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IOL News
4 days ago
- Business
- IOL News
What do agriculture experts predict for South Africa's GDP growth in 2025?
There have been mixed reactions from the Agriculture sector and economists on expectations for Tuesday's announcement of the GDP growth for the first quarter of 2025. There have been mixed reactions from the agriculture sector and economists on expectations for Tuesday's announcement of the GDP growth for the first quarter of 2025. Wandile Sihlobo, the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), said, 'One sector that some may be observing is the performance of agriculture, which last year was a significant drag on the economy. The mid-summer drought, delays in harvesting deliveries, and animal diseases were some of the challenges we encountered in 2024.' This year, the conversation should shift somewhat and become more upbeat. 'We have an excellent summer grains and oilseeds season, with the latest production forecasts by the Crop Estimates Committee suggesting a harvest of 17.98 million tonnes, up by 16% from the 2023-24 drought season. Favourable rains and decent area plantings support this,' he said. Sihlobo said South African sugar production for the 2024-25 production season is forecast to recover by 7% year-on-year to 2.09 million tonnes. 'This is also due to favourable weather conditions and the availability of sufficient water for irrigation. We have also received encouraging production data from SA Wine and Vinpro, forecasting South Africa's wine grape harvest at 1.244 million tonnes, an 11% recovery from the exceptionally poor harvest of 2024. We also see encouraging production data from citrus, various fruits, and vegetables. In poultry production, the moderating prices of maize and soybeans should help the industry in its ongoing recovery.' Sihlobo said the one area that remains a concern is the livestock industry, primarily due to the recent outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. 'We have already seen various trading partners temporarily banning South Africa's beef exports due to the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. Given the sizable share contribution of the livestock industry to South Africa's agricultural gross value added, its challenges are something worth reflecting on when considering South African agricultural performance.' Francois Rossouw, the CEO of Southern African Agri Initiative (Saai), said the sector is certainly in a recovery period after the excessive rain the country had. 'It was positive to see a healthy jump in our exports in the first quarter of the year, helped a bit by things running smoother at the ports. However, there are big external challenges ahead, especially when it comes to securing good access to important markets like the US and navigating hurdles in promising places like China. So, while there's some positive momentum, the outlook is definitely shaped by these significant trade issues that need sorting out.' Investec economist, Lara Hodes, said that they expect a weak quarter one 2025 reading, following quarter four 2024's 0.6% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted lift, with incoming data readings for the quarter unfavourable. Specifically, industrial production (mining, manufacturing and electricity), which makes up a substantial 19.5% of GDP, declined by -2.9% qqsa in the first quarter, while the trade sector, which makes up around a further 12.5% of GDP, disappointed, she said. Hodes said the outlook is reflective of a still subdued economy, which continues to face a number of challenges, notably on the logistics front. 'Business Confidence is likely to have remained in contractionary territory at around 47, from 45 logged in Q4.24 and Q3.24 respectively. While political uncertainty has eased to an extent and the GNU is expected to endure, domestic growth remains lacklustre while global uncertainty remains elevated, with the tariff situation fluid.' Johann Els, Old Mutual Group Chief economist, said that given the performance of high-frequency data, he expects GDP growth to be negative. 'I project GDP to be - 0.1% in the first quarter of 2025. This compares to a +0.6% growth in the last quarter of 2024. The reason for the negative projection is the severe production performance in the mining and manufacturing sectors. Mining production, with a weight of 4.8% into the economy, was down more than 16% on an annual basis quarter-on-quarter, and similarly, manufacturing production at a bigger weight of 12.5% of the economy was down 9% on an annual basis quarter-on-quarter.' TLU SA general manager, Bennie van Zyl, said that there are so many interchangeables in the Agriculture sector that it is difficult to compare one year to next year. 'This is due to us having late rain, but it could still result in a good harvest. There are also farmers that haven't harvested yield yet due to the late rains. We also have farmers who are not able to sell cattle due to foot-and-mouth disease, so we have to wait and see. I'm cautious to make a prediction on the sector GDP growth.' BUSINESS REPORT Visit:
IOL News
26-05-2025
- Business
- IOL News
How South Africa's agricultural sector is strengthening trade relations with the EU
Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) believes that Deputy President Paul Mashatile's recent visit to France is good news for trade relations for the European Union (EU) and South Africa's agricultural sector. Image: Karen Sandison/ Independent Newspapers Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) believes that Deputy President Paul Mashatile's recent visit to France is good news for trade relations for the European Union (EU) and South Africa's agricultural sector. Farming associations in the agricultural sector also welcomed the news. Wandile Sihlobo, Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, said on Monday that last week South Africa's Deputy President, Paul Mashatile was in France to promote economic cooperation , amongst other things, between the countries. 'Mashatile's visit did not receive much attention as the developments of the Oval Office continued to be the primary focus. But at its core, the work he was doing in France, and by extension, the greater EU, is aligned with the US visit by the South African President, Cyril Ramaphosa, to seek to strengthen relations, attract investment and deepen trade.' Sihlobo said the EU is one of South Africa's important trading partners. 'If we focus on agriculture and assess the EU's participation, it is very encouraging. In the $13.7 billion (R274bn) of South Africa's agricultural exports in 2024, the EU accounted for 19% and was the third-largest agricultural trading partner after the African continent and the collective Asia and the Middle East regions.' Citrus, grapes, wines, dates, avocados, pineapples, fruit juices, apples and pears, berries, apricots and cherries, nuts, and wool were amongst the top agricultural products South Africa exported to the EU in 2024. 'The South African agricultural sector has faced various challenges in the EU market, particularly in citrus. For example, the EU recently used non-tariff barriers by alleging a 'False codling moth', a citrus pest, in South Africa and requiring citrus products to be kept at certain temperatures before accessing the EU market,' he said. Sihlobo added that this issue happened while South Africa had already treated the products to eliminate the chances of such a pest occurrence. 'In a way, one could argue that this was a subtle form of protecting Spanish farmers, who are also major citrus producers within the EU market. Still, this does not change the fact that many agricultural value chains in South Africa have prospered over the years, leaning on the EU market. Importantly, as in the past, we all want to resolve citrus friction and for the countries to affirm a long-term better trading environment for all products.' Sihlobo said while South Africa works to resolve and deepen trade with regions such as the US, where there are higher tariffs, and China, a vital market, but with higher tariffs and phytosanitary barriers, we must not overlook the existing markets that have contributed to our prosperity. 'We should continually engage with the EU, UK, Middle East, and the greater African continent to deepen relations, trade and investment. The continuous conversation about agricultural export diversification within BRICS nations, such as China, India, and Saudi Arabia, is not a replacement for the long-existing relations with the EU and other trading partners.' TLU SA general manager, Bennie van Zyl, said that the association believes that South Africa should keep the country's existing markets intact. 'It is important as we do have the infrastructure to keep our existing markets. However, we believe that it is good news to develop new markets. The export market is very important. It allows us to increase our yield and production. This brings financial value into the fiscus. So it's always good news when there are new markets for export.'
IOL News
25-05-2025
- Politics
- IOL News
Police Minister Mchunu clarifies rural safety strategy while addressing crime statistics
Minister of Police Senzo Mchunu said on Friday that there is no genocide against white farmers Image: GCIS Minister of Police Senzo Mchunu on Friday firmly rejected claims of a genocide against white farmers in South Africa. This comes as crime statistics from the fourth quarter of the 2024/2025 financial year, covering the period from 1 January 2025 to 31 March 2025, indicated six farm-related attacks with attacks not being on race. Mchunu said that the National Rural Safety Strategy was designed to create a safe and secure environment in rural areas. 'In the fourth quarter, six attacks on rural communities were recorded. We do not categorise people by race, but in the context of claims of 'genocide of White people', we need to unpack the killings in this category. 'The two farm owners that were murdered during the fourth quarter were African and not White. Further to that, the two farm employees and one farm manager were also African – it is the one farm dweller that was White. 'The history of farm murders in the country has always been distorted and reported in an unbalanced way; the truth is that farm murders have always included African people in more numbers.' Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Mchunu added that the government wanted to reject the notion of 'land grabbing' in the country. Instead, he confirmed that there were cases of land invasions, but said the two were very different. 'Land invasions are not government policy, but are by and large, acts of desperation for land by African people who find themselves landless and in need to settle. It is sporadic and it remains unlawful,' he said. Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), said that the South African farming sector or farming community was not under siege. 'The country has devastating crime incidents, which should remain a major worry for all,' he said. 'However, it is necessary to state that there is no land expropriation without compensation in the country, that the recent Expropriation Act has been massively misrepresented, and that property rights remain intact. Land Reform is still under the market principles of the willing buyer-willing seller.' Jaco Minnaar, president of Agri SA, said it was good that Mchunu reverted to the National Rural Safety Strategy, which was developed with farmers. 'The problem is the implementation, which is not currently on track, as well as the lack of necessary resources allocated to it,' he said. 