5 days ago
Trump Set to Square Off With New German Chancellor Merz on Trade, Ukraine
President Donald Trump will meet Thursday with new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz for the first time since Merz swept into power vowing to distance Germany from the United States.
The centrist conservative German leader won an election in February with a promise to establish "independence" from Washington, signaling a potential break between the U.S. and one of its most important European allies.
"Merz will be trying to create a positive working relationship, but he probably won't just come into the Oval Office and endorse Donald Trump's view of the world," said Jeff Rathke, the president of the American-German Institute, a think tank in Washington.
The White House meeting between Trump and Merz will take place amid a backdrop of tensions between the U.S. and Europe over issues ranging from free speech to trade to Russia's war in Ukraine.
Berlin and Washington have maintained a close relationship for decades, with Germany — the largest economy in Europe — serving as a key ally on economic and national security issues.
Former President Joe Biden and Merz's predecessor, Olaf Scholz, maintained close ties even as they debated how to best aid Ukraine in its fight with Russia.
But Merz signaled a new approach after winning the February election and forming a coalition government with his center-right Christian Democratic Union party and Scholz's center-left Social Democrats.
Merz told the U.S. not to meddle in German domestic politics after Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio criticized Germany's intelligence agency for labeling the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) group a "right-wing extremist organization." Billionaire Trump ally Elon Musk had sparked an uproar in Germany by backing the AfD last year.
"That is our business. We decide that, not the American government," Merz told reporters after he was sworn in last month.
The episode followed Merz's election night promise to upend the transatlantic partnership. "My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the U.S.A," Merz said at the time.
"For Germany the partnership with the U.S. dating back to the Cold War has been a cornerstone of its policy," said Garret Martin, an expert on transatlantic relations at American University. "Real independence, depending on how you define it, would be a major shift."
Merz's approach will be tested on issues like aiding Ukraine in the war with Russia.
Trump is eager to end the conflict, but he has been far more critical of Ukraine than Russia since returning to the White House. More recently, the president's tone has shifted somewhat, marked by social media posts in which Trump wondered aloud "what the hell happened" to Vladimir Putin, who had gone "absolutely crazy."
It's also unclear if Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress will approve more military aid for Ukraine once the current tranche of funding runs out later this year.
In contrast, Germany and other EU nations have promised to continue aiding Ukraine even without a negotiated peace in sight. Germany is the third-largest provider of aid to Ukraine, trailing only the U.S. and European Union as a whole.
Merz has also joined other foreign leaders in criticizing Trump's trade war, a topic that will be front and center when the leaders meet at the White House. The administration is negotiating tariff deals with individual countries as well as the EU.
The German leader would be wise to avoid provoking Trump on tariffs, said Emily Kilcrease, the director of the Energy, Economics and Security Program at the Center for a New American Security.
"Germany and Europe can work with the U.S. to address some of the concerns that [Trump] has raised," Kilcrease said.
There are other areas where it may be easier for Trump and Merz to find common ground.
Earlier this year Germany changed its debt rules to ramp up defense spending, an initiative backed by Merz that was passed before he took office. Trump has long urged NATO members to meet their defense spending obligations and may welcome Merz's efforts to boost Germany's defense industry.
Under Merz, Germany has also taken steps to toughen its immigration system to reduce the number of asylum-seekers entering the country. The changes have been challenged in court, like many of Trump's own immigration policies in the U.S.
"Immigration is an area where I imagine Merz would try to placate and court Trump," Martin said.
The two leaders are scheduled to attend a lunch together Thursday and also meet separately with a small group of advisers. Analysts said not to expect the public fireworks that marked Trump's meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa.
"Merz is not coming here to pick a fight," Rathke said. Germany understands "there are major tectonic shifts underway on the international scene, but they also want to preserve the transatlantic relationship to the extent they can."
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