Latest news with #AmlanJyotiDas
News18
3 days ago
- Business
- News18
Nomura Boosts Nifty March 2026 Target To 26,140; Recommends Key Stock Picks
Last Updated: Nomura observed that, despite overall earnings estimate reductions, India's Q4 season saw more companies outperform than underperform Nifty Target For March 2026: Nomura India has raised its Nifty target for March 2026 to 26,140, citing supportive macroeconomic factors that continue to bolster equity valuations, even as risks to corporate earnings linger. The Japanese brokerage noted that positive domestic macros, such as falling bond yields and robust domestic inflows, are underpinning the market's performance. Nomura's new target represents about a 6% upside from current levels. Why the Upgrade? 'Given the favorable macro backdrop and supportive valuations, we have raised the target valuation multiple to 21x (up from 19.5x)," said Saion Mukherjee and Amlan Jyoti Das, Nomura research analysts, in a note. 'Applying this to FY27 forward earnings, we arrive at a new Nifty target of 26,140 (up from 24,970)." They believe the combination of lower bond yields, steady domestic investor flows, and resilient performance of Indian equities has strengthened market sentiment, despite earnings downgrades. Nomura flagged a deceleration in corporate earnings growth. Reviewing Q4FY25 results from 223 companies (including the BSE 200), it noted that while aggregate profit after tax rose 10% YoY—6% ahead of consensus—earnings expectations for FY26 and FY27 have been trimmed. Consensus estimates for FY26 and FY27 have been cut by 2.3% and 1.4%, respectively, since March 2025. Compared to September 2024, the downgrades are steeper at 7.6% and 6.3%. Nomura expects further 4-8% earnings cuts for FY27. Key risks include a sluggish investment cycle, fiscal consolidation, weak household savings, and tepid export demand—although some of these pressures may be mitigated by softer oil prices, easing inflation, and falling interest rates. Indian equities are trading at about 20.5x one-year forward earnings, near the top of their three-year range. Yet, Nomura said the earnings yield-to-bond yield spread remains in a comfortable zone, supporting the positive market outlook. 'Even with global trade uncertainties and policy risks, the equity risk premium remains low," Nomura said. Sector Preferences Tilt to Domestic Themes Nomura now favors domestic-facing sectors and consumption themes over export-led and investment-heavy sectors. 'We prefer domestic-focused sectors due to global uncertainties. Consumption themes, driven by low inflation, potential rate cuts, and fiscal support like income tax reductions, appear promising," the report said. The brokerage is overweight on financials, consumer staples, autos, discretionary spending, oil and gas, power, telecom, internet, and real estate. It also favours select domestic healthcare plays and stocks linked to the supply-chain relocation trend, particularly in autos, chemicals, and electronics. Sector preferences tilt to domestic plays, consumption. Nomura has shifted its sectoral bias in favour of domestic-oriented stocks and consumption themes over export-led and investment-driven sectors. 'We prefer domestic-focused sectors to exporters given global uncertainties. Within that, consumption themes look more promising due to tailwinds from low inflation, rate cuts, and fiscal support such as income tax reductions," the report said. The brokerage is overweight on financials, consumer staples, autos, discretionary spending, oil and gas, power, telecom, internet, and real estate. It also favours select domestic healthcare plays and stocks linked to the supply-chain relocation trend, particularly in autos, chemicals, and electronics. Conversely, Nomura remains cautious on IT services, industrials, cement, and metals—sectors tied to capital expenditure cycles and global demand. It also flagged US tariff risks as a near-term headwind for Indian pharma exports, though it sees any correction as a buying opportunity. 'In our view, the investment cycle may be delayed due to global uncertainty," it said. 'But selective opportunities still exist, particularly in power sector-related industrials." Top Stock Ideas: What's In, What's Out? Among largecaps, Nomura's preferred buys include ICICI Bank, SBI, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, Godrej Consumer, Mahindra & Mahindra, CG Power, Reliance Industries, and Tata Power. For small and midcaps, Marico, Dixon, Uno Minda, Gland Pharma, Lupin, MedPlus, Oberoi Realty, and Dr Lal Pathlabs feature prominently. Portfolio Changes top videos View all Removed: Federal Bank (due to earnings pressure and margin concerns), Bharat Electronics (after sharp rally) Added: Hindustan Aeronautics (order visibility), Jindal Steel & Power (new capacity upside), Oberoi Realty (favorable project pipeline) IT least preferred: L&T Technology Services (weaker visibility in engineering R&D amid tariff risks) Metals switch: Dropped JSW Steel (litigation concerns) Nomura believes that while the investment cycle might be delayed due to global volatility, selective opportunities—especially in power sector-linked industrials—still exist. Stay updated with all the latest news on the Stock Market, including market trends, Sensex and Nifty updates, top gainers and losers, and expert analysis. Get real-time insights, financial reports, and investment strategies—only on News18. tags : Nifty Location : New Delhi, India, India First Published: June 02, 2025, 13:49 IST News business » markets Nomura Boosts Nifty March 2026 Target To 26,140; Recommends Key Stock Picks
&w=3840&q=100)
Business Standard
