Ukraine says Russia's financial reserves may dry up in 2026
Russia has spent over half of its National Wealth Fund (NWF) during the three years of its invasion of Ukraine, says Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service.
Source: Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine
Details: If the current restrictions and additional measures imposed by the West are maintained, including increasing control over the circumvention of oil sanctions, the Russian Federation risks losing the last remnants of its national welfare fund as early as 2026.
The report notes that the NWF's liquid assets had reached US$145 billion as of the beginning of July 2022. A year later, in July 2023, this figure had dropped to US$78 billion. On 1 May 2025, the reserves were down to only US$39 billion.
Since the start of the full-scale war, the fund has reduced almost fourfold.
"The average price of Brent oil is projected to be US$64 for a barrel in 2025 and US$60 in 2026. For Russia, whose budget is replenished with oil and gas revenues, such a dynamic creates critical fiscal risks," the report said.
It is also pointed out that state corporation Rosatom's 2025 projects are still 80% underfunded, Russian railways is experiencing a drop in traffic, production in the mining, metallurgical, and construction sectors are falling and Russian corporations are suspending dividend payments in large numbers.
"Despite this, Moscow continues to publicly demonstrate confidence in the stability of the economy. However, state-controlled propaganda that conceals the real extent of the economic downturn does not change the facts: the resource-based model of the Russian economy is losing efficiency," the Foreign Intelligence Service said.
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