'AgriSA and other role players are in the process to address this with the minister and SAPS, and hope with the spotlight now on it, we will make progress. We are glad that our government realised it as a big concern, together with crime as a whole in SA, and we will assist as far as possible to help address the issue.' Francois Rossouw, CEO of Southern African Agri Initiative (Saai), welcomed Mchunu's recognition of farm attacks in the official crime statistics. 'However, the figure of only six attacks for the quarter must be viewed with caution. Many rural crimes go unreported, under-recorded, or misclassified due to inconsistent definitions and weak rural policing infrastructure,' he said. 'We take note of the Minister's distinction between land invasions and land grabs, but in practice, the line between the two is increasingly blurred. The lack of consequences for illegal land occupations and weak enforcement emboldens those who target farms. That alone undermines confidence in the government's commitment to the rule of law in rural areas.' Visit:
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
South Africans dispute claims of genocide against white farmers in their country
A day after 59 white South Africans were welcomed to America as refugees, more than 86,000 South African farmers — who are mostly white — are gathering this week at the NAMPO Harvest Day trade fair, an annual agricultural exhibition considered the largest in the Southern Hemisphere. Over four days, the attendees will discuss innovations in technology, collaborations and various other elements of an industry that last year generated nearly $14 billion in revenue. Notably, according to one participant, there is no planned discussion of violence against white farmers or 'Afrikaner refugees escaping government-sponsored, race-based discrimination, including racially discriminatory property confiscation' without compensation, as President Donald Trump wrote in a Feb. 7 executive order that opened the way for the 59 South Africans to come to U.S., despite a ban on refugees from other nations. The executive order referenced South Africa's Expropriation Act enacted last year, which in some cases allows the government to seize unused land without compensation, something Cyril Ramaphosa, the country's president, said has not happened. The act awakened a profoundly troubling argument over land rights. South Africa's dark history of racism includes the confiscation of land from Black residents, both before and during the apartheid. Afrikaners, the minority white descendants of Dutch and French settlers who arrived in South Africa in the 1600s, were leaders of the apartheid regime that ended in 1994. The purported goal of the Expropriation Act is to shrink the vast land ownership disparity that came with the oppressive rule. According to the organization Action for Southern Africa, 72% of farms and agricultural holdings are owned by whites, who make up 7.3% of the population. Black Africans, representing 81.4%, own only 4% of the land. Trump asserted on Monday, ahead of the refugees' arrival in the U.S., that 'white farmers are being brutally killed and the land is being confiscated in South Africa.' Yet Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, said that the spirit of NAMPO this week reaffirms that 'genocide' of white South African farmers 'was imaginary and not happening in our country.' 'We're all disturbed that the U.S. side is alleging that there's genocide and mistreatment of white farmers in South Africa. It is incorrect,' said Sihlobo, who is also co-author of the book 'The Uncomfortable Truth About South Africa's Agriculture.' 'If anything, the sector continues to flourish. [Trump's] comments are misinformed and not mirroring the reality on the ground in the country,' he said. The New York Times reported 225 people were killed on South African farms over a four-year period ending in 2024. Of those deaths, 101 were Black current or former workers living on farms, and 53 were farmers, who are usually white. Nico Harris, a farmer of Afrikaans heritage, told Daily Maverick South African newspaper that the problems he sees can be overcome and stem from the government not being 'pro-farmer.' 'I think the refugees that have gone [to the U.S.] are not well-established family farming businesses like we are,' Harris told the paper. 'I think they don't have an opportunity in the country and they might think that, 'This is an opportunity for us.' I don't think they're really fleeing because they are scared or worried, I think they see it as an opportunity.' Harris added, 'I think there are racially discriminating laws against white farmers, and I think they have problems and haven't got sympathy from the government. But there are no real land grabs, and I don't think there are real threats. There are individual farm attacks, but it's more related to criminal activity. We just hope our government is going to wake up and realize that they need the farmers, Black and white.' One of the South Africans who arrived in the U.S. on Monday told The Washington Post that she had been advised not to speak with the media and said it had been a 'very emotional, very rough couple of weeks.' Theo Boshoff, CEO of AgBiz, which represents companies across the agricultural value chain, including South African and multinational companies, said crime in rural farming areas is high but 'not targeted against any racial or ethnic group.' 'There is no genocide in South Africa,' Boshoff added. 'People who live in rural areas, who are often farmers, are simply more vulnerable to crime and violent crime because they live in remote areas.' And because they are remote, law enforcement often is not nearby to protect them. 