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Foreign brokerages stay cautious on India stock market; check strategy here
Foreign brokerages remain cautious on the road ahead for the Indian equity markets. Though analysts at Nomura have revised their March 2026 Nifty target to 26,140 levels from the earlier 24,970, but the upside from the current levels is a modest 6 per cent. BofA Securities, on the other hand, has not made any change to its year-end Nifty target. The Nifty, Nomura said, is currently trading at 20.5x one-year forward earnings, which is near the high-end of its trading range over the past three years. 'However, the favorable spread between earnings yield and bond yield at -1.4 per cent – which is at the high end of the range that prevailed over the past four years – is comforting. Based on 21x price to earnings (P/E) on FY27F earnings, we arrive at our March 2026 Nifty target of 26,140,' wrote Saion Mukherjee, managing director and head of equity research for India at Nomura in a recent coauthored note with Amlan Jyoti Das. ALSO READ: Stock Market LIVE: Markets trim losses; Sensex down 250 pts, Nifty near 24,700; PSBs, realty up 2% Those at BofA Securities, too, remain cautious on the markets in the near term led by weakening global macro. The ongoing monetary stimulus, BofA said, would help India revive its gross domestic product (GDP) / capex / consumption growth, but see a shallow revival, and hence remain conservative on GDP growth at 6.3 per cent versus Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projection of 6.5 per cent in fiscal 2025-26 (FY26). 'Given the recent rally, we see no upside to our Nifty year-end target of 25,000. Near-term, incrementally, we see seven emerging risks that make us cautious on Nifty / large-caps, and we continue to stay bearish on the broader markets,' wrote Amish Shah, India equity strategist at BofA Securities in a recent coauthored note. The markets, BofA Securities said, are now fully pricing in an imminent India-US trade deal, leading to India being a key beneficiary of shifting global supply chains. However, any potential global slowdown amidst ongoing trade war is not priced in yet. Flows to the equity markets - both domestic and foreign, too, remain at risk, BofA said. While DII flows could remain volatile in the months ahead and may even moderate. Domestic inflows, data suggests, peaked at $8.6 billion in October 2024 and have seen moderation since then to $6.1 billion in April 2025. 'May flows stand at $3.5 billion versus $13.5 billion outflows for January - March 2025. However, with recent market rally, relative return potential for Nifty has become unattractive for FIIs versus US treasuries (4.3 per cent) and equity risk premium. Thus, we see risk to FII flows going forward,' Shah wrote. As a strategy, Nomura prefers domestic-focused sectors to exporters given the global uncertainties, and prefer consumption to investment themes. The investment cycle, Nomura said, is likely to be delayed because of global uncertainties. Supply-chain relocation themes such as autos, pharmaceuticals/chemicals and electronic segments are their preferred sectors. Financials, consumer staples, autos, discretionary, oil and gas, power, telecom, internet, real estate and select domestic healthcare plays are some of their other top bets. 'Within industrials, we are constructive on companies that are play on investment in the power sector. We are cautious on export sectors and capex themes. These include IT services, industrials, cement, and metals. On pharma, ensuing US tariffs present a near-term headwind, but we expect the impact to be passed on and hence a correction may be a buying opportunity,' Mukherjee wrote.
&w=3840&q=100)
Business Standard
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Nomura raises Nifty March 2026 target to 26,140 on supportive macros
Nomura on Nifty50: Japan-based brokerage firm Nomura has raised its Nifty50 target for March 2026 to 26,140, up from its previous projection of 24,970, citing favourable domestic macroeconomic conditions and stable equity valuations despite persistent risks to corporate earnings growth. The revised target implies a potential upside of about 6 per cent from current levels. Nomura's analysts believe the market is being supported by falling bond yields, steady domestic inflows, and relatively resilient performance in Indian equities, even as earnings estimates for FY26 and FY27 have been cut. 'We assess the fair value range for the Nifty at 18-24x one-year forward earnings, which implies upside/downside of 24 per cent/12 per cent from current levels. Assuming benign risk premium and low yields, we raise the target valuation multiple to 21x (from 19.5x previously),' Saion Mukherjee and Amlan Jyoti Das, research analysts at Nomura said, in a note. 'Based on 21x P/E on FY27F earnings, we arrive at our March 2026 Nifty target of 26,140 (versus 24,970 previously), suggesting potential upside of 6 per cent from current levels.' Earnings cuts weigh on outlook Despite an earnings season with more beats than misses, Nomura analysts flagged a deceleration in overall growth. The brokerage reviewed Q4FY25 results from 223 companies (including the BSE 200 and its coverage universe), where aggregate profit after tax rose 10 per cent Y-o-Y—6 per cent ahead of consensus—but earnings expectations continue to trend lower. Consensus estimates for FY26 and FY27 earnings have been revised down by 2.3 per cent and 1.4 per cent, respectively, since March 2025. Compared to September 2024, the downgrades are deeper—7.6 per cent and 6.3 per cent, respectively. Nomura expects further earnings cuts of 4–8 per cent for FY27. 