Latest news with #AmericanModel
Yahoo
04-03-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Strong thunderstorms could bring risk for tornadoes to DMV this week
The Brief A strong system is expected to bring thunderstorms to the D.C. region Wednesday. These strong storms could also put the region at a slight risk for developing tornadoes. The system will be developing in the middle of the country on Tuesday and move into the DMV from the west. WASHINGTON - Winter has officially come to an end as far as meteorologists are concerned. Despite spring not – officially – starting until March 20, meteorological winter ended on March 1. In terms of numbers, winter closed out nearly a degree below normal (-0.7°F below normal) which may not seem like much but was enough for our coldest winter in a decade here in D.C. Snowfall also came in just over an inch above average – solid winter for snow-lovers. Spring often means more wind energy atmospherically. Winter cold is generally retreating but occasionally fights its way southward into the United States. At the same time, the tropics are beginning to warm faster as the sun angle continues to rise. These temperature shifts lead to stronger jetstream winds, which can power powerful storm systems and lead to severe weather outbreaks. One of these storms will be developing in the middle of the country on Tuesday. It begins as early as the overnight hours on Monday when storms could really fire across parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and northern Texas. With high moisture coming off the Gulf clashing with considerably cooler and drier air wrapping around the system, coupled with an intensifying stream of strong low-level winds in the have a recipe for strong to severe thunderstorms that could produce tornadoes during the overnight hours. As the system continues to intensify through the day on Tuesday, the threat of severe weather and tornadoes will push eastward. Louisiana and Mississippi in particular are areas under the highest concern from the Storm Prediction Center. The dashes in the image above outline the region where forecasters are most concerned that EF-2 or greater tornadoes will be possible given the wind field. The threat continues to push eastward into the day on Wednesday, including much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. The D.C. and Baltimore region are currently under a "slight risk" with the greatest potential for some damaging wind with storms on Wednesday afternoon. While not as big a concern as what our friends to the south will be experiencing on Tuesday, the threat is there for some isolated tornadoes to spin up ahead or along of the main line on Wednesday afternoon and evening. We will be monitoring this closely in the days ahead. Winds could be quite gusty as the storm passes our region as well, especially Wednesday night into Thursday. Behind the storm system, temperatures will dip on Thursday and Friday. You may have seen some social media chatter about a potential winter storm this weekend. There is a single model (the American Model) which is suggesting that winter weather could be possible in the Northeast this weekend. However, as of Monday afternoon, it stands essentially alone in this solution. Most other models, including the European model, and The AI enhanced European and American models suggest that this system will not threaten out area with any winter weather. We will keep an eye on it out of precaution, however, and let you know if there are any changes to this line of thinking. As spring continues to draw near, warmer temperatures are inevitable. D.C.'s average high temperature by April 1 is 62°F, which is 10°F warmer than it is at the start of March. That being said, our region is prone to occasional swings back to winter-like temperatures right through the first half of April from time to time. An early indication that we may be in for more temperature swings later in the month is a feature known as a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event, or SSW for short. These events have been seen to be precursors to weather patterns over the Arctic region that push cold air southward, promoting periods of colder weather even into early to middle spring. One of these events is forecast for the stratosphere over the North Pole through the first half of the month, which suggests that another push of colder air cold be waiting later in March. We will continue to keep you updated with the forecast and any severe weather alerts through the course of this week.
Yahoo
06-02-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Warming through the weekend
New Mexico continues to heat up this afternoon. Above average temperatures expected to continue through early next week. A backdoor cold front moved through northeastern New Mexico last night. This front knocked down temperatures in the northeast this afternoon. Clayton is forecasted to be nearly 10 degrees cooler today than yesterday. Despite this cooldown, the northeast is still well above seasonable averages. As is the rest of New Mexico this afternoon. Forecast Continues Below Community: Sandia Peak Ski Area is temporarily closing Crime: Albuquerque business takes matters into their own hands when it comes to shoplifters Podcast: What's Behind The Dip In Fentanyl Overdose Deaths? Investigation: 'We held people accountable': Chief takes credit for ending DWI scheme within APD Temperatures across the state will continue to warm up even further on Friday. Winds will also pick up in the northeast throughout the day on Friday. Wind gusts in the northeast will begin around 20 mph on Friday morning. By the afternoon gusts could reach upwards of 40 mph. A combination of the warm temperatures, strong winds, and dry air is leading to an elevated fire risk for portions of northeast New Mexico. The National Weather Service has issued a Fire Watch for portions of northeast New Mexico. This Watch will go into effect on Friday February 7th. On Saturday, the upper level westerly winds will increase over New Mexico. This will result in increased wind gusts at the surface. Temperatures across most of the state will also remain on the warm side for this time of year. Also on Saturday, a backdoor front will begin to move its way into New Mexico. The front will cool off temperatures in the northeast. The larger cooldown will come Sunday and into early next week. The backdoor cold front will push further into New Mexico Saturday night. Drawing in cooler air with it. The cooler air will affect temperatures across the state starting Sunday. Early next week an upper air disturbance will move across northern New Mexico. This disturbance will bring more locally windy conditions to the surface. Additionally, the disturbance could bring precipitation back to New Mexico. A wintry mix will likely begin in the northern mountains on Monday. Rain for the rest of the state becomes more uncertain. The European Model has rain chances being brought to central New Mexico on Tuesday. Whereas the American Model doesn't bring rain until Wednesday of next week. As this forecast is nearly a week out, it could change. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
