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RXO Q2 2025 truckload market forecast: Inflation continues but at slower pace
RXO Q2 2025 truckload market forecast: Inflation continues but at slower pace

Yahoo

time26-05-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

RXO Q2 2025 truckload market forecast: Inflation continues but at slower pace

RXO recently released its Q2 Truckload Market Forecast, which found that despite economic turmoil, the U.S. truckload space remained relatively calm according to shippers' KPIs. RXO's Curve forecast reported a 9.1% year-over-year increase in spot rates, a slight drop from the 11.6% growth in Q4 2024. Notably, contract rates grew for the first time since late 2022. FreightWaves' Todd Maiden writes, 'A trend – largely in place since 2023 – of soft freight demand, reductions in carrier capacity and stable rates continued in the first quarter.' 'We're as close to equilibrium, in terms of carrier supply and shipper demand, as we've been in over two years,' the update said. 'Relatively speaking, the capacity situation is much more fragile than at this time last year. With a continued difficult landscape for carriers, and (in many cases) decreasing 2025 contract rates setting in, it could set the stage for volatility later in 2025.' Shippers enjoyed a favorable environment in Q1 with high tender acceptance rates and accessible capacity, despite carriers' grappling with higher costs. According to Corey Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement at RXO, the market remained stable throughout the quarter, in line with seasonal expectations. An important Q1 development was the year-over-year growth in contract rates, marking a 1.4% rise from Q1 2024. Typically lagging behind spot rates, these contract rates have finally been lifted out of deflation. RXO analysts argue that the recent drop in inflation does not herald the market's peak. Historical patterns show temporary deviations in market cycles, and typical seasonal trends usually lead to rate retreats post-holidays. Additionally, with operating costs 34% higher than in 2014, significant rate drops remain unlikely. Macroeconomic factors also played a role, with U.S. GDP contracting for the first time since Q1 2022, coupled with trade policy-induced volatility. Import volumes spiked 14.5% in Q1, as shippers preempted new tariffs, but they have begun to decline in Q2. Looking ahead, Q2 is expected to bring typical seasonal volatility due to produce season and Memorial Day influences. However, significant rate increases remain unlikely without sustained higher demand. Supply constraints, particularly from carrier attrition, could cause future inflation. The U.S. Senate voted on Thursday to repeal a waiver granted to California by the Biden administration that required a large part of the trucking industry to achieve zero-carbon emissions by 2035. FreightWaves' John Gallagher writes: 'The nullifications of California's Advanced Clean Truck (ACT) and Low NOx Omnibus rules, accomplished through two Congressional Review Act resolutions, have already been adopted by the House of Representatives. They head to the White House where they are expected to be signed by President Donald Trump.' For the American Trucking Associations, it was a big win. The ATA had argued in a letter to Congress in April that if the California ACT regulation were allowed to move forward, 'Beginning with the 2024 model year, the Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) regulation mandates that manufacturers progressively increase zero emission vehicle (ZEV) sales, aiming for 55% of Class 2b-3 vehicle sales, 75% of Class 4-8 vehicle sales, and 40% of Class 7-8 tractor sales to be ZEVs by the 2035 model year.' In a rare moment of agreement, the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association lauded the move, saying, 'For OOIDA members, vehicle reliability and affordability are critical. It's no wonder small-business truckers have left the state in droves to find better opportunities elsewhere.' This comes as some states are opting for a low-CARB diet, according to a recent article from Fleet Owner. Several states that originally voted to adopt California's Advanced Clean Trucks EV sales mandate are now rolling back or pushing out the enforcement dates. CARB is the environmental regulator California Air Resources Board. Fleet Owner reports Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermont and Oregon pushed back their compliance timelines for ACT by a year or more. For model year 2025, New Jersey, New York and Washington are on track while Colorado, New Mexico and Rhode Island begin enforcement for model year 2027. The post RXO Q2 2025 truckload market forecast: Inflation continues but at slower pace appeared first on FreightWaves.

