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Risks in agri sector: FY26 growth target challenging: SBP
KARACHI: The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), in a briefing to analysts, has said that the GDP growth target of 4.2 percent for FY26 is considered achievable but remains challenging, primarily due to risks in the agriculture sector.
According to Arif Habib Limited Research, in the Analyst Briefing, it was mentioned the projected growth is expected to be driven by industrial and services sectors, buoyed by robust import volumes, a rebound in auto sales, rising capacity utilization, improved employment sentiment, and a Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) consistently above 50 since December 2024.
Moreover, Governor SBP Jameel Ahmed informed that the SBP will release its own assessment in July, which will include projections for GDP, inflation, current account, and FX reserves. FY25 debt repayments amounted to $25.8 billion are almost fully settled, only $400 million pending. FY26 debt servicing to remain similar; exact details will be shared in the next MPC.
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The SBP anticipates a current account surplus for FY25, with improved external buffers going into FY26. FY25 remittances projected at $38 billion for FY25, up from $31.3 billion last fiscal year. The $7 billion jump is largely due to a one-time shift from informal to formal channels. Incentives are being designed in coordination with banks and government to maintain the formal inflow trend.
The OMO stock increased mainly due to two reasons higher currency in circulation during Eid and secondly time lag between debt repayments and incoming inflows. However, OMO levels are expected to decline in the coming weeks as inflows materialize.
It was informed that the SBP's profit of Rs 2.4 trillion will be transferred to the government after audit and Board approval in early FY26. This figure was validated by SBP and included in the FY26 budget. Since the 2022 SBP Act amendment, profit is transferred annually, not quarterly. The SBP confirms it is on track to meet the June NIR target under the IMF program. Additionally, the Dec'24 target was also met with a wide margin. The SBP mentioned that its baseline oil price assumption is USD 75/barrel.
According to Topline Research for the next fiscal year (FY26), Governor SBP Jameel Ahmed mentioned that external debt repayments will be more or less the same.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
