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Back to Russian gas? Trump-wary EU has energy security dilemma
Back to Russian gas? Trump-wary EU has energy security dilemma

Yahoo

time14-04-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Back to Russian gas? Trump-wary EU has energy security dilemma

By America Hernandez, Riham Alkousaa and Marwa Rashad PARIS/BERLIN (Reuters) - More than three years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Europe's energy security is fragile. U.S. liquefied natural gas helped to plug the Russian supply gap in Europe during the 2022-2023 energy crisis. But now that President Donald Trump has rocked relationships with Europe established after World War Two, and turned to energy as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations, businesses are wary that reliance on the United States has become another vulnerability. Against this backdrop, executives at major EU firms have begun to say what would have been unthinkable a year ago: that importing some Russian gas, including from Russian state giant Gazprom, could be a good idea. That would require another major policy shift given that Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 made the European Union pledge to end Russian energy imports by 2027. Europe has limited options. Talks with LNG giant Qatar for more gas have stalled, and while the deployment of renewables has accelerated, the rate is not fast enough to allow the EU to feel secure. "If there is a reasonable peace in Ukraine, we could go back to flows of 60 billion cubic metres, maybe 70, annually, including LNG," Didier Holleaux, executive vice-president at France's Engie, told Reuters in an interview. The French state partly owns Engie, which used to be among the biggest buyers of Gazprom's gas. Holleaux said Russia could supply around 20-25% of EU needs, down from 40% before the war. The head of French oil major TotalEnergies, Patrick Pouyanne, has warned Europe against over-relying on U.S. gas. "We need to diversify, many routes, not over-rely on one or two," Pouyanne told Reuters. Total is a large exporter of U.S. LNG and also sells Russian LNG from private firm Novatek. "Europe will never go back to importing 150 billion cubic meters from Russia like before the war ... but I would bet maybe 70 bcm," Pouyanne added. GERMAN PIVOT France, which produces large amounts of nuclear power, already has one of the most diversified energy supplies in Europe. Germany relied heavily on cheap Russian gas to help drive its manufacturing sector until the Ukraine war and has fewer options. In Leuna Chemical Park, one of Germany's biggest chemical clusters hosting plants of Dow Chemical and Shell among others, some makers say Russian gas should return quickly. Russia used to cover 60% of local needs, mainly through the Nord Stream pipeline, which was blown up in 2022. "We are in a severe crisis and can't wait," said Christof Guenther, managing director of InfraLeuna, the operator of the park. He said the German chemical industry has cut jobs for five quarters in a row, something not seen for decades. "Reopening pipelines would reduce prices more than any current subsidy programmes," he said. "It's a taboo topic," Guenther added, saying many colleagues agreed on the need to go back to Russian gas. Almost a third of Germans voted for Russia-friendly parties in the February federal election. In the state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the east German region where the Nord Stream pipeline comes ashore after running from Russia under the Baltic Sea, 49% of Germans want a return to Russian gas supplies, a poll carried out by the Forsa institute found. "We need Russian gas, we need cheap energy - no matter where it comes from,' said Klaus Paur, managing director of Leuna-Harze, a mid-sized petrochemical maker at the Leuna Park. "We need Nord Stream 2 because we have to keep energy costs in check." The industry wants the federal government to find cheap energy, said Daniel Keller, economy minister for the state of Brandenburg - home to the Schwedt refinery, co-owned by Russian oil firm Rosneft but held in German government trusteeship. "We can imagine resuming the intake or transport of Russian oil after peace is established in Ukraine," Keller said. TRUMP FACTOR U.S. gas covered 16.7% of EU imports last year - behind Norway with 33.6% and Russia with 18.8%. Russia's share will drop below 10% this year after Ukraine shut pipelines. The remaining flows are mainly LNG from Novatek. The EU is preparing to buy more U.S. LNG as Trump wants Europe to lower its trade surplus with the United States. "For sure, we will need more LNG," EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic said last week. The tariff war has strengthened Europe's concern about reliance on U.S. gas, said Tatiana Mitrova, a research fellow at Columbia University's Centre on Global Energy Policy. "It's becoming increasingly difficult to regard U.S. LNG as a neutral commodity: at a certain point it might become a geopolitical tool," Mitrova added. If the trade war escalates, there is a small risk the United States could hold back on LNG exports, said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management. A senior EU diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, agreed, saying no one could rule out "that this leverage is used". In the event U.S. domestic gas prices surge because of rising industrial and AI demand, the U.S. could curtail exports to all markets, Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, said. In 2022, the EU set itself a non-binding goal to end Russian gas imports by 2027, but has twice delayed publishing plans on how. An EU Commission spokesperson declined to comment on the companies' comments. ARBITRATION Several EU firms have opened arbitration cases against Gazprom for non-delivery of gas following the Ukraine war. Courts awarded Germany's Uniper and Austria's OMV 14 billion euros and 230 million euros respectively. Germany's RWE has claimed 2 billion euros, while Engie and other firms have not disclosed their claim. Engie's Holleaux said Kyiv could allow Russia to send gas via Ukraine to meet arbitration repayments as a starting point of resuming contractual relationships with Gazprom. "You (Gazprom) want to come back to the market? Very good, but we won't sign a new contract if you don't pay the award,' Holleaux said. The return of Russian gas worries Maxim Timchenko, the chief of DTEK, Ukraine's private gas company, which hopes to import U.S. LNG into Ukraine's storage and export it to Europe. "It's hard to comment, being Ukrainian, but my hope is that European politicians learned their lessons dealing with Russia,' Timchenko said. Sign in to access your portfolio

