Latest news with #AbrahamAccords'
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Analysis: Another word for the Trump Doctrine — Pragmatism
When it comes to Middle Eastern diplomacy, rigid ideological thinking tends to undermine American interests. US President Donald Trump's tour of Gulf capitals last month signaled that abstractions would no longer control the American approach to the region. Practical partnerships would. This was evident in 2017, when Trump said in Riyadh that he wasn't there to 'to lecture' nor 'to tell other people how to live.' While that speech was dominated by security imperatives, which was necessary at the time, the Trump Doctrine in the Middle East evolved from a recognition that America's interests are best served when its partners in the region thrive economically. In Riyadh last month, Trump praised Gulf leaders for 'forging a future where the Middle East is defined by commerce, not chaos.' Emphasizing his duty to 'defend America and to promote the fundamental interest of stability, prosperity, and peace,' he signaled a departure of US diplomats' insistence that we couldn't foster cooperation between countries until America's foreign policy addressed 'root causes.' These abstract orthodoxies resulted in false choices and stalemates rather than cooperation and progress. The Trump Doctrine rejects these artificial constraints, and the Gulf is a prime example of the approach. Trump no longer sees the region as security partners, oil suppliers, or cash machines. The president recognizes them as engines of regional prosperity whose success directly benefits American industry. Gulf countries pledged to invest more than $2 trillion in the US, and if they follow through, it would make Trump the most significant booster of foreign investment into the American economy. The Gulf would benefit as well, reflecting Trump's fundamental worldview that the best deals improve everyone's welfare. Prosperity is not finite but grows through smart partnerships. This pragmatism extends to diplomacy. Previous administrations often assumed that deepening ties with one partner required distancing from another. The Abraham Accords showed that cooperation doesn't have to be a tradeoff. While Trump expressed his 'dream that Saudi Arabia…will soon be joining the Abraham Accords' in Riyadh, his doctrine's pragmatism requires recognizing reality: 'You'll do it in your own time, and that's what I want.' Critics argue that the president's approach lacks a moral vision. I don't see it that way. Trump's repeated refusal to 'lecture' is best understood as an appreciation that the rapid social and economic changes in the region have not been easy. The extent of further changes will come if and when the Gulf States are ready. It is wrong — and not in America's interests — to demand that they become just like us. Trump's moral choice is to respect Gulf states' unique history, culture, religion, and society. 'Peace, prosperity and progress ultimately come not from a radical rejection of your heritage,' he said, but 'from embracing your national traditions and…heritage that you love so dearly.' Trump Doctrine pragmatism extends to Iran. In 2017, Trump warned that 'until the Iranian regime is willing to be a partner for peace, all nations of conscience must work together to isolate Iran.' Today's approach, while still harshly critical of Iran, recognizes that Gulf prosperity naturally diminishes Iranian influence while creating space for possible diplomatic solutions. Rather than demanding Arab and Muslim partners choose sides, Trump understands that a prosperous Gulf can engage from strength. If a smart, good deal with Iran can be made, all are better off. If it cannot, all options remain on the table. What emerged from the Gulf engagement last month is a mature approach tying American flourishing to partners who share Trump's vision of security, stability, and prosperity. This builds on his 2017 message that 'America is prepared to stand with you — in pursuit of shared interests and common security,' but evolves beyond security cooperation to shared prosperity. This is a natural evolution informed by regional changes and American experiences. For those of us who have spent years watching Middle East policy lurch between overcommitment and neglect, the Trump Doctrine offers something genuinely new: a sustainable framework for American engagement based on shared prosperity rather than shared enemies.