'The corporate earnings-to-GDP ratio is already close to its peak,' Nomura noted. 'Significant outperformance to nominal GDP growth appears unlikely in the near term.' Risks to earnings include a weak investment cycle, fiscal consolidation, reduced household financial savings, and sluggish export demand. However, these pressures may be partially offset by softer oil prices, easing inflation, and declining interest rates. Valuation holds up amid global volatility Indian equities are trading at 20.5x one-year forward earnings, near the upper end of their three-year range. Still, the earnings yield to bond yield spread of -1.4 per cent remains within a comfortable band, according to Nomura. 'The favourable spread is comforting and supports our positive view on market valuation,' analysts at Nomura said. 'Even with trade-related global uncertainties and policy risks, equity risk premiums remain low.' Sector preferences tilt to domestic plays, consumption Nomura has shifted its sectoral bias in favour of domestic-oriented stocks and consumption themes over export-led and investment-driven sectors. 'We prefer domestic-focused sectors to exporters given global uncertainties. Within that, consumption themes look more promising due to tailwinds from low inflation, rate cuts, and fiscal support such as income tax reductions,' the report said. The brokerage is overweight on financials, consumer staples, autos, discretionary spending, oil and gas, power, telecom, internet, and real estate. It also favours select domestic healthcare plays and stocks linked to the supply-chain relocation trend—particularly in autos, chemicals, and electronics. Conversely, Nomura remains cautious on IT services, industrials, cement, and metals—sectors tied to capital expenditure cycles and global demand. It also flagged US tariff risks as a near-term headwind for Indian pharma exports, though it sees any correction as a buying opportunity. 'In our view, the investment cycle may be delayed due to global uncertainty,' it said. 'But selective opportunities still exist, particularly in power sector-related industrials.'
&w=3840&q=100)
Business Standard
21-04-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Nifty above 200-DMA after 4 months; is this the start of a new bull-run?
The NSE Nifty 50 index crossed the long-term 200-Daily Moving Average (200-DMA) in intra-day deals on Monday, for the first-time in nearly four months – since the breakdown on January 6, 2025. The Nifty hit a high of 24,188 levels in intra-day deals on Monday, rising 1.4 per cent, or 332 points. The Nifty 50 has surged over 11 per cent, or 2,400 points, in the last eight trading sessions. Amid this rally, the Nifty not only conquered its short-and-medium term moving averages, i.e. the 20- and 100-DMA at 23,170 and 23,400 respectively, but also surpassed its long-term (200-DMA) average on April 21, which now stands at 24,051. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART In general, the 200-DMA acts as one of the key indicators in determining a positive and negative trend. Stocks or indices trading above the long-term moving average are considered as positive, and vice versa. The recent rally in the markets, analysts believe, could also be driven by a possibility of a trade deal between India and the US, and India is currently better prepared to gain from supply chain relocation. Those at Nomura, for instance, believe that the worst of tariffs and trade war is over, except for the announcement on sector-specific tariffs such as pharmaceuticals. The news flow on progress on bilateral trade agreements and even an attempt for US-China trade negotiation, they suggest, can be incremental positives. "We expect the Nifty to trade in the range of 17-20x one-year forward earnings, and reset March 2026 Nifty target at 24,970 based on 19.5x FY27F Nifty EPS of Rs 1,280. In case of a stable risk environment, we expect FII flows to be supportive after the intense sell-off in the past six months. Assuming a valuation range of 17-20x, we expect market return of -9% to +7% over the next one year," wrote Saion Mukherjee, managing director and head of equity research for India at Nomura in a recent co-authored note with Amlan Jyoti Das. Out of the 50 Nifty constituents, 21 are trading above the respective 200-DMAs, including HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, State Bank of India (SBI), Eicher Motors, Nestle India and Power Grid Corporation. The rally in financial stocks has mostly been led by HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank that announced their respective March 2025 (Q4-FY25) results last week. The Nifty Bank index, a gauge of the performance of bank stocks on the NSE, move up 2 per cent in intraday deals and surpassed its previous high of 54,467.35 levels hit on September 26, 2024, data shows. READ HERE Meanwhile, from a technical perspective, Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities suggests that the Nifty has formed a bullish candle on the weekly chart, and the market is maintaining an uptrend continuation formation. The investing strategy, he said, should be to buy between 23,650 and 23,550 levels, with a stop loss at 23,500 on a closing basis. 'The overall market texture is bullish. For traders, the levels of 23,500 (Nifty) / 77,400 (Sensex) would act as key support zones, while resistance zones are between 24,000/79,000 and 24,200/79,600. However, if the market moves below 23,500/77,400, the sentiment could change and the indices may fall to 23,350/76,900 or 23,200/76,500, where the market has left a bullish gap,' Chouhan suggests.
