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Al Jazeera
31-03-2025
- Politics
- Al Jazeera
Is Sudan's war merging with South Sudanese conflicts?
New alliances in Sudan's civil war risk sparking a regional conflict by drawing in neighbouring South Sudan, analysts tell Al Jazeera. The biggest development was an alliance in February between the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), who established a government to rival Sudan's current de facto leadership. The RSF has been at war with Sudan's army since April 2023 and seeks to increase its control and influence in central and eastern Sudan to expand its operational theatre. SPLM-N is an armed movement headed by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu, which has been fighting Sudan's army for decades and controls swaths of the states of South Kordofan and Blue Nile, both on the border with South Sudan. Analysts said Sudan's army is responding by backing South Sudanese militias to fight the SPLM-N and the RSF along their shared 2,000km (1,240-mile) border. South Sudan is already dealing with its own political crisis, which could tip the country back into an all-out civil war. 'If things fall apart in South Sudan, then that would make it very difficult to separate the war in Sudan from the war in South Sudan,' Alan Boswell, an expert on South Sudan and Sudan for the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera. SPLM-N has been criticised for allying with the RSF, which is accused of committing numerous atrocities by the United Nations and other observers. Al-Hilu likely chose the alliance because he couldn't afford to stay neutral any longer, said Kholood Khair, an expert on Sudan and the founding director of the Confluence Advisory think tank. 'Abdel Aziz realised the RSF will soon be his neighbour [next to South Kordofan state] and he can't fight both the army and the RSF at the same time,' she told Al Jazeera. On March 23, the RSF captured West Kordofan state, which borders South Kordofan South Kordofan also shares borders with North Kordofan and White Nile states. The latter serves as a major strategic point to reach central Sudan, including the country's breadbasket state known as Gezira, which the RSF recently lost to the army. Blue Nile state is also a strategic point because it shares an international border with Ethiopia. Partnering with SPLM-N gives the RSF a much larger operational theatre to smuggle in supplies from South Sudan and Ethiopia and plot new attacks against the army – and civilians – in central and northern Sudan, Boswell said. 'The army wanted to push RSF west of the Nile [towards the western region of Darfur] by basically capturing all the bridges [in Khartoum],' he told Al Jazeera. 'But if RSF can go back and forth through [South Sudan] from South Kordofan and if it can go through Blue Nile and into Ethiopia, that poses a major threat and makes the army's containment strategy that much more difficult,' he said. During Sudan's second north-south civil war from 1983 to 2005, before South Sudan became independent, Khartoum sought to undermine the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), the main group fighting for the south's liberation. To do so, it supported southern militias against it. The war ended with a peace agreement that gave southerners the right to vote in an independence referendum, and in 2011, South Sudan became the newest country in the world. SPLM-N, which grew out of the SPLM, shares the South Sudanese ruling elite's history of fighting the Sudanese army. During the civil war, the Nuba tribespeople of South Kordofan and Blue Nile fought as part of the SPLM while the government 'normally relied on proxies to fight its wars', said Hafez Mohamed, who is originally from the Nuba Mountains and heads the human rights group Justice Africa. In 1987, the government began arming nomads and pastoralists referred to as 'Arabs' to fight against sedentary farmers in the south who are seen as 'non-Arabs'. For years to come, this divide-and-conquer approach would be the army's modus operandi to combat rebellions across the country, most famously birthing in the early 2000s what would later become the RSF. When President Omar al-Bashir came to power through a bloodless military coup in 1989, he doubled down on this strategy by forming the Popular Defence Forces (PDF) – an instrument for the then-National Islamic Front ruling party to politically and militarily mobilise young men. The 'Arab' PDF forces became notorious for setting entire villages on fire and carrying out summary killings. The terrifying abuses often exacerbated local competition for farmland, which stems from decades of aggressive state-backed land policies that enriched national elites and uprooted local communities for industrial farming. After South Sudan seceded, the Nuba felt left behind in Sudan. According to the peace agreement that ended the civil war, the Nuba in Blue Nile and South Kordofan would engage in vaguely worded 'popular consultations' with the central government to address the root causes of conflict. However, the consultations never materialised due to a lack of political will from Khartoum and the Nuba fighters. The former was looking to consolidate control over what remained of Sudan through force. The latter, rebranded as the SPLM-N, continued their rebellion with limited political and logistical help from South Sudanese President Salva Kiir, according to a report by Small Arms Survey from March 2013. These historical ties, Boswell said, make Sudan's army chief, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, believe Kiir is quietly backing the RSF and SPLM-N alliance. 