Latest news with #AIndex
Fibre2Fashion
05-06-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
ICAC holds world cotton production at 26 MT, consumption at 25.7 MT
The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has projected that world cotton production and consumption will remain steady in 2025–26, according to its July 2025 report. Global cotton production and consumption are forecast to reach approximately 26 million tonnes (MT) and 25.7 million tonnes, respectively, while cotton trade is expected to rebound to 9.7 million tonnes. In 2024–25, global production and consumption stood at 25.687 million tonnes and 25.526 million tonnes, respectively. ICAC projects steady global cotton production and consumption in 2025â€'26 at around 26 million tonnes and 25.7 million tonnes, respectively. Trade is expected to rebound to 9.65 million tonnes. Production gains in Brazil, US and West Africa may be offset by a decline in China. Consumption faces pressure from tariffs and competition. The A Index price forecast ranges between 56â€'95 cents per pound. Regionally, the ICAC has revised production estimates upward for Brazil, the US, and West Africa. However, these gains are likely to be offset by a slight decline in China's output in 2025–26. Following record yields of 2,257 kg/ha—the highest ever recorded—the ICAC projects that China will produce around 6.3 million tonnes, slightly less than the current season but still the highest globally. World cotton consumption is expected to remain under pressure due to anticipated tariff hikes, regulatory challenges, and competition from other fibres. Global cotton trade is projected to rise by 2 per cent to 9.65 million tonnes, driven by increased stock levels from the current season and projected mill demand. However, trade agreements and tariffs could influence next season's trade outlook. Regarding prices, the ICAC stated that the average A Index for the 2024–25 season is forecast at 81 cents per pound. For 2025–26, the preliminary forecast—based on current supply and demand estimates—ranges from 56 to 95 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 73 cents. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)
Fibre2Fashion
14-05-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Global cotton prices remain stable amid currency movements: Cotton Inc
Global cotton benchmarks remained largely stable over the past month, with limited price fluctuations across key markets, as per Cotton Incorporated. The nearby July NY/ICE futures contract traded between 65 and 70 cents per lb, while the December contract ranged between 67 and 71 cents per lb. The A Index held firm between 77 and 81 cents per lb. Global cotton prices remained largely stable over the past month. NY/ICE July futures traded between 65â€'70 cents per lb, while the December contract stayed within 67â€'71 cents. The A Index held between 77â€'81 cents per lb. China's CC Index stayed near 89 cents per lb amid RMB appreciation. Indian spot prices rose slightly to 82 cents per lb, while Pakistani prices remained steady at 72 cents per lb. China's CC Index (3128B) remained steady near 89 cents per lb, with domestic prices close to 14,200 RMB per ton as the RMB appreciated from 7.34 to 7.24 RMB per USD, Cotton Incorporated said in its Monthly Economic Letter - Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook - May 2025. Indian spot prices (Shankar-6) showed a slight upward trend, rising from just below 80 to 82 cents per lb. In local terms, prices increased from ₹53,900 to 54,600 per candy, with the INR stable around 85 per USD. Pakistani spot prices hovered near 72 cents per lb, holding steady at around 16,700 PKR per maund as the PKR traded consistently at 280 per USD. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KD)
Yahoo
17-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Monthly Cotton Economic Newsletter: April 2025
Cotton benchmarks were either flat or slightly lower over the past month. Prices for NY/ICE futures moved lower following tariff-related announcements made April 2. However, the decreases only dropped prices to levels around those reached in early March (when China announced additional duties on U.S. cotton). Old crop contracts (May and July) dipped as low as 63-64 cents/lb, roughly matching their early March lows, before recovering to 66-67 cents/lb. New crop (December) prices fell as low as 66 cents/lb, which is about 1 cent lower than in early March, before recovering to 69 cents/lb. The A Index is nearly unchanged relative to one month ago, holding around 78 cents/lb. Nonetheless, there was movement over the past several weeks, with the A Index trading between 75-80 cents/lb. The Chinese Cotton Index (CC Index 3128B) decreased from 93 to 89 cents/lb. In domestic terms, prices decreased from 14,900 to 14,500 RMB/ton. The RMB eased slightly, from 7.26 to 7.35 RMB/USD. Indian spot prices (Shankar-6 quality) traded between 77 and 81 cents/lb or between 53,000 and 54,000 INR/candy. The INR was stable near 86 INR/USD over the past month. Pakistani spot prices shifted slightly lower from 75 to 73 cents/lb. In domestic terms, values fell from 17,300 to 16,800 PKR/maund. The PKR consistently traded around 280 PKR/USD. The latest USDA report featured limited changes to most forecasts. The world production forecast was lowered -69,000 bales to 120.9 million and the world mill-use forecast was lowered -520,000 bales to 116 million. Historical