Latest news with #AlanSealls
Yahoo
01-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
NOAA research office could be eliminated under proposed budget cuts
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — Talks of cuts to the federal government continue in Washington D.C. In fact, the proposed 2026 budget from the current administration would eliminate most research done by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA ocean research laboratories and cooperative institutes would reportedly close if the budget is enacted, which will then affect the operations of the National Weather Service. PREVIOUS | The US agency that monitors weather will cut another 1,000 jobs, AP sources say The American Meteorological Society, in conjunction with the National Weather Association, released a statement about the proposed budget cuts, which reads in part: In Tennessee, detecting tornadoes and severe weather is a top priority for the NWS. Research by the NOAA developed the U.S. Doppler Radar Network in the mid-90s, which is what the NWS uses to detect tornadoes and severe weather to warn the public. 'Right now the Doppler Radar Network has a projected lifespan early 2030s,' explained Alan Sealls, president-elect of the American Meteorological Society. 'NOAA has been doing research with the next generation of radars to replace those in the early 2030s. Part of the budget plan is really throwing a wrench into all of that.' Over half of NOAA's Regional Climate Centers' websites go dark due to 'lapse in federal funding' NOAA's research into hurricane and tropical storm forecasting has made great strides, as well. 'A lot of people don't realize that the hurricane forecast cone over the last twenty years, the accuracy has increased, or basically, the error has decreased by 50%,' Sealls pointed out. 'Can you imagine that? If you were a major league pitcher and all of a sudden you could throw twice as many strikes as you used to have? 'That's what the Hurricane Center is doing. It's not just because they are good meteorologists, which they are, they're passionate, like all government meteorologists. But it's because of the research that has gone into that,' Sealls added. 'Same thing with tornado forecasting and warning. All of it is so much better, it's not perfect, but it's so much better because of the research that we vitally need to continue.' ⏩ The American Meteorological Society and the National Weather Association is asking people to contact their congressional representatives and senators to let them know how vital this research is. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Forbes
25-03-2025
- Science
- Forbes
How Does A Cloud Stay In The Sky?
Have you ever wondered how a cloud stays in the sky? In a recent conversation with my friend and colleague Alan Sealls, the AMS President-Elect told me that he pondered this very question, and it sparked his interest in becoming a meteorologist. Since I have been writing about important but heavy topics in recent weeks, let's 'lighten' it up and explore a little meteorology 101. Further reading, however, will reveal that clouds are not as 'light' as you may have thought. What is a cloud anyhow? The Glossary of the American Meteorological Society defined a cloud as, 'A visible aggregate of minute water droplets and/or ice particles in the atmosphere above the earth's surface.' The shape, altitude, and precipitation potential of clouds depend on various meteorological conditions, but that's not the focus of this conversation. How does these collections of water droplets and/or ice remain suspended in the air? Even though an innocent-looking cumulus cloud may look as light as a cotton ball, it can be heavier than you may think. A U.S. Geological Survey website cited columnist Cecil Adams who wrote, 'A modest-size cloud, one kilometer in diameter and 100 meters thick, has a mass equivalent to one B-747 jumbo jet.' How can a cloud weigh so much? Clouds are comprised of droplets or ice particles so that means they have mass, density and weight. Let's explore something called cloud density. For arguments sake, I will focus on a cumulus cloud. In a typical cloud, there are a certain number of cloud particles in a given volume. A USGS website gave an estimate that a typical cumulus cloud may contain 1 billion cubic meters. If density is considered 0.5 grams of cloud droplets within that given volume, the mass is 500,000 kilograms (1.1 million pounds or 551 tons). I arrived at that number by doing a simple math problem. Mass is equal to density multiplied by volume. So how does something that heavy float? Believe it or note, the dry air beneath the cloud is denser than clouds above it. At the same temperature and pressure, moist air is less dense than dry air. This is where I have to introduce Avogadro's law. Dry air is made up of nitrogen and oxygen. Moist air contains water. The molecular mass of nitrogen is greater than water, which means the less dense water replaces denser nitrogen in moist air. If you want to see how differences in density work, pour a sugary soda in a glass and then add a sugarless soda on top of it. I used to do stuff like that at food buffets all of the time. Can you imagine how much a massive cumulonimbus cloud weighs? Do the math yourself on your lunch break. Happy Cloud-Gazing Day.
