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Hans India
01-05-2025
- Business
- Hans India
India's gold demand falls 15% to 118.1 tn in Mar qtr
New Delhi: India's gold demand witnessed a 15 per cent on-year decline to 118.1 tonne in the January-March quarter of this year, even as value grew by 22 per cent to Rs94,030 crore due to surging prices, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Wednesday. According to the WGC forecast, India's gold demand for 2025 is expected to be between 700-800 tonne. Gold prices have risen 25 per cent since the beginning of 2025, approaching the key psychological threshold of Rs1,00,000 per 10 grams, affecting consumer buying patterns. 'The elevated prices have impacted affordability. Yet, the enduring cultural significance of gold, especially ahead of Akshaya Tritiya and the upcoming wedding season, continues to support buying sentiment,' WGC India CEO Sachin Jain said in its quarterly report. According to experts, the gold market is humming with excitement on the auspicious occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, which holds immense cultural significance in India, traditionally marking a surge in gold purchases.
Express Tribune
23-04-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
10m Pakistanis at risk of acute food insecurity: WB
The World Bank cautioned on Wednesday that nearly 10 million Pakistanis could face acute food insecurity during the current fiscal year, with poverty levels expected to rise. The warning came as the bank also revised Pakistan's economic growth forecast downward to 2.7%, citing tight economic policies that are suppressing national output. In its flagship biannual Pakistan Economic Update report, the Washington-based lender noted that the government is likely to miss its annual budget deficit target. Additionally, the country's debt burden is projected to increase both in absolute terms and as a proportion of GDP. "With climatic conditions impacting overall agricultural production of key crops such as rice and maize, nearly 10 million people, mostly in rural areas, are expected to experience high levels of acute food insecurity in FY25", said the World Bank. The report brings back the focus on issues that are not frequently discussed in the official meetings – the food insecurity, poverty, unemployment and decreasing real wages. The report underlined that "key sectors for the pooragriculture, construction, and low-value added servicesexperienced low or negative growth, causing stagnant real wages". Combined with population growth of around 2% this is expected to push approximately 1.9 million more individuals into poverty in this fiscal year. Not only that, the employment-to-population ratio is at 49.7%, which reflects low labour market engagement, particularly among youth and women, said the WB. The report stated that social protection expenditures have not kept pace with inflation, constraining resources available to the poor for food, health, education, and other critical items, with negative implications for human capital and labour productivity. It said that 37% of youth and 62% of women are not in education, employment, or training. "Despite nominal daily wages nearly doubling for low skilled workers, such as masons, painters, plumbers, and unskilled workers, real wages remained stagnant or even slightly decreased," according to the lender. As a result, poverty headcount, even at the official national poverty line, would slightly increase. The World Bank said that while using the national poverty line of Rs3,030 per adult equivalent per month in 2013-14, or Rs8,231 in 2024 prices, the projected poverty headcount rate is 25.4% for this fiscal year. Sluggish economic growth The World Bank said that the economic growth is expected to remain at 2.7% in this fiscal year, which is in line with the forecasts made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). It means the government will miss its 3.6% economic growth target, which Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb had described in the budget as achievable. Pakistan's key challenge is to transform recent gains from stabilisation into economic growth that is sustainable and adequate for poverty reduction," said Najy Benhassine, World Bank Country Director for Pakistan. He emphasised that high-impact reforms to prioritise an efficient and progressive tax system, supporting a market-determined exchange rate, reducing import tariffs to boost exports, improving business environment and streamlining public sector would signal strong reform commitment, build confidence, and attract investment. The World Bank said that the growth was expected to pick up in the next fiscal year to only 3.1% and then to 3.4% in 2027. The three years' growth projections were lower than the government's this fiscal year's annual target of 3.6%. The report stated that inflation was projected to decline to 5% this