19-02-2025
Wetin be CPI rebasing wey National Bureau of Statistics do to make Nigeria inflation rate drop by 10% and wetin e mean for di price of goods and services?
Many Nigerians surprise afta di National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) release di inflation figure for January 2025, wey show say inflation drop to 24.48% from di 34.4%.
Bifor dis latest figures, di inflation rate for Nigeria bin drop only once in 2024 and dat na for di month of July wen e drop from 34.19% to 33.4%; and e start to increase steadily again until di end of di year.
Dat na why di recent January figures by di NBS wey show a drastic drop of about 10%, take many pipo by surprise.
According to di NBS, dis development na sake of di rebasing wey dem do for di Consumer Price Index (CPI) wey be di main tool for measuring inflation.
"Di CPI be like basket and many goods and service wey Nigerians dey purchase on daily basis full inside. Rebasing di CPI means say we dey swap out di outdated items for dis basket and we dey fill am wit oda newer items wey reflect wetin pipo dey buy today, and e go make sure say our inflation calculations dey more accurate," di NBS tok.
Dem further explain say dis new CPI basket include 960 products, up from di 740 products wey bin dey di old basket.
Wetin be CPI?
Consumer Price Index (CPI) na index wey dey give a general measure of changes in di average prices of goods and services wey consumers dey mostly buy compared to a period of time wey dem dey call di base year or price reference period.
One of di key importance of dis CPI na say dem dey use am produce kontri inflation rate among oda tins.
Wetin be CPI rebasing?
CPI rebasing na exercise wen dem dey carry out to make sure say di methodological basis upon which dem dey construct di CPI dey strong, logical and consistent with best practices.
According to NBS, e specifically mean to bring di weight and price reference periods closer to di current period. (i.e di current consumption pattern). E go ensure say di inflation figure reflect current inflationary pressure and consumption patterns.
CPI rebasing mean say price of goods and services dey go up or come down?
Di simple answer na no.
Na statistical process wey no directly get impact on di price of goods and service.
E dey only provide up to date measure of price change for di kontri.
Wetin experts tok about di CPI rebasing and how or if e go affect di economy
Paul Alaje wey be ogbonge economist tok say di concept of rebasing mean say di NBS change di reference year wey dem bin dey use to calculate inflation.
Bifor now, di reference year wey di NBS bin dey use na 2009 but now dem decide to use 2024 as di reference or base year, Alaje explain for one interview wit Channels TV.
E further explain dat changing di reference year na best practice bicos two key decisions wey goment take recently - floating di naira and stopping fuel subsidy - bin get strong impact on di economy, so e no make sense to continue to dey use 2009 as di base year.
"But dat one no mean say if you go market, di price don reduce, or to say di quality of life for di ordinary pesin don improve, however, di numbers go help to improve di image of di kontri.
"Di only positive I fit give to dis, however, na di confidence wey dis new figures go bring to our economy in attracting Foreign Direct Investments (FDI).
Anoda sabi pesin wey chook mouth for di matter, Uche Uwaleke, a professor of capital market for Nasarawa State University, agree say dis recent figures no exactly mean say prices of food or oda commodities don come down well-well, e go fit boost Nigeria ability to attract investors.
"Inflation na one number wey investors dey always look at bicos dem dey interested in di real rate of return on dia investment. So wen di inflation number reflect more accurately di inflationary pressure, e go put investors in a position to make a favourable decision," oga Uwaleke tok.
E add say im dey expect dis new inflation rate to also affect di decision of di Central Bank of Nigeria wen dem meet to discuss interest rates.
Meanwhile, one X user wey im handle na @ThaMVP say: "E no be must say we go adopt methodology wey reflect international best practices but e no reflect di peculiarity of local events."
Anoda person, Maurice Ekpenyong, tok say "food inflation dey more dan 100% and you want us to believe say e don drop to 26.08%?"
@alabioloyde simply write: "Dis (figures) no dey correct and e no get any way wey dis na di reality".