Yahoo
12-02-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Trump's budget cuts could kill your local weather forecast — and put you in danger
Almost everyone has heard of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and its offshoot, the National Weather Service. Meteorologists depend upon it to offer accurate local forecasts, and its alerts and advisories warn millions of people about dangerous conditions. But they may not know it is part of the Department of Commerce, and, more surprising, that its mission has specifically included 'protecting life and property.' Without the agency, known as NOAA, weather forecasts wouldn't be as reliable, and the impacts of extreme weather on a less prepared public could be devastating. 'Everyone would be shocked about the negative things that could happen,' said Alan Sealls, president-elect of the American Meteorological Society and former chief meteorologist at WKRG-TV in Mobile, Alabama. 'Those compromises will be not just unpleasant, and not just uncomfortable, but truly dangerous.' It remains unclear just what President Donald Trump has in mind for NOAA. His nominee for commerce secretary, financier Howard Lutnick, has vowed to keep it intact. But Project 2025, the conservative roadmap to a second Trump term, calls for it to be 'broken up and downsized,' and Russell Vought, an architect of that blueprint, now leads the federal Office of Management and Budget. In late January, employees at NOAA's Asheville, North Carolina, office were told to remove internal web pages and cancel events and meetings. Last week, Elon Musk sent a Department of Government Efficiency team to the agency's headquarters in Washington, D.C., in what has for other agencies been the start of radical downsizing. 'I'm in fear of losing my job every day,' said a National Weather Service employee who requested anonymity. So far, most cuts seem to have targeted diversity programs, including the organization's head of diversity, equity, inclusion and accessibility, who was put on leave after a right-wing social media account targeted them. As to what might happen next, this person said, 'pretty much everybody is in the dark.' President Richard Nixon established NOAA in 1970, but its roots stretch back to 1807 and the creation of the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey to chart the nation's coastline. The Weather Bureau followed in 1870 and the Commission of Fish and Fisheries one year later. NOAA still fulfills these roles through divisions like the National Weather Service, or NWS, and Marine Fisheries Service, which helps ensure sustainable harvesting of the oceans and a safe food supply. Read Next Trump's quest for 'energy dominance' is all about the vibes Kate Yoder Today, the agency employs about 12,000 people worldwide; over half are scientists and engineers. Its current budget is $6.5 billion. Of that, about $1.4 billion goes to the NWS, or about $4 for every citizen. In addition to providing free weather data, forecasts, and alerts, that allocation saves taxpayers money. The agency's work predicting hurricanes saves billions in avoided damage alone, and allows crisis managers and first responders to better prepare for disasters. By one estimate, every dollar invested in the NWS reaps more than $9 in return. 'It's a great deal for the American public,' said Pat Spoden, who was a National Weather Service meteorologist from 1987 to 2022. 'A lot of people don't understand or know where the weather data comes from and how much the Weather Service, and NOAA, provides.' The agency manages 18 satellites, nearly 100 weather balloon launch sites, and around 250 oceanic buoys that produce billions of observations each day. That information goes to 122 forecasting offices, where meteorologists generate weather projections that are disseminated across the country, including on a network of 1,000 NWS radio stations. Beyond providing the basis for weather watch and warning alerts, these reports are the foundation upon which private weather services like AccuWeather and The Weather Channel stand. 'AccuWeather does not have their own fleet of satellites and weather radar and ground stations. They do not operate their own weather predictive models,' said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles. 'All these private weather enterprises are built upon the public backbone of data.' They're either using NOAA data directly, Swain added, or adjusting it in some proprietary way. The private sector also relies on NOAA's vast research archive, housed at the four offices of the National Centers for Environmental Information. This trove includes historical records detailing changes in Earth's oceans, land masses, ice sheets, atmosphere, and magnetic field. These repositories offer a wealth of local, national, and international climate findings and modeling, and have recorded nearly real-time analysis of temperature and precipitation changes since 2000. All of this info is invaluable to researchers, analysts, and myriad industries that predict future conditions. 'What most people don't realize is insurance companies base your rates on that data record and how it is projected to go forward,' said Craig McLean, the agency's former research division director. 'Banking, finance, real estate, the transportation industry, agriculture, they all look in the futures market at data that is stored historically, but also collected daily around the world.' Yet NOAA's critics consider the agency, and its information, a threat. Thomas Gilman, who served in the Commerce Department, wrote in Project 2025 that it is 'one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry and, as such, is harmful to the future of U.S. prosperity.' That document notes 'the preponderance of its climate-change research should be disbanded.' Project 2025 seems to favor maintaining only those functions that serve corporate interests, noting that, 'because private companies rely on this data, the NWS should fully commercialize its forecasting operations.' Critics of such a move argue that putting such an essential resource behind a paywall would harm the public. Megan Duzmal, a meteorologist at WYMT, a small TV station in eastern Kentucky, relies upon NOAA data to do her job. The station serves a largely rural area that those in larger markets like Louisville do not focus on. 'They don't look individually at these communities, but we are able to, as a smaller market, zoom into the small cities here,' Duzmal said, with enough precision to 'point out road names.' The station provided essential information to viewers during a spate of recent floods, most recently after Hurricane Helene. When a storm is brewing, Duzmal receives information about flash flooding risks from a hydrologist at the National Weather Service in Jackson, Kentucky. Assessing the danger requires analyzing complex factors like soil moisture, previous drought conditions, and topography. It demands a firm grasp of both science and local conditions. If the tools she and countless other local meteorologists rely upon are privatized, they could become too expensive for small stations in rural areas. That could prove deadly to residents of communities that already lack robust cellular service and reliable internet providers. Privatization could also create varying forecasts from competing companies, leading to confusion. 'Without the one voice, you run into issues of what do you believe or who do you believe,' said Spoden, the former NWS meteorologist. 'It's just so important to have an official source.' That raises perhaps the most important question about privatization: What services would companies even be willing to take on? It's unclear, for instance, that any private enterprise would want to be responsible, and thus liable, for issuing warnings or alerts. Spoden also wonders whether private sector meteorologists would deploy to disaster areas to brief emergency responders, like NWS employees did during the fires in Los Angeles. 'They are the most dedicated group of civil servants you're going to find,' said Spoden. 'It would be very difficult for any private company to do what the National Weather Service does.' It remains to be seen what the Trump administration will do. It's an open question, for instance, whether the National Weather Service Employees Organization's collective bargaining agreement, which runs through 2029, will hold up against any efforts to dismantle the organization. But the employee who fears for their job says the president's attacks on NOAA feel unprecedented. 'He's going no holds barred,' they said. 'It's very aggressive.' This story was originally published by Grist with the headline Trump's budget cuts could kill your local weather forecast — and put you in danger on Feb 12, 2025.