'Kiir has always been close with SPLM-N,' he told Al Jazeera. 'And from the [army's] perspective, it holds [South Sudan] accountable for anything SPLM-N does.' Kiir may even be surprised that his old comrades have inked a partnership with the RSF. In 2015, the army had dispatched the RSF to the Nuba Mountains to battle al-Hilu's fighters. However, the RSF suffered a humiliating defeat largely because it was more accustomed to fighting in the sprawling desert of Darfur than the green uplands of the Nuba Mountains. The origins of the RSF date back to the first Darfur war in 2003, in which 'Arab' tribal militias were recruited by the army to crush a mainly 'non-Arab' rebellion against state neglect and lack of representation in the central government. The 'Arab' militias committed countless atrocities, such as summary killings and systematic rape, earning them the name the 'Janjaweed', meaning 'Devils on Horseback' in Sudanese Arabic. In 2013, al-Bashir repackaged the Janjaweed into the RSF to help his regime and fight counterinsurgencies across the country, not just Darfur. Little did he know that the RSF would rebel against the army years later. The army now appears to be activating other old proxies in South Sudan to counter the new partnership. South Sudan is loosely split politically between militia and regular forces loyal to Kiir and an array of militias nominally aligned with Vice President Riek Machar. Kiir belongs to the Dinka, South Sudan's largest ethnic group, while Machar is a Nuer, the second largest tribe. Their rivalry dates back to the pre-independence civil war, which saw Machar accept help from Khartoum's government to fight against the SPLM in an attempt to overthrow its then-leader John Garang. In July 2005, seven months after the war came to an end, Garang died in a helicopter crash. Kiir, who was his deputy, quickly assumed control of the SPLM. In 2013, two years after South Sudan gained independence, a power struggle between Machar and Kiir descended into a civil war. Most Nuer forces loosely aligned with Machar coalesced into the SPLM-In Opposition (SPLM-IO) to differentiate themselves from Kiir's SPLM. The violence killed about 400,000 people before a shaky power-sharing agreement was signed five years later. While violence in South Sudan's capital, Juba, calmed down after the peace deal, atrocities continued in the peripheries due to the government's practices of appointing corrupt governors, coopting local militias and extracting resources, according to Joshua Craze, an independent expert on South Sudan and Sudan. He added that Sudan's current war has been spilling into the conflict-ridden peripheries of South Sudan, referencing clashes between some SPLM-IO commanders and the RSF this month. The RSF and SPLM-N are present along the shared border with South Kordofan running next to South Sudan's Unity and Upper Nile states. Some of the clashes with the RSF reportedly took place with an SPLM-IO armed group in Upper Nile. More fighting reportedly took place in Sudan's Blue Nile state. '[Sudan's army] pretty much wants to disrupt RSF's movements along the [South Sudan-Sudan border] …by supporting some SPLM-IO commanders,' Craze told Al Jazeera. Al Jazeera sent written questions to Sudanese army spokesperson Nabil Abdullah asking if the army was providing logistical and material support to SPLM-IO factions. He had not responded by the time of publication. On Thursday, Kiir sent his security forces to place Machar under house arrest, a move that now pushes South Sudan closer to the brink of an all-out civil war, according to the UN. Kiir accuses Machar of supporting the Nuer community militias that fought with government forces this month. But Craze said Machar has no command over these militias and added that they are responding to the government's predatory and oppressive behaviour in their regions. 'What we are facing is very disturbing and dangerous. We are facing the total fragmentation of South Sudan,' Craze told Al Jazeera. If this forecast is true, then many young South Sudanese men may end up fighting as mercenaries in Sudan, Boswell said, noting that army-backed groups and the RSF are already recruiting South Sudanese and 'recruitment could pick up.' He warned that if South Sudan slips back into civil war, the RSF would likely benefit. 'I don't think a collapse in Juba plays into the interest of [Sudan's army],' he said. 'Even if the army thinks Juba helps the RSF, the collapse of South Sudan would give the RSF a much greater operational theatre than it already has.'
