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Khaleej Times
8 hours ago
- Business
- Khaleej Times
As US joins Israel-Iran conflict, gold seen testing $3,450; GCC stocks coming under pressure
[Editor's Note: Follow our live blog for real-time updates on the latest developments in the Israel-Iran conflict.] Gold prices are expected to spike when markets open on Monday following the United States' entry into the Israel-Iran conflict, launching strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Analysts warn that UAE and other Gulf stock markets will likely come under pressure. However, the overall performance of commodities and equities will depend on how the conflict unfolds over the coming days. On Sunday, US President Donald Trump confirmed that American aircraft had struck three Iranian nuclear sites, marking a significant escalation in the Middle East. Gold prices closed at $3,368.09 per ounce on Friday, down 0.17 per cent. In Dubai, 24K and 22K gold ended the week at Dh406 and Dh376 per gram, respectively. 'Despite low liquidity, this move could be an early signal of how markets will react on Monday,' said Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at He stressed that commodity prices in the coming days will be shaped by how Iran responds to the US strike. Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at Pepperstone, added that heightened geopolitical tensions are reinforcing bullish sentiment for gold. 'I wouldn't be surprised if gold opens 1 to 1.5 per cent higher on Monday, potentially breaking above $3,400 and retesting last week's highs near $3,450,' he said. 'Further escalation or retaliation — especially if Iran or its proxies target strategic chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz or the Strait of Mandeb — will likely keep gold well-supported at elevated levels.' UAE, GCC stocks While geopolitical risks will likely dampen short-term investor sentiment in the GCC, Assiri pointed out that rising oil prices could help offset the impact. 'Higher oil revenues often cycle back into local economies, supporting growth and softening the blow of geopolitical shocks. This acts as a natural hedge for GCC governments.' He also highlighted a divergence in market behavior across the region. 'The UAE market tends to align more with global trends, while the Saudi Tadawul Exchange is more responsive to local and geopolitical developments. When tensions rise, Saudi investors — many of whom keep significant liquidity on hand — often step in to buy, helping the market show surprising resilience.' He cited early April as an example when the Saudi market posted gains despite major tariff announcements. Samer Hasn warned that if rhetoric or actions targeting US bases in the region intensify, regional equities could face greater pressure, especially in countries more directly involved in or vulnerable to the conflict. Oil With the US now fully engaged, Ahmad Assiri said oil's baseline pricing has shifted to the mid-$80 range per barrel. 'We're moving from a regional conflict to a US-managed confrontation, which introduces a higher risk premium. There's also increased tail risk regarding the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Even if Iran doesn't act, the perceived probability of disruption rising from 5 per cent to 15 per cent alone will create an upward premium in crude prices.' Brent and WTI crude closed the previous week at $77.01 and $73.84 per barrel, respectively. Prior to Israel's June 13 strike on Iran, Brent was trading below $70. Samer Hasn echoed expectations for an oil price rally. 'The escalation with direct US involvement is a significant turning point. If Iran retaliates by targeting oil infrastructure, it could trigger deeper US military involvement to prevent broader economic fallout,' he said. Hasn added that if such a scenario materializes, oil and gas prices may face sustained upward pressure, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz — a critical global shipping route. However, if no major developments occur soon, market attention may shift back to economic fundamentals.
Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil prices surge and stocks tumble after Israel attacks Iran
The price of oil surged Friday in one of the market's largest single-day increases in years, reflecting fears that a wider conflict in the Middle East could lead to serious energy supply disruptions. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was last up 6.3% at $71 a barrel. US oil jumped 8.5% to nearly $74 a barrel, after gaining as much as 13% earlier in the day. Those are the biggest intraday gains for each benchmark since March 2022, a month after Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The surge illustrates 'both immediate supply concerns and a growing sense that negative headlines could extend the timeline for escalation unlike prior Israel-Iran episode,' Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at Pepperstone, a financial services firm, wrote in a research note. Meanwhile, US stock futures fell, sending investors retreating to traditional safe haven investments like gold. Dow futures dropped 1.3%, or over 540 points. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq Composite futures were down even more, by 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, gold rose about 1% to $3,413.6 per troy ounce. Early on Friday, Israel launched an unprecedented attack against Iran's nuclear and missile facilities, killing at least two of Iran's top military commanders. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a televised address that the 'targeted military operation' is expected to continue for 'many days.' 'This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat,' Netanyahu said. A state of emergency has been declared in Israel in anticipation of an Iranian retaliation, which appears to have begun. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Israel will face 'severe punishment' for the attacks. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US was not involved in the Israeli operation and warned Iran against targeting US interests or personnel. Investors are concerned about how a retaliation by Iran may play out, whether the US may be targeted and whether a critical oil transport route may be disrupted. If the conflict eliminates Iranian oil from the market, oil prices could spike by about $7.50 a barrel, according to Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, a consulting firm. 