'There is no cultural or racial bias at play. White farmers, Black farmers, white farmworkers, Black farmworkers are all equally at risk and united in combatting this challenge,' he said. 'I also don't agree with insinuations that rural crime is motivated by politics or in any way related to South Africa's affirmative action efforts to remedy our checkered past.' Solidarity, a South African trade union that represents 600,000 Afrikaner families, said in a statement in February that it does not agree with the African National Congress, which wants to close the farmland disparity gap. 'But we love our country. As in any community, there are individuals who wish to immigrate, but repatriation of Afrikaners as refugees is not a solution for us,' the group wrote. President Ramaphosa said on X that the country's laws 'balance the need for public usage of land and the protection of rights of property owners.' He said that a meeting with President Trump about the country's land reform policy would result in them sharing 'a better and common understanding over these matters.' Trump adviser Elon Musk, who was born in South Africa, has talked of his home country having 'racist ownership laws' in a genocidal effort against white farmers. Fadial Adams, a member of the National Assembly of South Africa, a political body that passes legislation and analyzes executive action, warned of Musk's influence on the president. 'Let us not forget that Elon Musk is a beneficiary of our suffering and our slavery in South Africa, and it is not something that he hides. He was raised on a system which benefited white South Africans exclusively,' Adams said. 'Elon Musk should stop acting like the minister for foreign affairs for South Africa. He's not.' The Trump administration and Musk representative did not respond to a request for comment. Afriforum, a nongovernmental South African agency that supports the interests of white citizens, have called for farm murders to be classified as priority crimes requiring special attention, like gender-based violence or rhino-poaching. It does not support the Expropriation Act. 'Many laws identified by the Afrikaner lobby groups as racist are viewed by the African National Congress as being necessary, intentional measures to redress past wrongs,' said Thula Simpson, an associate professor of history at the University of Pretoria in South Africa. 'So the present developments strike at the heart of the post-apartheid consensus.' As for the farmers in South Africa as a whole, Sihlobo, the economist from the Agricultural Business Chamber, pointed at how the country's earnings from exporting produce have grown from $2 billion in the year 2000 to nearly $14 billion in 2024. 'We're self-sufficient,' Sihlobo said. 'That speaks to the progress the sector has been making. You can't see numbers like that where there's a genocide.' Jaco Minnaar, the chairman of AGRI SA, the largest agriculture organization in South Africa, says the larger problem is South Africa's crime rate. 'We can see that farm murders in South Africa have a slightly higher rate per capita than murders in general, but it's farmers and farmworkers, which is not all necessarily white,' Minnaar said. 'Our murder rate is one of the highest per capita in the world, even higher than some of the war-torn countries. That's something that we need to address,' he said. 'But we can't specifically see from the statistics that white people or any other demographic group are targeted. Or that there's a genocide.' This article was originally published on
NBC News
15-05-2025
- Politics
- NBC News
South Africans dispute claims of genocide against white farmers in their country
A day after 59 white South Africans were welcomed to America as refugees, more than 86,000 South African farmers — who are mostly white — are gathering this week at the NAMPO Harvest Day trade fair, an annual agricultural exhibition considered the largest in the Southern Hemisphere. Over four days, the attendees will discuss innovations in technology, collaborations and various other elements of an industry that last year generated nearly $14 billion in revenue. Notably, according to one participant, there is no planned discussion of violence against white farmers or 'Afrikaner refugees escaping government-sponsored, race-based discrimination, including racially discriminatory property confiscation' without compensation, as President Donald Trump wrote in a Feb. 7 executive order that opened the way for the 59 South Africans to come to U.S., despite a ban on refugees from other nations. The executive order referenced South Africa's Expropriation Act enacted last year, which in some cases allows the government to seize unused land without compensation, something Cyril Ramaphosa, the country's president, said has not happened. The act awakened a profoundly troubling argument over land rights. South Africa's dark history of racism includes the confiscation of land from Black residents, both before and during the apartheid. Afrikaners, the minority white descendants of Dutch and French settlers who arrived in South Africa in the 1600s, were leaders of the apartheid regime that ended in 1994. The purported goal of the Expropriation Act is to shrink the vast land ownership disparity that came with the oppressive rule. According to the organization Action for Southern Africa, 72% of farms and agricultural holdings are owned by whites, who make up 7.3% of the population. Black Africans, representing 81.4%, own only 4% of the land. Trump asserted on Monday, ahead of the refugees' arrival in the U.S., that 'white farmers are being brutally killed and the land is being confiscated in South Africa.' Yet Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, said that the spirit of NAMPO this week reaffirms that 'genocide' of white South African farmers 'was imaginary and not happening in our country.' 