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Al Jazeera
21-04-2025
- Business
- Al Jazeera
Bitter truth: Why has chocolate become so expensive?
Cocoa prices surged almost 300 percent last year, making chocolate bars, easter eggs and cocoa powder much more expensive this year than last. In the US, retail chocolate prices were one-fifth higher this Valentine's Day compared with last year, according to Wells Fargo Bank. The price of a king-size US-sold Reese's Hearts chocolate bar was 13 percent higher in February 2024 than in the same month the year before. In the United Kingdom, meanwhile, a Twix white chocolate Easter egg rose in price from 5 to 6 pounds ($6.63 to $7.96) at Tesco supermarkets in the run-up to Easter (year-on-year) and was reduced in size from 316g (11oz) to 258g (9oz). In all, the unit price rose by a whopping 47 percent. While the price of cocoa – made from roasted raw cacao beans, the key ingredient in chocolate – has fallen back by about 20 percent since its all-time high in December 2024, consumers are still paying record prices for chocolate. The spike in the price of cocoa can be chalked up to several factors. Chief among them is extreme weather, which has hit cocoa producers in West Africa, from where most of the world imports cocoa. According to Amber Sawyer, an analyst at the environmental think tank Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), expensive chocolate shouldn't come as a surprise. 'Chocolate is just one of the many foods being made more expensive by climate change-driven extreme weather,' she said. 'These extremes will keep getting worse.' And so might the prices. Benchmark New York futures contracts, used to exchange cocoa at a specified future date and price, hit a high of $12,565 per metric tonne in December 2024. Last year's meagre cocoa harvest led to record supply shortfalls, as poor weather and disease devastated crops in Ghana and the Ivory Coast, where two-thirds of the world's cocoa beans are grown. Crop shortages were also observed in Nigeria and Indonesia, the third- and fourth-largest cocoa producers. In all, there was a 500,000-tonne deficit of cocoa in global markets in 2024, which is continuing to keep prices high. The latest cocoa harvest – which ran from October 2024 to March 2025 – did get off to a bright start, with 33 percent more beans arriving at Ivory Coast ports compared with last year, Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch said in a note to clients. But while the New York cocoa futures price is currently hovering at about $8,350 per tonne – a significant drop from December – concerns are growing that the same dry weather that wrecked last year's crop will take a similarly devastating toll this year, Fritsch said. The uncertainty is taking a toll on chocolate producers. Swiss chocolate maker Barry Callebaut slashed its annual sales forecasts on April 11 due to what it called 'unprecedented volatility' in cocoa prices, sending its shares falling almost 20 percent – its biggest ever one-day drop. Volatile weather is one major factor. West Africa experienced extreme rainfall in 2023, with total precipitation more than double the 30-year average in some places, while 2024 saw extreme heat and drought. Many climate scientists point to the El Nino weather phenomenon, which produces warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, as the primary driver for volatile weather patterns. However, they also expect a transition to the La Nina pattern – the cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific every three to five years – to revive cocoa yields at least temporarily. Indeed, the International Cocoa Organization in February forecast a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 megatonnes for 2024/25, the first surplus in four years. That partly explains the recent fall in price. But according to Felipe Pohlmann Gonzaga, a Switzerland-based commodity trader, the larger picture of 'climate change is only going to make supply concerns worse' in the longer term. Scientists at the research group Climate Central published a paper this year showing that climate change compromised cacao trees during the harvest season in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Besides changing weather patterns, several other issues are also driving recent price hikes in cocoa. Across West Africa, new deforestation laws have prevented farmers from expanding cocoa plantations, keeping a lid on supply. West Africa is also grappling with an ageing tree stock. 'Older trees are not being replaced,' Pohlmann Gonzaga told Al Jazeera. 'There has been under-investment in the industry.' At the same time, the spread of the cocoa swollen shoot virus (CSSV) has hit harvests. Tropical Research Services, a market research group, recently found that Ivory Coast cocoa production could halve due to the spread of CSSV. Meanwhile, Ghanaian cocoa farmers are abandoning beans for gold in an illegal mining boom that has hit Ghana's cocoa production and helped drive up prices. In recent months, investors have been buying up the precious metal to shield themselves from the financial market turmoil unleashed by United States President Donald Trump's trade tariffs. On April 16, gold reached $3,357 per ounce for the first time. As a result, many farmers are selling their holdings to illegal miners who have decimated swaths of land in pursuit of gold. Ghana is Africa's leading producer of gold — and the sixth-biggest globally. 