Senate cancels California's clean-truck waivers
Senate cancels California's clean-truck waivers

Yahoo

time22-05-2025

  • Automotive
  • Yahoo

Senate cancels California's clean-truck waivers

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Senate on Thursday voted to repeal a waiver granted to California by the Biden administration that the trucking industry considered costly electric vehicle mandates by requiring much of the industry to achieve zero-carbon emissions by 2035. The Senate also voted to repeal a waiver that tightens nitrogen oxide (NOx) emission standards for heavy-duty trucks. The nullifications of California's Advanced Clean Truck (ACT) and Low NOx Omnibus rules, accomplished through two Congressional Review Act resolutions, have already been adopted by the House of Representatives. They head to the White House where they are expected to be signed by President Donald Trump. 'The trucking industry is no longer shackled by these unattainable regulatory standards set by unelected officials in California,' Jim Mullen, executive director of the Clean Freight Coalition, which is supported by major trucking fleets, said in an email to FreightWaves. 'To be clear: the trucking industry will continue to pursue an 'all of the above' strategy to reduce commercial vehicle emissions, while at the same time protecting the supply chain and the economy.' The American Trucking Associations called the Senate's repeal of the waivers a 'monumental victory' for the trucking industry. 'We don't need government mandates to tell us how to reduce our environmental impact — we've been doing it for forty years with a record to show, all while moving an ever-increasing percentage of the goods that Americans expect and depend on every day,' said ATA President and CEO Chris Spear in a statement on Thursday. In a letter sent to Congress in April, Spear argued that California's ACT regulation, if allowed to move forward, would have required truck manufacturers to increase zero-emission vehicle sales to 40% of the Class 7-8 fleet by the 2035 model year and would have 'put enormous inflationary pressure on the economy.' It has already been adopted by other states, he noted, 'causing equipment costs to skyrocket for trucking companies, combined with a severe shortage of new and available clean-diesel equipment.' Spear also noted that the resolutions passed by Congress 'will not only restore EPA's role as the primary authority empowered to establish achievable, nationwide emissions standards, but will also block California from issuing similar regulations in the future.' Calstart, a nonprofit organization that works with the transportation industry to cut air pollution, called the votes a 'massive handout' to the trucking lobby. 'This move concedes the industries of the future to global competitors, will increase air pollution, accelerate global warming and result in significant job loss,' said Calstart President John Boesel in a press statement. 'It is a brazen, yet futile, attempt to bring the clean transportation industry to a sudden halt. Calstart will continue to partner with the states working to fill this gaping void left by today's federal action.' Clash on legal status of California transportation waivers highlighted at TCA EPA announces rollback of Biden-Harris emissions rules Speculation abounds on California trucking regulation with no ACF Click for more FreightWaves articles by John Gallagher. The post Senate cancels California's clean-truck waivers appeared first on FreightWaves.

How Trump might topple California's clean truck experiment
How Trump might topple California's clean truck experiment