revisions were also minor, with a net effect on 2024/25 beginning stocks of only a +25,000 bales (to 73.7 million). The combined result for 2024/25 ending stocks was a +526,000 bale addition (to 78.9 million). More from Sourcing Journal Leading Cotton Expert Weighs In on Tariff Effect How Brands Can Bridge Consumers' Sustainability Knowledge and Behavior Gaps These New Technologies are Elevating Consumers' Favorite Fiber At the country level, the largest changes to production estimates were for Argentina (-175,000 bales to 1.5 million) and China (+250,000 bales to 32 million). For mill use, the largest changes were for China (-500,000 bales to 37 million), Indonesia (-100,000 bales to 1.9 million), and Turkey (+100,000 bales to 7.1 million). The global trade forecast was lowered -325,000 bales to 42.4 million. For imports, the largest changes were for China (-300,000 bales to 6.5 million), Indonesia (-100,000 bales to 1.9 million), and Turkey (+100,0000 bales to 4.3 million). For exports, the largest changes were for Australia (-100,000 bales to 5.3 million), Brazil (-100,000 bales to 12.9 million), the U.S. (-100,000 bales to 10.9 million), and Turkey (+200,000 bales to 1.2 million). Recent announcements about changes to U.S. trade policy were followed by significant volatility in a wide range of financial markets. The latest round of announcements began on April 2. On April 2, the administration introduced two sets of increases in tariffs. The first lifted existing rates by a baseline addition of 10 percentage points. This set of increases spanned nearly all trading partners, with the only explicit exception being for goods covered by the USMCA (U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement). This round of revised baseline tariff increases went into effect April 5. The second set of tariff increases went into effect April 9. These have been described as the 'reciprocal' tariffs. However, the formula used to derive these rates is based on trade imbalance rather than the rates charged by partner countries. For partner countries where the U.S. has a trade deficit, the formula used to derive the 'reciprocal' rate is the trade deficit with a given partner divided by the total value of U.S. imports from that partner, which is then divided by two as a 'discount.' The list of locations subjected to 'reciprocal' increases and the level of rate increases can be found here. Where applicable, these 'reciprocal' rates replaced the (10-point) April 5 baseline increases (i.e., were not added to them). On April 9, the same day that implementation began for the 'reciprocal' tariffs, those same 'reciprocal' rates were lowered back to the 10-point baseline increase for most trade partners for an expected 90 days. A notable exception was for China. For China, the U.S. issued further increases on both April 8 and April 9, which brought duty rates on Chinese goods 125 percentage points higher in April alone. This is on top of two China-specific 10-point increases in February and March. To justify the significantly greater rate increases for Chinese goods, U.S. officials indicated they were in response to retaliatory increases on U.S. goods sent to China. On March 4, China released a list of U.S. products that would face 15-point tariff increases that included U.S. cotton. More recently, China responded to U.S. announcements made in April and raised tariffs on imports from the U.S. to a total of as much as 125 points so far this year. Despite the rapid pace of change, the NY/ICE cotton market was somewhat stable, remaining generally within the recent trading range. Prices for both old crop (May and July) and new crop (December) contracts dipped after the April 2 announcement, but they only fell to levels around those reached in early March (when China announced a 15 percent retaliatory tariff on U.S. cotton). Losses in other financial markets have been comparatively larger (for example, the S&P 500 was down more 10 percent between April 1 and April 8). A potential reason that the decreases in cotton prices have not been deeper is that traders may have been expecting another round in the U.S.- China trade dispute. China accumulated reserves last crop year, and there has been a sharp decline in the amount of U.S. cotton contracted for export to China this crop year (in weekly USDA export sales data, commitment to China has consistently been down around 80 percent year-over-year in 2024/25). The lower level of business between the U.S. and China leaves less room for a cascade of cancelations that could put additional weight on prices. A factor that may have the potential to pull prices lower is the threat of a global recession. The rapid pace of change, and the demonstrated possibility for policy reversal, have likely given way to considerable uncertainty that may be an obstacle for purchases and investment decisions. Jon Devine, senior economist at Cotton Incorporated, keeps key stakeholders in the textile and investment communities informed via timely market analyses of commodity economics and factors influencing their stability. He generates industry analyses of the various links on the cotton supply chain, contributing to the division's examinations and reports on consumer and retail trends relevant to cotton textile and apparel sectors. For more economic information about the cotton market, visit Cotton Incorporated's Lifestyle Monitor. Sign in to access your portfolio
