Latest news with #AmyLv
Yahoo
30-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Iron ore pessimism subsides despite looming Simandou supply
By Amy Lv and Hongmei Li SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The prospects for iron ore prices are improving thanks to a lower than expected global surplus this year, analysts and traders say, though looming new supply from the giant Simandou project in Guinea remains a long-term downside risk for prices. Analysts and traders have cut their oversupply forecasts for this year to between 20 million and 30 million metric tons, from 50 million tons earlier this year, according to more than a dozen interviews at the flagship Singapore International Ferrous Week conference this week. That is because demand has been surprisingly resilient so far this year thanks to robust steel exports as buyers stocked up amid signs of an escalating global trade war, while cyclones disrupted supply in major producer Australia. In the first four months of 2025, China's iron ore imports slid 5.5% year-on-year while its crude steel output ticked up 0.4%, official data showed. Iron ore prices have held well above $90 per ton, below which high-cost miners struggle to break even, despite trade tensions between the world's top two economies that have fueled concerns about the outlook for steel demand. That has led analysts and traders to revise up their bearish-case pricing scenarios to between $80 and $85 per ton versus $75 or lower at the start of the year. Medium term demand for iron ore should remain firm because China's young fleet of blast furnaces will require iron ore for at least another decade, said analysts. "There won't be any big reduction in the number of blast furnaces in China by 2035 from the perspective of the life cycle of the currently running equipment, meaning that iron ore procurement will hover at a relatively high level," Long Hongming, a professor from Anhui University of Technology, told the conference on Tuesday. SIMANDOU Simandou, one of the world's largest high-grade iron ore mines, will start shipping ore in November, and its entry into the global market is expected to aggravate the supply glut starting 2026. However, the increasingly hostile attitude of Guinea's military government, which recently cancelled 129 minerals exploration permits and is locked in a standoff with Emirates Global Aluminium, raised concerns among traders, miners, analysts and steel mills at the conference in Singapore. Participants questioned whether the government's activist stance could affect how smoothly the project will be able to ramp up to its full production of 120 million tons a year. Simandou is a joint venture between Rio Tinto, the world's largest iron ore miner, and Chinese companies including China Baowu, the world's largest steelmaker by output. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Zawya
09-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
China's export controls see April rare earth shipments tumble on month
BEIJING - China's exports of rare earths in April fell 15.6% from the month before after the country, which dominates global supply, announced controls on shipments of some of the critical minerals. China's exports of the group of 17 minerals stood at 4,785 metric tons last month, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Friday. That compared to 4,566 tons in the same month in 2024, and 5,666 tons in March. Beijing announced on April 4 it was placing seven categories of medium and heavy rare earths - samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium-related items- on its export restriction list with immediate effect. Shipments of the seven rare earths placed on the export control list have ground to halt, Reuters reported last month. In the first four months of 2025, exports rose 5.1% compared to the year before to 18,962 tons, the customs data showed. China's rare earths imports last month slid nearly 4% on the year to 12,623 tons. Total imports in the first four months of this year dropped 23.6% from the year before to 37,302 tons, the customs data showed. (Reporting by Amy Lv and Lewis Jackson; Editing by Kate Mayberry)
Yahoo
08-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trade war set to slash China's steel exports, aggravating oversupply at home
By Amy Lv and Lewis Jackson BEIJING (Reuters) -China's steel exports are set to slump in the second quarter, threatening to exacerbate a supply glut at home, analysts and traders said, as the trade war and a wave of protectionism moving in its wake crimps export markets. Second-quarter shipments from the world's largest steel producer and exporter are forecast to fall by up to a fifth from the first quarter, said eight analysts and traders, who also expect exports to worsen further later in the year. That would also leave second quarter shipments lower than in the same period in 2024. Steel exports have been hit by a double blow as Washington's tariffs choke off the transshipment trade, where third countries resell Chinese steel to the U.S., and top customers like South Korea and Vietnam impose their own duties to avoid steel then being rerouted and dumped in their markets. "It's certain that total exports will slide in Q2," said a Chinese steel trader on condition of anonymity as they are not authorised to speak to media. "One can look at Middle East, Africa and South America as alternative outlets but the problem is no country can absorb such a huge capacity." China's rising steel exports have helped partly offset weak demand from the battered property sector and any decline will redirect steel back home, depressing prices, eroding steelmaker profitability and denting their appetite for inputs like iron ore. First-quarter exports hit the highest level since 2016 as mills rushed to get steel out of the country before the then-rumoured tariffs were announced. While the steel industry has long expected near-record exports to ultimately trigger some backlash, the magnitude of protectionism unleashed by the trade war between Washington and Beijing has surprised many. The Chairman of China's largest listed steelmaker, Baosteel, said late last month the sector's exports faced "unprecedented" pressure and more steel left at home would intensify oversupply. Overseas orders for a large Chinese exporter fell between 20% and 30% last month versus the month before, according to an April survey compiled by consultancy Mysteel. There are also concerns the trade war could spillover into products heavily reliant on steel, like electric vehicles or home appliances, weakening the other major source of steel demand outside the property sector, said Ge Xin, deputy director at consultancy Lange Steel. "It takes time for that impact to permeate through into the upstream steel market, likely reflected in data in the second quarter when home demand seasonally slowed, aggravating the supply glut situation."
