Latest news with #AnkitBihani
Time of India
13 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Indian Banks' earnings growth forecast halved amid economic caution and high deposit costs
Mumbai: The pace of earnings growth could halve at Indian banks, which together make up about a third of the Nifty's weighting, with experts attributing the foreign funds-heavy sector's deceleration in FY26 to a circumspect economy, narrower core profits, muted credit demand, and persistently high deposit costs. "The banking sector's earnings growth has witnessed successive moderation-from 39.3% in FY23 to 12.8% in FY25," said Nitin Aggarwal, head, BFSI, Motilal Oswal Securities. "In FY26, we estimate earnings growth to moderate to 6.5%, with the first half being more muted. We also estimate FY27 earnings growth to recover to 16.1%." by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Bartellah: Unsold Furniture Liquidation 2024 (Prices May Surprise You) Unsold Furniture | Search Ads Learn More Undo Some analysts have pencilled in aggregate growth at 2%, with policy rates dropping a full percentage point in four months, prompting an immediately lower pricing for a majority of loans tied to the external gauge. Most analysts, however, expect earnings growth in the lending sector to rebound in FY27. Agencies "We expect earnings growth for our covered banks to remain subdued at 2% on year in FY26 and improve to 16% on year in FY27," Ankit Bihani, associate, Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities (India), said. "Earnings cuts have been sharper for MFI lenders like Bandhan and IndusInd Bank. FY26-27 EPS cuts for large private banks have been 0-8% and PSU banks 6-10%, led by moderation of NIMs amid the rate cut cycle." The recent deceleration in credit growth and the downgrade in earnings growth is the result of RBI's calibrated actions to rein in unsecured consumer credit which has triggered a slowdown in personal and services credit, which together account for over 70% of the total growth slowdown. Credit growth has dropped sharply from 16% a year ago to under 10% now. Live Events While bank credit to NBFCs, down to 3% on year, has driven much of the decline in services credit, a drop in unsecured credit growth has also weighed on the expansion in personal loans. Tight liquidity in the system, due to persistent forex outflows, continued well into March 2025, further constraining banks' lending capacity. A weakened risk appetite among banks, driven by emerging asset quality concerns in microfinance and credit card book, prompted banks to pull back on credit growth toward the latter half of FY25. "We forecast a rebound to 13% in FY26, around 100 bps ahead of consensus, supported by a favorable base, improving demand from consumers, NBFCs, and the agri segment, and aided by both rate cuts, liquidity surplus, CRR easing and fiscal measures like budget tax cut stimuli," said Pranav Gundlapalle, head of India financials at Bernstein.
Economic Times
13 hours ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Indian Banks' earnings growth forecast halved amid economic caution and high deposit costs
Mumbai: The pace of earnings growth could halve at Indian banks, which together make up about a third of the Nifty's weighting, with experts attributing the foreign funds-heavy sector's deceleration in FY26 to a circumspect economy, narrower core profits, muted credit demand, and persistently high deposit costs. ADVERTISEMENT "The banking sector's earnings growth has witnessed successive moderation-from 39.3% in FY23 to 12.8% in FY25," said Nitin Aggarwal, head, BFSI, Motilal Oswal Securities. "In FY26, we estimate earnings growth to moderate to 6.5%, with the first half being more muted. We also estimate FY27 earnings growth to recover to 16.1%." Some analysts have pencilled in aggregate growth at 2%, with policy rates dropping a full percentage point in four months, prompting an immediately lower pricing for a majority of loans tied to the external gauge. Most analysts, however, expect earnings growth in the lending sector to rebound in FY27. "We expect earnings growth for our covered banks to remain subdued at 2% on year in FY26 and improve to 16% on year in FY27," Ankit Bihani, associate, Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities (India), said. "Earnings cuts have been sharper for MFI lenders like Bandhan and IndusInd Bank. FY26-27 EPS cuts for large private banks have been 0-8% and PSU banks 6-10%, led by moderation of NIMs amid the rate cut cycle."The recent deceleration in credit growth and the downgrade in earnings growth is the result of RBI's calibrated actions to rein in unsecured consumer credit which has triggered a slowdown in personal and services credit, which together account for over 70% of the total growth slowdown. Credit growth