Latest news with #AbinashMohanty
Time of India
a day ago
- Climate
- Time of India
Your city could get twice as hot—India braces for spike in heatwaves and extreme rains
New Delhi: If you've been feeling that summers are getting hotter and rains more unpredictable, you're not alone—and it's going to get worse. A new climate risk study by IPE Global and Esri India warns that eight out of every ten districts in India are set to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves and rainfall by 2030. The report found that cities like Mumbai, Delhi, Patna, Chennai, Surat, Thane, Hyderabad, and Bhubaneswar could witness a two-fold increase in heatwave days, with climate change turning once-predictable seasons into extremes. The study noted a 15-fold rise in extreme heatwave days across the March–September period in the last three decades and a 19-fold surge in the past ten years alone. These changes are not limited to temperatures. The report shows that erratic and heavy rains are becoming more common in regions already facing heat stress. The combination is expected to disrupt lives, damage infrastructure, and affect local economies. Coastal districts, particularly on both eastern and western coasts, are projected to experience extended heat stress during the monsoon season. Around 69% of these districts could face summer-like conditions during June to September by 2030, rising to 79% by 2040. Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Manipur are among the states likely to experience a double impact of heat and rainfall extremes. Over 80% of districts in these states are projected to be affected by 2030. Abinash Mohanty, Head of the Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and the study's lead author, said, 'The study and its stark findings suggest how climate change has exposed India to extreme heat and rainfall and the situation is going to be grimmer and harsher by 2030 with majority of the urban centres going to be impacted the most. Further, the meteorological phenomena like El Niño & La Niña are going to gain stronger momentum, resulting in abrupt surge in climate extremes like flood, cyclones, storm surges and extreme heat.' According to the analysis, 72% of tier-I and tier-II cities are expected to witness more instances of heat stress, extreme rainfall , storm surges, lightning, and hailstorms. Areas identified as hotspots are projected to undergo a 63% shift in land-use and land-cover, largely driven by surface changes, deforestation, and loss of wetlands. The report finds that extreme heatwave hotspots are increasingly seeing more erratic and incessant rainfall. It highlights that monsoon seasons are now resembling extended summers, except on non-rainy days. Ashwajit Singh, Managing Director of IPE Global, said, 'Climate and development pathways are intricately linked. Nearly all countries of the Global South face the dual challenge of improving living conditions for large segments of their population while simultaneously adapting to the consequences of climate change.' The study recommends establishing a Climate Risk Observatory (CRO) that uses real-time data, satellite observation, and climate models to assess and predict heat and rainfall risks at the district level. The CRO could guide policymakers, disaster management teams, and infrastructure planners with targeted data. Agendra Kumar, Managing Director, Esri India, said, 'The growing intensity and frequency of extreme heat and rainfall events across India are no longer rare occurrences—they are signals of a shifting climate reality impacting lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure. Geographic Information System (GIS) technology… offers a powerful lens to understand climate impacts across economic, social, and environmental dimensions.' The report also calls for introducing district-level 'heat-risk champions' to coordinate efforts through local disaster management committees and to explore climate risk financing mechanisms to manage future weather disruptions. The study uses a dynamic climate modelling approach with hyper-local assessments to forecast risks for 2030 and 2040. It concludes that relying solely on global models may not be sufficient for planning India's climate adaptation strategies.