'Tariffs have had an impact on the value of commodities, and cocoa is no exception,' says Pohlmann Gonzaga. 'At first, you'd think trade levies would reduce demand for cocoa in the US, which is a big consumer.' The US consumes the most chocolate in the world, though the Swiss take that tag for the most per-capita consumption. 'But if US consumption persists, that could raise prices. And of course, Trump may drop tariffs [on West African cocoa exporters] in the future, which would probably lead to higher demand.' Pohlmann Gonzaga cited the growing demand for chocolate in East Asia. 'We may be seeing a similar trend as with coffee,' he said. China's coffee consumption, for instance, increased by more than 60 percent between 2019 and 2024. In the near term, Pohlmann Gonzaga said prices are likely to 'trend sideways … as these factors can cancel each other out. Volatility will be the word of order for this year.' So far, producers have responded in one of two ways – by passing the higher cost to consumers, or by promoting products with less cocoa or with substitute ingredients. Last year, food giant Nestle introduced a hazelnut flavour to its British Aero line of chocolate bars, which, at 36g (1.3oz), are about one-third the weight of competing chocolate bars. In 2024, agri-food giant Cargill partnered with US chocolate alternatives producer Voyage Foods – which creates cocoa-free bars from grape seeds, sunflower flour and other flavourings – to be its business-to-business distributor. In addition to big companies, startups like Nukoko and Planet A are exploring microbial fermentation techniques to enhance and mimic the aromas and flavour of chocolate. Elsewhere, Dubai chocolate was founded in 2022. Its products are filled with pistachio and tahini and are inspired by kunafa, the chessy, saccharine dessert that is a staple across the Middle East and North Africa. Since coming to market, it has become a social media sensation. If cocoa prices continue rising, 'I'd expect to see more and more cocoa substitutes on supermarket shelves. The interesting question is whether consumer tastes will change,' said Pohlmann Gonzaga.
The Independent
17-04-2025
- Business
- The Independent
Chocolate prices up nearly 50 per cent in three years as ‘Chocflation' persists
Chocolate prices have increase by almost half in just three years, latest inflation figures show, making products like chocolate bars, easter eggs and cocoa powder more expensive. The steep rise is the result of extreme weather affecting major cocoa producers in west African nations, from where the UK and most of the world imports its cocoa beans. Since 2022, chocolate prices have gone up 43 per cent, according to analysis of the latest official figures by the green think tank Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU). The numbers, gathered from the Office for National Statistics figures (ONS), show that chocolate price inflation is increasing, rising from 9.8 per cent last Easter compared to Easter 2023 to 13.6 per cent this year on Easter 2024. In March, Which? found that Easter eggs have gone up in price by as much as 50 per cent on last year while shrinking in size in what was dubbed 'Chocflation'. Inflation tracking by the consumer group found the price of chocolate has risen by 16.5 per cent in a year, compared to a 4.4 per cent increase for supermarket food and drink overall. ONS data shows that cumulative inflation from March 2022, when prices were relatively stable before West Africa was hit by extreme weather, to March this year, comes out at 43%. The ECIU warned that this was largely driven by extreme weather caused by climate change affecting cocoa producers Ivory Coast and Ghana. ECIU analyst Amber Sawyer said: 'Chocolate is just one of the many foods being made more expensive by climate change-driven extreme weather hitting crops, and until we reach net zero emissions, these extremes will keep getting worse. 'The farmers who grow the cocoa beans that become our Easter eggs have been really struggling, hit by wave after wave of extreme weather, while here at home farmers in England saw their second worst harvest on record last year because of storms that were made 20% heavier and 10 times more likely by climate change. 'With our food security under threat, be it cocoa, rice, bananas or British vegetables rotting in flooded fields, farmers will need increasing support to keep on growing the food we need, in the UK but also through climate finance for farmers overseas.' Recent ECIU analysis found that imports of cocoa beans to the UK have fallen by 10% since 2022, while the average price per kilo has gone up by a third (32%), meaning the UK is paying more for less cocoa. Ivory Coast and Ghana supply more than half of cocoa globally. Ivory Coast was the UK's top supplier in 2024, providing 84% of our cocoa beans worth £135 million. 2023 saw extreme rainfall in West Africa, with total precipitation more than double the 30-year average for the time of year in some places, while 2024 saw extreme heat and drought. Scientists at the World Weather Attribution found that the humid heatwave last Easter was made 4C hotter and 10 times more likely because of climate change, the ECIU said. West African cocoa farmers had gone from having too much rain to not enough, affecting the planting, growing and harvesting of cocoa crops, feeding through to prices.
