, leading to significant financial harm through inflated commission fees. 'This is not only about exposing unfair business conduct but also about seeking meaningful financial redress.' In 2021, unilaterally terminated corresponding compensation negotiations with the German Hotel Association (IHA) and started legal proceedings against several hundred German hotels before the Amsterdam District Court. An interim result of this (pending) process is the ruling of the European Court of Justice from September 19 2024, which confirmed findings of the German Federal Cartel Office that the platform's parity clauses breached EU competition law. This has resulted in claims for damages for hotels throughout Europe, which are now to be asserted with the class action supported by HOTREC, an umbrella group representing hotels, restaurants and cafes in Europe. The federation said that over the past 20 years, these parity clauses placed Northern Ireland hotels at a significant competitive disadvantage and that they suppressed price competition between and other online platforms, leading to inflated commissions paid by hotels. In addition, the clauses restricted hotels from offering better prices or availability on their own websites, limiting direct sales and autonomy. The federation added that use of anti-competitive parity clauses caused 'substantial financial harm to hotel businesses across Northern Ireland'. Under the general principles of European competition law, hotels in Northern Ireland are entitled to claim compensation from for the financial losses suffered. Affected hotels may also be eligible to recover a significant portion of commissions paid to in any period from 2004 to 2024, plus interest. The NIHF said they are actively working with affected hotels, guest accommodation providers and guesthouses across Northern Ireland to guide them through the next steps in joining the collective legal action against The case will be led and handled by a team of competition lawyers, litigators, and competition economists, who have already successfully achieved the ECJ's judgment last September. The legal claim will be brought before the courts in the Netherlands, with hotels having until July 31 to sign up to the damages litigation. The Irish Hotels Federation is one of dozens around Europe involved in the action. In a statement to RTÉ News last week, said it is 'not aware of any European wide legal action being taken by hotels'. It added that: 'The ECJ judgment relates specifically to questions asked by the Amsterdam District Court in relation to litigation between and some German hotels disputing the legality of price parity clauses in Germany between 2006 and 2016 — the court did not conclude that German parity price clauses were anti-competitive or had an effect on competition. The Amsterdam Court will now need to make a decision specifically on German parity clauses only.'
Scottish Sun
7 hours ago
- Scottish Sun
Nottingham Forest ‘write to Uefa over Crystal Palace Europa League decision' as they stand to benefit from Eagles ban
Forest took necessary precautions to avoid a similar fiasco TRICKY TREES Nottingham Forest 'write to Uefa over Crystal Palace Europa League decision' as they stand to benefit from Eagles ban Click to share on X/Twitter (Opens in new window) Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) NOTTINGHAM FOREST have reportedly written to Uefa over concerns about Crystal Palace taking part in the Europa League. Palace's historic FA Cup final win over Manchester City booked their place in Europe for the first time. Sign up for Scottish Sun newsletter Sign up 2 Crystal Palace's European dreams could be ruined over an ownership issue Credit: AFP 2 The Eagles lifted the FA Cup at Wembley to secure a Europa League spot Credit: Getty But complications around John Textor's stake in both Palace and French club Lyon have resulted in the South Londoners' spot being in doubt. Uefa rules on multi-club ownership prevent any two clubs controlled by the same person or group from competing in the same competition. Both Palace and Lyon have qualified for next year's Europa League, but the Ligue 1 side would have precedence as they finished higher in their domestic league. And now The Times state Forest made contact with European football's governing body to highlight the potential breach. Should Palace be kicked out of the Europa League, it is understood Nottingham Forest would be promoted from the Conference League and take the Eagles' Europa League place. Forest themselves made the necessary changes to their ownership structure when it became apparent both they and owner Evangelos Marinakis' other team Olympiacos could both qualify for the Champions League. THIS IS A DEVELOPING STORY.. The Sun is your go to destination for the best football, boxing and MMA news, real-life stories, jaw-dropping pictures and must-see us on Facebook at and follow us from our main Twitter account at @TheSunFootball.