year, reflecting a subdued demand, lower commodity and energy prices, and a stable exchange rate. For this fiscal year, Pakistan's current account is projected to achieve a surplus of 0.2% of GDP or $800 million, the first annual surplus in 15 years, driven by stronger worker remittances, said the World Bank. This will help offset a widening trade deficit as import growth outpaces export growth. The current account is expected to return into a deficit of 0.5% in the next fiscal year, it added. Missing budget deficit target As against the government's budget target of 5.9% of the GDP, the World Bank said that the deficit is projected to remain at 6.8% of GDP in this fiscal year. It means the government will spend Rs1.1 trillion more than the budget target. The lender said that still the primary budget balance is anticipated to reach a surplus of 1.9% of GDP in FY25, primarily due to SBP profits. It said that gross financing needs will remain elevated throughout the forecast period, reflecting maturing short-term debt, repayments to multilateral and bilateral creditors, and upcoming Eurobond maturities. Public debt, including guaranteed debt, is projected to reach 74.6% of GDP in this fiscal year, up from 72.7% of the last year, said the lender. Way forward The World Bank urged Pakistan to restore the functioning of the interbank foreign exchange market alongside the fully market determined exchange rate. It has also asked for taking further measures with government right-sizing, including eliminating redundant or unproductive positions or agencies and sought review of public sector compensation, including monetisation and simplification of in-kind benefits to reduce costs and enhance transparency. It stressed the need for implementing parametric pension reforms to substantially reduce future liabilities and facilitate transition to a contribution-based system over time. "Pakistan's economy has turned the corner and stabilised. Yet, the economic outlook remains fragile and any implementation delays in structural reforms or shifts in economic stabilisation could dampen the nascent recovery and intensify external pressures," said Anna Twum, lead author of the report. Risks remain high due to elevated debt levels, policy and global trade uncertainties, and exposure to climatic shocks, said Twum. The World Bank has also urged the implementation of the recently revised Agriculture Income Tax and reforms in the property valuation to address systematic current undervaluation. It sought reduction in the number of zero-rated items under the fifth schedule, which means imposing more taxes. The World Bank recommended elimination of preferential treatments under the income tax ordinance, and conduct ex-ante cost assessments for new exemptions, evaluate past exemptions, and institute sunset clauses.
Express Tribune
30-03-2025
- Politics
- Express Tribune
Poverty is imaginatively appraised, yet the poor remain poor
Poverty is a dire condition for any individual, with far-reaching consequences recognised across cultures over centuries. Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) sought refuge from it, warning about its consequences, stating, "Poverty almost leads to disbelief." Ancient philosophers offered varied perspectives: Socrates viewed it as "a state of meanness, viciousness and discontent", while Aristotle described it as "the parent of revolution and crimes". Despite humanity's progress, poverty persists, with over a billion people still living in destitution today. The UN defines poverty as severe deprivation of basic human needs, including food, clean drinking water, sanitation, healthcare, shelter, education and information. Poverty rates are critical indicators of deprivation within an economy and reflect the success or failure of government policies. Powerful interests influence how poverty is expressed, whether it becomes a national priority and which mitigation policies are adopted. Experts, policymakers and political elites indeed categorise, stigmatise and neutralise the poor through analyses that obscure the political nature of social and economic inequality (O'Connor, 2001:12). Moreover, how financial and economic managers present poverty to political decision-makers certainly matters more than the problem itself. Laderchi et al (2003) classify poverty into four key segments: Monetary Poverty – defined by income levels or material consumption. Capability Poverty – when individuals fail to achieve their potential due to a lack of resources or opportunities. Social Exclusion Poverty – when individuals or groups face barriers to entry in society. Participatory Poverty – engaging the poor in understanding poverty and seeking solutions. The monetary poverty approach identifies people's need for basic life necessities. The income-based method measures a person's ability to earn enough to satisfy basic needs. This method is arguably better suited for