Best NBA Finals Game 1 Player Props: Chet Holmgren Poised For Big Night?

Newsweek

2 days ago

Thunder F Chet Holmgren is a tempting option in multiple player prop markets tonight after averaging 18 points and 6 rebounds per game vs. Minnesota in the Western Conference Finals.
Thunder F Chet Holmgren is a tempting option in multiple player prop markets tonight after averaging 18 points and 6 rebounds per game vs. Minnesota in the Western Conference Finals.
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With the NBA Finals getting underway tonight in Oklahoma City (tipoff: 8:30 p.m. ET; TV: ABC), it's time to go on the record with our picks and best bets for Game 1 of Pacers vs. Thunder.
Will stars Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton continue their remarkable playoff runs by once again putting up big numbers?
Or do the role players in this series make for the best NBA Finals Game 1 player prop bets?
Chet Holmgren o16.5 Points (-105 at DraftKings) -- 1 unit
The versatile Thunder big man quietly was as effective in the Western Conference Finals as any player besides SGA.
Holmgren averaged 18 points and 6 rebounds per game vs. the Timberwolves, and he scored 20-plus points while playing 30 minutes or more in three of the last four games of that series. He finished with 22 points in Game 2, 21 in G4 and 22 in G5 (when he easily cashed both props we recommended).
Thanks to the attention that SGA and Jalen Williams command, Holmgren gets great looks in this offense, regardless of the opponent.
In Game 5 vs. the Wolves, for example, Holmgren went 8-for-13 from the floor, with five dunk/layup attempts, four 3-pointers and four mid-range looks. His shot diet was even more favorable in Game 4 vs. Minnesota, with a 9-for-14 night that featured eight layup/dunk attempts and four 3-pointers.
In what appears to be a favorable matchup vs. the Pacers, we expect Holmgren to get plenty more of the best shots in basketball.
Holmgren did not play in either regular-season matchup between these teams this year, but he scored 15 points apiece in two games vs. the Pacers in 2023-24.
While Holmgren is not the 3-point threat or paint presence that Karl-Anthony Towns is, KAT's dominance of the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals (the NYK big man averaged 24.8 points on 50 percent FG shooting and 12.2 boards per game vs. Indiana) still bodes well for Holmgren's prospects as a scorer and rebounder in this series.
One of the biggest questions regarding Holmgren is his usage, as OKC has another quality big in Isaiah Hartenstein.
But Thunder coach Mark Daigneault showed in the WCF that he'll lean on whoever gives his team the best chance to win. Case in point: While Holmgren has averaged at least 28 minutes per game in each of the Thunder's three Western Conference playoff series, Hartenstein played just under 20 minutes per game in the conference final matchup vs. Minnesota.
Against a Pacers team that spreads the floor with shooters at all times, there's a good chance Holmgren will log 30-plus minutes per night. For a player with a realistic chance to consistently score 20 or more in this series -- especially if (when?) these games become track meets -- Holmgren at -105 to go over 16.5 points feels like a slam-dunk.
Holmgren's Points + Rebounds props are another good way to go tonight, including over 26.5 P+R (+102 at FD) and over 27.5 P+R (+124 at FD).
S. Gilgeous-Alexander o41.5 Pts + Assists (+108 at FD) -- 1 unit
Even if you're bullish on SGA to light up a Pacers team that he torched for 33 and 45 points in two regular-season games this year, he's hardly tempting at -110 to go over 33.5 points tonight.
That said, after recording 53 P+A (45 points, 8 assists) in the first OKC-IND meeting of the season on December 26 and 41 (33 points, 8 assists) in the rematch on March 29, I expect the 2025 NBA MVP to have a big Game 1 as both a passer and scorer.
Pacers guard Andrew Nembhard deserves every bit of credit he's gotten for how well he defended Jalen Brunson in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. He limited the Knicks' top scorer to 9 points in 44 partial possessions when guarded by Nembhard in that game, according to NBA.com
But SGA is A) coming off a terrific offensive series vs. a good defensive team in Minnesota and B) he had plenty of regular-season success vs. Nembhard when these teams met earlier this year.
On December 26, in 32.8 partial possessions when guarded by Nembhard, SGA had 16 points and two assists on 7-for-8 FG shooting (2-for-2 3PT).
Nembhard held SGA to 11 points on 4-for-10 FG shooting and 1 assist in 37.2 partial possessions on March 29, but the Thunder scored 51 points as a team in those possesions (an effective clip of 1.37 points per possession).
And we haven't even mentioned Nembhard's physicality, which is a huge reason he's an effective 1-on-1 defender. That could easily get him in foul trouble against one of the most effective players in the league at getting to the free-throw line, though.
The other reason to back SGA tonight -- and throughout this series, assuming his over/under prop lines remain somewhat reasonable -- is how Indiana fared against the last two star guards it faced this postseason.
Style-wise, there's no mistaking Gilgeous-Alexander for either Cleveland's Donovan Mitchell or Brunson. Still, those players' success against Indiana is nevertheless worth noting here.
Mitchell averaged 34.2 points and 3.8 assists per game in five games vs. the Pacers in the Eastern Conference semis (39.75 ppg if we exclude his hobbled 20-minute appearance in Game 4).
Brunson averaged 30.7 points and 5.7 assists per game vs. Indiana this postseason while making more than half of his 20.8 FGA per game in the ECF.
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