Yahoo
28-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
China's Baosteel expects nationwide output cuts this year
By Amy Lv and Lewis Jackson BEIJING (Reuters) -China's biggest listed steelmaker, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co, said a nationwide output cut was likely this year and flagged external pressures on an industry that is already grappling with overcapacity and faltering demand. The company, known as Baosteel, is a subsidiary of the state-owned China Baowu Steel Group, the world's largest steelmaker by output. "Chances for a cut are high as it has been mentioned in the government report," Cai Yanbo, Baosteel's deputy general manager, said at the company's first-quarter results briefing on Monday when asked about market talks of cutting 50 million metric tons of Chinese crude steel output this year. Cai, however, added that he did not expect cuts to "be implemented this month or next month; we have appealed to relevant authorities to avoid one-size-fits-all approach while controlling output". An output cut of such scale would help rebalance the steel market, underpinning steel prices and weighing on prices of steelmaking ingredients. Beijing has said it plans to restructure the steel industry through output cuts, without elaborating on details such as the timing and scale for such cuts. China's steel exports in 2025 will slide by around 15 million tons amid tariff hikes and indirect steel exports will be slashed by 20 million tons, according to Zou Jinxin, Baosteel's chairman. Exports of manufactured goods such as containers, vehicles, and engineering machinery are typically classified as indirect steel exports. Zou said he expects Beijing to roll out more stimulus measures to counter external shocks. China's steel exports hit a nine-year high of 110.72 million tons in 2024. Baosteel's steel exports hit a record high at 6.07 million tons last year, but the company did not specify its 2025 target. Domestic steel consumption in 2025 will fall by 2%, Zou added. Baosteel reported a 26.4% annual increase in its first-quarter net profit, helped by lower costs. Shares at Baosteel jumped by 5.7% to 7.02 yuan ($0.9622). ($1 = 7.2956 Chinese yuan)
Yahoo
28-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
China's Baosteel expects nationwide output cuts this year
By Amy Lv and Lewis Jackson BEIJING (Reuters) -China's biggest listed steelmaker, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co, said a nationwide output cut was likely this year and flagged external pressures on an industry that is already grappling with overcapacity and faltering demand. The company, known as Baosteel, is a subsidiary of the state-owned China Baowu Steel Group, the world's largest steelmaker by output. "Chances for a cut are high as it has been mentioned in the government report," Cai Yanbo, Baosteel's deputy general manager, said at the company's first-quarter results briefing on Monday when asked about market talks of cutting 50 million metric tons of Chinese crude steel output this year. Cai, however, added that he did not expect cuts to "be implemented this month or next month; we have appealed to relevant authorities to avoid one-size-fits-all approach while controlling output". An output cut of such scale would help rebalance the steel market, underpinning steel prices and weighing on prices of steelmaking ingredients. Beijing has said it plans to restructure the steel industry through output cuts, without elaborating on details such as the timing and scale for such cuts. China's steel exports in 2025 will slide by around 15 million tons amid tariff hikes and indirect steel exports will be slashed by 20 million tons, according to Zou Jinxin, Baosteel's chairman. Exports of manufactured goods such as containers, vehicles, and engineering machinery are typically classified as indirect steel exports. Zou said he expects Beijing to roll out more stimulus measures to counter external shocks. China's steel exports hit a nine-year high of 110.72 million tons in 2024. Baosteel's steel exports hit a record high at 6.07 million tons last year, but the company did not specify its 2025 target. Domestic steel consumption in 2025 will fall by 2%, Zou added. Baosteel reported a 26.4% annual increase in its first-quarter net profit, helped by lower costs. Shares at Baosteel jumped by 5.7% to 7.02 yuan ($0.9622). ($1 = 7.2956 Chinese yuan) (Reporting by Amy Lv and Lewis Jackson; Editing by Himani Sarkar)
