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Six months after fall of Assad, Syrians are cautiously optimistic about future under Al Shara
Six months after the downfall of Bashar Al Assad, Syria's new leader Ahmad Al Shara has established himself on the global stage and is pushing ahead with efforts to rebuild a fractured nation.
After 13 years of civil war, Mr Al Shara led a rebel assault against the Assad regime and within 12 days ousted the president on December 8, without much of a fight. The leader of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, a former Al Qaeda affiliate, Mr Al Shara now serves as Syria's President and is at the head of a transitional government.
A cabinet was formed in March and includes ministers from Syria's diverse groups, with the aim of fostering national reconciliation. Members of the new government have participated in major international conferences and Mr Al Shara has been in the global spotlight for the past six months. Last week, he concluded his ninth international trip – and fourth to the Gulf – with a state visit to Kuwait.
Much of the change in the country has been seen as positive, prompting a first wave of Syrians to return from neighbouring countries. 'When the regime finally fell, I took the first flight to Beirut, and from there I returned to Syria,' said Amr Alhamad, a Syrian lawyer who has launched a media consultancy project in his homeland.
'Yes, we won. It was magnificent. Entering Damascus felt like I could finally breathe again."
Domestic challenges
While many celebrated the removal of the authoritarian Assad regime, Syrians remain cautiously optimistic about the future given Mr Al Shara's 'strong past', as US President Donald Trump described it, recent outbreaks of sectarian violence and Israeli interference.
Mr Al Assad is an Alawite and, since his downfall, the minority community has come under repeated attack. Many of its members regard the ascendancy of HTS as a threat to the existence of the community, which held power in Syria from 1963 until the Assad regime was toppled. Mr Al Shara has appointed a committee to investigate the bloodshed in the Alawites' coastal heartland, but he has blamed members of the former regime for the violence.
One Alawite in the Kurdish region of Iraq, who requested anonymity over fear of reprisals, said he was waiting for the situation to improve and did not yet feel it was safe to return to Syria. 'We don't trust them and we are waiting for things to be better,' he said of the new government.
He initially left Syria to avoid forced military conscription under the Assad regime and, while he was not politically active, he was still worried about becoming a target as an Alawite.
Tensions also surged after a manipulated recording falsely claimed a Druze cleric had insulted Islam. The fake recording triggered sectarian violence, with militants attacking Druze towns near Damascus.
Israel then launched air strikes near the Syrian presidential palace in the capital, which it said was a warning to the authorities not to harm the Druze minority. The strikes were another reminder of the challenges ahead for Syria, with regard to minorities, as well as Israeli interference.
Over the past six months, Israel has pushed further into southern Syria and has waged a campaign of aerial bombardment.
While the new Syrian authorities have enjoyed warmer ties with the West, Israel remains suspicious. Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani said Israeli strikes on Syria this week, launched after rockets were fired towards Israel, were aimed at destabilising the country.
The Israeli attack took place after Mr Al Shara said last month that his government was holding indirect talks with Israel to bring an end to its strikes on Syria.
Conflict is also continuing in Kurdish-majority areas of north-eastern Syria, where Turkish forces and proxies allied to Ankara clash with the Syrian Democratic Forces. Although a deal was signed by Mr Al Shara and SDF chief Mazloum Abdi on March 10 to integrate the SDF into Syria's state institutions, there is still work to do to reconcile with the Kurds.
Ilham Ahmed, co-chairman of foreign affairs for the SDF's political wing, the Syrian Democratic Council, told The National in April that there were 'red lines' when it came to the country's constitution and Kurdish representation.
'Decentralisation is a key demand,' she said at the time, although Mr Al Shara has rejected the prospect of federalism.
Uniting the myriad armed factions in Syria is crucial for Mr Al Shara's consolidation of power and for stability in the country. Syria's transitional authorities have so far recruited half of a planned 200,000-man army, a military official told The National.
The move to integrate thousands of foreign fighters into the military is a step in the right direction but many risks persist, said Mona Yacoubian, senior adviser and director of the Middle East Programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
"He faces extremist threats from within as well as from ISIS, which recently claimed an attack in Suweida and continues to pose a real threat elsewhere," she said.
Dareen Khalifa, a Syria expert at the International Crisis Group, said that the primary focus for Mr Al Shara was to get the security and economic front into a national centralised government.
Authorities know that "in order to focus on the economic recovery process, they need to build enough political momentum and goodwill regionally and internationally," said Ms Khalifa.
In the coming months, Mr Al Shara will 'continue to prioritise security, working to bring more rebels and armed groups under the umbrella of the central military and government,' she added.
Sanctions relief after historic Trump talks
In a landmark diplomatic engagement in the post-Assad era, Mr Al Shara met Mr Trump in Riyadh, marking the first direct contact between the US and Syria's new leadership since Mr Al Assad was toppled. The meeting, facilitated by Saudi officials, underscored a significant shift in Washington's policy towards Syria, with Mr Trump having announced a move to ease long-standing sanctions.
The Treasury Department later issued a general licence that authorises transactions involving Mr Al Shara's government, as well as the central bank and state-owned enterprises.
The sanctions relief is contingent on Syria's commitment to several conditions – telling all foreign militants to leave, deporting what Mr Trump called Palestinian terrorists and helping the US prevent the resurgence of ISIS, the White House said.
Similarly, the EU has moved to lift sanctions on Syria, with the exception of those based on security matters.
"The US decision to suspend sanctions - although temporary - provided a boost to Al Shara's efforts, paving the way for the Europeans to follow suit. Syria is now beginning to see some resources flow in," said Ms Yacoubian.
The prospect of a sanctions-free Syria is expected to open the door for Gulf sovereign wealth funds and businesses to explore new opportunities. After Mr Trump's announcement, the UAE's DP World signed an $800 million agreement to develop and operate the port of Tartus. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have jointly pledged public salary support for Damascus.
"Ahmad Al Shara's administration has focused on securing regional and international legitimacy as a means to gain sanctions relief, viewing diplomatic normalisation as essential to reviving Syria's devastated economy," said Sanam Vakhil, director of the Middle East Programme at the London-based Chatham House.
"By re-engaging with Arab states and appealing to global powers, the regime seeks to attract investment, aid and reconstruction support to build greater internal support and stability."
Despite these developments, the international community remains cautious. Olof Skoog , deputy secretary general for political affairs at the European External Action Service, told The National that the bloc believes Syria's leaders are committed to reform, but sanctions "can be reimposed – this is not a one-way street".
'This doesn't mean that we now leave everything to go its own way. On the contrary, it gives us a platform for dialogue with the Syrian leadership, and a basis for holding them accountable,' he noted.
But for some Syrians, the effect of these changes has not yet been felt. 'Economically, nothing has changed. People are still tired, salaries are low, there's no money in the country, and there's no electricity,' said a doctor in Damascus.
Mr Alhamad hopes that in six months, "we'll begin to see change."
"Not just economic reform," he said, "but also progress towards the rule of law."
