26-05-2025
Op Sindoor setting the tone for Bihar polls—yet enemies & frenemies have Nitish Kumar on edge
A couple of months earlier, as the BJP was organising Tiranga Yatras ahead of the 70th Independence Day, Kumar had taken a dig at it. Those who 'never recognised the tricolour as national flag', he said , were taking out Tiranga Yatras.
'The entire nation stands with you [Narendra Modi] as you are the Prime Minister, but what about those BJP leaders who have repeatedly used the strike to play politics?' Kumar said .
In October 2016, addressing the national council of the Janata Dal (United), Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar slammed the Bharatiya Janata Party for 'politicising' the surgical strike.
Much water has flowed under the Gandhi Setu since then. As the BJP took out Tiranga Yatras across Bihar for 10 days to celebrate Operation Sindoor's success, Kumar watched them silently—and warily, perhaps. The operation has brought springs to BJP leaders' feet. The 2024 Lok Sabha poll blow is a thing of the past. PM Modi has started taking his own name again—Modi's cool mind and the hot sindoor in his veins, Modi's chest, et al.
It was in his first public rally after the Pahalgam terror attack in Bihar's Madhubani, when PM Modi had vowed to punish the perpetrators 'beyond their imagination'. The vow fulfilled, he will be back in Bihar on 29 and 30 May. The BJP's preparations for Modi's roadshow in Patna are in full swing. People standing on both sides of the road would be showering flower petals on him. That's how a victor is welcomed.
'Caste, the main determinant'
How will Operation Sindoor impact the Bihar elections? Let's first look at where the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) stood before the strikes on Pakistan's terror infrastructure and military installations. DesignBoxed, a political digital campaign management company, conducted a survey in Bihar last month. I got access to its report, which has great news for the NDA:
Almost 60 per cent of the respondents were either very or somewhat satisfied with Kumar's performance as chief minister .
Over 60 per cent said that Kumar is fit to serve as chief minister for the next five years.
Over 50 per cent said the NDA is expected to win the next election.
The NDA was the voting choice for 68.72 per cent of the extremely backward classes (EBCs) , who constitute 36 per cent of the total population . It was the voting choice for 39.63 per cent of the other backward classes (OBCs) , who constitute 27 per cent of the total population.
INDIA bloc was the voting choice for 17.74 per cent of the EBCs and 44.14 per cent of the OBCs.
Among the Scheduled Castes (SCs), who constitute 19.6 per cent of Bihar's population, the NDA was the voting choice for 48.23 per cent respondents , and INDIA , for 28.11 per cent.
Over
56 per cent Muslims opted for
the
INDIA bloc
,
and 28.47
,
for the NDA.
Overall, the DesignBoxed survey indicated a clear edge for the NDA. Mind you, it was conducted before Operation Sindoor.
Nitish Kumar's principal challenger, Tejashwi Yadav, also has some positive takeaways from the survey. If elections were to be held tomorrow, 46.7 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the NDA, against 35.6 per cent who favour the INDIA bloc, with 13.8 per cent 'undecided'. If Tejashwi were to swing the 'undecided', the game would be on.
For 43.8 per cent respondents, unemployment and migration are the most important issues in the upcoming elections—Tejashwi's key plank in 2020. What would make him even happier is the survey finding that 63.76 per cent people want the current government to be replaced. This sounds incongruous, as a majority of respondents were satisfied with Kumar's performance. Those involved in the DesignBoxed survey, however, claim that it's no surprise. One of them told me: 'You come across many respondents who are ok with Nitish Kumar but still want his government changed. It's vice versa, too. It's a lot to do with people's castes becoming the main determinant.'
Kumar has been the chief minister since 2005, except for a short interlude of nine months in 2014-15. The yearning for change is understandable. How much of it can Tejashwi exploit? Can he beat the caste arithmetic that seems to be in the NDA's favour today? We will find out in November.
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The Paswan blow
Union home minister and the BJP's chief strategist Amit Shah once told journalists: 'People in Bihar are so political. They sit at tea stalls and read the entire newspaper—from the first to the last page.' Five months is obviously a long time for such political people to change their mind.
But it's not just Tejashwi that CM Kumar would be worried about. The BJP says that the next election will be fought under his leadership, but it's evasive on the question of Kumar becoming the CM again if the NDA wins.