has dropped sharply from 16% a year ago to under 10% bank credit to NBFCs, down to 3% on year, has driven much of the decline in services credit, a drop in unsecured credit growth has also weighed on the expansion in personal loans. Tight liquidity in the system, due to persistent forex outflows, continued well into March 2025, further constraining banks' lending capacity. ADVERTISEMENT A weakened risk appetite among banks, driven by emerging asset quality concerns in microfinance and credit card book, prompted banks to pull back on credit growth toward the latter half of FY25. "We forecast a rebound to 13% in FY26, around 100 bps ahead of consensus, supported by a favorable base, improving demand from consumers, NBFCs, and the agri segment, and aided by both rate cuts, liquidity surplus, CRR easing and fiscal measures like budget tax cut stimuli," said Pranav Gundlapalle, head of India financials at Bernstein. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Mint
11-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
Asset management stocks rebound as AMFI data shows record AUM; Nomura bullish on HDFC AMC, NAM
Shares of asset management companies (AMCs) staged a modest recovery on June 11, 2025, after facing some profit booking in the previous session. The rebound came even as equity mutual fund inflows fell to a 12-month low in May. The data released by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) showed a mixed picture—while equity inflows slipped sharply, overall assets under management (AUM) hit an all-time high. The sector also received a boost from Nomura's reaffirmed bullish stance on leading players HDFC AMC and Nippon Life India Asset Management (NAM India), citing strong growth in AUM and profitability. HDFC AMC rose nearly a percent after dropping 2 percent in the prior session. Similarly, UTI AMC gained 0.8 percent, recovering from a 1.4 percent decline on June 10. However, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC (ABSL AMC) remained under slight pressure, trading flat to marginally lower. Despite short-term volatility, AMC stocks have shown strong momentum in recent weeks—UTI AMC and ABSL AMC have surged up to 20 percent in the last one month, while HDFC AMC has gained 15 percent over the same period. The initial decline in AMC stocks came after AMFI reported a steep 22 percent drop in equity mutual fund inflows for May, totaling ₹ 19,013 crore, the lowest in a year. However, analysts view this drop as a moment of consolidation rather than cause for concern. Anoop Vijaykumar, Head of Equity at Capitalmind MF, said, 'Even with a 22 percent month-on-month dip, ₹ 19,000-plus crore of fresh equity money marks the 51st straight month of positive flows—a remarkable show of investor discipline since March 2021.' One of the biggest positives from the AMFI data was the continued strength in Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs). Monthly SIP contributions rose marginally to hit a new high of ₹ 26,688 crore, marking a 28 percent year-on-year increase. The rising SIP numbers suggest that retail investors continue to favour disciplined, long-term investing strategies. Moreover, the mutual fund industry's total AUM climbed to a record ₹ 72.20 lakh crore in May, up from ₹ 69.99 lakh crore in April. This milestone is seen as an indicator of the deepening of retail participation in capital markets and the ongoing shift of household savings toward financial assets. Overall, the industry registered net inflows of ₹ 29,108 crore during the month. Adding to the positive sentiment, Japanese brokerage Nomura reiterated its bullish outlook on HDFC AMC and NAM India in a report released on June 10. The brokerage maintained 'Buy' ratings on both stocks, driven by expectations of continued growth in AUM and operating profits. HDFC AMC and NAM have rallied 13 percent and 16 percent respectively in the past month, outperforming the broader market even as overall equity inflows slowed. Nomura analysts Ankit Bihani and Parth Desai highlighted the resilience of SIP flows and improving operating leverage as key tailwinds for these companies. The brokerage has set a price target of ₹ 4,272 for HDFC AMC, supported by its dominance in the high-margin equity AUM segment. For NAM India, the target price stands at ₹ 624, driven by cost efficiency and scalable operations. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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Business Standard
11-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Nomura bets on HDFC AMC, NAM amid strong AUM, operating profit growth hopes
