Latest news with #ANDREWGRANTHAM
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Canada's economy grows by 2.2% annualized rate in first quarter
TORONTO (Reuters) -Canada's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, expanding by a 2.2% annualized rate, data showed on Friday. Market reaction: CAD/ LINK: COMMENTS ANDREW GRANTHAM, SENIOR ECONOMIST, CIBC CAPITAL MARKETS "While headline GDP growth was solid in Q1, it was flattered by a surge in exports as companies looked to front-run potential US tariffs. Domestic demand was weak during the quarter, and monthly data point towards only slight upward momentum heading into Q2." "Early tracking for Q2 - assuming flat readings for May and June - points towards modest growth of 0.5% annualized. While that would clearly be below the economy's long-run potential, suggesting that slack is building up again, it would be better than the Bank of Canada's April MPR (Monetary Policy Report) scenarios." DOUG PORTER, CHIEF ECONOMIST, BMO CAPITAL MARKETS "I think the bottom line here is the economy held up better than most most had expected. We were looking for a decent first quarter but it was better than decent." "On top of that, and maybe the biggest surprise of all today, is the early reading on April is for a small gain following a similar size one-tenth (of a percentage point) increase in March. That's frankly quite impressive." "We can take out the details of the first quarter numbers - they're not nearly as strong as the headline would suggest. But still the overall number is nevertheless important here. There's no real sign of distress in the economy from the GDP figures and I think that's the most important message." "I think this heavily reduces the chances of the Bank of Canada cutting next week." ANDREW KELVIN, HEAD OF CANADIAN AND GLOBAL RATE STRATEGY AT TD SECURITIES "I would say the Q1 numbers being a little bit better than expected is a positive development. Some people may focus on that final domestic demand was effectively flat but a lot of that was due to softer government spending. We did see positive business investment and I think that is really important because that was a category we were looking at to suffer in particular due to uncertainty on the trade front." "We're not yet seeing the signs of a material hit to activity due to trade tensions and for that reason, I think it should be regarded as a positive surprise." "On the basis of the GDP data, it's difficult to make the case for a rate cut in June." "Looking forward, we still expect the economy to show some degree of weakness in the middle part of this year. We still look for growth to be essentially flat for Q2 and Q3, which we think will require additional policy easing from the Bank of Canada."
Reuters
04-04-2025
- Business
- Reuters
VIEW Canada's economy sheds 32,600 jobs in March
TORONTO, April 4 (Reuters) - Canada's total employment fell and the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.7% in March, data showed on Friday, as uncertainty around tariffs and their subsequent implementation took a toll on hiring and spurred some layoffs. Market reaction: Link: opens new tab COMMENTARY ANDREW GRANTHAM, SENIOR ECONOMIST, CIBC CAPITAL MARKETS "The wheels may be starting to fall off the Canadian labour market, with a 33K decline in jobs during March falling well short of consensus forecasts for a 10K gain." "Overall, today's report was clearly weaker than expected, although next week's BoC surveys and global risk sentiment will also be key in determining whether the Bank continues to cut interest rates or elects to skip a meeting later this month." "There was high breadth so the details tend to bolster how bad the headline was. The one thing I would flag though is that I think we are somewhat cooking the books in terms of the seasonal adjustment factors. It was the lowest seasonal adjustment factor for the month of March on record so that amplified or distorted some of the downside ... It was soft but I think that's a big caveat around the number."
Reuters
07-02-2025
- Business
- Reuters
VIEW Canada's economy adds 76,000 jobs in January
TORONTO, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Canada's economy added 76,000 jobs in January and the jobless rate edged down to 6.6%, Statistics Canada data showed on Friday. Market reaction: "76,000 jobs is substantially more than we'd expected and it fits with the Bank of Canada's relatively optimistic narrative around the Canadian economy." "I still think a March Bank of Canada (interest rate) cut is likely but if we see this data continue through the first quarter the Bank of Canada may become increasingly confident that they've achieved a soft landing." DOUG PORTER, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT BMO CAPITAL MARKETS "It is an impressive number, especially given the fact that December was also pretty robust as well. Most of the details were something positive as well. So most important thing is that the unemployment numbers fell while most were looking for an increase. I think that alone speaks volumes." "Clearly if it was not for the potential trade war we would be talking about the Canadian economy turning a corner and I think that we are seeing that in a number of different statistics whether it is job numbers or something like auto sales. So it does look like the decline in interest rates is really beginning to help the domestic economy turn around." ANDREW GRANTHAM, SENIOR ECONOMIST, CIBC CAPITAL MARKETS "Overall, this is clearly a very positive report once again. However, even after the improvement seen during the past two months, the unemployment rate is still only just back to where it stood in October, and is still consistent with a labour market with plenty of slack. We continue to think that even lower interest rates will be needed for the economy to fully absorb that slack, particularly given heightened trade uncertainty which could impact hiring decisions ahead."