Mada
24-02-2025
- Politics
- Mada
Sudan Nashra: Military nears full control over Khartoum RSF hosts conference to form parallel govt
Military operations continue in Khartoum State as the Sudanese Armed Forces work to consolidate their hold over Bahri city after driving out the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) from long-held positions last week. With the Bahri locality now secured, the military is pushing into the vast East Nile locality in eastern Bahri city, tightening the siege on RSF fighters entrenched there. Meanwhile, in central Khartoum, the RSF continues to lose ground as the military advances on the Presidential Palace — one of the final RSF strongholds in the heart of the capital. To the west, in South Kordofan, the military reclaimed several areas from the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North, led by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu, forcing the group's fighters to retreat south. Meanwhile, in North Kordofan, military forces are advancing toward Obeid to break the siege on the strategic city, a move that could mark a turning point in the broader battle for Kordofan. Securing key roads between Kordofan's cities has further shifted the momentum in the military's favor. Further south, RSF units withdrawing from Gezira State have ramped up attacks on villages west of the White Nile, particularly in the Geteina locality, where hundreds were killed or wounded over the past week. RSF forces pursued those fleeing the assaults, shooting women and children evacuated by boat mid-river. Beyond the battlefield, the RSF hosted a conference on Tuesday aimed at forming a parallel government on territories under its control. The event saw more than 40 civilian, political and armed groups, including SPLM-N leader Abdel Aziz al-Hilu — whose armed group has long held large swathes of land in Kordofan and Blue Nile regions — convene in the state-owned Kenyatta International Convention Centre in Nairobi, Kenya. The Sudanese Foreign Ministry condemned the move and accused Kenya of undermining Sudan's unity and territorial integrity by agreeing to host the conference. *** Military gains full control of Bahri, advances further in East Nile In Bahri city — one of the three cities that make up the capital — the military has now cemented control over Bahri locality after reclaiming the final RSF-held positions in Kafouri and Kober neighborhoods last week. Meanwhile, RSF forces in East Nile — the vast locality stretching eastward within Bahri — are under mounting pressure as the military continues its advance deeper into the area. The military has escalated its operations in Bahri since December, with forces pushing to link their camps within its localities and with Khartoum and dislodge the RSF from long-held strongholds across the city's districts and neighborhoods. On Saturday, military forces pushed into the strategic Haj Youssef district in East Nile, capturing Station 24 — one of the RSF's key strongholds in the locality — before reaching the Old Station intersection with One Street, fully reclaiming Haj Youssef, a military source told Mada Masr. At the locality's southern front, forces from the military's Aylafoun camp maintain their siege on RSF positions near the Soba Bridge axis, the source said, backed by the Sudan Shield Forces and the Anti-Terrorism Forces — the military arm of the Sudanese General Intelligence Service. On Friday, battles broke out between these forces and RSF units that had set up advanced defenses in the Lulua neighborhood near the bridge. Soba Bridge serves as a crucial RSF supply route and a gateway to the remaining parts of East Nile. In Bahri locality, the military reached Qantara station in southern Kafouri and captured the Defense Industries System tower after clashes with RSF forces in Kafouri's Blocks 12 and 14 on Monday, a military source told Mada Masr, forcing RSF fighters to retreat eastward toward the Hilla Koko area. The military seized significant stockpiles of weapons, ammunition and communication devices in Kafouri, which served as a stronghold for RSF leadership during the war, hosting their command and control centers. In Kober, the military secured the Armed Forces bridge on Monday, which connects Bahri city to Khartoum via the eastern side of the military's General Command, the military source said. It also recaptured Universal Hospital on the same day and carried out combing operations across the area as well as in the industrial zone. According to the military source, the military's next objective is Hilla Koko, a move that would allow it to fully encircle East Nile locality and trap RSF forces within. This would also enable the military to