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Dorcha Lee: Benjamin Netanyahu still stalling on US-brokered ceasefire deal in Gaza
Without a ceasefire in Gaza, the killings continue.
A new feature in the carnage is the large number of men being gunned down while converging on humanitarian aid sites.
Poorly-trained Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reservists feel threatened and open fire, often in panic.
It is not necessarily indiscriminate, but crowd control should follow the minimum force rule.
Last weekend, on one day alone, 51 died at, or approaching, aid centres.
In the meantime, the main IDF units are halfway through their two-month operation to occupy 75% of Gaza.
Yesterday, the IDF's 162nd division entered the Jabalia area of northern Gaza.
Only a ceasefire will stop this operation.
For the third time, prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has frustrated a US-brokered ceasefire deal in Gaza.
The first US-brokered agreement, in conjunction with Egypt and Qatar, was presented by the Biden administration in May of last year.
It collapsed in August when Netanyahu added five pre-conditions.
The second proposed agreement was worked on by officials of both the Biden and Trump administrations.
It was more successful. It came into effect on January 18, but ended when Israel refused to move to phase two, on March 1, as agreed.
The third US-brokered agreement, presented by US special envoy Steve Witkoff, was pre-approved by Netanyahu four weeks ago.
Hamas proposed changes, all of which could be considered as negotiable.
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, right, steps out from his plane as he arrives at Muscat, Oman, prior to negotiations with US Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff. Picture: Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP
The central difference between the Israeli and Hamas positions, in all three agreements, revolves around the duration of the ceasefire.
Hamas wants Israel to commit to a permanent ceasefire.
Israel wants a time limit, leaving open the door to resuming hostilities should Hamas renege on the deal.
Only with a cast-iron commitment to a permanent ceasefire can Hamas feel secure that the Israelis won't wipe it out.
Agreeing to a permanent ceasefire in advance heavily compromises the Israeli objective of destroying Hamas.
The 13-point Witkoff proposal is entitled Framework for negotiating an Agreement to a Permanent Ceasefire.
It proposes a 60-day ceasefire, with Israel's adherence guaranteed by US president Donald Trump.
Hamas's latest proposal is that the ceasefire would last seven years. This is a non-runner.
However, it is a concession, in principle, from their previous position on a permanent ceasefire.
The second point of the framework was that 10 live Israeli hostages and 18 deceased hostages would be released in two batches, half on day one of the ceasefire and the other half on day seven.
The Hamas-proposed change is that the release of the hostages would be phased over the two-month period.
The third point of the framework dealt with humanitarian assistance, which would begin immediately and would be distributed through agreed channels such as the UN and the Red Crescent.
The fourth and fifth points cover IDF military activities and redeployment.
The Hamas-proposed changes included these three framework points, plus US guarantees.
It appears that Trump expected immediate agreement to the framework and was impatiently waiting to announce the agreement in Washington.
Hamas's proposed changes were in the context that the framework was still negotiable.
Two days later, Witkoff belatedly confirmed that he had intended the framework to be just the starting point of the next round of discussion.
In the remaining eight points, there are safeguards built in to facilitate movement towards a permanent ceasefire.
These safeguards are sufficiently nuanced to facilitate discussion.
Since then, a wall of silence encircled the talks in Doha.
Then, the week before last, the leak came — this time from Washington — when sources close to the US administration revealed Trump's frustration with Netanyahu.
White House special envoy Steve Witkoff and US president Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. Picture: Evan Vucci/AP
Netanyahu now insisted that Israel would not agree to a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, thus back tracking on his prior acceptance of proposal's text.
However, it has long been clear that the IDF military strategy of mainly using air power to take out Hamas targets has failed.
Standard military doctrine — fighting in built up areas — would require a sustained ground offensive to engage with the enemy including, in this case, close quarter combat in the tunnels.
Ground once captured must to be held, or at least denied to the enemy.
The IDF offensive in Gaza is moving forward slowly.
This time, the tunnels are being destroyed systematically.
Hamas is striking back with improvised explosives devices (IEDs) and booby traps.
The IDF lost six soldiers killed in one booby-trapped building that collapsed, and several vehicles have been hit by IEDs.
The source of the explosives is apparently the numerous unexploded shells scattered around the bombed-out building sites.
From the very beginning, the Israeli political leadership did not clarify which objective was the priority objective: The destruction of Hamas or the freeing of the hostages.
Only last month did the government confirm that the priority was the destruction of Hamas.
This means, at face value, that the IDF can now proceed to destroy Hamas without undue consideration for the lives of the remaining hostages.
However, this may have been a ploy to persuade Hamas that holding hostages no longer offers the same protection, as before, to their fighters in the tunnels.
But time is no longer on Netanyahu's side.
Time is no longer on Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyah's side. Picture: Abir Sultan/AP
There are two indicators that morale is slipping in the IDF.
First, the IDF chief of staff, Lieutenant general Eyal Zamir, admitted that the number of IDF casualties is much greater than previously stated.
In particular, the number of wounded IDF personnel since the ground operation began on October 27, 2023, is reportedly 12,600 and not 5,500 as previously stated.
Each month, 1,000 serving soldiers are currently being referred to the Israeli ministry of defence's rehabilitation department.
Secondly, retired Israeli air force personnel have gathered 15,000 signatures from veterans calling for an end to the war.
As most of the more than 54,000 Gazans confirmed killed to date died in airstrikes, there must be a lot of IDF air crews psychologically affected by having to kill so many innocent and unarmed men, women, and children.
US and Israel want to move the remaining (estimated) 2.14m Gazans out of the area, so that the US can build a tourist resort.
The latest proposed destinations for the Gazan population includes Libya, where the US is reportedly planning to resettle 1m Gazans.
Libya has denied the report.
Egypt has produced a more realistic plan which would allow the resident population to be temporarily housed in Gaza, while reconstruction takes place.
It has backing from Arab and some European countries, but has not yet been accepted by Israel and the US.
In the past, temporary relocations of displaced Palestinians have proved to be permanent. Promises that, if they leave Gaza, they will be allowed to return after the reconstruction, will not be believed. They heard it all before in 1948, in 1956, in 1967, and in 1973.
Gazans well know that if they leave, they may never return.
The Witkoff proposal still offers the best chance, so far, of achieving a long-lasting ceasefire in Gaza.
Dorcha Lee is a retired army colonel and defence analyst
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