New York Post
21-05-2025
- Politics
- New York Post
Syria's new leader ‘open' to joining Abraham Accords, normalizing relations with Israel, two reps who met him say
Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa has privately expressed openness to joining the Abraham Accords and normalizing relations with Israel in a move that would dramatically shake up the Middle East, according to two congressmen who met with him last month. In exchange, al-Sharaa wanted assurances that Israel would stop bombing Syria, stop fomenting sectarian divisions and reach a renegotiated arrangement regarding the Golan Heights, Reps. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) and Martin Stutzman (R-Ind.) told The Post. 'He said, 'We're open to not only recognizing Israel, but also to try and join the Abraham Accords, but they must stop bombing within our nation,'' Mills recounted. Advertisement Trump made waves last week during his Mideast trek when, after meeting with the Syrian leader, he boldly predicted that the 'young, attractive' al-Sharaa would join the Abraham Accords, a signature foreign policy breakthrough of his first term, which saw the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain normalize relations with Israel. Prior to that prediction, al-Sharaa conveyed his openness to the Abraham Accords to both Mills and Stutzman during separate one-on-ones with the two reps, who were the first sitting members of Congress to visit Syria's new leader since the abrupt collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime last December. 6 Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa is grappling with major stability concerns in his war-torn country. REUTERS Advertisement 6 The two Republican reps believed that Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa seemed open to Christians. REUTERS Stutzman claimed that al-Sharaa told him 'he would be open to the Abraham Accords' on two major conditions. '[For] the first one was, he said that Israel had a plan to divide the country up into separate parts. I don't know if that's true or not, but that's what he told me, and he said that that would be a deal breaker,' Stutzman explained. 'He wants to keep Syria unified…any effort to divide the country into regional parts or sectarian parts was not acceptable.' 'The second one was the Golan Heights, and the encroachment around the Golan Heights — that they would have to negotiate with Israel further on that.' The Golan Heights — a major sticking point Advertisement The Syrian leader didn't specify whether joining the Abraham Accords would be contingent on getting back the Golan Heights, but simply stipulated that 'they would have to come to some agreement,' according to Stutzman's recollection. The Golan Heights is a rocky plateau in Syria's southwest region nestled between Israel, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. Israel took over the strip of land during the 1967 Six-Day War and annexed it in 1981. During the 1970s, Syria unsuccessfully attempted to reclaim the land during the Yom Kippur War. The brutal Assad family came into power in 1971 shortly before that war. The Trump administration formally recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights in 2019. Advertisement Historically, Syria has been adamant that no peace arrangement can be made with Israel until it relinquishes the Golan Heights, which the Jewish state views as a critical security buffer zone. 6 Rep. Cory Mills stressed the importance of trying to court Syria in this moment of upheaval. AP 'I don't think the Syrian government would abandon the sovereignty over the Golan Heights,' an incoming assistant minister for the Americas in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Syria told The Post. 'The Golan Heights are for all Syrians. They're not for President al-Sharaa to give away to anyone.' Qutaiba Idlbi, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Middle East Programs who leads its Syria work and was a refugee of the Assad regime, suggested the two sides could look to 'creative solutions' to address Israel's security concerns. 'I know some of the mediators, for example, have pushed for the idea to provide a long-term lease to Israel over the Golan Heights to kind of allow some time for confidence-building,' he said, 'and then have a conversation later after that lease is over about the future of that region.' Idlbi said he doesn't 'expect that President al-Sharaa would link a deal with Israel to a change in this situation in Palestine,' but noted that Syria is also already making overtures to Israel with efforts to crack down on terrorism. 'The issue of the Palestinian militias that are already in Syria have been raised in different meetings,' he said. 'The [Syrian] government has made it very clear that there will be no presence for any sort of military movement — whether Palestinian or not — on the Syrian land. 