Latest news with #Amotiv
Yahoo
03-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Are Investors Undervaluing Amotiv Limited (ASX:AOV) By 43%?
The projected fair value for Amotiv is AU$13.70 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Amotiv's AU$7.87 share price signals that it might be 43% undervalued Our fair value estimate is 24% higher than Amotiv's analyst price target of AU$11.05 Does the June share price for Amotiv Limited (ASX:AOV) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow. We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you. This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality. We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate: 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF (A$, Millions) AU$99.5m AU$123.1m AU$138.1m AU$124.6m AU$111.0m AU$108.9m AU$108.4m AU$109.0m AU$110.4m AU$112.3m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x6 Analyst x7 Analyst x5 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Est @ -1.93% Est @ -0.46% Est @ 0.56% Est @ 1.28% Est @ 1.78% Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.9% AU$92.2 AU$106 AU$110 AU$91.8 AU$75.8 AU$68.9 AU$63.5 AU$59.2 AU$55.5 AU$52.4 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$775m The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.9%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$112m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (7.9%– 2.9%) = AU$2.3b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$2.3b÷ ( 1 + 7.9%)10= AU$1.1b The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$1.9b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of AU$7.9, the company appears quite good value at a 43% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out. We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Amotiv as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.149. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. Check out our latest analysis for Amotiv Strength Debt is not viewed as a risk. Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows. Weakness Earnings declined over the past year. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Auto Components market. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market. Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value. Threat Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the Australian market. Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Amotiv, we've compiled three essential aspects you should consider: Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Amotiv . Future Earnings: How does AOV's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ASX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. 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Yahoo
07-04-2025
- Automotive
- Yahoo
3 Undervalued Small Caps In Asian Markets With Recent Insider Action
Amidst heightened global trade tensions and economic uncertainty, Asian markets have faced significant volatility, with small-cap stocks particularly impacted by recent tariff announcements and broader market sentiment. Despite these challenges, certain small-cap companies in Asia are drawing attention due to their potential value and recent insider activity, which can be indicative of confidence in the company's prospects even during turbulent times. Name PE PS Discount to Fair Value Value Rating Security Bank 4.6x 1.1x 41.59% ★★★★★★ New Hope 5.1x 1.5x 40.55% ★★★★★★ Viva Energy Group NA 0.1x 40.82% ★★★★★☆ Puregold Price Club 8.3x 0.3x 14.30% ★★★★☆☆ Dicker Data 17.8x 0.6x -26.54% ★★★★☆☆ PWR Holdings 33.2x 4.6x 28.08% ★★★☆☆☆ BSP Financial Group 7.6x 2.7x 0.52% ★★★☆☆☆ Zip Co NA 1.6x -23.45% ★★★☆☆☆ Integral Diagnostics 140.5x 1.6x 46.76% ★★★☆☆☆ Manawa Energy NA 2.6x 44.23% ★★★☆☆☆ Click here to see the full list of 60 stocks from our Undervalued Asian Small Caps With Insider Buying screener. Let's dive into some prime choices out of from the screener. Simply Wall St Value Rating: ★★★★★★ Overview: Amotiv is a company that specializes in the production and distribution of automotive components, including powertrain and undercar systems, lighting power and electrical products, as well as 4WD accessories and trailering equipment, with a market capitalization of A$2.45 billion. Operations: Amotiv's revenue is primarily derived from three segments: Powertrain & Undercar, Lighting Power & Electrical, and 4WD Accessories & Trailering. The company has experienced fluctuations in its gross profit margin, which reached a peak of 57.13% in December 2016 and was at 43.92% by December 2024. Operating expenses have shown an upward trend over the years, contributing to variations in net income margins across different periods. PE: 11.4x Amotiv, a company in the automotive industry, recently reported half-year sales of A$503.7 million, up from A$492.6 million the previous year. However, net income declined to A$33 million from A$50.2 million. Despite this dip, insider confidence is evident with recent share purchases by executives between January and March 2025. The appointment of experienced director Raelene Murphy as Chair of the Audit Committee may enhance governance and strategic oversight as Amotiv navigates its growth trajectory with projected earnings growth at 13.66% annually. Take a closer look at Amotiv's potential here in our valuation report. Evaluate Amotiv's historical performance by accessing our past performance report. Simply Wall St Value Rating: ★★★☆☆☆ Overview: Pantoro is a gold exploration and production company focused on the Norseman Gold Project, with a market cap of A$289.11 million. Operations: Pantoro generates revenue primarily from the Norseman Gold Project, with recent figures indicating A$289.11 million in revenue. The company's cost structure includes significant costs of goods sold (COGS) at A$287.05 million, resulting in a gross profit margin of 0.71%. Operating expenses and non-operating expenses are notable, impacting net income negatively to -A$26.89 million with a net income margin of -9.30%. PE: -36.5x Pantoro, an Australian gold producer, recently added to the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries and 300 Indexes, showcases potential growth with a forecasted earnings increase of 61.46% annually. Their half-year results reported A$153.43 million