Indian Express
a day ago
- Climate
- Indian Express
Delhi among eight Indian cities facing double heatwave threat by 2030: Report
Delhi is one of eight Indian cities projected to experience a two-fold increase in the number of heatwave days by 2030, according to a latest research report. Mumbai, Chennai, Surat, Thane, Hyderabad, Patna, and Bhubaneswar are the seven other cities that are at a similar risk. Titled 'Weathering the Storm: Managing Monsoons in a Warming Climate', the report was released jointly by Esri India, a geographic information systems (GIS) solutions provider, and IPE Global, an international development consultancy group, on Monday. It is co-authored by climate experts Abinash Mohanty and Krishna Kumar Vsav. 'Extended heat wave conditions are likely to trigger more frequent, incessant, and erratic rainfall events. Eight out of ten districts in India are going to experience multiple instances of incessant and erratic rainfall by 2030,' the report stated. Delhi, which has already seen a heatwave this month, is projected to face heightened climate risks as summer conditions now increasingly spill over into the monsoon season. 'These extreme temperature events are not just limited to the peak summer months — they now increasingly overlap with the monsoon season, creating a dual threat of oppressive heat and extreme rainfall,' underlined a statement by Esri India. The report highlights a disturbing trend of intensifying heatwaves and prolonged summer-like conditions that extend well into the monsoon. It has warned of a 2.5-fold increase in the number of heatwave days by 2030 and a 43% rise in the intensity of extreme rainfall events across India, both driven by accelerating climate change. According to the analysis, India has seen a 15-fold increase in extreme heatwave days from March to May and June to September over the past three decades (1993–2024). The last decade alone recorded a 19-fold increase in such events, underscoring the growing urgency for climate adaptation, as per the findings. In the context of Delhi, this means that extreme heat will no longer be confined to the peak summer months but may coincide with heavy monsoon rains, posing a compound risk to the city's residents. In the report, it was further highlighted that about 72% of Tier-I and Tier-II cities are likely to face increased occurrences of both heat stress and extreme rainfall, often accompanied by storm surges, lightning, and hailstorms. Districts across diverse geographies — including Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, and Odisha — have been flagged as vulnerable hotspots, indicating the pan-India nature of climate change risks. Among the states in the country, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh are expected to face the greatest stress, with over 75% of their districts likely to endure this 'double whammy' of persistent heat and erratic rains by the end of the decade. In terms of the way forward, the note recommended the establishment of a Climate Risk Observatory (CRO) to provide real-time risk assessments at the national level. This system would facilitate hyper-granular risk mapping and enhance early warning systems. Another key recommendation is the development of risk financing instruments to offset the socio-economic impacts of extreme weather.
Time of India
a day ago
- Climate
- Time of India
City may see rise in heatwave days, erratic rain events: Study
Chennai: Chennai is among eight Indian cities likely to face a two-fold increase in heatwave days in the next five years, with extended heatwave conditions expected to trigger more frequent, erratic, and incessant rainfall events, says a new study. The city, along with several coastal districts, is projected to undergo rapid microclimatic changes driven by land-use shifts, deforestation, and loss of wetlands and mangroves. Climate change is expected to drive a 43% rise in the intensity of extreme rainfall events across India, making it simultaneously hotter and wetter. "More than 75% of districts in 10 states, including TN, will face the double burden of heat stress and erratic, incessant rainfall by 2030. These districts are likely to experience at least one instance of a heatwave during March, April, or May." The study was conducted by by IPE-Global, involved in sustainable development, and Esri India, a company involved in GIS software and related solutions. 'Weathering the Storm: Managing Monsoons in a Warming Climate,' which assessed the link between extreme heat and erratic rainfall, was released at the International Global-South Climate Risk Symposium. By 2030, it said, 69% of coastal districts are projected to experience prolonged summer discomfort due to heat stress-like conditions during the June-Sept season, a figure that may rise to 79% by 2040. Under a business-as-usual climate scenario, where current emission trends and policies continue unchecked, Chennai and other identified hotspots could see up to a 63% change in land-use and land-cover by 2030. India already recorded a 15-fold increase in extreme heatwave days between March-May and June-Sept in the past three decades, with a 19-fold increase in the last decade alone. "Meteorological phenomena like El Niño and La Niña are gaining stronger momentum, leading to abrupt surges in climate extremes such as floods, cyclones, storm surges, and extreme heat," said Abinash Mohanty, head of Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and lead author. "Our analysis suggests that around 72% of tier-I and tier-II cities will increasingly face heat stress and extreme rainfall, with storm surges, lightning, and hailstorms. " Among the key recommendations of the study, which used spatial and temporal data along with climate models, is setting up a Climate Risk Observatory (CRO) to assess risks in real-time and develop risk financing tools to mitigate impacts of heatwaves and extreme rainfall events.