'Iran knows full well that Trump is focused on lower energy prices and actions by Iran that impact Middle East supply and consequently raise oil prices damage Trump politically,' he said. The bigger fear now is an even broader conflict that impacts the flow of oil from the Strait of Hormuz, the most critical chokepoint for oil supplies on the planet. 'Should oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz be affected, we could see $100 oil,' Lipow said. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, a consulting firm, told CNN that the oil market had been 'complacent about the risk of geopolitical disruptions' from the region. 'With Israel having commenced attacks against Iran, we expect significantly more risk premium to come into the price of crude in the coming days,' he said. Iran's preparation for a military response 'raises the risk of not just disruptions but of contagion in other neighboring oil producing nations too,' Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, told Reuters. 'Although Trump has shown reluctance to participate, U.S. involvement could further raise concerns,' she said. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Israeli attack on Iran sends oil prices soaring as much as 13%
Global oil prices have had their largest single-day percentage increases in years, reflecting fears that a wider conflict in the Middle East could lead to serious energy supply disruptions. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was last up 4.3% at $72.4 a barrel on Friday. West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, jumped 5% to $71.4 a barrel, after gaining as much as 13% earlier in the day. According to Reuters, they are the biggest intraday gains for each benchmark since March 2022, a month after Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The surge illustrates 'both immediate supply concerns and a growing sense that negative headlines could extend the timeline for escalation unlike prior Israel-Iran episode,' Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at Pepperstone, a financial services firm, wrote in a research note. In the equities market, US stock futures fell, sending investors retreating to traditional safe haven investments like gold. Dow futures dropped 1.3%, or over 540 points. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq Composite futures were down even more, by 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, gold rose about 1% to $3,413.6 per troy ounce. Early on Friday, Israel launched an unprecedented attack against Iran's nuclear and missile facilities, killing at least two of Iran's top military commanders. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a televised address that the 'targeted military operation' is expected to continue for 'many days.' 'This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat,' Netanyahu said. A state of emergency has been declared in Israel in anticipation of an Iranian retaliation, which appears to have begun. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Israel will face 'severe punishment' for the attacks. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US was not involved in the Israeli operation and warned Iran against targeting US interests or personnel. Investors are concerned about how a retaliation by Iran may play out, whether the US may be targeted and whether a critical oil transport route may be disrupted. If the conflict eliminates Iranian oil from the market, oil prices could spike by about $7.50 a barrel, according to Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, a consulting firm. 'Iran knows full well that Trump is focused on lower energy prices and actions by Iran that impact Middle East supply and consequently raise oil prices damage Trump politically,' he said. The bigger fear now is an even broader conflict that impacts the flow of oil from the Strait of Hormuz, the most critical chokepoint for oil supplies on the planet. 'Should oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz be affected, we could see $100 oil,' Lipow said. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, a consulting firm, told CNN that the oil market had been 'complacent about the risk of geopolitical disruptions' from the region. 'With Israel having commenced attacks against Iran, we expect significantly more risk premium to come into the price of crude in the coming days,' he said. Iran's preparation for a military response 'raises the risk of not just disruptions but of contagion in other neighboring oil producing nations too,' Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, told Reuters. 'Although Trump has shown reluctance to participate, U.S. involvement could further raise concerns,' she said. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Khaleej Times
28-04-2025
- Business
- Khaleej Times
Dubai gold prices drop as precious metal slips below $3,300
Gold prices in Dubai were trading below Dh400 per gram at the opening of the markets on the first trading day of the week as global rates fell below $3,300 per ounce. At 9am UAE time, the 24K variant opened at Dh397.5 per gram, down from Dh400 per gram over the weekend. Among the other variants, 22K, 21K and 18K were trading at Dh368.25, Dh353.0 and Dh302.5 per gram, respectively. Globally, gold was trading at $3,300.33 per ounce, down 0.97 per cent. It slipped below $3,290 in early trade. The yellow metal recently surged to all-time highs, fuelled by geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the US-China trade war and the increased weaponisation of the dollar in international financial sanctions. Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at Pepperstone, said despite a reduced need to hedge against the tariff news flow or the removal of Fed chief Jerome Powell by US President Donald Trump, the fundamental backdrop still supports elevated gold prices. 'Should the US data flow deteriorate as many expect, a recession will soon become the market's base case, and suggest easing (from the Fed) of monetary policy would also support gold's investment case. Recent communication from Fed officials emphasises an uncertain outlook for monetary policy, but most have detailed that they will be prepared to act and cut rates if the data does weaken,' he said.