'We're all disturbed that the U.S. side is alleging that there's genocide and mistreatment of white farmers in South Africa. It is incorrect,' said Sihlobo, who is also co-author of the book 'The Uncomfortable Truth About South Africa's Agriculture.' 'If anything, the sector continues to flourish. [Trump's] comments are misinformed and not mirroring the reality on the ground in the country,' he said. The New York Times reported 225 people were killed on South African farms over a four-year period ending in 2024. Of those deaths, 101 were Black current or former workers living on farms, and 53 were farmers, who are usually white. Nico Harris, a farmer of Afrikaans heritage, told Daily Maverick South African newspaper that the problems he sees can be overcome and stem from the government not being 'pro-farmer.' 'I think the refugees that have gone [to the U.S.] are not well-established family farming businesses like we are,' Harris told the paper. 'I think they don't have an opportunity in the country and they might think that, 'This is an opportunity for us.' I don't think they're really fleeing because they are scared or worried, I think they see it as an opportunity.' Harris added, 'I think there are racially discriminating laws against white farmers, and I think they have problems and haven't got sympathy from the government. But there are no real land grabs, and I don't think there are real threats. There are individual farm attacks, but it's more related to criminal activity. We just hope our government is going to wake up and realize that they need the farmers, Black and white.' One of the South Africans who arrived in the U.S. on Monday told The Washington Post that she had been advised not to speak with the media and said it had been a 'very emotional, very rough couple of weeks.' Theo Boshoff, CEO of AgBiz, which represents companies across the agricultural value chain, including South African and multinational companies, said crime in rural farming areas is high but 'not targeted against any racial or ethnic group.' 'There is no genocide in South Africa,' Boshoff added. 'People who live in rural areas, who are often farmers, are simply more vulnerable to crime and violent crime because they live in remote areas.' And because they are remote, law enforcement often is not nearby to protect them. 'There is no cultural or racial bias at play. White farmers, Black farmers, white farmworkers, Black farmworkers are all equally at risk and united in combatting this challenge,' he said. 'I also don't agree with insinuations that rural crime is motivated by politics or in any way related to South Africa's affirmative action efforts to remedy our checkered past.' Solidarity, a South African trade union that represents 600,000 Afrikaner families, said in a statement in February that it does not agree with the African National Congress, which wants to close the farmland disparity gap. 'But we love our country. As in any community, there are individuals who wish to immigrate, but repatriation of Afrikaners as refugees is not a solution for us,' the group wrote. President Ramaphosa said on X that the country's laws 'balance the need for public usage of land and the protection of rights of property owners.' He said that a meeting with President Trump about the country's land reform policy would result in them sharing 'a better and common understanding over these matters.' Trump adviser Elon Musk, who was born in South Africa, has talked of his home country having 'racist ownership laws' in a genocidal effort against white farmers. Fadial Adams, a member of the National Assembly of South Africa, a political body that passes legislation and analyzes executive action, warned of Musk's influence on the president. 'Let us not forget that Elon Musk is a beneficiary of our suffering and our slavery in South Africa, and it is not something that he hides. He was raised on a system which benefited white South Africans exclusively,' Adams said. 'Elon Musk should stop acting like the minister for foreign affairs for South Africa. He's not.' The Trump administration and Musk representative did not respond to a request for comment. Afriforum, a nongovernmental South African agency that supports the interests of white citizens, have called for farm murders to be classified as priority crimes requiring special attention, like gender-based violence or rhino-poaching. It does not support the Expropriation Act. 'Many laws identified by the Afrikaner lobby groups as racist are viewed by the African National Congress as being necessary, intentional measures to redress past wrongs,' said Thula Simpson, an associate professor of history at the University of Pretoria in South Africa. 'So the present developments strike at the heart of the post-apartheid consensus.' As for the farmers in South Africa as a whole, Sihlobo, the economist from the Agricultural Business Chamber, pointed at how the country's earnings from exporting produce have grown from $2 billion in the year 2000 to nearly $14 billion in 2024. 'We're self-sufficient,' Sihlobo said. 'That speaks to the progress the sector has been making. You can't see numbers like that where there's a genocide.' Jaco Minnaar, the chairman of AGRI SA, the largest agriculture organization in South Africa, says the larger problem is South Africa's crime rate. 'We can see that farm murders in South Africa have a slightly higher rate per capita than murders in general, but it's farmers and farmworkers, which is not all necessarily white,' Minnaar said. 'Our murder rate is one of the highest per capita in the world, even higher than some of the war-torn countries. That's something that we need to address,' he said. 'But we can't specifically see from the statistics that white people or any other demographic group are targeted. Or that there's a genocide.'