capture the Manshiya and Soba bridges, two critical crossings leading south and west into Khartoum city. *** New military gains in central Khartoum While military units in the General Command in central Khartoum continue to advance westward toward the Presidential Palace, the Armored Corps advanced from its positions in Hilla al-Gadida eastward on Monday toward the Abu Hamama and Saggana areas, a field source told Mada Masr. The corps units secured Hurriya Street up to the bridge of the same name, near the southeastern Arab Market area, a field source told Mada Masr. Residents in Khartoum told Mada Masr that military aircraft flew overhead on Wednesday and Thursday. They said they could see thick smoke rising from the Arab Market area near the palace and other parts of central and eastern Khartoum. The field source said that the battles saw the military employ heavy weaponry and tanks, culminating in its capture of the Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company towers, the Animal Resources Ministry building, the Police Towers, the National Medical Supplies Fund building and Saggana Street. As the military captured Hurriya Bridge, RSF fighters were forced to retreat southward into the eastern Dayum neighborhoods. The National Medical Supplies Fund headquarters sustained severe damage after the RSF vandalized and set fire to the premises while it was under their control, the field source said. In response to the recapture of the fund's HQ, the Professional Pharmacists Association issued a statement on Monday estimating that losses to Sudan's national pharmaceutical supply chain had reached US$500 million due to the RSF's occupation of the facility, turning it into a military base and looting essential medicines. To the west, in Omdurman, a senior military officer told Mada Masr that forces were preparing for an assault on Libya Market from multiple fronts. RSF fighters in the area are unlikely to hold their ground for long due to their inability to bring in fighters or military equipment, the source said, predicting they would withdraw southward instead. *** Military secures Rahad, North Kordofan, advances on SPLM-N (al-Hilu) strongholds in South Kordofan The military reclaimed Rahad in North Kordofan on Monday after two days of battles on the city's outskirts, a military source in the state told Mada Masr. Securing Rahad clears the way for an advance to break the siege on Obeid, the state capital. During the clashes, the military repelled an RSF attempt to encircle troops stationed in the town of Samih, located to the north of Rahad, 35 kilometers from Obeid. The RSF force advanced from Manarat al-Sheikh Wad al-Agouza, the source said. The RSF incurred dozens of casualties in the battle for Rahad, according to the source, with several combat vehicles either destroyed or seized. On Tuesday, the military launched airstrikes on RSF positions in Jebel Kordofan, near Obeid, the source added, anticipating that this would be followed by a large-scale ground operation to link Obeid's Fifth Infantry Division with military forces advancing from Rahad. The next objective would then be to push toward recapturing Dbeibat town to open the road between Nuhud city in North Kordofan and Dalang in South Kordofan, according to the source. Meanwhile, in the Reef al-Shargi locality in South Kordofan, a military officer told Mada Masr that the military reclaimed Dushul on the Kadugli-Dalang road on Tuesday, an area that was controlled by the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) led by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu. The forces also captured an SPLM-N camp after several days of operations. The offensive began with the 14th Infantry Division mobilizing from Kadugli, advancing through the Kweik area before seizing the camp on Tuesday. The officer added that military forces would continue their advance on SPLM-N (al-Hilu) strongholds to consolidate control over the locality and ultimately reach Dalang. Earlier this month, SPLM-N (al-Hilu) artillery struck the military-held capital of South Kordofan, Kadugli, killing at least 44 civilians and injuring 35 others. The SPLM-N (al-Hilu) has been in conflict with the military in their territories in South Kordofan and the southern Blue Nile State since 2011. Following the ousting of former President Omar al-Bashir and in the years leading up to the outbreak of the war in 2023, the Sudanese military and the rebel group existed in a state of neither war nor peace, renewing a ceasefire agreement on an annual basis. Since the war, fighting has resumed between the two — except for a precarious alliance when the RSF attempted incursions into SPLM-N-held areas. *** RSF