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CBC
17-05-2025
- Business
- CBC
Want to boost Albertans' support for leaving CPP? Ask the question differently
It's apparent that a fourth Liberal victory has triggered a surge in anti-Ottawa sentiment in Alberta, but have things changed so much that a populace long opposed to pulling the province out of the Canada Pension Plan now supports it? One reading of fresh polling commissioned by the Premier Danielle Smith's government argues as much. A Postmedia writer got his hands on a provincially funded survey by pollster Janet Brown's Trend Research, and used the results to argue that most Albertans — 55 per cent — now back an APP instead of a CPP. The article compared that to only 23 per cent support in a Leger poll earlier this year, which is similar to multiple survey findings in 2024 and not much better than Brown herself tracked in 2022. One more Liberal prime minister later, and now the province is ready to walk away from CPP? Not so fast. This takes some squinting. As happens so often, the answer may not be as important as the question used to obtain it. "Different questions will give you different results," Brown said in an interview with CBC News, after publicly releasing the entire government-commissioned poll on her own website, for transparency's sake. For the last several years, different pollsters have yielded similar results by asking roughly the same question of poll respondents: "Do you believe the Alberta government should create a new provincial pension plan to replace the Canada Pension Plan for Albertans?" The survey the Smith government paid for put it differently. It asked about "replacing the Canada Pension Plan with an Alberta Pension Plan that guaranteed all Alberta seniors the same or better benefits than the Canada Pension Plan." (italics ours) The government's question added a perspective-shifting caveat to the simple yes-or-no question, offering a guarantee of no financial risk for pensioners — an assurance that could depend largely on how much of the total CPP pie Alberta would get as its starting pot, a figure that remains in dispute. If supporting Alberta separatism came with guaranteeing zero economic hardship, perhaps more residents would say they support it, too. Brown noted another unique feature of her survey, which other non-government polls haven't included: an option to say they'd vote for, against, or "would need more information." To that unusually guarantee-caveated question, 22 per cent said they needed more information; 35 said they'd vote against, and 42 per cent were for the no-downside CPP exit. ( A person would have to strip out the information-hungry from the survey to report that a majority of Albertans back an APP.) "That's really what it was about, just finding out: who's entrenched?" Brown said. "Who's made up their mind? And who is seeking more information?" There were several questions the Smith government commissioned along those three-option lines. To the question about replacing the RCMP with a provincial police — with a caveat that municipal police forces would stay intact — the survey found 30 per cent are for, 42 per cent against, and 26 per cent wanted more information. On having the Alberta government collect provincial taxes instead of the Canada Revenue Agency, 40 per cent were for the idea, 32 per cent against, and 27 per cent wanted more information (though they could claim majority support among the certain). "Taking over provincial immigration by only providing provincial benefits to non-citizen immigrants who satisfy Alberta's immigration requirements?" (This idea has not otherwise been publicly floated by the UCP government.) It's 35 per cent yea, 25 per cent nay, and 39 per cent who need to understand this one better. As the government gathers public opinion research on these matters — and seemingly leaks out what it wants reported to select media — it might be worth remembering that Smith has said she'll consider putting some issues to provincial referendum in 2026, based on what her upcoming "Alberta Next" consultation tour concludes. These questions could well be the sort of major changes in provincial-federal roles that a premier might want to get the public's approval on before proceeding. After all, Smith has always said she'd only take Alberta out of the CPP if it appeared there was a popular mandate for it — and as recently as May 1 said she sensed no "appetite" for the idea. No appetite, that is, unless the question assured Albertans they'd be no worse off (and quite possibly better off) under an Alberta plan. As most research experts will assert, the sequencing or clustering of questions can influence how people answer them. Any question(s) that Smith puts to a referendum in 2026 could be posed alongside the ballot measure she said she isn't asking for, but many petitioners are — Alberta independence. It's entirely possible that separation would just become the biggest proposed act of retrenchment from the federal government voters are asked to consider, alongside single-aspect withdrawals from federal influence, on pensions or matters like policing, immigration or tax collection. Would having less drastic measures than divorcing from Canada have more appeal than separation, or deter some soft-separatists from that step? It might, of course, all depend on how you pose and frame the questions.