IEA Director says Europe should replace Russian LNG with Qatari supply from 2027
IEA Director says Europe should replace Russian LNG with Qatari supply from 2027

Yahoo

time28-02-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

IEA Director says Europe should replace Russian LNG with Qatari supply from 2027

By America Hernandez LONDON (Reuters) - European countries should consider replacing liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from Russia with other sources beginning in 2027, the International Energy Agency director said on Tuesday. Fatih Birol was speaking at the International Energy Week conference in London. "Europe has been importing a lot of Russian LNG to help its economies," he said. "It may be high time to replace this with LNG from Qatari and other sources from 2027," Birol added. The global LNG market is expected to remain tight until 2027, when a wave of new projects in Qatar, the U.S. and elsewhere will bring fresh supply online. In 2024 the European Union increased its imports of Russian LNG to reach about 20% of total LNG imports, up from 6% in 2023. The United States remained the top LNG supplier, accounting for 45% the EU's LNG imports last year, according to EU data.

TotalEnergies signs 10-year LNG supply deal with India's GSPC
TotalEnergies signs 10-year LNG supply deal with India's GSPC

Zawya

time12-02-2025

  • Business
  • Zawya

TotalEnergies signs 10-year LNG supply deal with India's GSPC

French oil major TotalEnergies has signed a deal to supply the Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation with 400,000 metric tons of liquefied natural gas annually, beginning next year, the companies said on Wednesday. The deal with the Indian state-owned firm was announced on the sidelines of India Energy Week, and amounts to six LNG cargoes per year destined for mostly industrial customers. India, currently the world's fourth-largest LNG buyer, will have to double annual imports by the end of the decade to meet rising demand from rapid urbanisation and industrialisation, the International Energy Agency said this week. The Indian government has set a target for natural gas to reach 15% of the country's energy mix, up from 6.2% today. GSPC said in a joint statement that the contract with Total aligned with its strategy to build up a long-term LNG portfolio and become a leading gas trader in India. TotalEnergies has said the fast-growing Indian market is core to its growth strategy. It must also secure buyers to balance out the large amount of U.S. LNG it has contracted to purchase over the coming decade. Last year Total signed a raft of long-term deals with mostly Asian buyers, including one with the Indian Oil Corporation. (Reporting by America Hernandez in Paris, Editing by Louise Heavens and Jan Harvey)

TotalEnergies CEO doubles down on US LNG, downplays Trump tariff fears
TotalEnergies CEO doubles down on US LNG, downplays Trump tariff fears

Yahoo

time09-02-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

TotalEnergies CEO doubles down on US LNG, downplays Trump tariff fears

By America Hernandez LONDON (Reuters) - TotalEnergies will expand its investment in U.S. liquefied natural gas over the next decade as the French company seeks to cement its position as a major exporter of U.S. LNG, its CEO told Reuters on Wednesday, dismissing fears by American market watchers that more exports could boost U.S. gas prices. In an interview with Reuters, TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said he believed President Donald Trump's administration will implement pragmatic policies that will support U.S. energy production even as the world faces a new era of tariffs and trade wars. 'What they want is very simple: jobs and billions of dollars in the U.S,' he said. Since becoming CEO in 2014, Pouyanne has shifted Total's focus away from Russia to low-cost oil and gas production in the Middle East, Brazil, and the U.S., while also growing electricity and renewables. Total reported on Wednesday that it made $18.3 billion last year, as a strong LNG trading division offset weak oil refining profits. While rivals including Chevron, Exxon Mobil and BP invested heavily over the past decade in shale oil and gas production, the French firm has largely opted to invest in LNG projects that have given it access to more than 10 million metric tons of U.S. LNG annually to supply global customers. 'We have enough to grow the U.S. position for the next decade, and I'm sure we'll do it,' he said. Pouyanne, 61, said TotalEnergies could invest in expansion projects at its Cameron and Rio Grande LNG facilities on the Gulf of Mexico. 'We can extend Cameron LNG," he said, adding a fourth train, or production facility. "We can extend Rio Grande," he said, to include a fifth, sixth or seventh train. The U.S. is expected to nearly double its LNG export capacity by the end of the decade. Some economists have warned this could constrain domestic supplies and lead to higher energy bills for Americans, which could then prompt Trump to reconsider his stance on LNG exports. Pouyanne said that the U.S. has abundant gas supplies due to its vast shale reserves, but that the country needed to invest in pipeline infrastructure to deliver the gas to demand centers along the coasts. 'If you look at the history of the evolution of the U.S. gas price, the spikes are more linked to the lack of infrastructure than the lack of resources,' he said. EUROPEAN SUPPLY WORRIES Europe has become the main buyer of U.S. LNG since losing access to Russian supplies following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. While Total has become a major supplier of that American LNG, the company has also continued to supply Russian LNG to Europe from that country's Yamal LNG export facility. Pouyanne said Total's ability to source the superchilled gas from all geographies will help it minimize the risk to profits from tit-for-tat tariffs like those between China and the U.S. 'Fundamentally it's a political game, because China's purchase of U.S. energy is quite limited – in fact, they purchase from portfolio companies like us. What we will do is take more LNG from Qatar or from Australia, and the US LNG we will send to other customers,' the CEO said. Even so, Pouyanne cautioned Europe away from banning Russian LNG before 2027, saying the market would not be able to reroute 18 million tons of Russian supply until new projects start up worldwide. He instead urged the European Union to negotiate with Trump for guaranteed LNG, sign more long-term contracts and to reconsider its carbon taxes, which have driven up the cost of electricity.

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