'That is already something that Syria is working on, regardless of whether you know there is a deal or not.' Advertisement 6 The Abraham Accords were one of President Trump's signature foreign policy achievements of his first term. AP 'A regional hero' While there are big hurdles in the way, Syria hypothetically joining the Abraham Accords would mark a monumental foreign policy breakthrough in the region. 'It's extremely significant,' Mills said, 'You're talking about the possibility of continual stability in the region and further recognition and protection of the great state of Israel.' Additionally, al-Sharaa's purported openness to a deal with Israel comes as he is seemingly trying to mend Syria's frayed relations with the West and Arab countries in the region. Advertisement 'As long as I've been alive, Syria has been under the Assad [family] regime,' Stutzman reflected. 'Al-Shara mentioned that he's already pushed Hezbollah out of Lebanon. He's pushing the Iranians out of Syria, and he's talking with the Qataris, Saudis and UAE to further trade and commerce.' 'He would be a regional hero if he were able to pull off the vision that he has for Syria.' Iran and Russia had long helped prop up the brutal Assad regime, which al-Sharaa fought against. Tehran has been heavily involved in Syrian telecommunications infrastructure, for example. During his meetings with Mills and Stutzman, al-Sharaa claimed that he had an offer from Russia on business and military support, but wanted to talk with the West first. Advertisement 6 President Trump met with Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa in Riyadh last week. via REUTERS Sanction relief and concerns about Syria's potential collapse Last week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman helped coordinate a meeting between al-Sharaa and Trump. The president then quickly decided to implement a 180-day waiver on sanctions against the war-torn country, a move that happened so quickly that his Treasury was reportedly caught off guard. 'Their economy is in the toilet,' Stutzman said. 'Letting the Syrian people rebuild their country is really important. And I also think that it keeps al-Shara open to the west, rather than being pushed back into the arms of the Russians or the Chinese.' Secretary of State Marco Rubio ominously warned the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Tuesday that Damascus could be on the brink of another civil war and argued that Congress may need to provide support. Advertisement 'It is our assessment that, frankly, the transitional authority, given the challenges they're facing, are maybe weeks — not many months — away from potential collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions, basically the country splitting up,' Rubio said during the committee hearing. 6 The nonprofit Syrian American Alliance for Peace and Prosperity organized the reps' unofficial visit to Syria last month. Photo Courtesy of Rep Cory Mills' Office Past ties to terrorism and elections in Syria There are plenty of skeptics of al-Sharaa in US foreign policy circles, given his past ties to Islamic extremism and affiliation with Al Qaeda, including during its activity in Iraq in 2003. Director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, who met with Assad in 2017, ripped al-Sharaa as an 'Islamic extremist' who 'danced on the streets after 9/11.' 'I think, which is very important, is not to look at people's history and where they were,' Idlbi said. 'I think the question that we need to look at is who are the people now.' Another concern among observers has been Syria's push to wait five years before holding elections. Stutzman argued that al-Sharaa made a compelling case for the delay. 'He said that first of all, they needed to rebuild the government, or they needed to build a government there that could handle the elections,' the congressman recalled. 'It is going to take time for them to rebuild their country, find some sense of normalcy for them, and then they'll focus on the elections.' Their visit was unofficial and organized by the nonprofit group Syrian American Alliance for Peace and Prosperity.
Daily News Egypt
14-05-2025
- Politics
- Daily News Egypt
Trump meets Syrian counterpart in Riyadh, urges normalisation with Israel
US President Donald Trump met with his Syrian counterpart, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, in the Saudi capital Riyadh on Wednesday, urging Syria to normalise relations with Israel, a day after Washington announced the lifting of sanctions on Damascus. The meeting, also attended by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, lasted approximately half an hour and preceded the US-Gulf summit, a White House official said. A White House spokesperson added that during their discussions, President Trump called on his Syrian counterpart to sign the 'Abraham Accords' for normalisation with Israel. The spokesperson also indicated that President Trump pressed al-Sharaa to assist Washington in preventing the resurgence of the 'ISIS' organisation and to assume responsibility for detention centres in north-eastern Syria. In response, Al-Sharaa called upon US companies to invest in Syria's oil and gas sector, the White House reported. Turkish media outlets stated