Edmonton Journal
16-05-2025
- Politics
- Edmonton Journal
Bell: Say what?! Alberta Pension Plan now backed by most Albertans
Who would have thunk it? Most Albertans polled backing an Alberta Pension Plan. Is this part of the Alberta backlash against Liberal Ottawa? Premier Danielle Smith speaks at the Alberta legislature in Edmontonin Oct. 2024. David Bloom/Postmedia It's alive! It's back! Am I reading the right numbers here? Have I got my glasses on upside down? Is there an optometrist in the house? A second look. There it is. As part of a poll commissioned by the Alberta government, the question is posed. If a provincial referendum vote was held today, would you vote for or against the following? Replacing the Canada Pension Plan, the CPP, with an Alberta Pension Plan, an APP, that guaranteed all Alberta seniors the same or better benefits. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Exclusive articles by David Staples, Keith Gerein and others, Oilers news from Cult of Hockey, Ask EJ Anything features, the Noon News Roundup and Under the Dome newsletters. Unlimited online access to Edmonton Journal and 15 news sites with one account. Edmonton Journal ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on. Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword. Support local journalism. SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Exclusive articles by David Staples, Keith Gerein and others, Oilers news from Cult of Hockey, Ask EJ Anything features, the Noon News Roundup and Under the Dome newsletters. Unlimited online access to Edmonton Journal and 15 news sites with one account. Edmonton Journal ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on. Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword. Support local journalism. REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account. Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments. Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors. THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK. Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors A drum roll, please. This needs a drum roll. Yes to replacing the CPP with an Alberta Pension Plan. 55 per cent. No and keep the CPP. 45 per cent. For the record, this hot-off-the-press poll was commissioned by the Alberta government. The poll was conducted by Trend Research under the direction of the well-respected Janet Brown. 55 per cent in favour. Let that sink in. In February of this year the Leger firm had a poll where 23 per cent were in favour of an Alberta Pension Plan, 55 per cent were opposed and 22 per cent didn't know where they stood. Only 23 per cent backing an APP is the exact same number of support as a Leger poll found last summer. Then look at Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. Last fall, she was on a podcast musing about what would happen if the amount of money Ottawa was prepared to hand over to Alberta if the province pulled out of the CPP ended up being a much smaller amount than anticipated. Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. Please try again This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. 'Is it worth it? Is the juice worth the squeeze?' said Smith. Then there was Smith at the beginning of this month, right after Mark Carney and the Liberals won the election and many Albertans were just beginning to digest that hard-to-stomach news. As Smith spoke, it looked very much like she felt the Alberta Pension Plan was spinning its wheels. It just wasn't getting the traction. The premier was not seeing an appetite to put the pension question to the people. 'I have said I would put it to the people if I saw evidence they wanted to vote on it but I'm not seeing that at the moment.' Read More Smith said the lack of appetite for a vote could partly be because of the lack of detail on exactly how much money Alberta would receive from Ottawa for exiting the CPP. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. The numbers. A look-see for the Alberta government believed Alberta would score mega bucks from pulling out of the CPP. More than $300 billion. Lower premiums and/or higher benefits and all the pension money would stay here. People questioned the big, big number. It became clear Ottawa wouldn't hand over that kind of dough to Alberta, nowhere near that amount. The Alberta Pension Plan has been kicking around awhile. After the 2019 election win by the Liberals under Justin Trudeau, when many Albertans were angry at the prospect of more years of grief from Ottawa, then-premier Jason Kenney struck a Fair Deal panel. The panel said Alberta was putting more money into the CPP than it was getting out. A younger population, higher incomes played a big part in that. Some said it was like the much-reviled equalization with Alberta on the short end of the stick. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. The panel's recommendation was to develop a plan for an Alberta Pension Plan and put the idea to a referendum vote of Albertans. But the idea of the APP didn't take off. That was then, this is now. Apparently, if this poll is on the money, it has taken off. We live in interesting times in Alberta. Pierre Poilievre is not the prime minister. Conservatives are not the government. The Liberals, with the help of frightened Ontario boomers, are still in power. Many Albertans are upset. Look at all the news of rising separatist sentiment since Carney and the Liberals carried the day. Even the eastern press are paying attention. Look at the recent Angus Reid poll, written about in this column, where 65 per cent of Smith's UCP voters are committed to Alberta leaving Canada or leaning in that direction. Stunning. Is this pension poll number evidence of the anger visible throughout Alberta? Smith will be going out and listening to Albertans in the summer and early fall. There will be opportunities for people to suggest what questions could be on a referendum ballot, expected in the late spring of 2026. There will be a chance to see if this poll is catching the mood. Make no mistake. If the poll is on the right track the question of an Alberta Pension Plan could very well be on the ballot. The same ballot where a vote on Alberta leaving Canada is almost certainly going to appear. rbell@ Politics News Crime Local News Edmonton Oilers