Politico

time12-02-2025

  • Automotive
  • Politico

How Trump might topple California's clean truck experiment

With help from Camille von Kaenel and Alex Nieves KEEP ON TRUCKIN': California's prospects for shifting the world to electric trucks just got a lot bleaker under President Donald Trump. State officials are facing the loss of substantial chunks of federal incentives plus their ability to make companies buy zero-emission trucks. It's casting a serious pall over California's ambitions. 'There is a lot of uncertainty out there, there's frustration, there's even fear, even on a happy day like today,' California Air Resources Board member Gideon Kracov said at the opening of a new electric truck charging station at the Port of Long Beach. That was two days after Trump's inauguration-day order to pause the disbursement of Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law funds, and a week after California withdrew its request for a federal waiver to implement its clean truck purchasing mandate, citing Trump's opposition and the fact that President Joe Biden's Environmental Protection Agency ran out of time to act on the rule. The loss of the carrots is bad enough, but losing the main stick could prove insurmountable. 'Without the mandate, I don't see the industry changing,' said Rudy Diaz, owner of a 70-truck fleet, 20 of which are electric, in Long Beach. 'It typically takes mandates to force people to do things, and now that this mandate is off, I'm very concerned that it's going to keep business as usual.' Trucks are an outsize source of pollution for California and one of the thorniest pieces of the state's grand experiment to show the world what a net-zero economy looks like. Ten other states follow California's nation-leading zero-emissions truck sales mandate to phase out around half of diesel truck sales by 2036. But in contrast to passenger vehicles, where a robust market for electric cars already exists, California's market for electric trucks is just in its infancy, and more vulnerable to federal threats. California officials under Trump are facing not just a loss of their ability to enforce their rules — they also may be losing the money they need to bring companies and drivers along as Trump attempts to block climate and infrastructure spending despite court orders not to. State officials are sounding a confident note and pointing to their remaining regulatory and financial tools. Those include the $130 million raised annually through the state's Carl Moyer Program fees, $48 million for port trucks from greenhouse gas auction proceeds proposed in this year's state budget and a state transportation fuels emission trading program recently reworked to direct more money to medium and heavy-duty charging. There are also other sticks, like the South Coast Air Quality Management District's indirect source rule that fines diesel trucks entering warehouses and state truck pollution standards that don't require zero-emissions but nudge in that direction. And while Trump could try to go after the state's Advanced Clean Truck sales mandate, major truck and engine manufacturers made a deal with the state in 2023 to abide by it no matter what happens with Trump or the courts. 'Obviously having those federal funds could expedite things and make things easier, but our commitment predates anything at the federal level,' said CARB board member and former state Assemblymember Hector De La Torre. 'There is still a substantial, robust regulatory and incentive structure for this transition.' Still, he said the state will have to adapt in order to reach its goal of 100 percent zero-emissions trucks at the ports by 2035. Under the Advanced Clean Fleets purchasing mandate the state withdrew last month, companies were supposed to stop registering new diesel trucks with the ports as of Jan. 1, 2024. But while CARB delayed enforcement over the past year, operators registered 2,497 new diesel trucks at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. 'We just need to think about what the next steps are going to be,' CARB Chair Liane Randolph said last week at a conference in San Francisco, when asked how the state would move ahead in the absence of the Advanced Clean Fleets rule. — BB Did someone forward you this newsletter? Sign up here! CLIMATE BILL COME DUE: It's official: California's insurer of last-resort announced today it's sending the bill for part of its costs from the Los Angeles fires last month to all property insurers in the state, who are now allowed to pass along those costs to their customers for the first time. Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara approved the FAIR Plan's request to assess its member companies for a total of $1 billion to help pay out its claims from the Palisades, Eaton and Hurst fires. The FAIR Plan has estimated its total losses from the fires at approximately $4 billion, which surpasses its cash reserves and payments available through reinsurance. Each company must now pay up based on its market share and could ask Lara to pass the cost on to customers, under an executive order he issued last year to convince property insurers to remain in the state. — CvK NOT JUST TRUCKS: The Trump administration's move to suspend federal EV charger funding is another source of chaos at state agencies around the country, but California — at least for the moment — is chugging forward. While states like Vermont and Colorado have suspended or slowed down their charger construction under the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure program, a $5 billion formula program created through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act that Biden signed in 2021, the California Energy Commission says its efforts 'remain fully operational,' POLITICO's James Bikales reports. 