that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan participated in the meeting via telephone. Turkey's Anadolu Agency reported that President Erdoğan praised the US President's decision to lift sanctions on Syria, describing it as a move of historical significance. This encounter marks the first meeting between the presidents of Syria and the United States in 25 years. According to the Syrian Foreign Ministry, President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, in a meeting that also included the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United States, expressed his gratitude for 'regional and international support.' He emphasised 'Syria's confident progress towards the future.' The Syrian Foreign Ministry described the meeting as 'historic,' noting that it underscored the importance of lifting sanctions imposed on Syria and supporting the nation's path to recovery and reconstruction. The Syrian Foreign Ministry also conveyed that the Saudi Crown Prince stressed the necessity of lifting the sanctions to achieve regional stability. Meanwhile, President Trump affirmed his country's commitment to standing by Syria at this pivotal juncture, according to the Damascus statement. In an address to the US-Gulf summit following his meeting with al-Sharaa in Riyadh, US President Donald Trump affirmed that the normalisation of relations between Washington and Damascus had commenced with the al-Sharaa meeting. He indicated that Washington is exploring this path following the removal of sanctions. This meeting occurred after President Trump announced the lifting of sanctions on Tuesday during a speech at the Saudi-US Investment Forum. He stated that the objective was to grant Syria a 'chance' foll
Gulf Insider
14-05-2025
- Business
- Gulf Insider
Trump Slams Neocons, Pushes Peace in Saudi Speech
Some highlights of President Trump's lengthy speech before the US-Saudi Investment Forum, wherein he frequently praised his Saudi host crown prince Mohammad bin Salman and advanced peace through deal-making… Markets Rocking The stock market is 'gonna go a lot higher.' He said 'People should have listened. We've never had anything like this,' and he cited the 'explosion of investment and jobs.' Business executives 'weren't that happy when they saw me,' a month ago, but changed their tune as markets rose,' Trump added. 'We are rocking: The United States is the hottest country, with the exception of your country,' Trump said, pointing to MbS in the front row before him. Saudi Arabia as Global Business/Tech Hub 'Mohammed do you sleep at night? How do you sleep?' he said, addressing the crown prince. 'Critics doubted it was possible, what you've done, but over the past eight years, Saudi Arabia has proved the critics totally wrong.' '…Instead, the birth of a modern Middle East has been brought by the people of the region themselves, the people that are right here, the people that have lived here all their lives, developing your own sovereign countries, pursuing your own unique visions and charting your own destinies in your own way.' Silence befell the crowd as Trump said that it was his 'fervent wish' that Saudi Arabia 'will soon be joining the Abraham Accords' – but he ultimately conceded that the kingdom will do it in 'it's own time'. 'It will be a special day in the Middle East, with the whole world watching, when Saudi Arabia joins us. And you'll be greatly honoring me, and you'll be greatly honoring all of those people that have fought so hard for the Middle East. And I really think it's going to be something special — but you'll do it in your own time. And that's what I want, and that's what you want, and that's the way it's going to be.' Iran put on Notice 'In the case of Iran, I have never believed in having permanent enemies. I am different than a lot of people think. I don't like permanent enemies. Sometimes you need enemies to do the job, and you have to do it right. Enemies get you motivated,' Trump said. He continued, 'I want to make a deal with Iran. I can make a deal with Iran. I'll be very happy if we're going to make your region and the world a safer place.' He offered a 'much brighter future' if Tehran will do a deal. 'If Iran's leadership rejects this olive branch and continues to attack their neighbors, then we will have no choice but to inflict massive, maximum pressure … and take all action required to stop the regime from ever having a nuclear weapon. Iran will never have a nuclear weapon,' he said. Lifting Sanctions on Syria 'Syria, they've had their share of travesty, war, killing in many years. That's why my administration has already taken the first steps toward restoring normal relations between the United States and Syria for the first time in more than a decade,' Trump said. 