3 days ago
Yankees MLB trade deadline primer: 3 early storylines to watch
After finalizing a 2025 roster that no longer included superstar Juan Soto, New York Yankees officials expressed confidence that this year's team was not only deeper and more balanced but also better than the 2024 squad, which made the franchise's first World Series appearance since 2009. At the time, it seemed like empty words. How could a team that lost one of the best players in the sport, an American League MVP finalist, be better? But those officials, so far, look smart.
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The Yankees have the second-best record in the AL (41-25), trailing only the Detroit Tigers, and the best run differential in the majors. Their offense has the highest Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) and the most home runs in the sport. Their main pivot after losing Soto to the New York Mets in free agency, Max Fried, has a 1.84 ERA and is an early contender for the AL Cy Young Award. The Yankees have dropped a few frustrating series, but at this stage, it's hard not to think of them as World Series contenders.
That doesn't mean the Yankees' roster is perfect. They need at least one more bullpen arm and could use upgrades in the infield and starting rotation ahead of the trade deadline on July 31. Trade discussions among most clubs won't truly heat up until after the All-Star break in mid-July.
Here are three storylines to monitor over the next seven weeks:
Before the season began, Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner said dropping below the fourth and highest luxury tax threshold was not a concern to him. But the Yankees were actively trying to trade starter Marcus Stroman to shed as much of his $18.5 million salary as they could. Doing so would have put the team below the $301 million threshold. Perhaps the Yankees could have used Stroman's salary to upgrade the roster elsewhere, but they chose not to add another right-handed hitter despite general manager Brian Cashman telling reporters at the end of spring training he would feel better about the team if he were to get another bat.
Steinbrenner has been adamant that he doesn't believe a payroll over $300 million has any correlation to winning a title. Only three teams since 2009 have ranked in the top three in payroll and won a championship: the 2018 Boston Red Sox, 2020 Los Angeles Dodgers and 2024 Dodgers. According to Cot's Contracts, the Yankees have MLB's third-highest payroll behind the Dodgers and New York Mets.
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'Does having a huge payroll really increase my chances that much of winning the championship?' Steinbrenner said in February. 'I'm not sure there's a strong correlation there. Having said that, we're the New York Yankees, we know what our fans expect. We're always going to be one of the highest in payroll. That's not going to change. And it certainly didn't change this year.'
The Yankees currently have a $308 million payroll, according to Cot's. Every dollar spent over $301 million is taxed at a 110 percent rate. Unless the Yankees are able to shed salary, adding key contributors at the deadline will be costly for Steinbrenner.
To use Steinbrenner's words, though, these are the New York Yankees we're talking about. Steinbrenner won't need to file for bankruptcy if they add to their payroll. This team is very good. Adding one or two key contributors could be the difference between a title and another empty year. He should open the checkbook if Cashman and the front office believe a move will help.
Can DJ LeMahieu keep this up?
LeMahieu had a career-worst year in 2024, posting a 52 wRC+ after starting his season late because of a foot injury. If you're reading this, you had more fWAR than LeMahieu did in 2024. Had the Yankees designated LeMahieu for assignment last season, no one would have questioned the front office.
It's early, but there are positive signs that LeMahieu's start isn't flukey. He has the highest barrel rate and average exit velocity of his career. If he keeps it up, there's no reason to believe he can't be an above-average hitter for the rest of the season.
Injuries are the chief concern at this stage of LeMahieu's career. He hasn't been able to stay healthy, and the Yankees probably should not count on him to remain at this level considering his recent poor track record. But if they believe this is real, it makes the need for another infielder less of a priority. The Yankees could choose to upgrade Oswald Peraza's roster spot, but they would need to acquire someone who could play shortstop because he's the current backup.
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The Yankees' bullpen has not pitched well since May 1. Over that span, their bullpen ERA is the sixth-worst in MLB. Ian Hamilton, Fernando Cruz and Jonathan Loáisiga have underperformed during this stretch and the team has missed Luke Weaver, who was placed on the injured list in early June.
Weaver (hamstring strain) isn't expected back for a few more weeks, so someone in this bullpen needs to rise. So far, no one has. Devin Williams has pitched better than he did at the start of the season, but he still doesn't look as sharp as he did with the Milwaukee Brewers. Mark Leiter Jr. has had a couple of tough outings since the start of May.
Hamilton has a minor-league option remaining, so the Yankees could call up a pitcher from Triple A, like Clayton Beeter, or they could insert JT Brubaker into the bullpen when he completes his rehab assignment in the coming days. But, in all likelihood, the Yankees will look to the trade market to add a reliever. Since 2020, the Yankees have traded for at least one bullpen arm at the deadline. Even in the disastrous 2023 season, the Yankees' lone deadline move was trading for reliever Keynan Middleton.
The Yankees also have to decide if they view adding a starter as a need. In all likelihood, Fried and Carlos Rodón would be their Games 1 and 2 starters in October, but who would be their No. 3? Can they count on Luis Gil to return from a lat injury that has sidelined him all season? Is Clarke Schmidt consistent enough to get the ball? Do they trust Will Warren's upside? These are questions the front office likely will ask over the next seven weeks.
Starting pitching prices at the deadline in the expanded playoff era have been high, but the Yankees should seriously consider adding to their rotation.
(Top photo of Brian Cashman: Brad Penner / Imagn Images)