in sales and a net income turnaround from a loss to A$6.62 million. Production rose by 30%, reaching over 40,000 ounces of gold at an ASIC of A$2,377 per ounce. Insider confidence is evident through recent stock purchases, indicating belief in future prospects despite reliance on external funding sources for liabilities. Click here and access our complete valuation analysis report to understand the dynamics of Pantoro. Examine Pantoro's past performance report to understand how it has performed in the past. Simply Wall St Value Rating: ★★★☆☆☆ Overview: Manawa Energy is a company focused on generating and providing electricity, with a market capitalization of NZ$1.68 billion. Operations: The primary revenue stream for Manawa Energy comes from generating and providing electricity, with the latest reported revenue at NZ$561.11 million. The company's cost of goods sold (COGS) is NZ$364.73 million, resulting in a gross profit of NZ$196.38 million and a gross profit margin of 34.99%. Operating expenses are significant, totaling NZ$107.11 million, along with non-operating expenses at NZ$125.44 million, impacting the net income which stands at -NZ$36.17 million for the period ending September 30, 2024. PE: -40.1x Manawa Energy, a smaller player in Asia's energy sector, showcases potential despite its high debt levels. With earnings projected to grow by 31.91% annually, the company attracts attention for its growth prospects. Insider confidence is evident as insiders have recently purchased shares, indicating belief in future performance. Although reliant on external borrowing for funding, this dynamic could shift with strategic financial management and market opportunities. Unlock comprehensive insights into our analysis of Manawa Energy stock in this valuation report. Gain insights into Manawa Energy's historical performance by reviewing our past performance report. Discover the full array of 60 Undervalued Asian Small Caps With Insider Buying right here. Already own these companies? Link your portfolio to Simply Wall St and get alerts on any new warning signs to your stocks. Streamline your investment strategy with Simply Wall St's app for free and benefit from extensive research on stocks across all corners of the world. Explore high-performing small cap companies that haven't yet garnered significant analyst attention. Fuel your portfolio with companies showing strong growth potential, backed by optimistic outlooks both from analysts and management. Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Companies discussed in this article include ASX:AOV ASX:PNR and NZSE:MNW. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@ Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
04-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Amotiv Limited's (ASX:AOV) Stock Has Shown Weakness Lately But Financial Prospects Look Decent: Is The Market Wrong?
It is hard to get excited after looking at Amotiv's (ASX:AOV) recent performance, when its stock has declined 31% over the past three months. But if you pay close attention, you might find that its key financial indicators look quite decent, which could mean that the stock could potentially rise in the long-term given how markets usually reward more resilient long-term fundamentals. Specifically, we decided to study Amotiv's ROE in this article. ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits. We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free. The formula for ROE is: Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Amotiv is: 8.7% = AU$81m ÷ AU$932m (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024). The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. That means that for every A$1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated A$0.09 in profit. Check out our latest analysis for Amotiv Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics. When you first look at it, Amotiv's ROE doesn't look that attractive. A quick further study shows that the company's ROE doesn't compare favorably to the industry average of 11% either. Although, we can see that Amotiv saw a modest net income growth of 17% over the past five years. We reckon that there could be other factors at play here. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place. As a next step, we compared Amotiv's net income growth with the industry, and pleasingly, we found that the growth seen by the company is higher than the average industry growth of 8.6%. Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is AOV fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know. Amotiv has a significant three-year median payout ratio of 70%, meaning that it is left with only 30% to reinvest into its business. This implies that the company has been able to achieve decent earnings growth despite returning most of its profits to shareholders. Besides, Amotiv has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to drop to 52% over the next three years. The fact that the company's ROE is expected to rise to 12% over the same period is explained by the drop in the payout ratio. Overall, we feel that Amotiv certainly does have some positive factors to consider. That is, quite an impressive growth in earnings. However, the low profit retention means that the company's earnings growth could have been higher, had it been reinvesting a higher portion of its profits. On studying current analyst estimates, we found that analysts expect the company to continue its recent growth streak. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Sign in to access your portfolio
Wall Street Journal
03-04-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Australia Shares Shaping to Extend Tariff-Driven Drop
2233 GMT – Australia's S&P/ASX 200 looks set for another substantial decline after the Trump administration's tariff announcement pushed U.S. equities to their worst day in more than five years. ASX futures are down by 1.2% ahead of Friday's session, pointing to a further drop for the benchmark index on top of Thursday's 0.9% slide. The ASX 200 is down by 1.5% so far this week, with shares of U.S.-exposed companies leading the decline. Ahead of the open, automotive-accessory provider Amotiv said it was considering options including re-sourcing supply or raising prices. (