'The sanctions were brutal and crippling and served as an important — really an important function — nevertheless, at the time. But now it's their time to shine,' he added. So I say, 'Good luck, Syria.' Show us something very special.' Trump says he's lifting sanction on Syria to 'give them a chance at greatness.' As he gets a standing ovation, he adds of MBS, 'Oh, what I do for the Crown Prince….' — Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) May 13, 2025 'Oh what I do for the crown prince,' Trump said to wrap Blasted NeoCons & Liberal Interventionists 'In the end, the so-called 'nation-builders' wrecked far more nations than they built—and the interventionists were intervening in complex societies they did not understand,' Trump said. 'The gleaming marvels of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi were not created by the so-called nation-builders, neo-cons, or liberal non-profits like those who spent trillions failing to develop Kabul and Baghdad.' 'In Syria, which has seen so much misery and death, there is a new government that we must all hope will succeed in stabilizing the country and keeping peace.' Gaza, Yemen 'The people of Gaza deserve a much better future,' Trump said. 'But that will or cannot occur as long as their leaders choose to kidnap, torture and target innocent men, women and children for political ends.' Trump also proclaimed that he ordered the cessation of US-Houthi hostilities in the Red Sea, after the Pentagon flexed its military might. Trump said to be moments away from speaking live from Riyadh after signing hundreds of billions of dollars in US-Saudi investment deals (watch below). 'U.S. and Saudi Arabia sign largest defense sales agreement in history—nearly $142 billion, part of $600 billion investment package President Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman signed in Riyadh bringing an infusion of cash to the United States,' according to a White House correspondent. 'Today in Saudi Arabia, President Donald J. Trump announced Saudi Arabia's $600-billion commitment to invest in the United States, building economic ties that will endure for generations to come,' a fresh White House fact sheet begins. 'The first deals under the announcement strengthen our energy security, defense industry, technology leadership, and access to global infrastructure and critical minerals.' The following represent just a few of the many transformative deals secured in Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabian DataVolt is moving forward with plans to invest $20 billion in AI data centers and energy infrastructure in the United States. Google, DataVolt, Oracle, Salesforce, AMD, and Uber are committing to invest $80 billion in cutting-edge transformative technologies in both countries. Iconic American companies including Hill International, Jacobs, Parsons, and AECOM are building key infrastructure projects like King Salman International Airport, King Salman Park, The Vault, Qiddiya City, and much more totaling $2 billion in U.S. services exports. Additional major exports include GE Vernova's gas turbines and energy solutions totaling $14.2 billion and Boeing 737-8 passenger aircraft for AviLease totaling $4.8 billion. In the healthcare sector, Shamekh IV Solutions, LLC will be investing $5.8 billion, including a plant in Michigan to launch a high-capacity IV fluid facility. Investment partnerships include several sector-specific funds with a strong emphasis on U.S. deployment—such as the $5 billion Energy Investment Fund, the $5 billion New Era Aerospace and Defense Technology Fund, and the $4 billion Enfield Sports Global Sports Fund—each channeling substantial capital into American industries, driving innovation, and creating high-quality jobs across the United States. If there's one thing that's clear by now, it's that Saudi Arabia and the royal family loves President Donald J. Trump. For example, in an unusual move and break with protocol, it was Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) who rushed to greet Trump the moment the president stepped off Air Force One at the Royal Terminal on Tuesday. The greeting was typically lavish, as Trump was received at the Royal Terminal at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, after which he and MbS walked a lavender carpet and sat down amid marble columns in navy-and-gold armchairs, as the NYT Times detailed. 'Trump lands in Saudi Arabia to a royal welcome from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman,' Al-Monitor journalist Elizabeth Hagedorn pointed out. 'Biden, by contrast, got the governor of Mecca.' As Air Force One entered the kingdom's airspace earlier Tuesday, Saudi fighter jets escorted it while approaching the Saudi capital. Scenes from Saudi Arabia as Trump arrives for negotiations with leaders of the week ahead. — Clandestine (@WarClandestine) May 13, 2025 And later, 'The presidential limousine, nicknamed The Beast, was escorted by riders on Arabian horses as it drove to the royal court,' NYT detailed. Among the first major events includes Trump speaking at an investment forum hosted by the Saudi government. Accompanying him are Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and other top officials. The Beast pulls up to the Saudi Royal Court in Riyadh 🔥 — Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 13, 2025 The investment forum has also seen the Saudi crown prince greet Elon Musk as well as other important tech and silicon valley chief executives, including from BlackRock, Palantir, Nvidia, OpenAI, IMB, CitiBank, and others. ⚡️OpenAI CEO Sam Altman with President Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman inside the Saudi Royal Court. — War Monitor (@WarMonitors) May 13, 2025 Others eyeing potential investments from the Saudis, include billionaire medical entrepreneur Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong, owner of The Los Angeles Times. The president said before cameras upon the start of bilateral talks, 'MBS is a friend, we have a good relationship.' 