Hindustan Times
2 days ago
- Climate
- Hindustan Times
Heatwave days to double by 2030 for most metros, says report on climate
Climate change is set to trigger a major escalation in extreme heat and rainfall events across India and the situation is likely to get grimmer and harsher by 2030 with majority of the urban centres going to be impacted the most, a study report by IPE Global and Esri India said on Tuesday. Cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Surat, Thane, Hyderabad, Patna and Bhubaneswar are projected to record a two-fold increase in heat wave days by 2030, as compared to 1980, it said, adding that extended heat wave conditions are likely to trigger more frequent, incessant and erratic rainfall events. Most districts in India are going to experience multiple instances of incessant and erratic rainfall by 2030. The frequency, intensity, and unpredictability of these extreme heat and rainfall events have risen significantly in recent decades, it said. 'India has witnessed a 15-fold increase in extreme heat wave days across the March-April-May (MAM) and June-July-August-September (JJAS) months in the last three decade (between 1993 and 2024). Alarmingly, the last decade alone has witnessed a 19-fold increase in extreme heat wave days. We found that the monsoon season in India is witnessing an extended summer-like condition except on non-rainy days,' the report said. More than 75% of districts in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Manipur will be witnessing the double whammy of heat stress induced erratic and incessant rainfall by 2030, the report said. 'These districts will witness at least one instance of heat wave during March, April and May months by 2030,' it added. Last summer, India experienced a catastrophic period marked by a prolonged heat wave and flooding, resulting in the death of over 100 people and adversely impacting the health of thousands. 'Our analysis further suggests that coastal regions will be witnessing a heat-stress-like condition during the JJAS (June-July-August-September) seasons by 2030. The percentage of districts that will be witnessing extended summer discomfort will range around 69% across the coastal districts. This will further increase to 79% by 2040,' the report projected. Abinash Mohanty, Head of the Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and lead author of the study, stressed the need for urgent action. 'The study and its stark findings suggest how climate change has exposed India to extreme heat and rainfall and the situation is going to be grimmer and harsher by 2030 with a majority of the urban centres going to be impacted the most,' he said. Mohanty added that the meteorological phenomena such El Niño and La Niña are going to gain 'stronger momentum', resulting in abrupt surge in climate extremes like flood, cyclones, storm surges and extreme heat. 'Our analysis suggests that around 72% of the tier-I & tier-II cities are going to witness an increased occurrences of heat stress and extreme rainfall events, accompanied with storm surges, lightning and hail storms,' he said. The lead author recommended that 'embracing hyper-granular risk assessments and establishing climate-risk observatories' should become a national imperative to safeguard Indian agriculture, industry, and large-scale infrastructural projects from the vagaries of climate change. The study also recommends that risk assessment principles should form the cornerstone of the country's strategy to build resilience against heat waves and extreme rainfall. As an initial step, it proposes establishing a climate risk observatory (CRO) that can help identify, assess, and project chronic and acute heat risks at a hyper-granular level. The study also recommended devising risk financing instruments to mitigate the impacts of heatwaves and extreme rainfall events.