Yahoo
25-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
ASX Undervalued Small Caps With Insider Buying In Australia
The Australian market has experienced a downturn recently, with consumer discretionary stocks taking a significant hit and broader sentiment impacted by external factors such as U.S. trade policies. In this challenging environment, identifying small-cap stocks that have potential for growth often involves looking at companies where insiders are buying shares, suggesting confidence in their future prospects despite current market volatility. Name PE PS Discount to Fair Value Value Rating Amotiv 17.1x 1.4x 48.47% ★★★★★★ Abacus Storage King 7.8x 7.0x 21.38% ★★★★★☆ Autosports Group 9.8x 0.1x 31.61% ★★★★★☆ Abacus Group NA 4.6x 25.47% ★★★★★☆ Collins Foods 18.9x 0.6x 0.90% ★★★★☆☆ Schaffer 9.5x 1.3x 29.05% ★★★★☆☆ Dicker Data 19.4x 0.7x -68.16% ★★★☆☆☆ Iluka Resources 8.1x 1.6x -44.05% ★★★☆☆☆ Cromwell Property Group NA 5.1x 19.28% ★★★☆☆☆ Tabcorp Holdings NA 0.6x -36.35% ★★★☆☆☆ Click here to see the full list of 16 stocks from our Undervalued ASX Small Caps With Insider Buying screener. Let's dive into some prime choices out of from the screener. Simply Wall St Value Rating: ★★★★☆☆ Overview: Charter Hall Retail REIT is an Australian real estate investment trust specializing in convenience-based retail properties, with a market capitalization of A$2.37 billion. Operations: The primary revenue streams are from Convenience Shopping Centre Retail and Convenience Net Lease Retail, contributing A$223.6 million and A$52 million, respectively. Over recent periods, the net income margin showed significant fluctuations, peaking at 1.33% in June 2022 before declining to -0.58% in December 2023 and then recovering to 0.57% by December 2024. Operating expenses have remained relatively low compared to gross profit, with a notable increase in non-operating expenses impacting net income significantly during some periods. PE: 11.8x Charter Hall Retail REIT, a smaller player in the Australian market, recently reaffirmed its earnings and distribution guidance for fiscal year 2025, projecting operating earnings of A$0.254 per unit. Despite a drop in sales to A$95.5 million for the half-year ending December 31, 2024, revenue rose to A$193 million from A$149.5 million the previous year. The company reported net income of A$108.6 million compared to a loss previously recorded, showcasing improved financial health amidst high-risk external funding sources and insider confidence through share purchases last quarter signals potential growth prospects ahead. Unlock comprehensive insights into our analysis of Charter Hall Retail REIT stock in this valuation report. Learn about Charter Hall Retail REIT's historical performance. Simply Wall St Value Rating: ★★★☆☆☆ Overview: Dicker Data is a wholesale distributor specializing in computer peripherals with a market capitalization of A$2.35 billion. Operations: The company's revenue primarily comes from wholesale computer peripherals, with recent figures showing A$2.24 billion in revenue. The gross profit margin has shown an upward trend, reaching 14.54% as of the latest period. Operating expenses have consistently risen alongside revenue growth, reflecting investment in business operations and infrastructure. PE: 19.4x Dicker Data, a key player in Australia's tech distribution sector, stands out for its steady financial footing despite relying entirely on external borrowing. With earnings projected to rise by 9.72% annually, the company demonstrates potential for growth. Insider confidence is evident with recent share purchases over the past year, signaling management's faith in future prospects. A dividend of A$0.11 per share was declared for Q4 2024, reinforcing its commitment to shareholder returns amidst ongoing market challenges. Dive into the specifics of Dicker Data here with our thorough valuation report. Gain insights into Dicker Data's historical performance by reviewing our past performance report. Simply Wall St Value Rating: ★★★☆☆☆ Overview: Iluka Resources is a company engaged in the exploration, project development, operation, and marketing of mineral sands with a market capitalization of approximately A$4.92 billion. Operations: Revenue primarily stems from Mineral Sands, with a recent gross profit margin of 56.64%. Cost of goods sold (COGS) is a significant expense, impacting overall profitability. Operating expenses include notable allocations to depreciation and amortization, sales and marketing, and general administrative costs. Net income margin has shown fluctuations over the periods analyzed. PE: 8.1x Iluka Resources, a small player in the Australian market, recently reported annual sales of A$1.17 billion and net income of A$231.3 million for 2024, reflecting a decline from the previous year. Despite this, insider confidence is evident with recent share purchases indicating potential value recognition within the company. The announcement of a fully franked dividend and positive government funding discussions for their Eneabba rare earths refinery could bolster future growth prospects amidst leadership changes following Rob Cole's retirement as Chair. Click to explore a detailed breakdown of our findings in Iluka Resources' valuation report. Gain insights into Iluka Resources' past trends and performance with our Past report. Unlock more gems! Our Undervalued ASX Small Caps With Insider Buying screener has unearthed 13 more companies for you to here to unveil our expertly curated list of 16 Undervalued ASX Small Caps With Insider Buying. Are you invested in these stocks already? Keep abreast of every twist and turn by setting up a portfolio with Simply Wall St, where we make it simple for investors like you to stay informed and proactive. Elevate your portfolio with Simply Wall St, the ultimate app for investors seeking global market coverage. Explore high-performing small cap companies that haven't yet garnered significant analyst attention. Fuel your portfolio with companies showing strong growth potential, backed by optimistic outlooks both from analysts and management. Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Companies discussed in this article include ASX:CQR ASX:DDR and ASX:ILU. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@