'I really believe we like each other a lot,' Trump added. Trump is hoping to secure a $1 trillion investment in US industry from the kingdom, significantly over and above the crown prince's earlier investment pledge of $600bn, upon this first stop in his Gulf tour which will later include Qatar and UAE. Importantly, the head of Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, Yasir Al-Rumayyan, was at the airport with MbS for Trump's grand greeting at the VIP Royal Terminal. Trump is more of a Diet Coke drinker, (or perhaps there was a remote fear in his mind of being poisoned?)… U.S. President Donald Trump doesn't drink the local coffee offered to him during his visit to Saudi a spiced Arabic coffee, is a staple of Saudi hospitality. Clash Report (@clashreport) May 13, 2025 President Trump salutes as the Saudis play the American National Anthem… 🚨🇺🇸🇸🇦 Trump salutes as the Saudis play the American National Arabia love Trump it seems. Things are happening quickly. — Concerned Citizen (@BGatesIsaPyscho) May 13, 2025 developing… Also read: Trump's Rift With Bibi Might Be Irreconcilable
The Hindu
24-04-2025
- Business
- The Hindu
Amidst regional ferment, Kurds' quest for statehood
West Asia is in a geo-engineering flux not seen since the birth of Israel 77 years ago. The perennial Palestinian issue is at a pivotal moment with an extreme right Israeli government's hard-line position at odds with the Arab States' insistence on a two-state solution for the Abraham Accords' expansion. After the loss of regional proxies and the resumption of American 'maximum pressure' tactics and military threat, a weakened and isolated Iran has agreed to negotiate its nuclear programme. The toppling of the five decades-old al-Assad regime has created new paradigms. Although Turkey has ambitions to reshape Syria, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is battling an Intefadah at home. The decline of oil prices by a fifth in 2025 may upend the regional economic stability. Amidst this tumult, U.S. President Donald Trump, the global disruptor of 'Gaza Riviera' fame, is set to pay his first visit abroad to the Gulf next month. How does this regional commotion impact a century-old quest by Kurds for statehood? In the past century, two diaspora-based states, viz. Israel and Armenia, have been created in West Asia. Could Kurdistan be the next or, once again, likely to be brushed under the carpet as weightier developments and superpower politics take precedence? Let us examine the prospects in some detail. An unrealised dream Kurds are not only the biggest minority group in West Asia, but they are also the world's largest ethnic minority without a state of their own. Estimates vary, but their total population is put at 35 million-45 million. The overwhelming majority of them live in Turkey (around 17 million, 20% of the total population), Iraq (9 million, 20%), Iran (8 million, 10%), and Syria (2.5 million, 10%). Kurd diaspora exists in Germany (around 1.5 million) and other West European countries. While Kurds have their sub-divisions, their common identity is shaped by a shared history and the craggy geography of Asia Minor. Anthropological studies put them to be of Old Mediterranean and Caucasian stock, distinct from either Turkic, Semitic, or Iranian ethnicities dominating their existence. While most Kurds are Sunni Muslims, they are linked to other regional ethnic minorities, such as Yezidis, Alevi, and Zoroastrianism. The Kurds have a reputation for gritty bravery. Historically, they have often been either exploited as a geopolitical pawn or subject to suppression and exclusion. One of the rare occasions when they led the endgame was in the 12th century when Salahuddin, a Kurd General, commanded the Islamic legion to liberate Jerusalem from crusading Christian armies. The Kurdish quest for a state has remained unrequited. The nearest the Kurds came to realising this ambition was at the Treaty of Sevres in 1920, negotiated to dismantle the Ottoman empire. It promised the Kurds an autonomous state in eastern Turkey. However, the Young Turks under Kemal Ataturk thwarted the Kurdistan Homeland project and instead foisted assertive Turkish nationalism. Since then, Ankara has single-mindedly suppressed the identity of Kurds, who were officially called 'mountain Turks'. This repression has continued: as late as 1994, a Kurdish female MP was sentenced to 15 years in prison for temerity to speak a sentence in Kurdish after her swearing-in about the Kurd-Turk brotherhood. Counterproductive repression