Latest news with #AbbaEbanInstitute

First Post

Trump creates tariff firewall against China, its companies turn attention to Brazil

China's energy strategy faces disruption as Israel's strikes on Iran threaten key oil supply routes. With US trade tensions rising, Chinese firms are pivoting to Brazil while Beijing accelerates its push for energy self-sufficiency. Analysts warn the conflict could weaken China's regional influence and diplomatic ambitions. read more China's decades-long push to secure energy dominance through partnerships with Iran is facing a major test as the Israel-Iran war threatens to choke Beijing's oil supply lines and disrupt its regional ambitions. The fallout, combined with escalating trade tensions with Washington, is prompting a reorientation of Chinese corporate interests toward markets like Brazil, according to a report by the Financial Times. Chinese President Xi Jinping this week urged restraint from all sides in the escalating Middle East conflict, while also criticising US interference in China's trade with Iran. Yet, concerns in Beijing are mounting as Israel continues to target Iranian oil and nuclear facilities. Analysts say this not only jeopardises China's access to cheap Iranian crude but also threatens its broader diplomatic and energy strategy in the region. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'If this situation continues to escalate, then they lose quite a bit, both in terms of their energy security and Iran as a strategic card that China holds,' said Gedaliah Afterman of Israel's Abba Eban Institute, speaking to FT. Iran has become a vital energy partner for China, particularly since US-led sanctions intensified in 2018. China buys the bulk of Iran's oil exports—reaching as much as 1.6 million barrels a day at its peak in 2024—and supplies Tehran with essential goods, including electronics, vehicles, and even nuclear equipment. But Iranian shipments to China dropped to 740,000 barrels a day by April, driven by fears of further sanctions and intensifying regional instability. The risk of an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—through which billions of dollars in Gulf oil flows to China adds to Beijing's anxiety. While some Chinese analysts say OPEC+ producers may fill the gap in a worst-case scenario, any broader disruption would drive up prices and hit China's energy security. China's reliance on Gulf suppliers is significant. Besides Iran, Saudi Arabia is its largest oil provider outside Russia. In natural gas, over a quarter of China's LNG imports last year came from Qatar and the UAE. Even with long-term contracts, Chinese importers may be forced to turn to the spot market at higher costs if the regional crisis widens. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The FT report also highlights that President Xi's broader strategy of energy self-sufficiency may now accelerate. China is already the world's top user of oil, but under Xi, it has embarked on a massive renewable push. Solar and wind now make up 56% of total electricity power plant capacity, up from a third ten years ago. 'This crisis will only make Beijing double down,' said Neil Beveridge of Bernstein Research. 'If it wasn't happening fast enough before, it will be happening even faster now.' At the same time, the US-China rivalry continues to simmer. Former President Donald Trump has moved to harden trade restrictions on Beijing, creating what analysts describe as a 'tariff firewall.' Facing mounting pressure, many Chinese firms are increasingly eyeing Brazil as an alternative trade partner and investment destination, particularly in sectors like agriculture, green energy, and critical minerals. Beijing's broader diplomatic ambitions in the Middle East have also taken a hit. China's influence surged with its mediation of the 2023 Saudi-Iran deal and its 25-year cooperation pact with Tehran. But analysts were quoted by FT as highlighting its role as a neutral broker has been diminished by the latest conflict and its cautious response. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'The demise or the collapse of the Iranian system or the Iranian power as we knew it is not good news for China,' Yun Sun of the Stimson Center told FT. 'That indirectly means that American influence has expanded.' Experts echoed that for Beijing, the Israel-Iran war is a stark reminder of the vulnerability in its foreign energy bets and the geopolitical limits of its global aspirations.