'For now, federal courts have prohibited federal agencies from pausing or terminating payment of federal financial assistance funds unless authorized by the applicable authorizing statutes, regulations, and terms,' CEC spokesperson Harrison Reilly said in a statement. California and 21 other states on Friday filed for a preliminary injunction to enforce a court ordered halt on the Trump administration's federal funding freeze, alleging the administration is continuing to block access to funding for state climate programs. CEC has awarded around $32 million in NEVI funds so far, dollars that should be harder to claw back as Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has said obligated awards will still be funded. That, however, leaves $352 million in future expected awards in limbo. California, which has aggressively invested in EV charging infrastructure, is uniquely positioned to withstand a loss of federal funds. State officials approved a plan last year to spend $1.4 billion over four years on zero-emission infrastructure of light- and heavy-duty vehicles. But the loss of NEVI funding would still be a blow for efforts to expand charging in rural areas along highways where private manufacturers may not have incentive to build. 'These are less compelling for charging providers because they are built for access and not to make money,' said Alan Jenn, an assistant professor at UC Davis who studies electric vehicles. 'Those are the ones that are going to suffer with the NEVI program.' — AN CONFORM ALREADY: Renewable energy developers are trying again to change California's tax code so they don't have to pay taxes on their Inflation Reduction Act dollars, even as Trump tries to roll those dollars back. Sen. Steve Padilla reintroduced his legislation on Monday to bring California in line with the 45 other states that don't tax the revenue from sales of environmental credits from the Inflation Reduction Act. The change would be retroactive to the 2023 and 2024 tax years, meaning it would apply to developers regardless of what happens to federal spending under Trump. The legislation, SB 302, includes as co-authors the respective chairs of each chamber's energy committee, Sen. Josh Becker and Assemblymember Cottie Petrie-Norris, giving it a little more weight than a version last year, SB 1191, that got held in the Senate Appropriations Committee after the state's Franchise Tax Board estimated it could cost California's general fund $250 million a year. — CvK BURNING CASH: Treating 30.7 million acres of California's fire-prone lands with prescribed fire and mechanical thinning would cost $16.8 billion, according to a new working paper from Resources for the Future, far beyond current state and federal funding levels. That number represents a reach goal. Treating only the 17 million acres at the highest wildfire hazard would cost $9.7 billion, and treating the 8.7 million acres at the highest wildfire hazard and also near populated communities would amount to $5 billion. Per the study, the federal and state governments are on track to meet that $5 billion over the next ten years — if they both match California's current rate of spending of $275 million per year. Another interesting finding: Mechanical thinning, most commonly used in steeper and high-elevation areas, costs roughly $577 per acre. Prescribed burns, more used in flat areas away from populations, costs $170 per acre. — CvK THE FOREST GURUS: Natural Resources Secretary Wade Crowfoot and Environmental Protection Secretary Yana Garcia spoke about wildfire and forest health at Tuesday's annual conference of Cal Forests, the forest products trade group, in downtown Sacramento. Crowfoot, fresh off his trip to D.C. last week with Gov. Gavin Newsom, appealed to the loggers in the audience to ally with both the state and federal governments to push for more streamlined forest management in the name of wildfire prevention. 'No doubt there are political differences between our leaders in some areas, but we don't think this topic is one of those areas,' Crowfoot said. 'From my vantage point, there is more overlap in terms of the ultimate goal on this issue than many others, and there is tremendous opportunity to actually partner, and so we need your help in that.' Assemblymembers Isaac Bryan, Cottie Petrie-Norris, Chris Rogers, David Tangipa and Gail Pellerin also got a panel. Other VIPs spotted include Cal Fire chief Joe Tyler, U.S. Forest Service deputy regional forester Kara Chadwick and timber executives Mark Emmerson, chair and CFO of Sierra Pacific Industries; Joe Burch, president of Redwood Empire; and Pete Jackson, vice president of Green Diamond Resource Company. — CvK AND THE ENERGY GURUS: State Sens. Scott Wiener and Jerry McNerney and Assemblymember John Harabedian mingled Monday night at a reception hosted by American Clean Power-California at the California Museum. Assemblymembers Mike Gipson and Cottie Petrie-Norris also stopped by the California Solar Symposium, hosted by the same trade group at the Secretary of State building. — Trump's administration has frozen more than $1 billion in U.S. EPA funds for California's transition off fossil fuels. — People who experienced severe wildfire smoke are more likely, not less, to support the use of prescribed burns, according to a new study by SoCal researchers. — The year's strongest storm yet is forecast to hit Los Angeles on Thursday, raising the risk of debris flows in areas recently burned by fires.