Turkish repression has been counterproductive: it led to the formation in 1978 of PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) by Abdullah Öcalan which has waged a campaign for Kurdish independence. Mr. Öcalan was caught in 1999 and is still in solitary confinement in a Turkish jail. Four decades of no-holds-barred conflict has killed an estimated 37,000 people. Following the recent softening of Ankara's policies, Mr. Öcalan has called for the cessation of hostilities and PKK declared a ceasefire on March 15. Turkey has announced a $20 billion socio-economic reconstruction plan for the south-east of the country where most Kurds live but a political package to bring the Kurds to the Turkish mainstream is still awaited. The 13-year civil war provided Syria's Kurds a rare opportunity to fill in the politico-strategic vacuum. With substantive American support, a formidable Kurdish Self Defence Force (SDF) was created to fight the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. SDF currently controls nearly 40% of Syria. This has caused considerable threat perceptions in Ankara which accuses SDF of helping PKK. Turkey has sought to checkmate the SDF by creating exclusion zones and forming a militia against it. However, the US pressure has prevented it from an anti-SDF military campaign. In a potentially far-reaching move on March 11, the SDF Commander and the interim Syrian President signed a basic agreement to integrate the SDF into the new Damascus politico-strategic architecture. Even otherwise, SDF's good fortunes may diminish with the planned attenuation of American military presence in Syria. During Saddam Hussein's rule, Kurds in neighbouring Iraq suffered brutal pogroms, forced deportation and even chemical weapons attacks. However, the situation changed in 1991 after the U.S. Operation Desert Storm substantially weakened Iraqi hold over Kurds and a Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) was formed in 1992. The Constitution of Iraq following the U.S. occupation of the country granted the KRG considerable autonomy although a 2017 referendum on Kurdistan Regional Independence, which received 92% support, was disallowed by the Iraqi Supreme Court stating that no Iraqi province was allowed to secede. Meanwhile, oil-rich KRG has sought to assert its autonomy, often creating a piquant situation with Baghdad authorities. Following an international arbitration ruling, oil exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline have been suspended for the past two years. Turkish armed forces have also been active in hitting alleged PKK targets in KRG. Iran, too, has occasionally attacked the alleged hostile U.S.-Israeli presence in KRG. Thus, although KRG has now been around for over three decades, its existence is still quite tenuous. The situation of Iranian Kurds Compared to repression elsewhere in the region, the Iranian regimes have been marginally benign to its Kurds who mostly live in the northwest of the country along mountainous borders with Turkey and Iraq; some Kurds are also living in the Khorasan province in the northeast. These areas lie along the geo-strategic faultlines, forcing Kurds to choose between loyalty to Tehran, Ankara, or Baghdad. Unlike in other Kurdish-populated countries, there are strong ethnic and cultural ties between Kurds and Persians and some modern Iranian dynasties were partly of Kurdish origin. While Tehran has never employed the same level of brutality against its own Kurds as Turkey or Iraq, it has always been implacably opposed to Kurdish separatism. During the long Persian-Ottoman wars and the recent Iran-Iraq war, largely Sunni Kurds were often suspected of being the fifth column of the foreign powers. Under the Islamic Republic, attempts to Persianise, and general economic deprivation, spurred centrifugal tendencies among Iranian Kurds. With the considerable weakening of the Iranian state and looming prospects of the U.S.-Israel military campaign against Tehran, Iranian Kurds, the country's largest minority, may feel encouraged to secede. Recent weakening of the central authority in each of the aforementioned four countries has brightened the prospects of Kurdish statehood and such proto-states have already emerged in Iraq and Syria. At the same time, they neither have a unifying ideology such as Zionism nor a transnational political entity to dovetail their statehood to the emerging grand Western strategy for West Asia. Their hopes rest on the regional entropy creating a situation conducive to the creation of a Kurdistan. However, even if such a pro-Western surrogate Kurdish state is grafted, it remains to be seen whether it would face autoimmune rejection (as Israel) from regional powers or take deep roots. In short, Kurds' fate currently swings between two of their apt proverbs: 'It is easy to catch a serpent with someone else's hand' and 'Kurds (as a nation) have no friends, except the mountains.' Mahesh Sachdev, Retired Indian Ambassador with an interest in West Asian geopolitics. He is currently the president of Eco-Diplomacy and Strategies, based in New Delhi
