Latest news with #AMRO
Business Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
Amro cuts Hong Kong's 2025 growth outlook on trade uncertainty
[HONG KONG] Hong Kong's growth outlook was cut by a regional organisation, which urged the city to diversify its economy and trading partners to counter growing protectionism. The Asian financial hub is set to expand by 1.9 per cent in 2025 from the prior year, according to the Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (Amro), a step down from the group's 2.4 per cent forecast just last month. While first-quarter activity proved better than expected, it was largely driven by a frontloading of exports – as companies tried to beat a 90-day tariff pause window – and a boost in tourism. The trade picture is growing uncertain for the rest of the year, though, AMRO analysts said. They also encouraged the city to seek deeper partnerships and trade with other nations to offset US protectionism against China, while also saying deeper integration with China was important. 'It is crucial for Hong Kong to further calibrate its macroeconomic policy stance, bolster growth, secure new growth drivers, and tackle structural challenges,' while remaining a financial centre, economists wrote in a press release on Monday (Jun 2). BLOOMBERG
Business Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
Hong Kong's 2025 growth outlook cut by Amro on trade uncertainty
[HONG KONG] Hong Kong's growth outlook was cut by a regional organisation, which urged the city to diversify its economy and trading partners to counter growing protectionism. The Asian financial hub is set to expand by 1.9 per cent in 2025 from the prior year, according to the Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (Amro), a step down from the group's 2.4 per cent forecast just last month. While first-quarter activity proved better than expected, it was largely driven by a frontloading of exports – as companies tried to beat a 90-day tariff pause window – and a boost in tourism. The trade picture is growing uncertain for the rest of the year, though, AMRO analysts said. They also encouraged the city to seek deeper partnerships and trade with other nations to offset US protectionism against China, while also saying deeper integration with China was important. 'It is crucial for Hong Kong to further calibrate its macroeconomic policy stance, bolster growth, secure new growth drivers, and tackle structural challenges,' while remaining a financial centre, economists wrote in a press release on Monday (Jun 2). BLOOMBERG
Bloomberg
3 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Hong Kong's 2025 Growth Outlook Cut by AMRO on Trade Uncertainty
Hong Kong's growth outlook was cut by a regional organization, which urged the city to diversify its economy and trading partners to counter growing protectionism. The Asian financial hub is set to expand 1.9% in 2025 from the prior year, according to the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), a step down from the group's 2.4% forecast just last month.
Fibre2Fashion
10-05-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
US tariffs hit Cambodia's growth outlook; AMRO calls for reforms
Cambodia's economic growth is set to slow to 4.9 per cent in 2025, down from 6.0 per cent in 2024, as sharp US tariffs weigh on the country's key garment exports, according to the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO). Growth is forecast to ease further to 4.7 per cent in 2026. The AMRO mission, led by principal economist Dr Jinho Choi, with policy discussions involving AMRO director Kouqing Li and chief economist Hoe Ee Khor, assessed Cambodia's macroeconomic outlook, vulnerabilities, and policy recommendations, AMRO said in a release. 'Due to the sharp rise in tariffs on its goods export to the US, Cambodia's economic growth is expected to decelerate to 4.9 per cent in 2025 and 4.7 per cent in 2026. However, the economy is resilient and the government should take targeted measures to support the economy, especially the affected sectors,' said Dr Choi. Inflation in 2024 was highly volatile. Although the consumer price index averaged just 0.8 per cent in 2024, inflation spiked in early 2025 and is forecast at 2.7 per cent for the year before moderating to 2.2 per cent in 2026, returning to pre-pandemic levels. The current account surplus narrowed to 0.5 per cent of GDP in 2024, shifting into a deficit of 3.6 per cent in 2025, widening further to 5.5 per cent in 2026. Foreign direct investment inflows are projected to decline in 2025 amid investor caution before recovering in 2026. AMRO highlighted that as a small, open economy; Cambodia remains highly vulnerable to external shocks, compounded by domestic financial sector vulnerabilities and long-term structural challenges. The most pressing concern is the uncertainty over the duration and magnitude of new US tariffs, currently under a 90-day review. Prolonged trade protectionism could significantly depress global growth, impacting Cambodia through investment and trade channels. In the longer term, Cambodia's graduation from least developed country status in 2029 poses additional challenges to export competitiveness and borrowing costs. AMRO urged Cambodia to adopt a multifaceted policy approach to strengthen resilience. In the short term, targeted fiscal support and flexible monetary policies should sustain economic activity, while regional cooperation must be enhanced to boost bargaining power and foster intra-regional trade. Medium-term priorities include export diversification and improving domestic competitiveness. Swift implementation of the revenue mobilisation strategy is critical to addressing the budget shortfalls seen in 2023 and 2024. The National Bank of Cambodia should maintain an accommodative monetary stance to support liquidity and economic growth but ensure that regulatory forbearance measures addressing NPLs are time-bound to prevent moral hazard. Strengthening financial stability frameworks—including the establishment of a deposit insurance scheme, banking resolution mechanisms, and crisis management frameworks—is urgently required. AMRO commended the Cambodian government's commitment to fostering high-quality, sustainable, and inclusive growth but stressed that achieving this vision requires concrete, well-implemented policies to support underperforming sectors, enhance competitiveness, and accelerate economic diversification. Cambodia's growth is set to slow to 4.9 per cent in 2025 and 4.7 per cent in 2026 due to US tariffs, AMRO said. Inflation will rise to 2.7 per cent in 2025 before easing. AMRO urged targeted fiscal support, monetary easing, and export diversification. Financial stability frameworks and swift revenue reforms are also critical to boosting resilience. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)