Kumar wouldn't forget the big celebrations at the BJP headquarters in New Delhi after the 2020 poll results. The NDA had barely managed to cross the majority mark, securing 125 seats in the 243-member Assembly. The reason BJP leaders were so rapturous that day was the fact that the JD(U)'s tally was down to 43, against the BJP's 74. The BJP was the big brother in the alliance, finally.
Chirag Paswan of the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), self-proclaimed 'Modi's Hanuman', had fielded candidates in all the seats that the JD(U) contested. Chirag's LJP won just one seat but damaged the JD(U) on 40 seats.
Nitish Kumar was furious, but the BJP was rapturous.
What if the 2020 results are repeated in 2025? The BJP had contested 110 seats and the JD(U) contested 115, as alliance partners in the 2020 elections. Given the JD(U)'s strike rate last time, there is no way that the BJP would partake with as many seats this time. The lesser the number of seats the JD(U) contests, the slimmer the chances of Kumar becoming chief minister again. And if he manages to wangle it one more time, he may very well have to give a post-dated resignation letter to the BJP.
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The third alternative
I asked the president of a party, a BJP ally in Bihar, whether the NDA would give Kumar another term. 'That's the elephant in the room nobody is addressing,' he responded with a cryptic smile.
Now that Paswan is back in the NDA, should Kumar feel safer? One never knows. Poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor can potentially do to Kumar in 2025 what Paswan did in 2020.
Going by the DesignBoxed survey, PK's Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) would be a non-starter. Only 2.7 per cent respondents chose him as the 'preferred candidate' for chief minister. About 34 per cent respondents called PK's party a vote katua (vote cutter), while 27.4 per cent found it a 'serious contender'.
I don't agree with the survey findings about the JSP. First, I saw that people were quite curious about PK when I went to Khagaria to interview him last year. It's possible that this doesn't translate into votes, but who knows? Second, PK wasn't a celebrated poll strategist for nothing. He wouldn't be wasting so much time, energy, and money in his political venture if his own surveys showed such dismal prospects.
That's beside the point. As it is, PK is projecting himself as a third alternative in Bihar politics. For someone who aspires to become the alternative face in Bihar politics, downing Kumar should be a priority.
On the face of it, PK's party should be eating into anti-incumbency votes and hurting Tejashwi's prospects too. However, PK's politics today is what used to be Kumar's in the 2005 and 2010 elections—aspirational, development-centric. Kumar lost his mojo after that. Tejashwi wants to fill that vacant slot, but he carries over huge baggage from his father. PK is, therefore, better suited to claim the Vikas Purush's slot—if Biharis don't vote along caste lines, which, many would say, is wishful thinking.
Ahead of the Lok Sabha elections in 2015, a BJP general secretary had come across me in the Central Hall of Parliament. 'We are sweeping,' he said. Really!
'Are you saying that you are beating Lalu-Nitish combine? Why would the OBCs and the EBCs abandon them and come to you?' I said. The BJP leader asked me when was the last time I had visited Bihar. 'About a year ago,' I said.
He then turned to those sitting around us. 'Yeh dekhiye! Inhe pataa hi nahin hai ki Bihar kitna badal gayaa hai? Wahan log vikas aur double-engine ki baat karte hain aur yeh DK Ji caste mein hi phanse hue hain (Look at him. He doesn't know how Bihar has changed. People there are talking only about development and double-engine government. And here DK is stuck with caste).'
Even my media friends sitting there looked at me in complete disapproval. I found it better to leave the subject there. The rest is history. So if PK is confident that the Biharis will vote for development and their children's future, not for caste or religion, we can only hope against hope that he is proved right.
Be that as it may, downing Kumar is certainly in PK's interest. For the BJP, 2025 offers a great opportunity to finally fulfil its long-cherished dream of having its own chief minister in Bihar. It would only be grateful if PK could repeat what Chirag did in 2020—causing just enough damage to the JD(U) but not to the extent that the NDA falls short of the majority mark. For all we know, the ex-poll strategist must be hoping to emerge as the kingmaker at least.
To cut the long story short, Nitish Kumar going down in this election suits everyone—from Modi-Shah and JP Nadda to Tejashwi, Chirag, PK, and you name it. As things stand, the Bihar CM must be confused about his political enemies and frenemies.
DK Singh is Political Editor at ThePrint. He tweets @dksingh73. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prasanna Bachchhav)
