3 days ago
Padres Reportedly Targeting Red Sox $3.75 Million All-Star, But Should Boston Make Trade?
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
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Left fielders for the San Diego Padres, as of Monday, were collectively batting .191, the lowest average of any left-field corps in baseball. Their OPS of .532 is also worse than every team's, with one exception: the 22-38 Pittsburgh Pirates, whose left fielders have an abysmal .486 OPS.
But the Padres are not 16 games under .500 like Pittsburgh. They're nine games over, at 33-24, in a neck-and-neck battle for the National League West just two games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers.
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 28: President of Baseball Operations and General Manager A.J. Preller of the San Diego Padres speaks to media prior to an Opening Day game against the San Francisco Giants at...
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 28: President of Baseball Operations and General Manager A.J. Preller of the San Diego Padres speaks to media prior to an Opening Day game against the San Francisco Giants at PETCO Park on March 28, 2024 in San Diego, California. MoreClearly, if it wants to stay in the NL West race, San Diego's need to fix the left field problem is urgent. According to a report Monday by Dennis Lin of The Athletic, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has an idea for how to get it done: Trade for Jarren Duran, the speedy left fielder for the faltering Boston Red Sox.
With a sprint speed of 29.1 feet per second, as measured by Statcast, Duran is tied for the 12th-fastest time in MLB. But the difference between his time and baseball's best is not large.
Bobby Witt Jr. of the Kansas City Royals is MLB's speediest runner at 30.4 feet per second, per Statcast, just 1.3 feet faster than Duran.
The Red Sox outfielder put together a career season last year, not only earning an All-Star selection but going on to win the game's MVP award. He led the AL in both doubles (48) and triples (14) while belting 21 home runs and stealing 34 bases.
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Duran's total Wins Above Replacement number, per Fangraphs, was 6.7, good enough for seventh in baseball.
So why would the Red Sox part with Duran? Even in a season that sees them playing well below their expectations, at 29-32, 8 1/2 games behind the New York Yankees in the American League East and 3 1/2 out off a playoff spot?
Setting aside the reality that dealing Duran would open the left field spot for baseball's No. 1 overall prospect Roman Anthony, Duran's current career trajectory should nonetheless make a trade possible, if not likely.
The fact is, while Duran is putting together a respectable season, he has declined sharply from his 2024 production. He still leads the league in triples (6) but given the same number of plate appearances as last season (735) his 13 doubles put him on pace for 34, 14 fewer than last year.
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His OPS is down to .718 from .834, and his four home runs put him on pace for just 10 — less than half of his total from 2024.
Duran debuted in 2021 at age 24, and struggled badly until 2023 — and that year his season was cut short by an injury to a tendon in his toe that required surgery.
All that adds up to the fact that Duran is now 28 years old, which raises the serious possibility he many never rebound to the All-Star level of performance he displayed last season.
Will the Red Sox deal Duran? The Athletic writer believes they are open to the possibility.
"Without being too specific, I think (the Red Sox) are willing to legitimately listen this summer to trade offers for him," Lin said in a Monday radio interview. "And they do still want to compete so it's going to have to be a really good return."
The Red Sox would probably want a first baseman out of the deal. Though he is currently injured, DH and reserve outfielder Gavin Sheets has played 97 MLB games there, including nine this year.
Boston would almost certainly demand a prospect haul to go along with Sheets. With a constant need for big-league ready pitching, the Red Sox could demand 24-year-old right-handed fireballer Francis Pena, San Diego's No. 18 prospect who has struck out 22 in 20 1/3 innings for the Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas.
If they would take a prospect who has a few years before he can be promoted to the Boston roster, the Red Sox could press Preller to part with the aptly-named Boston Bateman — an intimidating, 6-foot-8, 240-pound lefty currently holding opponents to a .233 batting average while fanning 39 in 35 1/3 innings for the Single-A Lake Elsinore Storm.
Bateman, the Padres' No. 5 prospect, is only 19 years old. He has plenty of development remaining if he is going to reach the major league level.
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