Yahoo
17-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Chocolate prices up by almost half in three years
Chocolate prices are up by almost half in just three years, latest inflation figures show, as extreme weather affects major cocoa producers. Chocolate prices have gone up 43% since 2022, according to analysis of latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures by green think tank the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU). The figures show chocolate price inflation is increasing, rising from 9.8% last Easter compared to Easter 2023 to 13.6% this year on Easter 2024. In March, Which? found that Easter eggs have gone up in price by as much as 50% on last year while shrinking in size. Inflation tracking by the consumer group found the price of chocolate has risen by 16.5% in a year, compared to a 4.4% increase for supermarket food and drink overall. ONS data shows that cumulative inflation from March 2022, when prices were relatively stable before West Africa was hit by extreme weather, to March this year, comes out at 43%. The ECIU warned that this was largely driven by extreme weather caused by climate change affecting cocoa producers Ivory Coast and Ghana. ECIU analyst Amber Sawyer said: 'Chocolate is just one of the many foods being made more expensive by climate change-driven extreme weather hitting crops, and until we reach net zero emissions, these extremes will keep getting worse. 'The farmers who grow the cocoa beans that become our Easter eggs have been really struggling, hit by wave after wave of extreme weather, while here at home farmers in England saw their second worst harvest on record last year because of storms that were made 20% heavier and 10 times more likely by climate change. 'With our food security under threat, be it cocoa, rice, bananas or British vegetables rotting in flooded fields, farmers will need increasing support to keep on growing the food we need, in the UK but also through climate finance for farmers overseas.' Recent ECIU analysis found that imports of cocoa beans to the UK have fallen by 10% since 2022, while the average price per kilo has gone up by a third (32%), meaning the UK is paying more for less cocoa. Ivory Coast and Ghana supply more than half of cocoa globally. Ivory Coast was the UK's top supplier in 2024, providing 84% of our cocoa beans worth £135 million. 2023 saw extreme rainfall in West Africa, with total precipitation more than double the 30-year average for the time of year in some places, while 2024 saw extreme heat and drought. Scientists at the World Weather Attribution found that the humid heatwave last Easter was made 4C hotter and 10 times more likely because of climate change, the ECIU said. West African cocoa farmers had gone from having too much rain to not enough, affecting the planting, growing and harvesting of cocoa crops, feeding through to prices. Sign in to access your portfolio
The Independent
17-04-2025
- Business
- The Independent
Chocolate prices up by almost half in three years
Chocolate prices are up by almost half in just three years, latest inflation figures show, as extreme weather affects major cocoa producers. Chocolate prices have gone up 43% since 2022, according to analysis of latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures by green think tank the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU). The figures show chocolate price inflation is increasing, rising from 9.8% last Easter compared to Easter 2023 to 13.6% this year on Easter 2024. In March, Which? found that Easter eggs have gone up in price by as much as 50% on last year while shrinking in size. Inflation tracking by the consumer group found the price of chocolate has risen by 16.5% in a year, compared to a 4.4% increase for supermarket food and drink overall. ONS data shows that cumulative inflation from March 2022, when prices were relatively stable before West Africa was hit by extreme weather, to March this year, comes out at 43%. The ECIU warned that this was largely driven by extreme weather caused by climate change affecting cocoa producers Ivory Coast and Ghana. ECIU analyst Amber Sawyer said: 'Chocolate is just one of the many foods being made more expensive by climate change-driven extreme weather hitting crops, and until we reach net zero emissions, these extremes will keep getting worse. 'The farmers who grow the cocoa beans that become our Easter eggs have been really struggling, hit by wave after wave of extreme weather, while here at home farmers in England saw their second worst harvest on record last year because of storms that were made 20% heavier and 10 times more likely by climate change. 'With our food security under threat, be it cocoa, rice, bananas or British vegetables rotting in flooded fields, farmers will need increasing support to keep on growing the food we need, in the UK but also through climate finance for farmers overseas.' Recent ECIU analysis found that imports of cocoa beans to the UK have fallen by 10% since 2022, while the average price per kilo has gone up by a third (32%), meaning the UK is paying more for less cocoa. Ivory Coast and Ghana supply more than half of cocoa globally. Ivory Coast was the UK's top supplier in 2024, providing 84% of our cocoa beans worth £135 million. 2023 saw extreme rainfall in West Africa, with total precipitation more than double the 30-year average for the time of year in some places, while 2024 saw extreme heat and drought. Scientists at the World Weather Attribution found that the humid heatwave last Easter was made 4C hotter and 10 times more likely because of climate change, the ECIU said. West African cocoa farmers had gone from having too much rain to not enough, affecting the planting, growing and harvesting of cocoa crops, feeding through to prices.