Nomura on AMCs: Japan-based brokerage firm Nomura has reiterated its bullish stance on HDFC Asset Management Company (HDFC AMC) and Nippon Life India Asset Management (NAM India), citing robust growth in assets under management (AUM) and healthy operating profit. 'We prefer HDFC AMC (HDFC AMC IN, Buy) and NAM (NAM IN, Buy), due to their strong AUM and operating profit growth outlook,' said Ankit Bihani and Parth Desai, research analysts at Nomura, in a note dated June 10. Nomura has retained its target prices for both stocks—₹4,272 for HDFC AMC and ₹624 for NAM India. Notably, Over the past month, shares of HDFC AMC and NAM have rallied 13 per cent and 16 per cent, respectively, BSE data showed. The brokerage highlighted steady systematic investment plan (SIP) flows and a healthy rise in SIP accounts despite a broader moderation in mutual fund inflows during May 2025. Catch Stock Market Updates Today LIVE 'Monthly equity mutual fund (MF) inflows (excluding arbitrage) moderated to ₹24,200 crore, down 10 per cent month-on-month (M-o-M) in May,' Nomura analysts said. However, the brokerage pointed out that the recent surge in new fund offerings (NFOs) helped partially offset this moderation, with NFO inflows jumping to a four-month high of ₹3,590 crore, compared to just ₹170 crore in April. Sectoral and thematic fund NFOs alone contributed ₹1,790 crore, indicating strong retail interest in niche investment ideas. Despite the decline in headline equity inflows, SIP inflows remained steady at ₹26,700 crore, flat on a monthly basis but up 28 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y). SIP AUM grew to ₹14.6 trillion (up 27 per cent Y-o-Y, up 5 per cent M-o-M), reflecting continued investor confidence in long-term wealth creation through disciplined investing. The number of contributing SIP accounts also rose to 8.56 crore, up 2 per cent M-o-M. The SIP stoppage ratio, a key metric indicating account discontinuation, began to normalise in May and stood at around 72 per cent, after a spike in April linked to regulatory compliance checks. However, inflows across major equity fund categories declined. Large-cap funds saw the sharpest fall at 53 per cent M-o-M, with net inflows of ₹1,300 crore. Small-cap and mid-cap funds also registered a slowdown, drawing ₹3,200 crore and ₹2,800 crore, respectively, while flexi-cap fund inflows dropped to ₹6,800 crore. Sectoral and thematic funds, by contrast, remained steady with ₹2,100 crore in inflows, and large+mid-cap funds saw a marginal rise to ₹2,700 crore. On the debt side, mutual funds witnessed a sharp fall in inflows to ₹20,700 crore in May from ₹43,800 crore in April. Liquid funds, which had seen a massive surge in April, reversed course with outflows of ₹37,100 crore. The AUM for debt and liquid funds stood at ₹8.9 trillion and ₹8.8 trillion, respectively. Passive schemes were also hit, with inflows dropping sharply to ₹5,500 crore from ₹20,200 crore the previous month. Total mutual fund industry AUM reached approximately ₹72 trillion in May, up 23 per cent Y-o-Y and 3 per cent M-o-M. Of this, equity AUM constituted around ₹42 trillion, contributing 58 per cent to total industry AUM — a 118 basis points (bps) increase from a year ago. That said, despite near-term fluctuations in flows, Nomura analysts' conviction in these asset managers reflects confidence in their ability to sustain growth, ride structural industry tailwinds, and deliver consistent performance for investors.
South China Morning Post
18-02-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
‘All our savings': Indian investors duped out of US$100 million in Ponzi scheme
Published: 4:28pm, 18 Feb 2025 Thousands of investors in India are scrambling to recoup nearly US$100 million after they were caught in a Ponzi scheme that duped them into making short-term investments promising high returns, according to a police statement and multiple victims. Indian police arrested two individuals on Saturday after a case was filed against Falcon Invoice Discounting, which promised returns of up to 22 per cent by claiming to connect depositors with the likes of Amazon and biscuit maker Britannia. Falcon collected 17 billion rupees (about US$196 million) from nearly 7,000 investors since 2021 but has repaid only half, according to a statement from police in the southern state of Telangana. Ankit Bihani, a New Delhi-based jeweller, met with 50 other investors last week to discuss measures, including legal remedies, to recoup the collective 500 million rupees they said they had lost. 'Most of them [investors] got to know about the investing platform through social media and invested in it,' Bihani said. Falcon Invoice Discounting, which claimed to connect depositors with Amazon, has left investors scrambling to recoup their losses. Photo: AFP Falcon used the money from new investors to pay out older ones and diverted the remaining funds to various shell entities, the police said. Authorities are hunting for Amardeep Kumar, Falcon's founder and the main accused, a source said.
