2 days ago
AUKUS is probably dead
A recent release: Prominent New Zealand leaders Helen Clark, Sir Geoffrey Palmer, Sir David Carter, Dr Don Brash, Mr Carl Worker, and Mr David Mahon have placed a full-page open letter in Stuff and NZME newspapers expressing grave concern about New Zealand's foreign policy open letter, co-signed by the group of influential New Zealand figures, cautions Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, and his Government, against taking an adversarial stance against China as part of an alignment with the United States.'While good relations with the United States must be maintained, we see considerable disadvantage to New Zealand in becoming part of defence arrangements, including the associated prospective AUKUS Pillar Two, which are explicitly aimed at China,' said former Prime Minister Helen Clark.'
For many years, New Zealand has maintained a balanced foreign policy, building strong relationships with both the United States and China. That has served our national interests well. Recent moves by the Government, however, suggest an increasing willingness to align New Zealand with the United States in a way that could harm our relationship with China.'
First of all AUKUS is probably dead as far as NZ is concerned. Trump doesn't see allies, just cost centres. He will not see any benefit in the US sharing military technology with New Zealand. Hell, he may even renege on the deal with Australia. The chance of NZ being invited in, is minuscule now I would say.
The characterisation of recent foreign policy changes as being aligning with the US against China is misleading, in my opinion. First of all the changes started under the Ardern Government (which they deserve credit for). They started because Russia launched a war of aggression against Ukraine, and China has been a cheerleader for them. The decade long project of believing trading with authoritarian states would make them more benign has (sadly) failed. China has itself become much more aggressive.
The change in NZ's stance has zero to do with the US. It is to do with how Russia and China have behaved. In fact the US is itself becoming very unreliable, and hence NZ's future is probably not with AUKUS, but a looser collection of alliances with Australia, UK, the EU, Canada, Japan, South Korea etc. The letter specifically addresses recent actions, including the authorisation of New Zealand naval vessels through the Taiwan Strait, the strengthening of defence ties with the Philippines amid tensions in the South China Sea, and visits to Taiwan led by Government parliamentarians.
Why would we not have MPs visit Taiwan, and not have better defence ties with the Philippines? We're not a vassal state of China.