The Guardian
27-03-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
Surging cost of cocoa leads UK shoppers to shell out more for smaller Easter eggs
Shoppers are shelling out for smaller eggs this Easter as shrinkflation takes a bite out of the favourite seasonal treat. The price of eggs made by big names including Cadbury, Mars and Terry's have risen by as much as 50% in some cases while some have also shrunk in size, according to research by consumer champion Which?. When pack sizes are reduced and prices stay the same, or even go up, it is often dubbed 'shrinkflation'. While official figures published on Wednesday showed inflation slowing to 2.8% in February, a breakdown of the headline figure shows food prices rose 3.3%. While price drops for milk, cheese and eggs brought some relief for shoppers, the cost of chocolate raced higher, up by a massive 16.5%. Chocolate has been getting more expensive for several years due to poor harvests in west Africa, in particular Ghana and Ivory Coast, where more than half of the world's cocoa beans are harvested. While confectionery firms say they have swallowed some of the cocoa price hit, the magnitude of the increase has resulted in higher prices on supermarket shelves. Looking at the weight of the eggs on sale, Which? found that the cost of some Easter eggs had increased by more than 50% a 100g compared with last year. At Lidl an 80g pouch of Terry's Chocolate Orange mini eggs was 99p in the run-up to Easter in 2024. However in 2025, it was not only more expensive, at £1.35, it had also shrunk to 70g. This equates to a rise of 56% per 100g. The bags on sale in other supermarkets had also shrunk but the price rise per 100g was less – 51% at Asda, 37% at Sainsbury's and 14% at Tesco. At Morrisons, Which? found a Cadbury Creme Egg 5 Pack Mixed Chocolate Box 200g had risen from £2.62 in the run-up to Easter 2024 to £4 this year. This worked out as a 53% price increase per 100g year on year, although the pack had stayed the same size. At Tesco, Which? found a Twix white chocolate Easter egg had increased from £5 to £6 in the run-up to Easter year on year, and had also shrunk from 316g to 258g, meaning the unit price (per 100g) had gone up by 47%. At Morrisons, Nestlé's KitKat Chunky milk chocolate Easter egg stayed at the same price in the run-up to Easter year on year at £1.50 but reduced in size from 129g to 110g, making it 17% more expensive per 100g. With shoppers getting less bang for their buck, Reena Sewraz, the senior money and shopping editor at Which?, said: 'If you don't want to pay more for less, it is worth shopping around,' and to be sure to compare the price per gram. Amber Sawyer, an analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said that for many commodities rising food inflation 'bears the fingerprints of climate change'. 'Chocolate price inflation is up from 14.1% last month to 16.5% this month. West Africa has been pummelled by climate impacts since 2023, with prices surging 400% last year,' she said. Mars Wrigley said that, due to rising manufacturing costs, it had adjusted some of its product sizes to minimise changes to its list price. Nestlé said significant increases in the cost of cocoa had made it much more expensive to manufacture its products and it has 'sometimes been necessary to make adjustments to the price or weight of some of our products'.