escalate violence on village residents in White Nile RSF forces in White Nile State escalated their attacks on the state's western villages over the past week, carrying out mass executions, kidnappings and widespread looting. The violence has surged since December 2024, as RSF fighters retreated into the region following major defeats in Gezira and Khartoum. At least 22 villages were subjected to deadly attacks between December 2024 and February 2025. Between Sunday and Wednesday, Kardis village endured some of the most brutal assaults. RSF fighters executed civilians inside their homes and in public squares, kidnapped residents and looted markets and homes, a resident from the village told Mada Masr. RSF fighters also fired on boats evacuating women and children across the White Nile, killing around 66 civilians, the source added. A field source from the White Nile Emergency Room told Mada Masr that since Monday, at least 400 civilians had been killed in RSF attacks, while 120 others are being treated for gunshot wounds. The figures do not include those killed in the Kardis attack, the source noted. The emergency room also documented at least 12 cases of sexual violence in Geteina locality between Sunday and Monday, including assaults on minors, the source added. RSF forces also kidnapped at least 18 individuals, demanding ransoms of one million Sudanese pounds per hostage, a resident of Geteina told Mada Masr. A source in the state government told Mada Masr that villages in Geteina locality have been subjected to repeated RSF attacks. Between February 2024 and February 2025, around 1,500 civilians have been killed or wounded in these assaults, the source said. Geteina's executive director Nasser al-Aghbash told Mada Masr that, in December 2024, the RSF deliberately flooded villages in western White Nile by closing the Jabal Awliya Dam gates, displacing around 83,000 residents. *** Military recaptures strategic sites near Khartoum In White Nile State, the military's special operations forces advanced on Monday toward the town of Dardar, near Geteina, after capturing Naeema on Saturday, two local sources told Mada Masr. Naeema is a strategic area as it hosts an oil pumping station that channels oil from South Sudan to the Bashayer port in eastern Sudan for export. By Tuesday, the military had pushed further, the sources added, capturing several villages near Geteina, where RSF forces had been carrying out widespread killings and looting this week. In Gezira State, a source in the military-allied popular mobilized forces told Mada Masr that the military reclaimed Kab al-Gadad, a key RSF hub for stockpiling looted goods and supplies. Securing Kab al-Gadad paves the way for military forces stationed in Giyad industrial city to advance toward Bagir and then enter southern Khartoum. *** Military, joint force repel RSF attack on Zamzam displacement camp On Monday, the RSF launched a renewed assault on the Zamzam displacement camp, southwest of Fasher, the capital of North Darfur. The military's Sixth Infantry Division in Fasher stated that the military, joint force and mobilized local fighters repelled the attack, destroying several RSF combat vehicles and asserting full control over the camp. Meanwhile, the military carried out an airdrop operation in Fasher on Tuesday and Wednesday, delivering logistical and military supplies to its factions in the area, according to a local source who spoke to Mada Masr, while the RSF continued shelling residential neighborhoods, military sites and service buildings. The military also deployed reinforcements from the city of Dabba in Northern State toward Darfur, aiming to cut off RSF supply lines and break the siege on Fasher, a military source in Dabba's military area told Mada Masr. According to the Sudan News Agency, Transitional Sovereignty Council member and military Assistant Commander Yasser al-Atta, Chief of Staff General Mohamed Othman al-Hussein and Darfur Governor Minni Arko Minnawi inspected troops stationed in Dabba and other mobilization points en route to Darfur on Monday. Speaking to a group of assembled soldiers, Atta vowed that the RSF would pay for its crimes in blood, pledging to fight those attempting to establish a parallel government in every corner of Sudan. *** RSF holds conference to form parallel govt The RSF continued their international political maneuvers last week, convening on Tuesday a founding conference to form a parallel government in territories under their control, as well as in areas held by other armed groups, most notably the SPLM-N (al-Hilu). Speaking to Mada Masr, RSF preparatory committee rapporteur and advisor Ezzeddin al-Safi said that Nairobi's Kenyatta International