The Hindu
2 days ago
- Climate
- The Hindu
By 2030 Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai and five other cities to experience two-fold increase in heatwave days
A study released by IPE Global and Esri India on Tuesday (June 10, 2025) reveals that Mumbai, Thane, Chennai, Delhi, Surat, Hyderabad, Patna and Bhubaneswar are projected to witness a two-fold increase in heatwave days. The study titled 'Weathering the Storm: Managing Monsoons in a Warming Climate' was unveiled at the International Global-South Climate Risk Symposium in New Delhi as part of the 62nd session of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to be held in Bonn, Germany from June 16 to 26, 2025. The study reveals that extended heat wave conditions are likely to trigger more frequent, incessant, and erratic rainfall events and eight out of ten districts in India are going to experience multiple instances of such rainfall extremes by 2030. Also Read | Study proposes novel technique for nowcasting extreme rainfall events Abinash Mohanty, Head of the Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global, said that the frequency, intensity, and unpredictability of these extreme heat and rainfall events have risen significantly in recent decades. India has witnessed a 15-fold increase in extreme heat wave days across the March-April-May (MAM) and June-July-August-September (JJAS) months in the last three decades between 1993-2024. Alarmingly, the last decade alone has witnessed a 19-fold increase in extreme heat wave days. The study also found that monsoon seasons in India are witnessing an extended summer-like condition, except on non-rainy days. Mr. Mohanty said, 'The study and its stark findings suggest how climate change has exposed India to extreme heat and rainfall, and the situation is going to be grimmer and harsher by 2030 with majority of the urban centres are going to be impacted the most.' He further said that meteorological phenomenon like El Niño (warmer phase) and La Niña (colder phase) are going to gain stronger momentum, resulting in abrupt surge in climate extremes like flood, cyclones, storm surges and extreme heat. 'Our analysis suggests that around 72 per cent of the tier-I and tier-II cities are going to witness an increased occurrence of heat stress and extreme rainfall events, accompanied by storm surges, lightning and hailstorms. Embracing hyper-granular risk assessments and establish climate-risk observatories should become a national imperative to safeguard Indian agriculture, industry, and large-scale infrastructural projects from the vagaries of climate change,' Mr. Mohanty said. Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Manipur are witnessing the double whammy of heat stress and extreme rainfall, with more than 80 percent of the districts projected to be impacted by this by 2030. According to the study, coastal regions will experience heat stress-like conditions during the JJAS season by 2030. Approximately 69% of coastal districts are projected to face extended summer discomforts by 2030, increasing to 79% by 2040. Also Read | Top climate scientist declares 2C climate goal 'dead' Recently, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres issued a 'Call to Action on Extreme Heat in response to the deadly impacts of rising temperatures all over the world', and India is no exception. Ashwajit Singh, Founder and Managing Director of IPE Global, said, 'Climate and development pathways are intricately linked. Nearly all countries of the Global South face the dual challenge of improving living conditions for large segments of their population while simultaneously adapting to the consequences of climate change. This study is a testament to how we can bring innovations from the margins to mainstream, making India and Global South climate ready.' The reason behind the extreme heatwaves The study found that eastern and western coastal districts have been observing unpredictable rainfall events more recurrently. Districts with higher heatwave occurrences in JJAS tend to have higher occurrences of incessant and erratic rainfall events as well. Districts that identified district hotspots under the current business-as-usual scenario will undergo a 63 per cent change in land-use and land-cover. These shifting patterns are driven by microclimatic changes across the Indian subcontinent that are triggered by local climate change drivers such as land-use-surface change, deforestation, encroachments on mangroves, and wetlands, said Agendra Kumar, Managing Director, Esri India. 'The growing intensity and frequency of extreme heat and rainfall events across India are no longer rare occurrences—they are signals of a shifting climate reality impacting lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure. Addressing this challenge requires a holistic, data-driven approach rooted in science and spatial intelligence. Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, with its ability to integrate, visualize, and analyze diverse datasets, offers a powerful lens to understand climate impacts across economic, social, and environmental dimensions,' Mr. Kumar added. GIS supports proactive planning—whether for climate-resilient infrastructure, disaster response, or public engagement and is already foundational to national missions like PARIVESH, Jal Jeevan Mission, and Clean Ganga, helping turn climate data into actionable insight. The study recommends that risk assessment principles should form the cornerstone of India's strategy to build resilience against heatwaves and extreme rainfall. As an initial step, it proposes establishing a Climate Risk Observatory (CRO) that can help identify, assess, and project chronic and acute heat risks at a hyper-granular level. CRO uses advanced technologies like Earth Observation data and climate models to provide real-time and predictive information that can help policymakers, city planners, businesses, and the public understand the risks posed by climate change and make informed decisions to mitigate, adapt, and prepare for those risks. The study also recommends devising risk financing instruments to mitigate the impacts of heatwaves and extreme rainfall events. It also suggests appointing heat-risk-champions within district disaster management committees to coordinate heat-risk mitigation efforts at the district level.