middle-income countries like Pakistan but is not followed. Instead, Pakistan uses a consumption-based approach, which some consider more appropriate for low-income countries. This method determines minimum welfare levels based on a daily food basket providing 2,350 calories and allowances for essential non-food needs. The debate over which method better represents economic distress remains unresolved, as they appear to be two faces of the same coin – different approaches to measuring the same fundamental problem. Governments have made efforts towards poverty reduction through policy interventions supported by international donors. However, while these efforts have seen some success, they have not significantly impacted all segments of poverty – a persistent challenge. In 2013-14, Pakistan updated its poverty measures from a nutritional inadequacy model to the Cost of Basic Needs (CBN) method. The poverty line was set at Rs3,030/month per adult, classifying 29.5% (55 million people) as poor, an increase from the previous estimate of 9.3% (17 million). This revealed an underestimation of 38 million people. If Pakistan updated its method today, a similar situation would likely arise. Pakistan's latest national poverty line was set at Rs3,757/month (Rs124/day) per adult in 2018-19, placing 21.5% of the population below the poverty line. This figure however, has not been updated in five years. If adjusted for the inflation factor (estimated at 15% pa), the revised poverty line would approach Rs7,562/month in 2023-24. An underestimation of current poverty rates that would also disrupts the outcomes of the Uraan Pakistan Plan 2024-29. The World Bank uses an income-based method, setting the international poverty rate at $2.15/day (Rs596/day) per person. This measures potential consumption rather than actual spending, thus avoiding distortion due to local preferences. Studies suggest income-based measures tend to overstate poverty compared to consumption-based measures: Meyer and Sullivan (2009) showed that consumption measures reveal larger declines in poverty over time compared to income measures – perhaps making it less burdensome for governments to maintain statistically lower poverty rates without necessarily alleviating real suffering. The CBN method uniformly categorises all individuals below the poverty line, without accounting for variations within this group. However, a PIDE study (2021) introduced five distinct bands to capture this variation, and the people fall into these bands: Ultra-Poor 5.5% (50-75% below poverty line), Poor 16% (75-100%), Vulnerable Poor 20% (100-125%), Quasi-Poor 37.2% (125-200%), and Non-Poor 21.4% (above 200%). This revealed an unsettling reality: 78.6% of Pakistan's population fluctuates between ultra-poor and quasi-poor bands – at constant risk of falling into deeper poverty due to adverse circumstances. The remaining 21.4% are non-poor, living on just Rs247/day per adult in 2018/19 prices – a modest elevation above poverty line. How would a poor person prefer to be classified? As consumption-poor at Rs124/day under CBN or as income-poor at Rs596/day under the World Bank's standard? Slesnick (2001) observed that consumption-poor households were less educated, owned fewer assets and spent a larger share of their income on necessities than income-poor individuals. Clearly, most would prefer being classified as income-poor with Rs596/day rather than struggling with Rs124/day under CBN measures. This highlights the fundamental dilemma of poverty: whether to allocate resources for welfare or elsewhere, provided there is money to spare. Unfortunately, technical aspects of poverty measurement and eligibility for assistance rarely surface in national discourse. Researchers and policymakers may debate whether to justify CBN over income based methods or to create a hybrid model. Aprea et al (2023) suggested the prevailing view that income and consumption should be considered jointly in poverty measurement. However, no matter how one defines poverty, people living in poverty remain in poverty. Regardless of definitions or methods used to measure it, those living in poverty remain trapped in it unless fundamental changes occur. While millions remain below the poverty line, the government has alleviated the hardship of 342 legislators by raising their salaries from Rs5,817/day to Rs17,063/day, placing an additional annual burden of Rs4.104 billion on the national exchequer. The proposed increase for 96 senators is being approved, while the cabinet size is already doubled, even more burdensome for the country in its economic quagmire. If lawmakers deserve such relief though they are not impoverished, surely Pakistan's poorest citizens deserve an immediate update in national poverty line and meaningful increase in financial assistance. Or is it too much to ask? The question remains whether the political will exists to address this fundamental inequity.
