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Centre eyes quota for women ahead of 2029 elections
The Union government intends to roll out 33% reservation for women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies—to be based on a fresh delimitation exercise—in time for the 2029 general elections, said three people aware of the details on Wednesday. The delimitation exercise is also likely to consider the demand from the southern states to ensure their proportionate representation in Parliament is not reduced, the people added.
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Last week, the Union government said that the long-delayed census will be carried out in two phases before March 1 2027, announcing a crucial exercise that will enumerate caste for the first time since independence and likely become the basis for delimitation .
However, given that the delimitation commission, which decides the new contours of the Lok Sabha and of Lok Sabha constituencies, will be formed after that, and will then have to work out the details, it was always assumed —especially before the surprise announcement of the much-delayed census—that the expansion of the Lok Sabha and the reservation of 33% of the seats for women would happen only in time for the 2034 national elections.
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The 2029 timeline is an aggressive one, and this is the first time it is being mentioned.
Government officials are banking on digitisation to speed up the process of releasing the population numbers in time for the delimitation process which itself typically takes between two to three years to finalise, given the widespread consultation process.
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To be sure, the bigger challenge for the delimitation commission will be to address the concerns of the southern states which have demanded that population not be the sole criteria for deciding representation because that would effectively be punishing them for getting their population under control, the key national imperative in the 1970s and 1980s.
The Women's reservation bill or the Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam, 2023 that was passed in Parliament in September 2023, stipulates setting aside one third or 33% of the total seats in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies for women. A provision in the Constitution (128th Amendment) Bill also states that political reservation for women can come into effect only after the delimitation exercise is carried out.
The delimitation process is frozen until after the first census conducted after the year 2026.
'We intend to roll out women's reservation by 2029. The process of conducting the census will begin soon and we are confident that it will be completed in three years. That will then be followed with a fresh delimitation process...,' said one of the three people cited in the first instance, a senior government functionary who spoke on condition of anonymity.
His reference is likely to the publication of census data because the entire field exercise including information collection, house-listing and population enumeration will be completed by March 1, 2027.
To a question on whether the government will accept the demand of the southern states to increase their Lok Sabha seats, the functionary said, the government has already assured the states that their concerns will be addressed.
In February, while speaking at a party event in Coimbatore, union home minister Amit Shah said the southern states would not lose a single seat to delimitation.
In a 2019 analysis first published in Hindustan Times Carnegie Endowment's scholars Milan Vaishnaw and Jamie Hinton wrote that extrapolated for 2026's estimated population, the Lok Sabha would have to become a 848-member House, with Uttar Pradesh alone accounting for 143 (up from the current 80), and Bihar 79 (up from 40). In contrast, Tamil Nadu would see its numbers increase from 39 to 49, and Kerala would see its numbers stay at 20, lowering their proportionate representation in the Lok Sabha.
Several opposition parties such as the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the Congress have pointed out that should the delimitation exercise be based solely on population, it will reduce the representation of southern states in Parliament.
Following the government's announcement of the Census, Tamil Nadu chief minister, MK Stalin, in a post on X, said, 'The Indian Constitution mandates that delimitation must follow the first census after 2026. The BJP has now delayed the census to 2027, making their plan clear to reduce Tamil Nadu's parliamentary representation. I had warned about this. It is now unfolding… We need clear answers from the Union government.'
He also demanded that the 1971 census-based delimitation framework should be in place for another 30 years beyond 2026.
'Census data will pave the way for beginning the process of delimitation. A delimitation commission will be set up by Parliament, which will then draw up the formula for carving out the new constituencies and based on discussions with stakeholders,' said a second functionary, also speaking on condition of anonymity.