Calgary Herald
16-05-2025
- Politics
- Calgary Herald
Bell: Say what?! Alberta Pension Plan now backed by most Albertans
Article content Article content A second look. There it is. Article content As part of a poll commissioned by the Alberta government, the question is posed. Article content If a provincial referendum vote was held today, would you vote for or against the following? Article content Replacing the Canada Pension Plan, the CPP, with an Alberta Pension Plan, an APP, that guaranteed all Alberta seniors the same or better benefits. Article content Article content A drum roll, please. This needs a drum roll. Article content Article content Yes to replacing the CPP with an Alberta Pension Plan. 55 per cent. No and keep the CPP. 45 per cent. Article content For the record, this hot-off-the-press poll was commissioned by the Alberta government. Article content The poll was conducted by Trend Research under the direction of the well-respected Janet Brown. Article content 55 per cent in favour. Let that sink in. Article content In February of this year the Leger firm had a poll where 23 per cent were in favour of an Alberta Pension Plan, 55 per cent were opposed and 22 per cent didn't know where they stood. Article content Only 23 per cent backing an APP is the exact same number of support as a Leger poll found last summer. Article content Then look at Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. Article content Last fall, she was on a podcast musing about what would happen if the amount of money Ottawa was prepared to hand over to Alberta if the province pulled out of the CPP ended up being a much smaller amount than anticipated. Article content 'Is it worth it? Is the juice worth the squeeze?' said Smith. Article content Article content Then there was Smith at the beginning of this month, right after Mark Carney and the Liberals won the election and many Albertans were just beginning to digest that hard-to-stomach news. Article content Article content As Smith spoke, it looked very much like she felt the Alberta Pension Plan was spinning its wheels. It just wasn't getting the traction. Article content Smith said the lack of appetite for a vote could partly be because of the lack of detail on exactly how much money Alberta would receive from Ottawa for exiting the CPP.
Calgary Herald
14-05-2025
- Politics
- Calgary Herald
Opinion: Albertans deserve truth, not hidden agendas
Alberta is being led in a direction that many of us never consented to. The growing discussions around provincial separation and the Alberta Pension Plan (APP) are not only controversial, they're being pursued without full transparency, without informed public consent, and without the inclusion of Indigenous voices. Article content Article content Article content Let's start with the facts. The United Conservative Party (UCP) did not campaign on separation or the creation of an Alberta-only pension plan during the last election. These were not parts of their electoral platform, and yet they have become central to the UCP's post-election agenda. This is a betrayal of democratic norms. Albertans voted without being told that their province's place within Canada, or the status of their retirement savings, was up for negotiation. Article content Article content Article content The handling of the Alberta Pension Plan has only made matters worse. The government's report on the APP was riddled with estimates and unverified assumptions, not grounded in facts. The identity of the report's author was redacted – a move that further eroded public trust. Most disturbing, however, is that the UCP conducted a survey on Albertans' views regarding the APP but never released the results. If the public supported the plan, why hide the findings? Article content Article content Article content In a further blow to democratic participation, the rules for citizen petitions were quietly changed. Previously, a petition required support from a significant portion of eligible voters – around 600,000 people. Now, it only needs signatures from those who actually voted in the last election, reducing that number to about 166,000. This may seem like a procedural change, but it's not. It drastically lowers the threshold for launching initiatives that could reshape the province in profound and irreversible ways. Most troubling of all is the disregard for Indigenous peoples. Alberta exists on treaty land. Indigenous nations are not passive observers, they are rights-holders under the Constitution and treaty law. And yet, there's been no sincere effort to engage Indigenous communities about what separation would mean for them, their lands, or their futures. Treaty territory and national parks – many of which are federal lands – would be excluded from any hypothetical new Alberta, shrinking the province's size and ignoring the fundamental rights of the First Peoples of this land. This level of exclusion is not just an oversight, it's a violation of both constitutional and moral obligations. Any discussion about Alberta's future must begin with Indigenous consultation, not end with their erasure. Article content Article content Albertans are not naive. We know when we're being misled. What we're witnessing is not responsible governance, it's a campaign of distraction, manipulation, and quiet manoeuvring. Enough is enough. It's time for honesty. It's time for inclusion. And it's time for a government that serves the people, not just its own ambitions. Article content Article content