Express Tribune
14-03-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
Gold skyrockets to Rs314,000/ tola
Listen to article Gold prices in Pakistan soared to a new record high on Friday after surpassing the psychological milestone of $3,000 in international markets. In the local market, the price of gold per tola surged by Rs4,700 in a single day, reaching Rs314,000. According to the All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA), the price of 10-gram gold climbed by Rs4,030, settling at Rs269,204. A day earlier, on Thursday, gold prices had already risen by Rs2,800 per tola. "Gold has officially surpassed the significant milestone of $3,000 per ounce, marking a new all-time high," said Adnan Agar, Director of Interactive Commodities. Gold pierced through the psychological milestone of $3,000 an ounce on Friday for the first time, building on a historic rally as trade tensions and US rate cut bets supercharged its appeal as a safe store of value. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,991.00 an ounce at 1342 GMT after hitting an all-time high of $3,004.86. US gold futures were up 0.4% to $3,002.30. JS Global wrote in a report that gold reached an all-time high on Friday, driven by uncertainty over US tariffs, trade tensions, and growing expectations of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve. "At present, a global trade war is underway, fuelling prices to jump to new highs," said Mohammad Qasim Shikarpuri, President of APGJSA. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the war in Gaza, have not reached any resolution despite significant efforts for a ceasefire. Meanwhile, in the United States, there has been a surge in gold purchases following statements by President Trump indicating that he would focus on gold reserves, he added. This increased demand has driven gold prices to record highs, both internationally and in Pakistan. "Currently, gold is at an all-time peak in both global and domestic markets," he said. "Given the ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, the trend suggests that gold prices may continue to rise." "Looking ahead, the situation does not appear to be improving, and further increases in gold prices seem likely," said the APGJSA president. Gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven investment during times of inflation or economic volatility, has risen over 14% so far this year, driven in part by concerns over the impact of US President Trump's tariffs and the recent selloff in stock markets. The global trade war that has roiled financial markets and raised recession fears is escalating, with Trump on Thursday threatening to slap a 200% tariff on alcohol imports from Europe. "The market remains highly active and volatile, with strong bullish momentum," said Adnan Agar, Director of Gold Commodities Limited. "Given the current trends and global economic conditions, it is expected that gold prices may continue their upward trajectory, potentially reaching around $3,025 to $3,040 per ounce." However, once it touches these levels, some profit-taking is likely to occur, leading to a temporary pullback, he said. This is a natural market response as investors look to capitalise on their gains before the next potential movement in gold prices. "Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, rising trade tariffs, and growing financial market uncertainty, investors are increasingly seeking stability – and they are finding it in gold," said Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus Metals Germany. "For now, strong physical demand and safe-haven buying suggest that gold's upward momentum is not yet exhausted." A combination of strong central bank purchases, sound investment demand, as well as bets on monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve, have also bolstered zero-yield bullion's performance this year. The Fed is widely expected to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday. "Overall, we maintain our $3,300 call for the year," said Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, adding that a close above $3,000 on Friday could signal a continuation of the rally next week. ANZ, in a note, forecasted gold to hit $3,050 in 2025. Meanwhile, silver added 0.2% to $33.87 an ounce, platinum lost 0.7% to $987.30, and palladium gained 0.6% to $963.78. On the other hand, the Pakistani rupee experienced a slight dip against the US dollar, depreciating by 0.06% in the inter-bank market on Friday. By the end of the trading session, the currency stood at 280.21, marking a decline of 16 paisa against the dollar. A day earlier, on Thursday, the rupee had closed at 280.05. Globally, the US dollar remained strong on Friday, while the euro retreated further from its five-month high.
Khaleej Times
19-02-2025
- Business
- Khaleej Times
Dh1 scam: UAE firm's sales 'crash by 90%' after fraudsters use logo to dupe buyers out of up to Dh100,000
A UAE-based company has suffered severe financial setbacks, as well as significant damage to its brand and reputation, after scammers allegedly used its logo and product images to trick customers out of hundreds of thousands of dirhams, according to the firm's CEO. "Ever since the scams started and people were targeted, we noticed a dip in our sales. In the past few months, our orders have crashed by up to 90 per cent. I am considering shutting down operations for a few months to contain the losses," said Shehroze Ramay, CEO of Simply The Great Food. Around eight months ago, Shehroze said they first noticed this scam through social media ads. According to him, scammers copied the brand logo and images of A2 Desi Ghee product and promoted an offer for just Dh1. Sponsored ads were posted on platforms like Facebook, TikTok, and Instagram, along with fake websites that closely resembled Simply The Great Food. The frauds ran paid campaigns, prompting potential victims to fill out a survey and purchase the product for Dh1. Shehroze claimed the company is struggling with cash flow and maintaining customers' trust. "We are a small, home-grown business that depends on daily sales to pay local farmers and workers. It's mentally and emotionally draining to hear so many people telling us about losing their hard-earned money," he added. Victims of the scam Talking about a victim, Shehroze said, "A taxi driver, Mr Majid, contacted me after being scammed. He lost Dh1,200, which he had saved for his upcoming wedding trip to Pakistan." Another victim, who had saved for a deposit on her first property in Dubai, lost Dh100,000 to a scam. She has now filed a police complaint, hoping to recover the money she had set aside for her dream home. Dubai resident Dharmesh Bhardwaj also fell victim to the scam, losing Dh18,000 when he tried to grab an unbelievable offer of Dh1 for a bottle of pure ghee. Meanwhile, Dinesh Kumar, a UAE resident for 16 years, lost Dh5,030. Same scam tactics The stories of these victims mirror one another, with the same scam tactics being used across the board. Dinesh talked us through how he fell for the bogus deal. "I was scrolling through Facebook when I noticed an offer for ghee (clarified butter) from Simply the great food. I clicked the link to place an order, which redirected me to a different platform. I was prompted to participate in a survey and answer a few innocuous questions. In the next step I had to enter my card details. After that, I received an OTP from my bank. However, the transaction didn't go through, and an error message appeared on the website, so I closed it." A few hours later, Dinesh received a message stating that a transaction of Dh14,980 on his card was declined due to credit limit. Shortly after, he received another message indicating that a purchase of Dh5,030 had been made. "There was no OTP request for this transaction, possibly because they had added my card to their Apple Pay earlier that morning. Thankfully, I had set a limit on my card's transaction." Dinesh blocked all his cards and immediately contacted the bank to inform them about the fraud. He requested the bank return the amount, but they denied it. After several emails and visits to the bank, as a gesture of goodwill, the bank agreed to return 25 per cent, which is Dh1,275. However, Binsy and Nageena received no assistance from their bank after losing money. In October 2024, Nageena also attempted to buy the ghee through the Dh1 deal. Around midnight, she received a message stating that a transaction of Dh1,500 was made on her card. "After investigation, the bank claimed it was an authorised payment and couldn't help. But I never added my card to Apple Pay—how could it be authorised?" questioned the 40-year-old long-time UAE resident. Sophisticated financial malware Scammers are increasingly using artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to deploy malware on payment apps like Apple Pay, WhatsApp, and Google Pay. Dubai-based cybersecurity expert Rayad Kamal Ayub, managing director of Rayad Group, explained, "PixPirate, a sophisticated financial malware that heavily utilises anti-research techniques. This malware operates through two malicious apps—downloader and a droppee. Once installed, it can: Manipulate and control other applications Log keystrokes Collect a list of apps installed on the device Instal and remove apps Access contacts, calls, and location Read, edit and delete SMS messages Bypass security measures like Google Play Protect Anti-virtual machine (VM) and anti-debug capabilities "PixPirate monitors victim's activities and steal online banking credentials. It targets accounts with the ability to bypass two-factor authentication, making it a significant threat to mobile security," said Rayad. Alerting consumers Shehroze reported that while UAE authorities successfully took down a few fake websites duplicating his brand, the fraud remains widespread. "Scammers continue to create new websites each time one URL is shut down." Shehroze and his team have been alerting buyers and loyal customers about the fraud. They have joined various social groups to spread the word and prevent others from falling for it. They have also posted warnings on our pages, detailing the methods scammers are using. "Authorities have stated that these scams are common and have targeted big brands like KFC and Al Baik. However, we are not big. I started my business eight years ago, and it has taken me a lot of blood, sweat and tears to build a strong reputation. Unfortunately, this scam has damaged that reputation," he added.