Korea Herald
21-04-2025
- Business
- Korea Herald
ASEAN+3 Positioned for Resilience Amid Unprecedented Trade Shocks
SINGAPORE, April 21, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) today released its annual flagship report, the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) 2025, highlighting the region's resilience and policy capacity to withstand unprecedented global trade shocks following the US administration's sweeping tariff announcement on April 2. These tariffs mark a sharp escalation in trade protectionism and have introduced heightened uncertainty far exceeding market expectations. "The announcement of elevated and broad-based tariffs by the US, and the developments since, have added significant layers of complexity to the ASEAN+3 region's outlook," said AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor. "Nevertheless, ASEAN+3 economies today are more resilient and diversified than during past global shocks and better positioned to navigate the unfolding tariff shock." The ASEAN+3 region faces a disproportionate impact from the US tariff measures. 13 out of the 14 member economies are subject to some of the highest effective tariff rates in the April 2 announcement, with a trade-weighted average estimated at 26 percent excluding China. These rates remain fluid and will likely evolve further in the coming months. These tariffs and the uncertainty generated by the constant shifts in policies are expected to weaken trade momentum, disrupt supply chains, and increase financial market volatility. Still, the ASEAN+3 regional outlook is underpinned by resilient fundamentals. Prior to the announcement of the "Liberation Day" tariffs, AMRO had projected the region to grow above 4.0 percent in 2025 and 2026, supported by robust domestic demand, recovering investment, and low, stable inflation. However, the US tariff measures have introduced considerable uncertainty. Under the initial Liberation Day scenario, regional growth could slip below 4.0 percent in 2025 and weaken further to 3.4 percent in 2026. These preliminary projections are subject to significant uncertainties, as the US administration continually adjusts its tariff measures in response to market reactions and counter measures by trading partners. While these trade shocks will weigh on ASEAN+3, the region is entering this period from a position of relative strength and resilience. ASEAN+3 economies possess ample policy space to cushion near-term shocks. Many governments have the fiscal capacity to deliver targeted support to vulnerable sectors and sustain domestic demand. Central banks in the region have room to ease monetary policy in view of the low and well-anchored inflation rates, and can deploy macroprudential tools and liquidity facilities to safeguard financial stability. Over the years, regional economies have become more balanced, with domestic demand and intraregional trade emerging as key drivers of growth. Moreover, the region is now supported by a more diversified export market. The region's share of exports to the US has declined steadily over the years. Exports to the US now make up just 15 percent of gross exports, compared to about 24 percent in 2000. Deepening intraregional trade and rapidly expanding domestic markets have reduced dependency on any single export market. Continued progress in regional integration and trade diversification will further strengthen the region's ability to weather global turbulence. As the region responds to these near-term risks, it should continue to aim at achieving development goals to revitalize its declining long-term growth and further build resilience to external shocks. Allen Ng, AMRO Group Head for Regional Surveillance, said: "Reinvigorating structural reforms and enhancing productivity are critical to unlocking the region's untapped growth potential. Accelerating digitalization, embracing green transitions, and boosting productivity, can help ASEAN+3 sustain resilient, high-quality growth." Key medium to long-term priorities include upgrading industrial capabilities, diversifying into renewable energy industries and markets, narrowing investment gaps, strengthening institutional capacity, increasing services productivity, and deepening integration in areas such as services and digital trade. Despite today's uncertain environment, the region has demonstrated its ability to endure and adapt. As Khor concluded: "ASEAN+3 has proven its remarkable resilience time and again in the face of global shocks. In this volatile trade landscape, unity and coordinated action will be essential." The full AREO 2025 report is available on the AMRO website. The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) is an international organization established to contribute toward securing macroeconomic and financial stability of the ASEAN+3 region. AMRO's mandate is to conduct macroeconomic surveillance, support regional financial arrangements, and provide technical assistance to the members. In addition, AMRO also serves as a regional knowledge hub and provides support to ASEAN+3 financial cooperation.