Convention Center hosted the opening of the consultative sessions on Tuesday. The session gathered around 600 participants from across Sudan and neighboring countries, representing over 40 armed movements and political and civil groups, including professional associations, local administrations and women and youth organizations. Key figures and bodies expected to sign the founding charter, according to Safi, include the National Umma Party leader Fadlallah Burma Nasser, SPLM-N leader Abdel Aziz al-Hilu, the United Civil Forces, the Sudan Liberation Movement-Transitional Council, the Gathering of Sudan Liberation Forces, the Justice and Equality Movement, the Beja Congress, as well as various civil society organizations. Discussions continued until Friday, Safi added, concluding with the signing of the political charter. He stressed, however, that the move does not seek to form a government-in-exile in Nairobi, but aims to finalize and endorse the charter and interim constitution with the government announced from within Sudan. Talks are also underway with Sudan Liberation Movement Army leader Abdel Wahid al-Nur and other political and social groups to build a broader civilian front, according to Safi. The move, which saw political and armed forces convene in Nairobi, led to sharp rifts within the Civil Front for Democracy, leading to its split into two groups. The first, Tasees, emerged from the RSF's meetings in the Kenyan capital, while the second, Sumud, opposed forming a parallel government. The latter includes the Sudanese Congress Party and the National Umma Party and is led by former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok. Kenya's agreeing to host the RSF-led conference also heightened tensions with Sudan. The Sudanese government condemned the move, which a source in the Sudanese Foreign Ministry described as a blatant bias toward the RSF that threatens Sudan's unity and territorial integrity. In a statement on Tuesday, Sudan's Foreign Ministry denounced Kenya's actions, arguing that Nairobi demonstrated a lack of respect for Sudan. A second source in the ministry told Mada Masr that, in the Kenyan Foreign Ministry's response to Sudan's protest, Kenya failed to explicitly reaffirm Sudan's unity and territorial integrity. Instead, the statement referred to 'the Sudanese people's right to self-determination,' which, according to the source, amounts to direct support for the RSF's plan to divide Sudan under the pretext of self-determination.
Al-Ahram Weekly
06-02-2025
- Politics
- Al-Ahram Weekly
At least 80 killed in southern Sudan violence: UN - War in Sudan
The United Nations warned Thursday that two southern Sudan states were "on the brink of catastrophe" after a recent eruption of violence reportedly killed at least 80 people in one city. Renewed fighting broke out last week in the states of South Kordofan and Blue Nile between the army and a faction of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) led by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu. United Nations resident and humanitarian coordinator in Sudan Clementine Nkweta-Salami said the fighting had reportedly claimed at least 80 lives in South Kordofan state capital Kadugli alone. "I condemn the reported use of women and children as human shields in Kadugli, the obstruction of humanitarian aid, and the detention of civilians including children," the UN's most senior official in the country said in a statement. Sudan's army and its main rival, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, have been at war for control of the country since April 2023, creating a widespread humanitarian crisis. Hilu's unaffiliated faction of the SPLM-N has clashed with both since the war broke out. In recent days, the army and the SPLM-N have accused each other of launching attacks and targeting civilians in an attempt to capture territory. The UN warned the escalating violence would only worsen the already dire humanitarian situation, with millions cut off from life-saving aid. "The consequences of food insecurity are already being felt in parts of South Kordofan, where families are surviving on dangerously limited food supplies, and malnutrition rates are rising sharply," Thursday's statement said. Around half a million people are currently on the brink of famine in South Kordofan and Blue Nile, according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. The UN-backed assessment has already declared famine in parts of the Nuba Mountains, where SPLM-N maintains a foothold. Across the country, fighting since April 2023 has killed tens of thousands, uprooted 12 million and pushed nearly 26 million people into acute food insecurity. Short link:
