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Zawya
08-04-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Tariff-whipped Wall Street wonders: will Trump blink?
NEW YORK - Investors are trying to game out how much tolerance U.S. President Donald Trump has for stock market losses after his latest tariff policies ignited a more than 10% wipeout on Wall Street, with some still holding out hope of eventual relief. A so-called "Trump put" - the option market equivalent of a presidential backstop for equities - underpinned Trump's first term, as he frequently cited stock market strength as proof his policies were working. Over the course of his first presidency the S&P 500 benchmark rose 68% and scaled record highs, while Trump cheered its progress, tweeting more than 150 times about the stock market. This time around, hope that such a Trump Put still exists is evaporating, or at the least, investors are coming around to the view that Trump is much more inclined to ride out sharp falls. The S&P and Nasdaq are down over 15% and 20% since his inauguration in January respectively. "The whole notion of tariffs and trade policy has been such an integral part of Donald Trump's psyche, I don't see it abandoned," said Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investments, who said any pain level likely to cause Trump to change course remained a long way away. Previous assumptions that Trump's pro-business agenda would buoy risk assets similarly had already been fading as his trade policies rattled investors over the past few weeks. But the more-aggressive-than-anticipated tariffs unveiled on April 2 deepened the market selloff, leaving investors questioning whether the Trump put was gone, or might eventually reappear through tariff rollbacks after any trade deals. For Bob Elliott, chief executive officer and chief investment officer of Unlimited Funds, the selloff still had a long way to go before any policy turnaround. "It takes 20-30% declines in stocks to get there. So the decline so far is not big enough," he said. Some were more hopeful the market fall could eventually induce a change of course. "I don't think (Trump) is going to be highly tolerant of massive stock market declines - he'll see his popularity tank, and it will endanger his whole agenda,' said Kevin Philip, partner at Bel Air Investment Advisors. "I don't see any way out of this if he doesn't come up with deals or reasons to change course.' The huge market falls - not seen since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 - even caused speculation online that Trump was intentionally "crashing" the market to force the U.S. Federal Reserve to lower interest rates while making stocks more affordable to middle-class investors. Trump on Friday retweeted a social media post bearing the caption "Trump is Purposely CRASHING The Market" and featuring images of the president pointing at a large downward red arrow and of him signing executive orders at the White House. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday, Trump said he was not intentionally engineering a market selloff and the rout was the result of a "medicine" needed to fix the U.S. trade deficit. Trump and his team have said their policies may cause short-term pain but will eventually revive manufacturing and spur growth. On Friday he told investors pouring money into the United States that his policies would never change. White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement to Reuters: "Just as it did during President Trump's first term, the administration's America First economic agenda of tariffs, deregulation, tax cuts, and the unleashing of American energy will restore American Greatness from Main Street to Wall Street.' PAIN LEVEL Some investors fear that weakening consumer confidence, an escalating trade war, and rising price pressures could deal a harsh and lasting blow to the economy, regardless of any potential economic upside down the line. For Brian Bethune, an economist at Boston College, the disruption caused by the tariffs was too abrupt to allow U.S. businesses to soften the blow, despite their resilience. "You're putting so many sandbags on the balloon, it's going to come back down to earth with a thud," Bethune said. In the two sessions after the tariff decision was unveiled on Wednesday, the S&P 500 has tumbled 10.5%, erasing nearly $5 trillion in market value, marking its most significant two-day loss since March 2020. On Monday, the S&P was down 0.12%. NO CAVALRY Hopes that the market could be propped up by actions by the U.S. Federal Reserve have also taken a knock. Trump on Friday called on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, saying it was the "perfect time" to do so. But stock losses deepened past 5% after Powell on Friday warned that the new tariffs would likely push inflation higher while slowing economic growth, suggesting the Fed was unlikely to rush in to cut rates. "The market is still digesting the great deal of uncertainty and I think it's also digesting the fact that both Trump and Powell have made it clear that the cavalry is not coming to immediately cause things to bounce back up," said David Seif, chief economist for developed markets at Nomura in New York. Rising prices could reduce the Fed's ability to take supportive actions as it has in previous market downturns or if economic conditions deteriorated significantly, analysts said. This could take off the table a so-called "Fed put," or a perceived tendency of the central bank to run to the aid of financial markets. 'Who blinks first? The Fed or President Trump? The Fed has made it clear that with inflation where it is and unemployment where it is, (they're) comfortable without doing anything right now,' said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha. 'We think Washington likely has to blink first to present some type of positive news." (Reporting by Davide Barbuscia, Carolina Mandl, Isla Binnie, Ross Kerber, Stephen Culp, editing by Megan Davies and Deepa Babington)
Reuters
07-04-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Tariff-whipped Wall Street wonders: will Trump blink?
NEW YORK, April 7 (Reuters) - Investors are trying to game out how much tolerance U.S. President Donald Trump has for stock market losses after his latest tariff policies ignited a more than 10% wipeout on Wall Street, with some still holding out hope of eventual relief. A so-called "Trump put" - the option market equivalent of a presidential backstop for equities - underpinned Trump's first term, as he frequently cited stock market strength as proof his policies were working. Over the course of his first presidency the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab benchmark rose 68% and scaled record highs, while Trump cheered its progress, tweeting more than 150 times about the stock market. This time around, hope that such a Trump Put still exists is evaporating, or at the least, investors are coming around to the view that Trump is much more inclined to ride out sharp falls. The S&P (.SPX), opens new tab and Nasdaq (.IXIC), opens new tab are down over 15% and 20% since his inauguration in January respectively. "The whole notion of tariffs and trade policy has been such an integral part of Donald Trump's psyche, I don't see it abandoned," said Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investments, who said any pain level likely to cause Trump to change course remained a long way away. Previous assumptions that Trump's pro-business agenda would buoy risk assets similarly had already been fading as his trade policies rattled investors over the past few weeks. But the more-aggressive-than-anticipated tariffs unveiled on April 2 deepened the market selloff, leaving investors questioning whether the Trump put was gone, or might eventually reappear through tariff rollbacks after any trade deals. For Bob Elliott, chief executive officer and chief investment officer of Unlimited Funds, the selloff still had a long way to go before any policy turnaround. "It takes 20-30% declines in stocks to get there. So the decline so far is not big enough," he said. Some were more hopeful the market fall could eventually induce a change of course. "I don't think (Trump) is going to be highly tolerant of massive stock market declines - he'll see his popularity tank, and it will endanger his whole agenda,' said Kevin Philip, partner at Bel Air Investment Advisors. "I don't see any way out of this if he doesn't come up with deals or reasons to change course.' The huge market falls - not seen since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 - even caused speculation online that Trump was intentionally "crashing" the market to force the U.S. Federal Reserve to lower interest rates while making stocks more affordable to middle-class investors. Trump on Friday retweeted a social media post bearing the caption "Trump is Purposely CRASHING The Market" and featuring images of the president pointing at a large downward red arrow and of him signing executive orders at the White House. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday, Trump said he was not intentionally engineering a market selloff and the rout was the result of a "medicine" needed to fix the U.S. trade deficit. Trump and his team have said their policies may cause short-term pain but will eventually revive manufacturing and spur growth. On Friday he told investors pouring money into the United States that his policies would never change. White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement to Reuters: "Just as it did during President Trump's first term, the administration's America First economic agenda of tariffs, deregulation, tax cuts, and the unleashing of American energy will restore American Greatness from Main Street to Wall Street.' PAIN LEVEL Some investors fear that weakening consumer confidence, an escalating trade war, and rising price pressures could deal a harsh and lasting blow to the economy, regardless of any potential economic upside down the line. For Brian Bethune, an economist at Boston College, the disruption caused by the tariffs was too abrupt to allow U.S. businesses to soften the blow, despite their resilience. "You're putting so many sandbags on the balloon, it's going to come back down to earth with a thud," Bethune said. In the two sessions after the tariff decision was unveiled on Wednesday, the S&P 500 has tumbled 10.5%, erasing nearly $5 trillion in market value, marking its most significant two-day loss since March 2020. On Monday, the S&P was down 0.12%. NO CAVALRY Hopes that the market could be propped up by actions by the U.S. Federal Reserve have also taken a knock. Trump on Friday called on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, saying it was the "perfect time" to do so. But stock losses deepened past 5% after Powell on Friday warned that the new tariffs would likely push inflation higher while slowing economic growth, suggesting the Fed was unlikely to rush in to cut rates. "The market is still digesting the great deal of uncertainty and I think it's also digesting the fact that both Trump and Powell have made it clear that the cavalry is not coming to immediately cause things to bounce back up," said David Seif, chief economist for developed markets at Nomura in New York. Rising prices could reduce the Fed's ability to take supportive actions as it has in previous market downturns or if economic conditions deteriorated significantly, analysts said. This could take off the table a so-called "Fed put," or a perceived tendency of the central bank to run to the aid of financial markets. 'Who blinks first? The Fed or President Trump? The Fed has made it clear that with inflation where it is and unemployment where it is, (they're) comfortable without doing anything right now,' said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha. 'We think Washington likely has to blink first to present some type of positive news."
Associated Press
14-03-2025
- Business
- Associated Press
Angeles Investments Named a 2025 Coalition Greenwich Best Investment Consultant for Eighth Consecutive Year
SANTA MONICA, Calif., March 14, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Angeles Investments, a multi-asset investment management firm with approximately $6.8 billion in discretionary assets and $31.5 billion in advisory assets1, has been recognized by Coalition Greenwich as a 2025 Best Investment Consultant among midsize investment consultants for institutional Investors. This is the firm's eighth consecutive year achieving this accolade. Crisil Coalition Greenwich provides strategic benchmarking, analytics and insights to the financial services industry and seeks to identify firms that distinguish themselves from competitors by delivering superior levels of client service to help institutions achieve their investment goals and objectives. Key categories where Angeles scored very highly relative to our peer competitors included provision of proactive advice and innovative ideas, understanding client goals and objectives, satisfaction with managers recommended, communication of philosophy and investment beliefs, responsiveness to requests, and among others. 'It is an honor be recognized again by our clients and for the 8th consecutive year as a Coalition Greenwich Best Investment Consultant. Such recognition is testament to the depth and quality of the partnerships Angeles has developed with our clients over many years,' said Howard Perlow, Co-Founder and CEO of Angeles. 'As a firm, we view such partnerships as extending beyond asset management. We view ourselves as our client's full-service investment office and it is a privilege to provide support and resources as critical issues are tackled and key decisions are made.' Coalition Greenwich's 53nd annual U.S. Institutional Investors research included voluntary responses from 699 individuals from 563 of the largest tax-exempt funds in the United States, including corporate, public, union and endowment and foundation funds, with either pension or investment pool assets greater than $150 million.2 About Angeles Angeles Investments is an investment management firm that serves as the Outsourced Chief Investment Office (OCIO) for institutions and nonprofits, including higher education, independent schools, and corporations, and advises distinguished investors through its wealth management platform. As fiduciaries, we are dedicated to creating the best outcomes for our clients through asset allocation and high conviction investments across alternative and traditional asset classes delivered through a full-service investment office. Angeles was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Santa Monica, CA. 1 As of December 31st, 2024 2 Angeles does not pay to have its clients participate in the study. The results may not be representative of any one client's experience because the results represent an average of all of the experiences of responding clients only.
Yahoo
10-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are plummeting after Trump doesn't rule out a recession
Stocks fell sharply on Monday as Wall Street's fears tied to President Donald Trump's tariffs continue to pressure the market and investors wait for new economic data, especially inflation on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped by 325 points, or about 0.8%, in mid-morning trading. But the other major market indexes saw much steeper losses. The S&P 500 fell 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged 3.3%. Last week was the stock market's worst in two years. 'Uncertainty about US trade policy and weaker economic data are leading to investor caution,' Angeles Investments CIO Michael Rosen told Quartz. They 'are rotating from previous market leaders to companies and markets that have lagged. Investors should diversify portfolios out of the US as a weaker dollar favors non-US assets.' The so-called Magnificent Seven tech stocks also lost ground. Tesla (TSLA) stock dropped 12%, erasing its post-election (NVDA) stock was off about 4.3%, bringing its slide so for this year to about 22%, amid tariff and recession fears. The president's sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China last week — with the promise of additional duties in the near future — rattled stock markets and drove pushback from business groups. Although some exemptions and delays were announced later in the week, Wall Street's worries weren't assuaged. Goldman Sachs (GS) said Friday that the likelihood of a recession within the next 12 months has increased from 15% to 20%. If the White House continues with additional tariffs, the bank said the risk of a recession would increase. On Sunday, Trump was asked by Fox News (FOXA) host Maria Bartiromo if he was expecting a recession this year. The president didn't rule it out as a potential outcome. 'I hate to predict things like that,' Trump said. 'There is a period of transition, because what we're doing is very big. We're bringing wealth back to America. That's a big thing, and there are always periods of, it takes a little time. It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.' Cabinet officials have largely brushed off the market's decline, even as they acknowledge some signs of weakness in the economy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that the market has 'just become hooked' on government spending and that 'there's going to be a detox period.' Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the U.S. would stick to its future tariff plans, said he wouldn't bet on a recession, and said the stock market doesn't affect federal policy. —With reporting by Josh Fellman For the latest news, Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. Sign in to access your portfolio