Love's in California: Gauging impact of Advanced Clean Fleets rule demise
Love's in California: Gauging impact of Advanced Clean Fleets rule demise

Yahoo

time29-01-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Love's in California: Gauging impact of Advanced Clean Fleets rule demise

When Love's Travel Stops announced a new location in Bakersfield, California in August, it was not only a new travel stop in its network. It added 111 parking spots and was described as one of the biggest outlets in the Love's network. But it also raised a question: why build a travel stop that dispenses diesel fuel as a major part of its business in a state that had a pair of regulations in place, the Advanced Clean Truck (ACT) rule and the Advanced Clean Fleet (ACF) rule, that were designed to mostly eliminate diesel use in more than 20 years? That question is now moot, at least for now, with the recent decision by the California Air Resources Board to withdraw its request for a waiver from the Environmental Protection Agency that would have cleared the decks for the ACF to proceed. The ACT is still in place, but its effectiveness has been brought into question given that the ACT's mandate for truck suppliers to sell zero emission vehicles into California may run up against the fact that there is, for now, no mandate to buy them. In what is becoming an annual discussion with the media about the company's plans for the coming year, Love's President Shane Wharton said the company is still reviewing the demise of the ACF and its impact on its customers. But he also indicated that the ACF was not a factor in deciding to build a big new travel center in Bakersfield. 'The way we look at it is we're in the highway hospitality business,' Wharton said. 'We're in the business of taking care of customers on the road. So we know what the customers are using (for fuel) today, and we know what they will be transitioning to, whether it's an electric vehicle or hydrogen. So it's a combination of being ready for that. And whatever our customer needs, we have always said, that's our business.' Wharton said Love's will 'continue to build in the right places to be' and will be ready to transition on the fuel side when that need occurs. Love's actually has a hydrogen subsidiary: Trillium. Trillium has hydrogen fueling facilities at four Love's facilities in California and one near Urbana, Illinois. Trillium is not operating any public fueling stations; all the customers are private. Its experience with hydrogen through Trillium is part of what Wharton said is 'just having to be prepared to provide the products and services our customers need.' Wharton's presentation is an opportunity for it to lay out the company's new construction plans as well. Love's is planning on opening 20 new stores in 2025 and will begin updating 50 existing outlets under what it calls its Strategic Remodel Initiative. The SRI involves extensive remodeling, not just on the margins. The pace of new construction and remodeling means Love's is on track to have what amounts to new or redesigned facilities at more than half its 655 outlets by 2035. Love's truck parking is free. Wharton said the company plans to add about 1,000 new parking spaces this year, in line with what the company projects most years. Wharton, asked about how much of that parking capacity is utilized each day, said Love's does not have a direct technology tracker of its parking spot to know how many are occupied at any given time, but that the company has 'explored and talked about some technology solutions that would track that and report it out.' But he said on an average evening, all of those spots that are now approaching 50,000 through the network are being utilized. 'Days of the week can matter but not dramatically, because the truck traffic is so heavy,' Wharton said. When Wharton was asked about acquisition activity, he gave a standard response of 'we're always looking at opportunities to build our travel stop network.' But when he got specific, he turned to factoring as a likely area of growth. Love's did make one factoring acquisition in 2024: REV Capital. Wharton made clear they are looking to build that factoring group at Love's. 'Our freight factoring business is something that we've been aggressively growing,' Wharton said. 'We did an acquisition in 2024 to add to that book of business and we think there could be some opportunities in 2025 in that space.' Among other developments at Love's discussed by Wharton: The company is a sponsor of the NBA's Oklahoma City Thunder, located in the same city where Love's is headquartered. A Love's patch is visible on all the jerseys of the Thunder players. 'It's turned into a pretty decent recruiting tool in terms of people noticing it and the size and scale of the presence that we have here in Oklahoma City,' Wharton said. But the Love's sponsorship also helps give the company exposure when the Thunder games are broadcast elsewhere, which they are increasing this year; at this writing, the Thunder have the best record in the NBA. It won't help fuel any class 8 trucks, but Wharton and a company news release said Love's received a grant of $83 million to build chargers in 13 states. Fast charger construction is expected to start this year in eight states. Love's hired 250 veterans last year, and will try to increase that by 10% this year. 'We've also launched a hire program for military spouses, so we have our talent acquisition team that's out attending recruiting events across the country to help us attract and get the right talent on the team,' Wharton said. More articles by John Kingston Western Express prevails at federal appeals level in 'wall of water' case ATA saw as important Drivers settle class action with Lytx over in-cab surveillance, data gathering Connectivity, generative AI's impact key supply chain software themes at NRF '25 The post Love's in California: Gauging impact of Advanced Clean Fleets rule demise appeared first on FreightWaves.

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